Fantasy Football Rules to Live By: 2011

This season, I kinda came to the party late, because I wasn't sure if there was going to be football.  Football is now back, which means Fantasy Football is back.

I used to call this my Draft Manifesto, because I basically boosted the idea from ESPN's Matt Berry (aka The Talented Mr. Roto, or TMR for short).  Here's his Manifesto for this year.  Warning: He must get paid by the word like he said, because he tends to ramble.  With most Berry articles, you generally need to scroll down to the fourth paragraph so you can get past him talking about his girlfriend or how this season is like the time Prince changed his name to a symbol.  With this one, I think he doesn't start the actual analysis until the 3,000th word, so be prepared.  Once you get to the meat of the article, it's a really good read with some insightful points, which is the case with anything TMR writes.

Basically, it boils down to this: No one has any real idea what's going to happen this season.  Everyone has potential and everyone has holes.  I believe that Adrian Peterson is now the default Number One because he's not hurt (Arian Foster) and he's not in a contract dispute (Chris Johnson).  And, that's fine.  If you have the first overall pick, I think it's really difficult to go wrong.  Take the guy you like best and go from there.

Overall, my strategy is going to be to take guys that have been in a system for at least a year and to stay away from guys that are on a team that changed coaches or changed key personnel in the offseason.  You generally want to stay away from teams like that anyway and a truncated offseason has made that strategy even more sound.  Like TMR says, the idea is to try to avoid risk and go for the guys that get the ball the most.  If a guy doesn't have the ball, he can't score points.  For that reason, fantasy drafts have historically been running back heavy in the first couple of rounds.  But, the game is changing and you need to adjust.

So, I'm staying the hell away from guys on these teams:

1. Panthers.
2. Bengals.
3. Browns.
4. Vikings (except Peterson).
5. Seahawks.
6. Titans (except Chris Johnson, and maybe even him).

If someone emerges from one of those teams and is available as a free agent, then I'll scoop him up in a hurry.  I just think that there have been too many changes in those franchises and they just look too shaky.  For some reason, I still trust Denver for fantasy purposes.  I still think Kyle Orton, Brandon Lloyd, and Knowshon Moreno will get their numbers.  You may want to add them to your list of teams to avoid or you may want to make your own list.  You may adopt a "No Child Left Behind" policy and not discriminate against players just because they happen to collect paychecks from a certain team.  It's your team, do what you want.  The title "Rules to Live By" makes a cooler looking link and makes it sound like I'm an authority on the matter, but these are really just guidelines.

1. The first three rounds don't need to go RB, RB, WR.

That had been my strategy for years. The idea behind taking two running backs in the first three rounds -- I'd take a receiver in the first or second round if it was a really great player -- was that you want guys that are going to touch the ball a lot. Receivers only get a shot at the ball when someone throws it to them and tight ends get thrown at less than receivers.

So, it went great running backs on teams that run a lot, then guys that get the ball a lot on teams that run the ball OK, then guys that get most of the carries and can maybe catch the ball. After that, you were left with a grab bag of guys that split carries, specialty backs that did well on third downs, guys that were going to get the ball a lot but played on crappy teams that couldn't run the ball, and back-ups.

Now, pretty much everyone has a split-carry situation or they're on a team that doesn't run the ball well or doesn't run the ball much. As far as guys that are uncontested, talented players on teams that will run the ball a lot and run it well, you've got Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Rashard Mendenhall. And guess what? Those are six of your top fantasy football running backs in some order.

But, you also have Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Andre Johnson, and even potentially Roddy White in the top ten.  ESPN's Top 300 lists eight non-running backs in the top 20.

The reason for this is that there are those top six guys, then a hodgepodge of dudes that have some question mark or red flag attached to them. Just like in the real draft, the more red flags you have, the lower you get picked. Those quarterbacks and receivers have fewer red flags than the running backs that used to be selected ahead of them.

Also, teams are passing more nowadays because it's easier for them to pass than it is to run. So, now you've got those three BIG quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady, then you've got a pretty nice second tier of guys. The thing is that any of them could blow up at any time, so there's less risk (because teams are passing so much guys will get their stats and quarterback rating isn't factored into the scoring for almost all fantasy sites) and tons of upside (since you could snag the next Matt Schaub).

