The Steelers were supposed to win, they won, and they covered the spread. They need one more win over the lowly Cleveland Browns to secure the #2 seed in the playoffs and a first round bye. They looked incredibly effective in the passing game, Ben Roethlisberger went his second game in a row without an interception, and they generally looked like they could do whatever they wanted on offense.
Except score in the red zone, especially in goal-to-go situations. They've scored touchdowns only 44 percent of the time in the red zone this season and that's not going to be good enough against better teams. They need to come out of the red zone with touchdowns instead of field goals.
In my mind, this comes back to lack of creativity in terms of play calling and lack of a power running game. The fact that the Steelers power running game kinda sucks really can't be fixed at this point, but it can't be helped or masked by more creative play calling. Getting Ike Redmond the ball -- either in the passing game or the running game -- when they get inside the 20 is a good start. More screen passes and fewer quarterback draws. Fewer play calls that send everyone into the end zone; since the end zone is the last line of defense, everyone on defense is usually in there, so it's difficult to throw the ball straight into the end zone, but it's relatively easy to throw the ball to a guy who's a few yards outside the end zone and watch him run in.
In general -- and this came out against the Jets -- they've just been running their standard offense all season and haven't adjusted for down, distance, opponent, or made in-game or halftime adjustments. Sometimes the offense works, sometimes it doesn't. Well, that's fine if you have 16 games to tinker with, but in single elimination the level of urgency is raised. I think that the Steelers need to show more urgency and creativity on offense (and maybe a little on defense) to make a deep playoff run. They're obviously not as good as the Patriots, but I think they're definitely the second-best team in the AFC. If someone knocks the Pats off or if the coaching staff comes up with a great game plan when the Steelers face off against the Patriots again -- remember, the Colts trounced the Steelers in their 2005 regular season meeting, but the Steelers came back strong and won the 2005 Divisional Playoff match-up.
But, they've got ten days, a Browns game, then a bye week to work on that, so it might work out OK.
The other thing they need to keep tabs on is the ball. The ball is fairly important. Roethlisberger had two fumbles against the Jets and two against the Panthers. That can't continue into the playoffs. God help me, I agree with Joe Theisman when he says, "The Steelers need to protect the football if they're going to advance in the playoffs. Right now, they're not." It hasn't happened often -- if it's ever happened -- that I've agreed with Joe Theisman, so that must be pretty important.
I saw Aaron Smith on the sidelines on Thursday night. I'm not sure that dropping him back into the starting line-up is the best move at this point. Ziggy Hood is playing great football and Smith -- even if he's the greatest 3-4 defensive end of this century -- hasn't played in a long time. Maybe involve Smith on first and second down and make him part of a rotation, but I don't think he needs to be in there full time anymore. I know it's blasphemy to say that, but I think it's true.
The same is not true for Ryan Mundy and Troy Polamalu. Troy needs to get back in there ASAP, but I don't think he's coming back until the playoffs.
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Steelers-Panthers Preview
I have to say that I'm not sure how to be clever about this. It's a game that the Steelers have to win, it's a game that the Steelers can win, and it's a game that the Steelers should win. If they're going to be the #2 seed in the AFC, this is a game they cannot honk.
The Carolina Panthers are like the Oakland Raiders if the Raiders had a less dynamic running back, a crappier quarterback, and an older defense. This is a bad team. At the NFL level, everyone is talented. I've covered this. We know this. But, the Panthers are less talented than every other team in the league.
I've watched bits and pieces of some of their games throughout the season and what I've witnessed has ranged from horrendous to respectable. I haven't seen them play good football at any point this season. I saw the Bengals, Bills, Buccaneers, and Browns play good football at various points during the season before they played the Steelers. They are all decent teams and have the potential to be good. Carolina doesn't seem to have a ceiling that even reaches as high as good.
I know that the Steelers are going to play this game on four days rest. But, so are the Panthers. It's not like they've had the past three weeks off to rest and prepare. Sure, the Steelers are only 4-3 at home, but... this is a pretty bad team that they're playing on Thursday night.
I think this is a game that they should dominate, but I'm not sure that this is a game that they will dominate. For this reason, I can't predict them to cover.
Prediction:
Steelers 24, Panthers 13
The Carolina Panthers are like the Oakland Raiders if the Raiders had a less dynamic running back, a crappier quarterback, and an older defense. This is a bad team. At the NFL level, everyone is talented. I've covered this. We know this. But, the Panthers are less talented than every other team in the league.
