The Force is strong

Another week is upon us, and the Arena League waits for no man. Next up is the formidable Georgia Force, and one thing is certain: They're no New Orleans Voodoo.

The Power took the win last week, and were the only team in our division to do so. Another week like that, and they'd actually take the top slot...but that ain't gonna happen. It's tough to say, but there it is. Cleveland would have to drop a third one in a row – which is not likely to begin with – and they're playing Tulsa. Sure, Tulsa beat us and Cleveland was beaten by the Voodoo – but both of those are kind of flukes.

The other thing that would need to happen is that we would need to beat the Force, and that will take some doing. On one hand, the Force is tied for second place in a rather tough division with one of the only two teams to beat them. Their other loss was to the top team in this same division, the Sharks.

On the other hand, of their four wins, only one came against a team with a winning record, the Dallas Vigilantes. Their others came against the Voodoo, the Mustangs and the Talons, which have a total of 4 wins among them in 8 weeks of football. Now, this is not to say that these Force wins are meaningless – they're not. After all, one of those teams beat us. However, they go to show that they might not be all that.

So how do we go about this? Well, we've got to keep on keepin' on. We have good momentum going into this game with a win over New Orleans last week (a victory I will hoist a glass to in the Quarter this week when I make my way down there for vacation) as well as a nice long rest between games. Assuming that they didn't spend a week resting on their laurels and forgetting everything they progressed on, this should put the Power in good fighting form.

On defense, there's no easy strategy to employ against the Force’s passing game. Brett Elliot has a lot of yards on the season and 4 receivers that he regularly goes to in Purify, Shipp and the Johnsons, CJ and Mike. (I really wonder how often someone comes up to them and cracks Die Hard jokes. “Johnson. No...the other one.” End of Digression.) So, there's no real openings there. Best idea is to put pressure on Elliot and see that he doesn't have time to get the ball off.

On the ground, they have no running game to speak of. None. When you account for lost yardage, they actually have less than 10 yards on the season. Therefore, I don't think it's something that the Power are going to be stressing much about.

However, on our side of the ball, most teams that have played them this season has been able to put up yards against them. Dallas and Tulsa both only lost by a touchdown, and were each able to put up nearly a hundred yards on them. Tulsa's quarterback, Bobby Reid, put up 96 by himself. Even when Jacksonville put less than twenty rushing yards up, Georgia has negative yardage.

The point here is that – even for the Arena League – the Force has a blind spot for the ground game. If ever there was a week to try out that whole Josh Rue thing again, this is it.

Another factor to watch is that the Force seems to have a have a habit of slacking off late in the game. Fully half of their games saw the opposing team make a major rally in the second-half and close the gap. Now, the Power haven't been that fantastic at the long game this season, but if they can keep the faith and not panic when and if they're down, they have a chance to catch the Force by surprise late in the game.

One has to realize, however, that state, predictions, offensive habits and the like only matter if the Power holds up its side of the bargain. This, again, means not back-sliding into old habits and learning from past mistakes. They need to keep their head in the game and make the good plays that they made last week. I hope to see Morelli behind center again this week – see my review comments about horses and streams – but Morris has been activated from IR, so I don't know who they are going to go with.

Furthermore, these penalties need to stop. I hope that they took this long break to drill every major play they have and that whoever is at QB is getting flashcard quizzes throughout the day. Most of our penalties have involved confusion before the snap and jumping the gun, so that is our major concern. Penalty yards kill games as much as bad defense.

The bottom line is that this is going to be our toughest game so far this season short of the Sharks. It is winnable, but it won't be easy. If we can find some way to neutralize them in the air, this will be our game to lose. Their ground attack and defense is weak, they get soft in the second half, and a lot of their wins have come against cream-puffs. However, the Power are often guilty of making stupid mistakes and losing to cream-puffs.

Game starts at 7:30 Saturday night, streaming online.

Elsewhere in the league:

• In divisional action, the Barnstormers host Philly in what is a pretty “meh” game. At least the Barnstormers have a good Internet feed and make for entertaining football.
• In an almost identical situation, the Tampa Bay Storm will be hosting the Mustangs.
• The Game of the Week is the Orlando Predators at the Jacksonville Sharks in a game that (along with ours) has the potential to completely shake up the American Division South. This will air on the NFL network Sunday at three, on delay do to the draft.
  
• All the powerhouses in the National Conference either have a bye or are playing teams that might as well be a bye.

Steelers Draft Preview: 2011

It's that time of year again.  We don't know who the Steelers will draft.  We don't know if those players will sign contracts in this calendar year or if any of them will play the 2011.  So, you take the usual subterfuge, misinformation, and uncertainty that usually surrounds the draft and add a lockout.  Awesome.

There are only a few things I'm sure about regarding the Steelers and the 2011 NFL draft:

1. They're not taking a quarterback in the first round.
2. They don't need a center.
3. The Steelers will need to trade up in the first round to draft Mike Pouncey.
4. They have seven selections.
5. They need at least one defensive lineman (an end and a nose tackle, preferably), at least one offensive lineman (either a guard or a tackle, preferably both), a running back, at least one cornerback, a tight end, and a linebacker.  A return specialist and possibly a wide receiver wouldn't hurt.