Then you've got Peyton Manning, who could be a huge steal if you draft before any real news is released about his neck injury.

There's this huge cluster of guys that could all do well or all get hurt and screw you, so there's no tremendous difference between the seventh ranked running back and the 18th ranked running back. That means that no one will scoop all of them up at once and you'll have your pick of the cluster. Even after the cluster, there are some guys that will be great fill-ins or trade material late.

The point is that there are more questions than answers at running back at this point and you generally take guys in the early rounds that are more "sure things" and there are more "sure things" at quarterback and receiver right now. After the top-tier guys, it gets a little murky, so a lot of fantasy football players are going to pull the trigger on the sure thing so they don't get stuck with a guy with a bunch of red flags. They can always pull a timeshare running back off the pile and hope their big-time QB or WR bails them out most weeks.

Plus which, if you want to get the best guy that touches the ball the most, quarterbacks touch the ball on every play. The best quarterbacks complete 65 percent of their passes. If the guy passes 40 times a game and gets ten yards a completion, that's better than Chris Johnson can get you on 20 carries.

2. Trust your cheat sheet.

Don't get cute is what I'm saying. I honestly have no idea who the 48th best receiver in fantasy football is. If you put a gun to my head and asked me to choose between Darren McFadden and Peyton Hillis, I wouldn't be giving you a firm answer. Who knows which of those guys is better? Trust the cheat sheet.

There are tons of them available and the more reputable sites (check the link I gave above for the Top 300) are all about the same. You can tweak it when you get it into a spreadsheet or print it out, but don't get to cute. The people that compiled that cheat sheet spent way more time researching trends and stats and targets and stuff. And guess what? They're not experts, either. It mostly comes down to luck, timing, and the player themselves. Meteorologists go to school for 6-7 years and they can't predict for sure whether it's going to rain tomorrow.

Who the hell knows? If it's wrong, at least you can blame the cheat sheet. Especially in the first few rounds, grab the top guy on your board. You don't want to take two quarterbacks in the first two rounds -- unless your league starts two -- but best player available is a sound strategy.

As mentioned above, the running back you get in Round 6 might be as good as a Round 2 guy, so take the wide receiver if he's ranked higher. Every time I've thought I out-foxed the competition and identified a super sleeper I've had a bad season. When I've trusted the cheat sheet, I've had a good season.

3. Use the Internet.

The Internet has really leveled the fantasy football playing field to the point where it really doesn't pay to have a "special list" of guys that you're targeting in each round. Everyone is working off the same, basic list, so it's pretty easy to peg a player that you want, look at alternates if he's gone, and have a decent sense for who's going to be available when you pick next. It has streamlined everything and it has made the work that you do after the draft and during the season that much more important.

Before you take a guy, especially if you think that he shouldn't be available in a given round, do a quick Google search or use the tools available to you if your draft is online and make sure he's not hurt or suspended or pending litigation. You should know that Wes Welker just hurt his neck, but you don't need to. It's on the Internet. Use it. Make sure you do that last little bit of research before you make your selection.

4. I always take my defense and my kicker in the last two rounds.

You may feel passionately about a particular kicker or a particular defense, but they fluctuate too much from year to year and, ultimately, there isn't a huge difference between the #1 defense and the #12 defense. There's less of a difference between the #1 kicker and the #12 kicker. And, more often than not, some kicker/defense comes out of nowhere each year and is available on waivers.

In one of my drafts last year, it was getting into the late, late rounds and I realized I hadn't picked a kicker yet.  I realized this because guys who had already filled out their roster were drafting back-up kickers.  It was an online draft, so I went to the Kickers tab and took the first guy I saw.  I thought I had it set up so that it would display the highest ranked guy first, but it was actually set to sort in alphabetical order.  I drafted a guy because his last name was lower in the alphabet.  That guy?  Matt Bryant, who was the fourth-best fantasy kicker in 2010 and scored only 15 fewer points than the number one guy (Sebastian Janikowski).

I needed to draft two defenses in 2008, so I picked them in the last two rounds.  I wound up with the Giants and the Steelers and they both scored well that season.

Additionally, the actual abbreviation for a defense is D/ST, which stands for Defense/Special Teams.  With the new kickoff rules taking away at least 20 percent of kickoff returns, that makes the Special Teams side of the equation less... well, special.