I've watched bits and pieces of some of their games throughout the season and what I've witnessed has ranged from horrendous to respectable. I haven't seen them play good football at any point this season. I saw the Bengals, Bills, Buccaneers, and Browns play good football at various points during the season before they played the Steelers. They are all decent teams and have the potential to be good. Carolina doesn't seem to have a ceiling that even reaches as high as good.
I know that the Steelers are going to play this game on four days rest. But, so are the Panthers. It's not like they've had the past three weeks off to rest and prepare. Sure, the Steelers are only 4-3 at home, but... this is a pretty bad team that they're playing on Thursday night.
I think this is a game that they should dominate, but I'm not sure that this is a game that they will dominate. For this reason, I can't predict them to cover.
Prediction:
Steelers 24, Panthers 13
Monday, December 20, 2010
Steelers-Jets Review
This was a tough game to get a handle on, because there was good, bad, and ugly involved.
The Good:
I was on this statistics website the other day and found some interesting stuff...
The Good:
- Even though the Steelers lost, they still qualified for the playoffs. This team is going to the playoffs. OK? They're going to the playoffs.
- The hated Ravens won, but they're still in second place behind the Steelers for the division lead. That means that the Steelers are currently the #2 seed, with the #3 and #4 seeds both holding six losses. That means that it would take a pretty serious meltdown by the Steelers for them to lose that seeding -- and both six loss teams would need to win out.
- It was a great game to watch and the Steelers -- who had no business still being in the game after that safety -- almost pulled out the victory.
- You have to admire that Sanchez keeper on fourth and one, even if it meant the Steelers let up a touchdown. That was just a great call.
- Blitz pick-up. I was very impressed for most of the day on how well everyone on the offensive line and the running back kept in to block did in this area.
- With the Sanchez keeper and a few other plays, the Jets used a lot of misdirection and brought basically everything but the kitchen sink on defense. The Steelers... not so much. They kept Roethlisberger in the shotgun to give him more time to throw and ran effectively out of that formation (more on this in a moment), but they really didn't get too fancy. If they're saving the "sizzle" for the playoffs, that's fine. But, they can't expect to win many postseason games with a totally vanilla approach on offense and defense.
- I didn't like the fact that they handed the ball to Mewelde Moore when they were backed up against their own goal line, which led to the safety. I actually liked the call -- they were running out of the shotgun effectively all day -- but I didn't like the fact that they handed the ball to Moore, not Mendenhall. And, to clarify, they did not run a draw or a delayed draw on that play. It was a handoff from shotgun formation. A draw play -- especially a delayed draw -- is blocked like a passing play and the quarterback waits for a little bit to hand the ball off to the tailback, hoping to take the defensive line out of the play because they're trying to get upfield. That was a straight handoff. I watched the replay several times. It was a good call, but a bad personnel decision. Mendenhall had been making guys miss in the backfield all day and broke a couple of big runs off those misses. He should have had the ball, not Moore.
- Zero turnovers forced, one sack for zero yards lost. They need to do better than that in bigger games. The team that wins the turnover battle wins the game in the playoffs and this team is going to the playoffs.
- Too many pass attempts deep to the perimeter. There are stats to follow later. But, it looks like Roethlisberger can't plant and throw deep to the sidelines. He's been off target on those passes all season, even before he hurt his foot and his ankle. This either needs to be improved or it needs to stop.
- Matt Spaeth. I don't want Heath Miller to rush back, but Spaeth really sucks. He was targeted eight times and only caught three balls for 27 yards, dropping 15 passes by unofficial count. My best guess is that the Jets just left him open, figuring that he'd either drop the ball or that there was no way on God's green Earth that Matt Spaeth was going to beat them.
- Roethlisberger fumbled twice. He didn't lose either fumble, but that didn't make it any less scary.
- Not sure where this belongs, but I don't remember thinking, "If only Troy were in the game, he would have totally made a play there." Maybe part of the awesome of Troy is that you never know when he's going to do something totally amazing, but I don't think his absence is why the Steelers lost.
I was on this statistics website the other day and found some interesting stuff...
- This should come as a surprise to no one, but you can't run on the Steelers in any direction. Up the middle, off guard, off tackle, to the outside. Can't run anywhere. Usually a run defense has a weakness, but the Steelers don't seem to have one. Except on the Sanchez keeper.