The trouble is that I don't think there's a 3-4 end in this draft that would be suitable.  There are a couple of possibilities at nose tackle.  After Von Miller, linebacker is a fairly mixed bag.  There are two cornerbacks that are sure-fire first round guys in Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara, but everyone else has holes.  There are a ton of good offensive tackles and the guard class is pretty deep.  On the one hand, that means that they can get someone that's very good in the first round.  On the other hand, that means they could potentially wait until the second or third round to get someone just about as good.

The defense is ancient, but they may have one more good year left in them.  If Aaron Smith can at least start the season healthy -- and he doesn't retire -- then they're fairly well set up at end with Ziggy Hood and Brett Keisel.  It wouldn't hurt to inject some youth into the defensive line, but they may be able to hold everything together for one more season.  The thing that worries me is Casey Hampton.  Without anyone to stop him from eating and without offseason conditioning programs to keep him in game shape, my guess is that he's pushing about 370 or 380 at this point.  If the owners appeal the lockout decision and things drag into July, he'll probably check into training camp over four bills, if he checks in at all.  There is not another Casey Hampton in this draft.  There are, however, some big dudes that can clog up the middle, so that will have to suffice.  (Editor's Note: I have given up on the idea that the Steelers will switch to a 4-3 defense.  I don't think that happens as long as Dick LeBeau is still alive, which potentially means another 80 years of the 3-4.)

Offensive line is not as glaring a need as everyone makes it out to be -- I thought everyone came together and played well towards the end of the season in 2010, even with all the injuries -- but I think we can all agree that tabbing a quality guy in the first round certainly helps.

Rashard Mendenhall isn't reliable enough to be this team's only quality running back and I doubt anyone would feel secure with the running game if it was a platoon situation with Ike Redman and Mewelde Moore.  They need another body and the good news is that the running backs are basically interchangeable in this class.  I would be fine with the Steelers taking Mark Ingram in the first round, even though there are bigger needs out there and they took Mendenhall in the first round in 2008.  But, there's probably better value to be had later in the draft, so let's focus on that and hope the Steelers do the same.

If James Farrior can play at his 2010 level and doesn't retire, then linebacker is a more secure position than I led you to believe.  Maybe they can get by without taking a linebacker, but this defense lives and dies at the linebacker position, which means you can never have enough of them.

I don't think there's a safety worth drafting in any round this year, let alone round one.

That brings us to cornerback.  One of my biggest talking points is that the Steelers never have needed and never will need talented players at the cornerback position.  This defense has been all about pressure on the quarterback since 1992.  Kill the head and the body will die.  Well, I'm going to go ahead and ease up on that because 1) Steelers opponents have shown a tendency to completely abandon the running game and, 2) the NFL is turning into a passing league, so you need to have three solid guys at the cornerback position.  I like Ike Taylor, Bryant McFadden, and William Gay, but they're not going to get it done long term.  Therefore, I would be OK with the Steelers taking a cornerback in the first round.  I would even be fine with them taking more than one cornerback in this draft.

First Round:

I have no inside information, but I think they take an offensive lineman here.  Pouncey won't be available, but they should certainly snatch him up and count themselves lucky if he is.  When he's gone, I really like Derrek Sherrod from Mississippi State at the offensive tackle position.  He's a smart kid, he's a hard worker, and he's a great player.  I think he would fit right in with the Steelers.  He needs to get stronger and he needs to get a little meaner, but I think those things will come once Willie Colon is told that he is being replaced at right tackle.  The aura of pure hate around Colon will rub off on Sherrod and he will be good to go.  Heading into the Senior Bowl, there was talk that Sherrod was the best tackle in the draft.  He goes out, has a great week of practice and a terrific game, then runs a poor 40 at the Combine and his Pro Day and suddenly he's a bum.  I don't agree.

At guard, the draft gurus of the world like Baylor's Danny Watkins.  I like Rodney Hudson of Florida State.  I don't like Florida State in general, but the Steelers love them some Seminoles, so that is a possibility.  Hudson has a second round grade, but I would be fine with them taking Hudson 31st overall.

Aside from Peterson and Amukamara, there's one cornerback that I think is a first round guy.  If either of the top two guys are still available -- they won't be, but still it's pretty to think so -- then take one of them.  If not, then I would be fine with the Steelers taking Colorado's Jimmy Smith if he's still on the board.  Smith is as big as Ike Taylor -- 6-foot-2 and 218 pounds -- but he's more polished at the position.  Taylor spent his first couple of years in college at running back, so he had to learn the ropes.  Smith also has better hands than Taylor, but who doesn't?

Failing all that, take the best defensive lineman available.  That will probably be Phil Taylor of Baylor.  He's a massive dude, but he carries it well.  He would be a suitable substitute for Big Snack.