I don't like to commit to a higher pick than last and next-to-last for those reasons. I think I can find some "diamond in the rough" at RB or WR, or even possibly QB. In 2008, I drafted Kurt Warner in the 14th round. If I had drafted a defense instead, I would've missed out on Warner.

5. The later rounds are for taking chances.

Trust the cheat sheet early, but if you've got a guy that you "can't believe is still out there" or, for some strange reason, think that this is Ike Redman's year, take them late. If there's a guy that you think is going to be the starter in Week 1, they just haven't announced yet, take him before you take your kicker and your defense.

If they pan out (like Warner for me), then great. If not, you'll know early on that you can cut them and not worry about it. Every year, some quarterback or receiver or running back emerges from obscurity but no one wants to take a chance on him in Week 1. You can cut your failed experiment and pick up that guy.

6.  Someone will always want to go faster.


When I was 17 and first learning to drive, my Dad had me take about 100 miles of the stretch between LA and Las Vegas during a family trip.  That piece of road is basically the Autobahn of the west, so I was getting passed by everybody.  I sped up to about 80 because I was tired of getting passed and my Dad told me to slow down.  I said I was sick of getting passed up and that everyone else was speeding, too.  He said, "Slow down.  No matter how fast you go, there will be someone else that wants to go faster."

No matter how much research you do, how many fantasy football experts you follow on Twitter, how many Google Alerts you sign up for, someone else will want to go faster.

Don't be a slacker; do your research, perform your due diligence.  But, really, even the guys that work on this full time can't accurately predict the future.  You will miss an update and someone else will sign a guy you wanted.  There will be a number of guys that you didn't draft that end up making someone else's season.  Whatever you might win if you win the league isn't worth your job.  Just pump the brakes if you need to.


7. So, fill out your roster, get your back-ups, take a couple of long shots, then your kicker and defense.

In that order.

For IDP leagues (ones where you draft individual defensive players), here's what I usually do...

1. Draft your position guys, then draft priority defensive players, then draft back-ups, then fill in your roster.
2. But, if it's between a great back-up and a great defensive player, choose the great back-up. I've found you can pluck guys off the waiver wire without too much of a fall off.
3. Draft linebackers first and draft linebackers that get a lot of tackles. So, don't draft James Harrison or Terrell Suggs, because they'll get you 15 points one week, but .5 points the next. Brian Cushing (if he's not suspended), Patrick Willis, that middle linebacker for the Jets, even Ray Lewis. Look at the leaders for tackles last year and target the linebackers that were at the top of that list.
4. If you can't get Troy don't draft a safety.
5. Don't draft Revis or one of the big name cornerbacks. No one throws at those guys, so they never get any tackles. Target guys that can't cover and can't really catch... like the Steelers cornerbacks. They'll get a lot of passes defended and a lot of tackles. Also look at Cover 2 guys for the same reason, so the corners for Tampa, Chicago, Minnesota, and Indy.
6. Don't draft defensive tackles. At all. For the d-line, draft a guy that had at least ten sacks last year. Anything that your d-line adds is gravy after you get as much as you can from the more consistent and productive positions.

Winning the Draft Isn't the Only Thing, It's ONE Thing:

Your draft is, without a doubt, the most important single move you will make in your season.  But, it's only one move.  Say you pick up one free agent a week and there are another two guys you think about picking up, but don't.  Say you think about one trade a week and either make that trade or don't.  Say you change your line-up twice a week before it's finally set.  In a 16 game season -- hoping you make the playoffs -- that means that the draft is still #1 on the list, but it also means that the list is 97 items long.  Every move is important and every move can change your season.

You can have a great draft, but have a crappy season. You can have a crappy draft, but have a great season.  The rules listed above are super simple and pretty straightforward. I'm not the first person to think of those rules. Sure, I've adjusted over the years, but it's not rocket science. It's also mostly luck, remember that.

In 2008, my one buddy had, by all accounts, a great draft. He was able to keep a solid running back and drafted Tom Brady and Ronnie Brown, so his backfield and quarterback were set. Until Brady blew out his knee eight minutes into the season and Brown blew his out in Week 8. But, my friend still made the playoffs because he managed his team well. He dropped some guys and picked up other key guys. He made some trades. He completely overhauled his team.