- Bryant McFadden has been targeted to the short area -- passes traveling one yard to ten yards in the air -- on his side of the field more than any other cornerback in the league. He's currently allowing only 5.18 yards per attempt in the short area, which is eighth in the league. Targeted more times than any cornerback in the NFL, still solidly in the top ten in terms of performance. He's not allowing a high average per attempt, even if he allows a lot of yards. So, I still think he's good. So there.
- The Steelers are completing 67.86 percent of their passes to the deep middle -- passes traveling more than ten yards in the air -- and averaging 15.57 yards per attempt. That is an absurdly ridiculous percentage and average. They're completing 40 percent of their passes deep to Mike Wallace's side of the field and averaging 11.24 yards per attempt. They've attempted to the third most deep passes to the right side of the field in the league and seventh most passes to the deep middle. I think they need to switch those rankings and keep throwing to the deep middle until someone stops them. In fact, they can throw to Wallace on a deep post. Just because he starts out on the right side of the field doesn't mean he has to stay there. Something to think about for the balance of the season and the playoffs.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Steelers-Jets Preview
Before we get to the preview for the Jets game, quick review of the Bengals game (which will factor into the preview for the Jets game):
I actually thought three weeks ago -- when the Jets were 9-2 and on top of the world, before they got crushed by the Patriots and lost a snoozer to the Dolphins -- that the Steelers could beat this team. What kept jumping out at me is that the Jets' offense is based off running the ball and that no one can run the ball against the Steelers. When they've faced a run-oriented team that needs the run to set up the pass, they've beaten that team.
I've also been thinking about the fact that the Steelers have a crappy offensive line and allow too many hits and sacks on Ben Roethlisberger. The Bengals and Bills don't really have a pass rush, but they looked like they were running the 46 defense against the Steelers. The Jets pressure the quarterback really, really well and head coach Rex Ryan has been hailed as a defensive genius. Given those facts, the Jets should finish Sunday with 15 sacks, right?
My issue with that logic is that the hated Ravens are running the same defense and "only" had three sacks a couple weeks ago. Sure, they hit Roethlisberger a lot and Terrell Suggs flexed a lot, but they ultimately didn't have the kind of overwhelming pressure performance that would have totally shut the Steelers down. If a team comes to blitz, the Steelers will be ready for them, crappy offensive line or no crappy offensive line. The lone exception to this rule is the game against the Saints, where everyone on the offensive coaching staff apparently forgot to read this blog and seemed surprised that a Gregg Williams defense was blitzing a lot.
Because Roethlisberger is hurting, he will throw the ball away more. He will try to get out of the pocket and "make something happen" less. This will ultimately help the team.
The problem is that I don't think the Steelers will be able to run the ball, either.
So, you've got two teams that like to stop the run and run the ball and that will essentially lead to a bunch of pads popping and awesomely violent futility.
Which means that it will come down to the quarterbacks. Which means that the Steelers have the edge. They usually do in that situation, which is one of the reasons that they're currently 10-3. But, that's not the whole story.
If this turns into a passing fest, then the outcome most definitely favors the Steelers. Mark Sanchez cannot be trusted to go a full game without screwing something up.
The other side of that coin is that Sanchez does not screw up very often with the game on the line. He tends to rise to the occasion. Ben Roethlisberger also tends to rise to the occasion, but there's one, big difference.
Sanchez has Santonio Holmes and Roethlisberger does not. Holmes plays his best football in pressure situations. He has made big plays in big games and has made little plays into big plays in big games, or in little games at big moments. As much as he might claim that he doesn't have anything against the Pittsburgh Steelers, he has something against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
This is why this game can't come down to who has the ball last. I don't care if it's 10-6 with two minutes left or 17-13 or 24-20 or 31-27. I think Santonio and Sanchez will find a way to come through and Holmes will find a way to settle the score.
So, the plan should be to not make it that close, which I think the Steelers can do.
Prediction:
Steelers 20, Jets 10
- Defense was hugely, awesomely clutch. They looked pretty average against a strong Bengals offense in the first game, but the stepped up big time last Sunday, outscoring the offense.
- Which reminds me... the offense sucked. They moved the ball, they looked solid at times, Randle-El made a huge catch, but they were 0-for-2 in goal to go and 0-for-3 in the red zone. That's no good and it will definitely murder them in the future when they start playing better teams. Hey, they play a better team on Sunday. How about that?