My Pick: With the 31st pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Derrek Sherrod, Offensive Tackle, Mississippi State

Round Two:

It's possible that Hudson may still be floating around at this point, but that's highly doubtful.  If he's there, take him.  If not, I have an outside the box pick: Jonathan Baldwin, wide receiver, Pitt.  I know the Steelers have Hines Ward and Mike Wallace and youngsters Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, but Ward can't play forever and Sanders and Brown are more complementary guys.  Baldwin is actually ranked in the 40s on most boards and could sneak into the first round, but there are questions about his focus and he has been very inconsistent over the past two seasons.  I think that will scare a lot of teams away and cause Baldwin to drop.  I think the current mix of guys at the receiver position for the Steelers will get Baldwin to focus and tap into his vast potential.  I think those factors will keep Baldwin from turning into the next Limas Sweed.

If he's gone, there's still a decent chance that they take a cornerback, like Brandon Harris from The U.  They could also go guard or take the best defensive lineman available.  I think they hold off on tight ends until much later.

My Pick: With the 63rd pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Jonathan Baldwin, Wide Receiver, Pitt.

Round Three:

I think they go defense here, even if they went defense in rounds one or two (even rounds one and two).  If they didn't take Phil Taylor from Baylor in the previous two rounds, I like Kenrick Ellis out of Hampton.  He's 6-foot-5 and 346 pounds, which means he'll fill the void left behind by Casey Hampton quite nicely.

Cornerback or guard are still possibilities here as well, but I'm going to go defense.

My Pick: With the 95th pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Kenrick Ellis, Defensive Tackle, Hampton.

Round Four:

Regardless of whether or not they've already taken a cornerback, I really like Kendric Burney out of North Carolina.  He's a smaller guy at 5-foot-9 and 186 pounds, but he's a tenacious player, he's a solid tackler, and he's made for the Cover 2 defense, which is something the Steelers have been playing in their own way for the past couple of seasons.


My Pick: With the 128th pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Kendric Burney, Cornerback, North Carolina.


Round Five:

This is a surprisingly weak tight end class, but the Steelers always seem to take one.  They just happen to need one in this draft.  Let's pull a name out of a hat, shall we?

My Pick:  With the 162nd pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Lee Smith, Tight End, Marshall.


Round Six:

I know who I want the Steelers to take in Round Seven and the only other item left on my Master List is linebacker.  I like Orie Lemon from Oklahoma State because he has a cool name and should be available.  He also is about the right size at 6-foot-1 and 242 pounds and should be able to contribute on special teams.

My Pick:  With the 196th pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Orie Lemon, Inside Linebacker, Oklahoma State.


Round Seven:

I think that Kendric Burney is my Brian St. Pierre pick for this draft, but I also have a really good feeling about this pick.  I like Noel Devine from West Virginia.  Most folks believe that he's too small to survive in the NFL and they may be right.  But, damn is he fast.  

He's the kind of player that you feed the ball to 7-10 times a game and see what happens.  He may make a game-changing play or he may lose an acceptable amount of yardage.  For a team that has a need to fill or can't take losses of yardage on offense because their guys can't make it up or their defense can't bail them out, he's a bad fit.  For a team like the Steelers that run a high risk, high reward offense and have a tendency to lean on their defense, he's perfect.

He also fills two needs, since he's a running back and could be used in the return game.  Most rankings have him as going undrafted, but there is no signing of undrafted free agents with the current labor situation.  The best course of action would be to draft Devine, secure his services, and hopefully reap the rewards when he makes something spectacular happen on offense or special teams.

My Pick: With the 232nd pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Noel Devine, Running Back, West Virginia.

And... that's it.  I'm sure there will be a number of surprises to come and that the Steelers will draft a number of guys I've never heard of and will have to research.  That's the beauty part about this time of year.  When the names come off the board, the sky is the limit.  Everyone can be a star, everyone can help the team, and even Matt Spaeth has potential.

Power at New Orleans Review

Boy is it nice to start a review with something other than, “Well, the important part is that we made good progress.” We did, but more importantly, we won. That's a fantastic change of pace. It was a short week, we were on the road and we were up against a team that just knocked off the top team in our division – but we won.

Morelli seemed worlds more comfortable behind center. He was 23 for 35, with 232 yards, 6 passing touchdowns, one rushing and no interceptions. He may be finally finding his groove out there, right in time for Morris to get off of IR. Will they give Morris his job back, or stick with the man who now has the most on-field experience for the team? I don't know, but it warrants some careful thought as to what they should do. My feeling is to leave Morelli in, as one should not change horses midstream.

Right now, he seems to be settling in on Willis and Washington as his “go-to” receivers, except for in short-yardage situations. Twice in the short field, he chose to got to Powertool DeWalt for these and come up with a score. The first half of the game was mainly Willis, but they seemed to rest him in the second in favor of Washington. This change-up got the job done.