My first fantasy football draft was a complete disaster. I drafted Travis Henry in the first round and Kerry Collins in the third round (after I drafted a quarterback in the second round, can't remember who that was). I still finished 7-7 because I was willing to gut my team and start over.

The next season, I came to the draft fully prepared, with last season's lessons learned.  I felt confident about my draft... and still finished 6-8.

Basically, that means your season isn't over when you finish drafting. It's not over when your star players go down with injuries. It's not over until... well, the season's over.

Don't be afraid to pull the trigger on that "breakout" free agent, even if you're sure that running back you took in the 13th round is this close to turning things around. Don't be afraid to kill your darlings.

That also means you need to stay on top of which players to pick up and which players to drop. Again, I like ESPN. They have a ton of free content on their fantasy football site. Matthew Berry is good.  Eric Karabell is solid, but he's on the conservative side.  Tristan Cockroft... I have to say I've never read one of his articles. I'm sure he's a fine analyst, but I can't get past the name.

I'm also an ESPN Insider, which is, I think, $40 a year.  There's a lot of Insider content that's useful and they also have something called The Answer Guys.  Once a week, you can ask The Answer Guys a question.  I usually ask them a line-up question -- who to start and who to bench.  If your league is big enough, that peace of mind can be worth it.  Additionally, they provide a lot of good information in the month leading up to the NFL draft, NFL free agency, and baseball's trade deadline. 

Which brings us to this: Try to have some fun. You're supposed to be having fun, DAMMIT.

Preseason Review: Falcons at Steelers

Well, I had to jinx Maurkice Pouncey.  I had to talk about how he's the best guy on the line and how he gives the line some much-needed stability.  Then, last night, he goes out and hurts his ankle.  His injury didn't seem as severe as the knee injury sustained by Keenan Lewis or Byron Leftwich's broken arm, but it's still significant.  If it's a high ankle sprain or a break, Pouncey probably won't be able to make it for the start of the regular season.

That's really the only bad news that came out of last night's game.  The defense gave up a lot of yards and seemed to be in full-on retreat mode for most of the first half, but they were able to (mostly) hold things together in the red zone.  The score could've gotten way more out of hand if they hadn't held the Falcons to field goals inside the 20.

It looks like Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White are all worth grabbing for Fantasy purposes.  White had eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown on ten targets in just the first half.  Jones would've had a much more productive night if he had been able to hang onto that 48-yard bomb from Ryan in the second quarter.  It also looks like Michael Turner will not have a productive season.  I know it's only the preseason and it's no time to panic, but he just looked slow to the hole and finished with 19 yards on seven carries.  He got 11 of those yards on one run.  With great blocking and a big hole, he wasn't able to explode into that hole the way he used to.  The old Michael Turner probably would've gained 30 yards or so when given that kind of opportunity.

Ultimately, I think this game came down to the fact that the Steelers made big plays when they had the opportunity and Atlanta did not.  If Jones hangs on to that touchdown, the game is very different.  If Antonio Brown isn't able to get his feet under him and split the safeties, he gets tackled before he can scamper off for a 77-yard touchdown.  I'm not discounting any of those plays.  The Steelers still had to make those plays and you can't look at this game without putting them in there.  But, the Falcons ran 86 plays to the Steelers' 51.  Atlanta had 25 first downs, the Steelers had 15.  I understand that the goal is to score in as few plays as possible, but this defense isn't going to hold together -- for an entire game or for the balance of the season -- if they have to face 86 plays every week.  On average, you give up a lot more than 16 points when you face 86 plays.

The Falcons were 10-for-20 on third downs.  That means that, not only did they convert on half of their opportunities, they also faced third down a full 20 times in this game.  That's a lot of chances for the Steelers to get off the field, but it's also way too many chances for the other team to stay on it.  If the first team played both halves on both sides, I have a feeling that the defense would have eventually caved in.  They actually did a good job of containing Ryan -- he completed only 52 percent of his passes, threw an interception, and his quarterback rating was 65.6 -- but they also let him throw 42 passes in the first half.  He had 42 attempts in one half of football.  Yes, Lewis went down in the first half and McFadden and Taylor didn't suit up for the game, but that's a ridiculously high number.  Teams are going to focus on spreading the Steelers out and throwing the ball all season, so I guess we had better get used to it.