- Kampinos might be OK. He's still a downgrade from Vulva, but he's a MAJOR upgrade over Bitch Merger. I was nervous on the first punt because I didn't know what to expect, but I became less nervous as the game wore on and he continued to punt in a serviceable manner.
- Weidman actually read the preview for last week's game and told me that "wordsmith" is one word, not two. So there you go.
I actually thought three weeks ago -- when the Jets were 9-2 and on top of the world, before they got crushed by the Patriots and lost a snoozer to the Dolphins -- that the Steelers could beat this team. What kept jumping out at me is that the Jets' offense is based off running the ball and that no one can run the ball against the Steelers. When they've faced a run-oriented team that needs the run to set up the pass, they've beaten that team.
I've also been thinking about the fact that the Steelers have a crappy offensive line and allow too many hits and sacks on Ben Roethlisberger. The Bengals and Bills don't really have a pass rush, but they looked like they were running the 46 defense against the Steelers. The Jets pressure the quarterback really, really well and head coach Rex Ryan has been hailed as a defensive genius. Given those facts, the Jets should finish Sunday with 15 sacks, right?
My issue with that logic is that the hated Ravens are running the same defense and "only" had three sacks a couple weeks ago. Sure, they hit Roethlisberger a lot and Terrell Suggs flexed a lot, but they ultimately didn't have the kind of overwhelming pressure performance that would have totally shut the Steelers down. If a team comes to blitz, the Steelers will be ready for them, crappy offensive line or no crappy offensive line. The lone exception to this rule is the game against the Saints, where everyone on the offensive coaching staff apparently forgot to read this blog and seemed surprised that a Gregg Williams defense was blitzing a lot.
Because Roethlisberger is hurting, he will throw the ball away more. He will try to get out of the pocket and "make something happen" less. This will ultimately help the team.
The problem is that I don't think the Steelers will be able to run the ball, either.
So, you've got two teams that like to stop the run and run the ball and that will essentially lead to a bunch of pads popping and awesomely violent futility.
Which means that it will come down to the quarterbacks. Which means that the Steelers have the edge. They usually do in that situation, which is one of the reasons that they're currently 10-3. But, that's not the whole story.
If this turns into a passing fest, then the outcome most definitely favors the Steelers. Mark Sanchez cannot be trusted to go a full game without screwing something up.
The other side of that coin is that Sanchez does not screw up very often with the game on the line. He tends to rise to the occasion. Ben Roethlisberger also tends to rise to the occasion, but there's one, big difference.
Sanchez has Santonio Holmes and Roethlisberger does not. Holmes plays his best football in pressure situations. He has made big plays in big games and has made little plays into big plays in big games, or in little games at big moments. As much as he might claim that he doesn't have anything against the Pittsburgh Steelers, he has something against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
This is why this game can't come down to who has the ball last. I don't care if it's 10-6 with two minutes left or 17-13 or 24-20 or 31-27. I think Santonio and Sanchez will find a way to come through and Holmes will find a way to settle the score.
So, the plan should be to not make it that close, which I think the Steelers can do.
Prediction:
Steelers 20, Jets 10
Thursday, December 09, 2010
Steelers-Bengals Preview Take Two
See? That rhymes? I'm such a word smith.
I think the Steelers face the same issues coming into this game as they did heading into the last game. The only comfort is that this game is at home... where the Steelers are 3-2 and they're 6-1 on the road. Maybe scratch that comfort.
The Bengals have dropped nine straight, they gave up 49 points to the Bills, and they threw a way a game to New Orleans last week, so they're not exactly swimming in motivation or confidence right now. They're still designed to beat the Steelers and they still hate us more than we hate them -- this would be a bigger win for Cincinnati than it would be for the Steelers -- so that's a problem.
The only thing I keep thinking about is that they may have even less to play for in this game than a 2-10 team ordinarily would. Normally, the Bengals would be playing for pride and for next season. The players that are under contract would be trying to protect their jobs and the would-be free agents would be auditioning for the next team. Everyone would be trying to impress whoever their coach would be next year -- either the new guy after Marvin Lewis gets fired or the coach of their new team.