In the rushing game, I'm sorry to see Josh Rue become less and less of a factor each week. It's not that he has lost a step, but more that the tactic of using him is becoming less effective. Perhaps the other teams are catching on. On the other hand, to return to Morelli's comfort-level, he is stepping up to be what is fairly common in AFL teams: QB's that are also the team's top rusher. This week, he was not afraid to scramble and go for it, picking up good yardage in the process. To me, this is a sign of a quarterback that is developing into an effective player in this league. Deciding to just go for it shows that he's no longer thinking, “Gotta throw, gotta throw, please don't let this be a pick!” Now, he's thinking, “nothing doing – might as well see what I can make of it.” Again, this is common in this league and not necessarily a sign of an offense that can't make plays in the air.

The defense also stepped up big this week. The yards and plays for both teams stayed very even, which is a change over the last few weeks. They kept the Voodoo contained and on the same level, made big stops and pulled out the win, even though New Orleans drew first blood. Also, the defense forced three fumbles and recovered them all – a feat the Voodoo was not able to accomplish once.

However, it was not all rainbows and happiness this week.

Not pictured here: Penalties. Lots and lots of penalties

The way the game started, I never would have imagined that Pittsburgh would pull off a win. It started like so many others, with blown calls, penalties and ineffective plays. Thankfully, they woke up after that.

However, the Power is having continued problems on the line. They are regularly getting called for offsides, false starts and delay of game. This is a costly problem that needs to be addressed quickly. This week alone, it helped account for eleven penalties totaling a brutal 66 yards. That's bad on the full field, but in the league, it's almost a field and a half that they gave up in this game.

Although this can be chalked up to inexperience, it is still a large concern. They're largely silly mistakes that professionals should not be making this often. Overcoming this tendency is the next big step towards becoming a first-rate team - and a change that won't happen overnight.

We can't make too much about this win. The Voodoo is a fairly poor team with only one win on the season. Beating them isn't like we just whooped up on the Rattlers or the Sabercats – but it is a win, something that we badly needed. This brings the Power to 3-3 on the season and 2-0 on the road. In a strange twist, we're actually playing better in other peoples' houses than in our own. In addition to not making stupid procedural penalties, it sure would be nice if the Power can start rewarding their loyal fans at home who are still bringing in crowds bigger than most in the league by winning some games.

Next up: The Georgia Force.

Elsewhere in the league:

• Philly dropped another one this week in the expansion-team Arena Bowl rematch to the San Jose Sabercats. This time, the Soul didn't have a second-half collapse like they have been – rather, they were just outclassed at every turn. They put up a good fight, but the end was never in doubt.

• The Sharks made up for last week a little bit by knocking off Cleveland in a tight match Saturday night. From start to finish, it was a back-and-forth exchange of touchdowns for these two top-flight teams until late in the forth when Cleveland ran out of gas. Any loss for the Gladiators ultimately helps us.

NFL Lockout FAQ

This answers most of the questions surrounding the current NFL labor situation and is an attempt to consolidate what I've already written.

Why is there an NFL lockout?


In January, I wrote a post that outlined the key issues between the players and the owners in order to back up my prediction that a lockout would occur.  Most of the issues outlined there led to the eventual lockout.  I later posted an update that tracked the progress to that point.

If you want to read through all that, you can.  The Cliff notes version is that the players and the owners both wanted more money, but there was only so much money to go around.  The owners realized that they got the short end of the stick when the last Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) was signed in 2006 and wanted a better deal, while the players were seeking the same percentage of revenues that they were already getting, but wanted to add revenues from tickets, concessions, t-shirt sales, Internet subscriptions, licensing, all the other streams the owners were keeping from themselves.

The CBA was set to expire on March 4th, but the two sides extended the deadline and continued to negotiate with federal mediator George Cohen.  Ultimately, they were still too far apart -- to the tune of about $750 million -- to come to an agreement.  At the 11th hour, the players decided to decertify the union, meaning that the NFLPA was no longer representing the players in negotiations with the owners.  When that happened, the owners locked the players out, meaning that they wouldn't open their facilities to the players and coaches so they they could hold practices, OTAs, and mini-camps.

As soon as the owners locked the players out, the players filed an anti-trust suit against the owners, claiming that the NFL was using its power as a monopoly as a weapon against the players in negotiations.

Serves those greedy owners right.  Stupid monopoly.  I always wanted to be the race car, but my brother took it before I had the chance.

That's not a question and it's kind of off topic, but it does bring up an interesting point.  Since about 1950, the NFL enjoyed some exemptions from anti-trust laws.  They were allowed to operate as a monopoly as long as they acted in the best interest of the game and made games available to NFL fans.  That helped the NFL, their fans, and the television networks, since the NFL got TV money, the fans got to see their teams play, and the networks didn't need to negotiate with 32 different teams in order to get a deal done.  Each market got served, everyone was happy, and everyone made money.

Monopolies aren't inherently bad things.  The government has established forced monopolies for public services, such as water, utilities, and mass transit, since it would be a major pain for consumers otherwise.  Imagine if there were six electric boxes on the side of your house that weren't compatible with each other because of proprietary parts.  If a transmitter went down on your street, all six companies would argue about which one of them was supposed to fix it.  If one of those companies was mismanaged and went under, you'd be without power for an extended period of time.  Or, imagine trying to keep six bus schedules straight in your head, each with different times and route combinations, then standing at a stop and hoping the company didn't go out of business the night before without warning.