I thought the offensive line played well in pass protection, especially considering that the Falcons were blitzing like crazy.  I also think that, after the last two weeks, the teams on the Steelers schedule this season realize that blitzing Ben Roethlisberger is a bad idea.  That's unfortunate, because most of the big plays he's made thus far came against the blitz.  I also think that the Atlanta coaches called that insane, jail break, Cover 0 blitz in the second quarter just to see what would happen.  I think the whole team came on that thing, with Mike Smith sprinting in from the sidelines.  I doubt we'll see that in their playbook once the 2011 season kicks off.

The bad news on the offensive line is that the same issue that has plagued the team since 2008 is still there: I doubt that we'll be able to run for one yard when we absolutely, positively need to.  Mendenhall didn't have a lot of room to run and his stats were padded by that touchdown on the first series (yes, I'm aware that it was a one-yard score, but I stick by what I said).  None of the running backs saw a lot of daylight, which means that this could be a passing offense that struggles in the red zone... kinda like how the Falcons looked last night.

On defense, I think the front seven is ready for the season to start.  Lewis -- if healthy -- and Gay have gained some valuable experience and the Steelers are going to need four quality cornerbacks if last night is any indication (and it is).  The secondary should be fine, provided Troy and Ryan Clark stay healthy, since they seem to be able to cover up for a lot of the shortcomings of the cornerbacks.

Of course, Antonio Brown is awesome.  He played an outstanding game and was running with the first team.  But, I think everyone needs to temper their optimism and realize that this is the preseason.  Yes, Brown had 246 total yards and two touchdowns last night, but Crezdon Butler also led the team in tackles and had a 95-yard interception return for a touchdown.  I believe that Brown has locked down the third receiver job and I think he's going to be very involved in the offense this season.

I also heard that, in a recent Fantasy Football draft, someone took Brown in the fourth round.  That is more than a little crazy.  The plays that Brown scored on last night both looked really familiar and I couldn't figure out why at first.  I eventually realized that they were kinds of plays usually called with Mike Wallace in mind.  I think that the Steelers coaches were testing Brown to see what he could do in those situations and they were very pleased with the results.  But, being pleased with the results and giving Wallace's touches to Brown are two different things entirely.  Ward and Wallace will still be the main guys in this group and they'll get most of the targets in the passing game.  It's good to know that Brown will be able to do a lot with the opportunities he gets when he gets them.

With one game left to go, I have to say they look pretty solid.  Let's just hope they escape next week without any major injuries.

What to Watch for: Falcons at Steelers

I always like the third preseason game, because it's more like an actual game than any other in the preseason.  The starters will get more time, maybe the starting five on the offensive line will be in the game deep into the third quarter, and you get a better sense for what the team will actually look like when the games start counting.  The fourth preseason game, the starters are usually only in for a series or two and it's pretty depressing to watch, since you know that everyone else involved in the game is playing for their job.

For tonight, I'm going to keep an eye on the following things:

1. I just mentioned the starting five on the offensive line.  But, really, the only position that's completely set is center.  With injuries, the release of Flozell Adams and Max Starks, and general ineffectiveness from the field, we're really not sure who's going to be in the line-up when the season kicks off against the hated Ravens on September 11th.  It would be really nice if a few guys stepped up in this game and gave us a clearer picture.  I'm also interested in finding out who they roll out as the five starters.  Then, of course, how those guys run block and pass protect.  I was impressed by how the collection of walking wounded and back-ups protected Roethlisberger in the second game and I'm hoping they can keep that up, whoever the four guys that are surrounding Pouncey are.
2. Keenan Lewis and William Gay played well against the Eagles and the reps they're getting with the first team will help the defense throughout the course of the season.  But, they're facing off against Roddy White and Julio Jones tonight and that's some tough competition.  I would like to hope that they won't get burned, but I have a bad feeling that they will regress.  Since there's no doubt that they read this blog and are wondering what I have to say, I'm officially issuing a challenge to Lewis and Gay to step up their games and play well tonight.  It's on, guys.  See you at Jack's after the game so we can break down the film.
3. I like the signing of Jerricho Cotchery, but I'm concerned that he wasn't running with the first team in the last game.  Hopefully, he'll be running with them tonight and I can get a better look at him.  With Cotchery, Wallace, Ward, a healthy Emmanuel Sanders, Heath Miller, and the way Antonio Brown has been developing, this could be a very, very potent passing offense.  That's provided, of course, that the offensive line can keep Roethlisberger upright.
4. I want to see how much gas Michael Turner has left in the tank, strictly for Fantasy purposes.  He got a late start in his career, but it seems like he already has a lot of miles on him.  He's pushing 30, which is like 85 in running back years, so it will be good to see how he performs against a great run defense like the Steelers.
5. Similarly, I'm going to have an eye on Matt Ryan, Jones, and White.  Atlanta traded their entire draft to get Jones and I want to see if he's as good as advertised.  The Falcons have no shortage of offensive talent, either, and all those guys are on my Fantasy watch list.
6. The linebackers all have their story lines and I want to keep an eye on them. LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons both signed huge deals in the offseason.  I want to see if they'll try to go out and earn that money or if they'll sit back and spend the rest of the contract counting it.  James Harrison had a rough offseason and he turned 33 in May.  James Farrior took a big step back in 2009 after a solid 2008 and he turned 36 in January.  Surprisingly, I'm not that worried about the defensive line, since they have plenty of quality, young depth, even if the average age of the starting three is death.
7. On both sides, I want to watch timing.  It has seemed off thus far this preseason -- which is understandable, considering that there weren't any team-sponsored practices in the offseason -- but all NFL team have had a few weeks to get that ironed out.  Really, I'm watching to see if it's still pretty far off and timing issues will drag out into the regular season.

I usually try to figure out what the Steelers need to do to win the game, but I have to say that I don't care if they win or lose this one.  I'm just watching out for the items discussed above.

Five Random Thoughts

Here are five items that weren't long enough to be a full post...

1. I think the Terrell Pryor suspension is bogus and it's not just because he's from here.  I understand if the NCAA wants to do something to him or if Ohio State wants to negate his college credits that he accrued while attending the university.  I don't understand why the NFL has any jurisdiction.  Pryor is an adult now and he has moved on from whatever happened in college.  If any employer judged me on what I did in college right after I graduated, I would not have gotten my first job.  Or, maybe, I would've gotten the job, it's just that I would be suspended for about a year.
2. Thinking about the Pryor thing, it seems to me that we've just witnessed a very corrupt era in college football that dates back at least to Reggie Bush.  Everyone has been punished.  There has, essentially, been another SMU Death Penalty handed out.  Hopefully, that will keep everything clean for a little while.  It seems like, for the past decade or so, if you ain't cheatin' you ain't playin'.  That's bad for the NCAA, so I think they will take swift and extreme measures to fix the problem (and they already have in a lot of ways).
3. From the Captain Obvious Desk, ESPN posted an article today suggesting that the Indianapolis Colts waited too long to think about life without Peyton Manning.  Manning makes that whole team go.  For years -- basically since they started deluding themselves into believing that Jim Sorgi was a suitable back-up -- they have been one torn ACL or other severe injury away from destroying the team's season.  The time to address this issue wasn't six months ago, it was several years ago.  They needed to have a Charlie Batch on the roster since about 2007 and they didn't get it done.  Now, they face the consequences.
4. I think the new kickoff rule favors the Steelers significantly.  Not only does it even field position since they haven't had a solid kick returner in several years, but it makes it so that teams will need to drive 80 yards on the Steeler defense in order to score.  That's huge, since one of the things that wore the defense out/led to more points being scored last season, was the fact that the coverage team was not great and usually set up the opposing team at about the 35 or 40 yard line.  If Steeler kickers can register touchbacks, that sets the defense up for success.  As an aside, Peter King Tweeted last week that 79.5 percent of kickoffs were returned in 2010 and that, if that number fell to 60 percent, it wouldn't be a big deal.  That's kind of shocking, since that's taking away 20 percent of all kickoff returns.  Remember, there's one at the beginning of each half and one after each score.  Let's say, on average, there are eight kickoffs a game.  With 16 teams playing 16 games a week, that's 256 games and 2048 kickoffs a year.  Take 20 percent off that and you're taking away about 410 kickoffs a year. I would say that's a big deal.
5. I think that Clint Hurdle has done a great job as a manager this year.  Let me say that right off the bat.  I think the team is languishing about 15-20 games under .500 at this point in the season without his energy and motivation.  Having said that, he's either reading a book called "Managing a Baseball Team for Dummies" or he's playing it safe.  Since he seems like a sharp dude, the smart money is on the second one.  But, he always goes for lefty-lefty match-ups when making pitching decisions, always stacks the line-up with right handed batters when a lefty is pitching, and always bunts when there are runners on first and second with less than two outs.  All these decisions are made regardless of the situation.  They're all smart decisions percentage-wise, but decisions can't be made in a vacuum.  I've seen him bring in Joe Beimel when the starter was still going strong.  I've seen him call for a bunt with Andrew McCutchen -- the team's best hitter -- at the plate with two men on and less than two outs.  He did the same thing with Alex Presley when Presley had an OPS over 1.000.  The thing Hurdle needs to realize is that he's playing with house money.  He kept the Pirates relevant well into July and, in the eyes of the fans, can do no wrong.  He can't win the division or the wild card at this point, so he needs to focus on building the confidence of the players.  If he's confident in them, they'll be confident in themselves.  Let a pitcher work his way out of a jam.  Leave a hot hitter in the line-up even if he bats on the left side and the pitcher you're facing happens to be left handed.  Let Cutch and Presley hit.  Let your starter work his way out of a jam.  If you lose, you lose the game.  Losing games is not a new thing for the Pirates; confident players are a new thing.  Hurdle is playing it too safe and should let his guys win or lose the game based on their efforts, not what the book says. 