I don't think there's going to be a 2011 season and I think the players might realize that, too. If they don't have anything to play for this season, then they don't have anything to play for at all in this game, since there won't be a next season next season. They basically just have their pride. When it's right around freezing outside, possibly snowing, and James Farrior is trying to make orphans of your children, pride tends to take a back seat to sitting on a heated bench in a parka and talking with your team mates about your golf game.
They still hate the Steelers, they still have their pride, but I'm thinking they won't have as much fight in them in the second half. If the first half of Sunday's game turns out like the first half of the first game, then the Steelers should be able to put the Bengals away in the second half. I think that they have sufficient motivation, pride, and talent to do that.
Prediction:
Steelers 28, Bengals 7
I think the Steelers face the same issues coming into this game as they did heading into the last game. The only comfort is that this game is at home... where the Steelers are 3-2 and they're 6-1 on the road. Maybe scratch that comfort.
The Bengals have dropped nine straight, they gave up 49 points to the Bills, and they threw a way a game to New Orleans last week, so they're not exactly swimming in motivation or confidence right now. They're still designed to beat the Steelers and they still hate us more than we hate them -- this would be a bigger win for Cincinnati than it would be for the Steelers -- so that's a problem.
The only thing I keep thinking about is that they may have even less to play for in this game than a 2-10 team ordinarily would. Normally, the Bengals would be playing for pride and for next season. The players that are under contract would be trying to protect their jobs and the would-be free agents would be auditioning for the next team. Everyone would be trying to impress whoever their coach would be next year -- either the new guy after Marvin Lewis gets fired or the coach of their new team.
I don't think there's going to be a 2011 season and I think the players might realize that, too. If they don't have anything to play for this season, then they don't have anything to play for at all in this game, since there won't be a next season next season. They basically just have their pride. When it's right around freezing outside, possibly snowing, and James Farrior is trying to make orphans of your children, pride tends to take a back seat to sitting on a heated bench in a parka and talking with your team mates about your golf game.
They still hate the Steelers, they still have their pride, but I'm thinking they won't have as much fight in them in the second half. If the first half of Sunday's game turns out like the first half of the first game, then the Steelers should be able to put the Bengals away in the second half. I think that they have sufficient motivation, pride, and talent to do that.
Prediction:
Steelers 28, Bengals 7
Tuesday, December 07, 2010
Steelers-Hated Ravens Review
That was a tough, hard-fought win and a tremendous performance by Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are now firmly in the driver's seat in the division. It would not take an epic collapse for them to lose that position, but they would need to perform well below expectations.
The game was what it was and I'm glad it's over and the Steelers won. I don't want to get caught up in penalty and fine controversy. I just want to move on with the balance of the season. Looking ahead, here's what I see...
The game was what it was and I'm glad it's over and the Steelers won. I don't want to get caught up in penalty and fine controversy. I just want to move on with the balance of the season. Looking ahead, here's what I see...
- The loss of Heath Miller is huge. After seeing that hit and seeing him go off the field, I would be shocked if he plays in either of the next two games. With Matt Spaeth also hurt, that leaves only David Johnson. Well, I know he wears number 85 and that his last name is Johnson and I think his first name is David... but the fact that I would need to Google it to be sure is proof enough that the tight end position is unsettled to say the least. I want Heath to come back, but I'm concerned about his health. That was a rough hit. I really just hope that he is OK and that Spaeth comes back soon. Losing Heath gives the Steelers fewer options in the passing game and fewer options in terms of personnel grouping. That's a big hit to the offense, but they should be fine if Roethlisberger is healthy and the receivers stop dropping passes on third down (BIG issue on Sunday night).
- The loss of Vulva is almost as huge. The Steelers signed Jeremy Kapinos of Penn State fame, but I'm still very concerned. Having Bitch Merger and The Guy Who Replaced Bitch Merger and Was Worse (Paul Edinger? Maybe? Again, if I have to Google it, it's a bad sign) in 2008 really set the team back. That was an epic defense. The Steelers have a very good defense in 2010, but they're not epic. I'm not sure that they can overcome marginal punting without an epic defense and with an offense that still seems to be trying to find its sea legs.
- Although I don't wish injuries on anyone, I hope Roethlisberger's foot stays kinda broken. He actually threw the ball away when he was supposed to on Sunday night instead of trying to "create" and it worked out great for everyone. So, even when the foot is healed, I would be in favor of Roethlisberger throwing a few more passes away when nothing is there.