If NBC had to negotiate with the owners separately and the owners competed with each other for air time and different markets, the NFL may not have gotten off the ground.

Monopolies are only bad if they're abused to hurt another party.  The NFLPA kept the owners in line all these years because they balanced the power -- the Player's Association had a monopoly on NFL talent.  When the union decertified, that meant that the players were vulnerable and the owners were using their monopoly to lock the players out and improve their negotiating position.  That's not very nice, but it's also not legal.

That sounds intense.  What happened with the lawsuit?

There was a hearing on April 6th where the players stated their case and the owners stated theirs.  The problem is that both sides have a point.  The players play the games and put in the work, so they deserve more money.  The owners build the facilities, keep the lights on, hire coaches and front office staff, and pay all the bills, so they're also entitled to earn a living.  It's difficult to say whether or not the owners would have locked the players out if the players hadn't decertified first.  They probably would have, but the players moved first.

There's no disputing that the owners have a monopoly on NFL football, but arguments have gone back and forth about whether or not they're abusing that power thoroughly enough for an injunction to be placed on the lockout by the courts.

Since the arguments are so complex, the judge ruling on the matter said that she would need a "couple of weeks" to rule definitively on the injunction.  She then urged both sides to work this out for themselves, being that they'll need to negotiate a new deal at some point anyway.

I think that makes sense.  Are the owners and players working it out for themselves?

Kinda.  They started meeting with a state-appointed mediator in Minnesota, starting on April 13th.  They needed two weeks with Cohen to close the gap by $75 million, so my guess is that more time in a room won't fix this mess too quickly.

One of the issues identified in the January lockout post was the existence of bad blood.  I wrote about that before the decertification/lockout and I doubt everything that has transpired since has done anything to alleviate the bad blood.  I'm thinking there's an outside possibility the bad blood got worse.

Then why doesn't the judge rule in favor of the players and take that negotiating power away from the owners?

Because she really, really, really wants the two sides to work it out on their own.  Seriously.  She knows that, regardless of how she rules, the losing side will appeal.  When that appeal happens, you get more bad blood.  This whole mess stretches out further.  A ruling on the appeal probably won't happen until the summer -- we're probably looking at July at this point, unless she makes a decision in the next couple of days.

If everything stretches out until then, one side gains the upperhand in negotiations, but that doesn't mean everything gets put to bed quickly.  It means more meetings and more mediation and probably the cancellation of at least a few games, if not the entire season.  If that happens, the networks will get involved, attempt to pull out, and the owners and players will tolerate each other long enough to get something done.

Who does the lockout hurt?

Right now, here's the list, in order of most hurt to least hurt:

1. The fans.
2. Undrafted free agents.
3. Players that will be drafted at the end of the month, since they have an uncertain future and no paychecks or signing bonus to count on.
4. Bad teams that are in transition.

No NFL fan needs an explanation for #1.  For #2, no player can sign with an NFL team until there's a CBA in place.  The drafted players are hurt because of their uncertain future, but they still know who they'll be playing for once the dust settles.  Undrafted free agents are free agents like anyone else and can't be signed in the days following the draft like in previous years.  They can't be signed, so they'll walk the Earth, or maybe get real jobs.

They could, also, very possibly get jobs with Arena League teams.  That's a lower paycheck than the NFL and there is always an injury risk, but they'll still play football and get paid to do it, all the while auditioning for NFL teams that will want to sign them once they're allowed to sign them.

Bad teams are trying to break in new players, they'll need to lean on their draft picks more than good teams and will miss the offseason practices to acclimate those players, and they're trying to break in new coaches and new offensive/defensive systems.  Usually, they'd have seven months to do that.  This year, none of the players are allowed to talk to their new coaches and they won't be able to communicate with each other until a CBA is in place.  If that happens in July, that's five valuable months that will be lost.  Teams that are already bad can't afford to lose that time.

In the long term, young veterans that weren't able to sock away enough money from their last three game checks -- or the fund that was set up by established veterans that allows young players to withdraw up to $60,000 in order to meet expenses -- will run out of money.  That will hurt.

In the coming months, you'll see a lot of human interest stories about how the common man is being affected by the lockout.  Joe the Ticket Broker that had to sell his house because there were no tickets to broker.  Joe the Ticket Taker who couldn't send his son to Math Camp this year because he couldn't supplement his income by taking tickets on Sundays.

Well, that's a load of crap.

The ticket broker can broker other kinds of tickets.  If the ticket taker can't find another way to make money than working 24 hours each fall scanning tickets, maybe his kid won't do so well at Math Camp (provided bad math skills are hereditary).  People who sell tickets to sporting events are still sales people.  They will find another job.  The NFL will keep all their back office people and front office people because they legitimately believe there will be football soon.  It would be a bigger deal in Pittsburgh if PNC or Ariba shut down for a year.

Then there will be talk of how the local economies in NFL precincts will suffer because the average football game pumps $XXX million into the local economy.  That's a load of crap, too.

