Ever since the Flyers clinched the division and the Pens got locked into a series with the Lightning, I've been trying to figure this series out. The 4-5 match-up should be tough to handicap, but this one seems to be especially hard to figure out.
The teams split the season series two games apiece. Tampa won the last meeting, but the Pens blew them out in the two before that. The Pens have homefield advantage in the series, but Tampa scored 48 of their 103 points on the road and the Pens actually scored more points on the road than at home (fewer wins, but more overtime losses), so they may have been better off as the five seed here, but just for this series.
The Lightning have an explosive offense, led by stars and talented goal scorers and a serviceable defense with solid roleplayers. The Pens have an excellent, disciplined defense with two good offensive defensemen (Kris Letang and Brooks Orpik) and a defensive forward in Jordan Staal, with a serviceable offense filled with solid roleplayers. On offense, the Pens certainly have guys that can score, but none of them have scored consistently, which boils down to a lot of one goal wins.
With Staal, Kennedy, Neal, Kovy, Talbot, and DuPuis, the Pens do have a lot of talent and they have a lot of guys with playoff experience that can shoot the puck. They have four pretty solid lines and don't have a weak link from top-to-bottom, especially when you consider that the defensemen are interchangeable and can support a weaker offensive line by creating opportunities in transition. The trouble is that, without Crosby and Malkin, they don't have that one line that scares the hell out of everybody. Tampa's first line scares the hell out of me, makes me think the Pens could lose this series.
Sure, defense wins championships, but goals win games. Everything gets tighter and defensive teams usually have an edge when playoff time starts, but there's really no substitute for that one Uber-line that keeps the other team awake at night.
The experts on ESPN.com favor the Pens, with six out of eight picking them to advance past the first round. That's comforting, but they also seemed convinced that the Flyers don't stand a chance against the Sabres, which I find tough to swallow. I think those two series should be very even, with the team that wants it more and gets the most breaks coming out on top.
At any rate, I think that the Tampa offense -- especially the first line -- should be fairly negated by the Pens defense. In order to really roll on the Pens defense, you need to go outside-inside by avoiding the middle of the ice in the crease and sweeping in to crash the net when you get in the opposing team's zone. That's tough to do and I don't think Tampa has the talent to pull it off, but they could wear the Pens down eventually by spending a lot of time in the offensive zone. Ultimately, this is a wash.
Tampa's defense isn't great, but neither is the Pens offense. If any combination of the offensive roleplayers gets hot, then the Pens could smoke the Lightning in five games, but I doubt that happens. It could be that they start to gel together during this series -- remember, there have been a ton of injuries aside from Crosby and Malkin and Kovy and Neal only joined the team in February -- and get hot in Game 6. That's another longshot, though. The most likely outcome is that the Pens grind out a lot of close games to advance and will (hopefully) be able to save their "signature" game for the later rounds.
Special teams is very nearly a wash with the Pens holding a slight advantage. Even without Sid "diving" they still draw a fair number of penalties. They're 26th in the league on the power play, but with enough chances, they could sneak a few key goals through, even against the 8th-ranked penalty kill. The big advantage here is the Pens penalty kill, which is the best in the league. If they can keep that up, they won't get caught with their pants down when they're shorthanded in a close game.
Offense and defense are a wash. Special teams is basically a wash. That means it comes down to goaltending. Marc-Andre Fleury has been spectacular at times this season, especially in the last couple of months. He's also had some troubling lapses in concentration this season, especially in the last couple of months. Still, I would take Fleury over 41-year old Dwayne Roloson. If he has two bad games in this series, the Pens are sunk. Then again, if he has two bad games in any series, the Pens are sunk. Roloson can't have a bad game and make it easy for the Pens to score. That's the one area where they've struggled since their captains went down and any team that gives them hope and confidence is going to be in big trouble.
I'm not saying that Fleury is awesome and Roloson is a bum. I'm saying that I trust Fleury to not have two bad games in this series more than I trust Roloson to not slip up occasionally (or have even one, entire bad game).
I think Tampa's a great team and they could certainly win this series. I just don't think that they will win it.
Prediction: Pens in 6
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