- Flozell Adams? Maybe not such a huge loss. I always said that I hoped he'd get seriously hurt -- it wasn't a matter of if, but only when -- when the Steelers still had time to compensate. It's not like he's an all-world guy. Trai Essex looked comfortable enough and played well enough after Adams left the field and went to the locker room. Maybe just let him stay there, even if Adams is healthy enough to come back.
- I keep thinking about what this offense would look like if Santonio was still on the team. They'd be pretty awesome, right?
- Mike Wallace needs to catch more screens. Defenses are playing about 70 yards off the line of scrimmage to his side of the field. He's so damn fast, he's gotta bust one of those for a touchdown, right? Even if he only averages 15 or so yards a reception, cornerbacks will start to creep up on the line and that will open things up deep.
- The Steelers need to continue to unleash hell in December. They need to keep working to get better. If they can fix some issues, they can get good enough to get lucky and steal a Super Bowl like they did in 2008. If someone, anyone at all, please do it, can knock the Patriots out, the field for the post season appears to be wide open. With the possibility of a bye week and at least one home playoff game, I like those odds. But, really, that's only if someone knocks New England out. They're the 800 pound gorilla in the AFC bracket as long as Tom Brady is alive.
- This could be their last chance for a while. Even if there's a 2011 season -- and Weidman and I agree that there will not be, but more on this when I'm able to write it up -- Harrison and Smith might retire. Possibly Hines if the Steelers win another championship, as well as Farrior, maybe Foote, possibly Keisel. If there is no 2011 season, I think all those guys retire and put the Steelers firmly in rebuilding mode. Maybe Hampton retires as well. The point is that this is probably this team's last run, so they better make it count.
Wednesday, December 01, 2010
Steelers-Hated Ravens Preview
I was really going to write a preview and review for the Bills game. Seriously, I was. I was going to try to come up with some clever padding and some extra fluff around the fact that the Steelers needed to win the game and should win the game, then talk about the fact that they narrowly won. But, really, that's so last week.
The past two weeks, the Steelers played the Raiders and the Bills, the hated Ravens played the Panthers and the Bucs. Both teams had to have one eye on this game the whole time, even though the coaches and players will say that they were taking it one week at a time.
This is a huge game. The Steelers have the 2-9 Bengals, the 1-10 Panthers, and 4-7 Browns left, but also have the 9-2 Jets. The hated Ravens have the 5-6 Texans, 2-9 Bengals, and 4-7 Browns left, but also have the defending champion Saints.
Whoever wins this game probably ends up 12-4 with an excellent chance to become the #2 seed in the AFC. Whoever loses it probably ends up 11-5 and a wild card. The Browns and Bengals are out of it, so this game is for the division title.
Baltimore is at home where they are 5-0, but the Steelers are 5-1 on the road and the hated Ravens already won at Heinz Field, so the home team is not invulnerable by any stretch.
Ray Rice was limited in the first game and is Baltimore's best weapon, but the Steelers held Michael Turner, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, and Peyton Hillis in check. I think this game will come down to whether or not Joe Flacco can win it. He hasn't done well at all in against the Steelers in the past, but he beat them in October. So there's that.
The thing I keep thinking about is the fact that the Steelers would have won that first game if Ben Roethlisberger was the starting quarterback and he's starting on Sunday night. Roethlisberger would have hit Mike Wallace on a couple of deep balls that Charlie Batch missed and the Steelers would have won 24-17. He's 6-3 in his career against the hated Ravens and Flacco is 2-3 against the Steelers. If it comes down to the quarterbacks, Roethlisberger has the edge.
For the most part, though, the hated Ravens are the hated Ravens because of their hated defense, the hated Ray Lewis, the hated Haloti Ngata, and the hated Ed Reed. This is still a great defense, but it's no longer a defense that scares the hell out of me. It's a defense that likes to blitz and is good at it and Roethlisberger has been vulnerable to the blitz this season, so it's possible that the hated Ravens could break him down on Sunday night. It's also possible that he could bust out of a tackle and hit Wallace deep against a fairly suspect secondary.
If it comes down to a field goal, we know from last week that Shaun Suisham can be trusted on the road. At Heinz Field, I'm still not sure. But, I guess that's tomorrow's problem.
This game is tough to call. Both teams are 8-3. Both teams lost to the Patriots. Both teams snuck by the Bills in overtime. Both teams have tough, physical defenses. Both teams have great quarterbacks and like to run the ball. Both teams hate each other. A lot.