There have been no valid economical studies that have proven conclusively that professional football helps any local economy in any way.  The games are played in publicly subsidized stadiums, roads are closed down on Sundays to accommodate pedestrian traffic, unnecessary traffic jams are caused, and public transportation efforts need to be boosted on a day that is usually slow for public transit.  If anything, professional football games take from the local economy.  If you don't blow $200 on a ticket, parking, food before and after the game, and beer at a Steelers game, you will blow that $200 somewhere else.  Maybe at the casino, which is heavily taxed and funds public works programs.  Maybe at Home Depot, which employs people locally and pays local taxes.  The point is that you'll spend that money somewhere and you'll probably won't all do it in a concentrated area in a five hour period that will clog highways and spike drunk driving.

NOTE: I am not saying that football games are bad or that anyone who goes to a football game is an idiot.  I love football games and I love going to football games.  It's my second-most favorite thing in the world.  I'm just saying that anyone who claims that NFL games add value to their respective local economies is full of bullcrap.

The only economy that could potentially be hurt is the City of Indianapolis.  They're progressing as though next year's Super Bowl will actually happen and it will happen in their city.  They've already invested money in fixing up the city and building facilities and have allocated resources in anticipation of the event.  If the Super Bowl doesn't happen -- and that's way, way long term -- the City of Indianapolis gets hurt.

Who does the lockout help?

For right now, in order of helped the most to helped the least:

1. All other sports.
2. Good teams with consistency at coach and coordinator (yes, this means the Steelers).
3. The owners.
4. Older veterans. 

Arena ball and the UFL are helped by the fact that they're the only pro football out there.  They're not seeing a huge uptick in interest, but the Game of the Week for the AFL is still playing on NFL Network and more fans will flock to other forms of football -- any other forms of football -- as this labor dispute drags on.  If the AFL and UFL can continue to churn out a quality product, fans will move over to them in droves.

The Penguins have a license to print money in Pittsburgh, but the Pirates are the red-headed step-child of Pittsburgh sports.  If we reach July and there is no end to labor issues in sight, sports fans will start coming out to the yard no matter how bad the Buccos are at that point.

In major markets that have lots of options such as New York, Philly, Phoenix, Atlanta, and the Bay Area, basketball, hockey, and baseball will see boosts in attendance.

Any NFL team that has employed the same offensive and defensive system for a while will be helped pretty considerably and will have a tremendous advantage over teams in transition.  The Steelers aren't usually big players in the free agent market and have a veteran roster that has been in the same system for the past four years (even longer on the defensive side of the ball).  The Packers will get all the guys back that were on IR last season and the Patriots have 23 picks in the first 45 of the draft (estimated).  Basically, the rich will get richer and teams like the Colts, Chargers, and Saints, which have consistency at quarterback, will thrive after the lockout as well.

Ownership benefits because they don't have to pay to keep facilities open in the offseason and run offseason programs, which all cost money but don't add any tangible value or revenue.  Older veterans benefit from this provided they can keep themselves in shape.  They can take the offseason to rest, heal, and condition, getting themselves ready for the regular season.

In the long term, the lockout only benefits sports other than the NFL and only hurts the bottom line of the players and the owners.  Both parties know this, so they will get something done at some point.

When can we expect this to be resolved?

It depends on whether or not the judge comes to a decision and when the appeal is heard.  Both sides were preparing themselves for a lockout and the players have been surprisingly resolute.  No one will really start losing serious money until regular season games are wiped off the schedule.  The NFL has a tendency to wait until the last minute on all decisions, which means that negotiations could last deep into August.

I don't think either side is dumb enough to allow the 2011 season to be canceled, but you never know. 

Power Weekend Review/Easter Week Preview Extravaganza

With a very short week for the Power, we will be combining the review and preview into one post.

Let me start by making two things clear:

1. It wasn’t as bad as it might seem this weekend and
2. I’m never calling a sure-thing game again.

Power/Sharks Recap

Yes, the Power lost another heart-breaker at home Saturday night, but the game honestly unfolded just about as I suspected, and I think that they accomplished some of the objectives that I’d hoped they would.

From the start, the odds were horrendously stacked against them. On our side of the ball, we had a shaky and fairly inexperienced QB. On their side, they had the AFL’s all-time leading passer, totaling more than 26 miles in his long, 17-year history. Experienced team/expansion team. The list goes on.

In my preview, I tried to prepare us for a loss without being blunt about it – but it was my assumption heading into this week. As I had said, I hoped to see us working on team cohesion as well as getting Morelli some confidence behind center, since he might be there awhile, and honestly, I think that we accomplished that.

The game started with a back-and-forth, call-and-response style of scoring. As I said to the spare Mr. Keller attending the game with me, the bad thing about games like that is that usually the team that breaks the pattern first loses. Sure enough, late in the second quarter, the Power broke the pattern.

Up until then, Morelli was looking far, far more confident behind center than I think he has all season. On paper, he had a fantastic game where he held his own against a great quarterback. His completion percentage wasn’t the best, but he threw 290 yards for 5 touchdowns, no interceptions – Garcia only collected 7 more yards and the same number of touchdowns (according to the Arena league’s post-game stats page.)

He seemed a lot less afraid to throw this week. He made 36 attempts, and completed 20 of them. Again, not fantastic, but the yards still added up. He also got a 42 yarder to Willis and a 45 yarder to DeWalt – both for touchdowns. I’m still not super-psyched to have Morelli as our QB, but I’m a lot less worried than I was going into this week.

So, if he was so great, where did it go wrong? Like a lot of games, there were a lot of causes, but in this one, I can pinpoint the exact moment where the team checked out. After that great back-and-forth opening series, there was one drive late in the 2^nd where nothing went right for Pittsburgh.

Mathis made a 12-yard return that got called back to the 4 because of a holding call. First pass was incomplete, but Rue was holding – back to the two. Three more incompletes, and then Morelli got lost. Two delay of game calls in a row ensued as he tried to figure out what was going on, and they backed up to the 1. Another incomplete turned the ball over on downs.

This was the first drive that they didn’t score, and they turned it over to Jacksonville on the one-yard line (Note: there is no punting in Arena Football) and let them score. After another set of disjointed downs (one completion in four), Jax had it back and closed out the half with a field-goal. There were bursts of energy in the second half, but the fight was out of them. Even though they almost doubled their score before the end, it was no match for Aaron Garcia and his Sharks.

As I mentioned earlier, on paper Garcia and Morelli had very similar games and the same is also true of the receiving corps. The differences that changed the game were in the spots that the Sharks were able to complete and we failed. Both teams had three 4th-down attempts. Jacksonville converted all three, Power converted none. Jacksonville sacked Morelli 4 times; Power didn’t manage to get to Garcia at all. Jacksonville was 10-10 in the redzone. The Power was 50%.

Morelli and the rest still have a lot to work on moving forward, that much is obvious. For one thing, they were having trouble with the concept of “If it doesn’t work, try something else.” Case and point, on the ill-fated “drive” that took us out of the game, 3 of the 4 passes before the delay-of-game calls were short to Washington on the outside. Now, we can question the wisdom of throwing shortest man on the team three times while balancing on your own goal line all day, but the crux of the matter is that they shouldn’t have run any play that many times in quick succession if it wasn’t working. I assume that we all know the definition of insanity?

Morelli is getting more confident, but he still needs to work on it. I’m not sure if people just need to stop him on the street and tell him he’s awesome, or if Coach Siegfried needs to do some team-building trust exercises or what, but something’s got to happen. I’m not holding my breath that we’re going to see Morris again, and McCabe is gone for the forseeable. This might be our starter, whether we like it or not.

In the Tampa Bay game Friday night, Coach Dave Ewart made a comment about a mistake his QB made that was something to the effect of, “Well, the great thing about young guys is that they forget quickly.” Morelli needs to work on forgetting. Yeah, that drive was a total cluster, but it shouldn’t have been the end of the game. He took his finger off the button at that moment, and never managed to get it back on again.

If he can keep his focus and if the defense can, maybe, hold on to a few of the balls thrown right to them by opposing QBs, I think we’ll be in good shape. The receivers are there, Rue is standing by to lumber where he needs to go, and Morelli can throw the bombs when he’s feeling good.

Yes, we lost this week – but with a lot of help from around the league, we stayed definitively in second place in the division. We have another short week this week as we gear up to travel to New Orleans on Thursday for a little Easter Weekend football.

Power at New Orleans

Boy, I’d really like to say that this will be an easy week. Coming into this past weekend, the Voodoo were at the bottom of the Arena League –winless, directionless and hapless. Even firing their offensive coordinator early and bringing in former QB Raymond Philyaw to replace him didn’t seem to be making much of a difference. Forgetting what the winless Mustangs did to the Soul, and what the winless Talons did to us, I called the game against the Gladiators to be a solid loss.

Is it a crime to be wrong?

The Gladiators were one of the only remaining undefeated teams in the league, and the unchallenged leaders in our division. The Voodoo, frankly, seemed unsure how to play football. Could there have been any doubt how that game would end up? Yet, somehow, some way, they beat Cleveland 34-33. On the road. I didn’t get to see the game as it was on while I was in the Consol watching our Pittsburgh Power, so I am just going to go with the assumption that this was a hoax, a fix or a hallucination and move on.

But you know what? I’m glad they won. Now I don’t need to sit here and think about the fact that they’re due for a win, and worry about a repeat of the game against the Talons. Now, I can just look at the two teams on their own.

The Voodoo lost their first two games but kept it competitive, then entered a two game slide with the Sharks and Force that saw them get kicked around good and proper. This woke them up to make a big stand and beat an undefeated team this past weekend.

They obviously have their issues – beating Cleveland or not, they still lost every other game this season – and not much in the way of stand-out players. Their one win was a game where the total score was only two points higher than what Jacksonville scored by themselves against us.