I keep thinking that holding calls and roughing the passer calls, which have plagued the Steelers in recent weeks, might help decide the outcome of the game. That concerns me, but good teams overcome penalties to win.
But, I keep coming back to the fact that the Steelers would have won that game in October if Ben Roethlisberger was under center.
You can take out home field advantage, because it hasn't mattered in the past and neither team thinks they will win or lose based on the venue. You can take out emotion, because both teams are fired up. You can take out motivation, because both teams understand that this game basically decides the division title. You can take out the running game, because both teams can and will take that away. If either team is able to run the ball, the team that is able to accomplish that feat will win. You can take out kickers, because both kickers can be trusted. You can take out special teams, because the Steelers have been solid in that area and the hated Ravens don't have a major threat.
Once you start taking away stuff, you find out that it comes down to quarterbacks. I trust Roethlisberger over Flacco.
Prediction:
Steelers 21, Ravens 17
The past two weeks, the Steelers played the Raiders and the Bills, the hated Ravens played the Panthers and the Bucs. Both teams had to have one eye on this game the whole time, even though the coaches and players will say that they were taking it one week at a time.
This is a huge game. The Steelers have the 2-9 Bengals, the 1-10 Panthers, and 4-7 Browns left, but also have the 9-2 Jets. The hated Ravens have the 5-6 Texans, 2-9 Bengals, and 4-7 Browns left, but also have the defending champion Saints.
Whoever wins this game probably ends up 12-4 with an excellent chance to become the #2 seed in the AFC. Whoever loses it probably ends up 11-5 and a wild card. The Browns and Bengals are out of it, so this game is for the division title.
Baltimore is at home where they are 5-0, but the Steelers are 5-1 on the road and the hated Ravens already won at Heinz Field, so the home team is not invulnerable by any stretch.
Ray Rice was limited in the first game and is Baltimore's best weapon, but the Steelers held Michael Turner, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, and Peyton Hillis in check. I think this game will come down to whether or not Joe Flacco can win it. He hasn't done well at all in against the Steelers in the past, but he beat them in October. So there's that.
The thing I keep thinking about is the fact that the Steelers would have won that first game if Ben Roethlisberger was the starting quarterback and he's starting on Sunday night. Roethlisberger would have hit Mike Wallace on a couple of deep balls that Charlie Batch missed and the Steelers would have won 24-17. He's 6-3 in his career against the hated Ravens and Flacco is 2-3 against the Steelers. If it comes down to the quarterbacks, Roethlisberger has the edge.
For the most part, though, the hated Ravens are the hated Ravens because of their hated defense, the hated Ray Lewis, the hated Haloti Ngata, and the hated Ed Reed. This is still a great defense, but it's no longer a defense that scares the hell out of me. It's a defense that likes to blitz and is good at it and Roethlisberger has been vulnerable to the blitz this season, so it's possible that the hated Ravens could break him down on Sunday night. It's also possible that he could bust out of a tackle and hit Wallace deep against a fairly suspect secondary.
If it comes down to a field goal, we know from last week that Shaun Suisham can be trusted on the road. At Heinz Field, I'm still not sure. But, I guess that's tomorrow's problem.
This game is tough to call. Both teams are 8-3. Both teams lost to the Patriots. Both teams snuck by the Bills in overtime. Both teams have tough, physical defenses. Both teams have great quarterbacks and like to run the ball. Both teams hate each other. A lot.
I keep thinking that holding calls and roughing the passer calls, which have plagued the Steelers in recent weeks, might help decide the outcome of the game. That concerns me, but good teams overcome penalties to win.
But, I keep coming back to the fact that the Steelers would have won that game in October if Ben Roethlisberger was under center.
You can take out home field advantage, because it hasn't mattered in the past and neither team thinks they will win or lose based on the venue. You can take out emotion, because both teams are fired up. You can take out motivation, because both teams understand that this game basically decides the division title. You can take out the running game, because both teams can and will take that away. If either team is able to run the ball, the team that is able to accomplish that feat will win. You can take out kickers, because both kickers can be trusted. You can take out special teams, because the Steelers have been solid in that area and the hated Ravens don't have a major threat.
Once you start taking away stuff, you find out that it comes down to quarterbacks. I trust Roethlisberger over Flacco.
Prediction:
Steelers 21, Ravens 17
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