I’m honestly not sure what to expect after Saturday. On one hand, they might be fired up after this huge win and use it as their launching point for the season. On the other hand, it might have been luck, or it might make them cocky and sloppy when they return to the Graveyard to play this week. (This is one of those sentences that I really don’t think came out the way that I’d hoped it would…)

Just like last week, I’m more concerned about our team than theirs. We’ve been very good at beating ourselves thus far, and a 1-4 team shouldn’t be a concern. However, Philly is a 1-4 team, and we’re their “1.” We can’t write them off. That’s the kind of stuff that leads to losses against teams like Philly and Tulsa.

It’s Easter Weekend coming up, and I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams are thinking about a long weekend in The Quarter after playing Thursday night. Hopefully, the Power will be able to focus in and work on everything I’ve been ranting about and pull off a win.

Besides – It’s Easter, and, if nothing else, I’m betting Jesus isn’t a fan of Voodoo.

Elsewhere in the League:

• Did anyone mention that NOLA beat Cleveland? Holy effin’ crap, man! The Gladiators are top of the heap in our division still, but at least we now know they can bleed – and if it bleeds, we can kill it.
• Philly continues their collapse this season, dropping yet another one they should have had Friday night to the Tampa Bay Storm. (Between the Soul and the Pens, TB had a good night in PA.) With the exception of the season opener against us, Philly has followed a very predictable pattern: Control and dominate in the first half, then forget that football games consist of two halves. Coach Ho needs to figure out a way of this cycle, and fast. Look, I like Coach Hohensee a lot. He used to coach my favorite non-Pittsburgh team (in any sport) and won many games – but I don’t think that’s going to matter to Ron Jaworski if this keeps up.
• With the Mustangs off, the Gladiators losing and Philly falling to dead-last and “not scary” territory, the Power remains in second place.

Week 6: Sharks at Power Preview

The preview is a bit short this week, because there's frankly not a lot to say. This week is going to be a “come to Jesus” week for the Power. I could talk about how good the Jacksonville Sharks are, and how they're currently 3-1. I could talk about the fact that their quarterback is already at almost a thousand yards on the season and has a solid receiving corps of three men he is comfortable going to.

I could, but that's not why we're here.

The Power need to focus on the other side of the ball, and focus hard. I'm really hoping that last game was an effect of fatigue and injures and that we can bounce back this week – but there's still a lot to consider.

Morris is still out for at least another week. That's bad. Powertool is off of (mysterious) suspension. That's good. McCabe is sitting on IR with Morris. That's bad. We still have Morrelli to stick behind center. That's...er... Well, let's just call that the cursed frogurt.

Morrelli hasn't had a lot of time in charge yet. Unfortunately, none of our QBs have. McCabe has the most experience, but it's been a mixed bag. Morrelli has had big moments, but no cohesive four quarter stands. He hasn't even had a solid half yet – but he is who we need to rely on this weekend. One way or another, he needs to make it happen.

If Morrelli can get his act together, he has to take advantage of his receiving corps. It's still an offensive advantage that we have a lot of guys to go to, but we're getting to the point where I'd feel a lot more comfortable if there were a few “go-to” guys with the rest being utility players. Now that we have DeWalt back, we've got five candidates for this.

Another factor this week is that the Sharks are Coach Siegfried's old team. This means we're going to have combined factors of them knowing how he thinks, and him having an idea what they're going to do. We can also hope for a bit of him trying to prove something, but that backfires as often as it works in sports.

This week, we also need to see the Power speeding up the game. Both Keller and I have hammered on the point that Siegfried is playing it too safe. Those plodding, meticulous drives are great when we're in the lead – but that hasn't been happening as often as any of us would like. The game needs to speed up, and the Power need to take command of the field.

Here's the brass tacks on this week: It's not as important as it could be. The Soul were nice enough to lose last week and give us that breathing room we were hoping for. They play Tampa this week, and I'm sure they can win. However, even if they win and we lose, that will just tie our standings up. Philly still has the head-to-head, but it could be worse.

As such, I'd say it's time to take some risks. Get Morrelli out there and light a fire under him. Get him to get that ball in the air and move it down field. Winning is great, but changing the team's overall momentum is better.

They just need to protect the hell out of him, because if he goes down, we really don't have any one to put in his shoes against the Voodoo next week...

****UPDATE****

Power have signed QB Xavier Lee. Unclear at this time if he's a backup or is starting.

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Elsewhere in the league

• Like I said above, the Soul lost to the Preds last week, but not for lack of trying. Coach Ho made some ballsy moves – including letting the Preds score with 35 seconds left just to make sure they got the ball one more time, and benching Allgood for a QB Orlando had no preparation for – but it wasn't enough. Despite a replacement QB with a lot of hustle and attack, but he was no match for Nick Hill's use of TT Toliver and Robert Quiroga.
  
  
• The Sabercats should more than likely teach the Talons some humility for us this weekend.
  
  
• The Gladiators are playing the pathetic Voodoo and that...that's not gonna be pretty. I'm gonna call it early and say that the Gladiators are going to be 4-0 and the Voodoo will keep a good thing going at 0-5.