Preseason Game 2 Review

I have to come clean.  I didn't watch the first preseason game.  The Arena Bowl was on (read Weidman's review, because it's awesome), then I went out of town for the rest of the weekend, then I didn't watch the recording because I read a lot about the game and figured I knew enough from that.

Also in the interest of full disclosure: I'm started this at halftime of the Steelers-Eagles game, because the second half will mostly just determine whether the third and fourth string guys for the Steelers are better than the third and fourth string guys for Philly.  In this game, at least, the first string guys for the Steelers dominated.

What I Liked:

1. Hey, so, we all know that Michael Vick had a really crappy game.  He looked lost and he forced several passes into double coverage.  The key for the Steeler defense is that they made him pay for those mistakes.  One of the biggest issues last year's unit had was that they didn't force a lot of turnovers.  Even if it was the preseason and Vick looked like he just graduated from Virginia Tech, it was still nice to see.
2. Troy sure doesn't look like he's coming back from an injury.  He was all over the place.  If it weren't for a pretty nice tackle by Vick, maybe Troy goes all the way on that interception return.  Credit for that interception should go to LaMarr Woodley, though.  Dude's supposed to be a rush linebacker, but he was 25 yards back in coverage and pivoted, jumped, and threw his arm up to tip that ball so Troy could pick it.
3. Lots of nice pressure, mostly by rushing just four guys.  The blitzes, when they came, were well timed and pretty exotic.  I didn't know Ryan Clark was allowed to blitz.  Turns out getting juked out of a sack was the best thing that could've happened on that play (led to the Polamalu interception after Vick scrambled).  Clark also did a good job of playing possum, then jumping on the ball on his interception (another throw into double coverage by Vick).
4. Defensive line should be in real good shape -- especially Casey Hampton and I'm sorry I said he'd check in at 400 pounds after the lockout -- and should be able to weather the injury when Aaron Smith goes on IR in Week 8.
5. Maybe the injuries to Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden have a silver lining.  Keenan Lewis and William Gay got a lot of reps against Philly's first team offense and they looked sharp.
6. Ben Roethlisberger has very strong hands. Mrs. Roethlisberger and a number of ladies in the Atlanta area are probably already aware of this fact, but I want to mention it.  That was a brilliant pump fake on the Antonio Brown touchdown.
7. The offense, in general, looked great.  Lots of nice holes for Mendenhall and Redman, Roethlisberger had ample time when the Eagles didn't jail break blitz, and Brown seems like he's progressing nicely.  This was against was it supposed to be a top five defense.  I know, it's only the preseason, but it was still encouraging.
8. As happy as I was when Baron Batch was drafted and as much as I wanted him to replace Mewelde Moore as the team's third down back, I have to admit that Moore looked good.  Maybe, possibly, Mendenhall or Redman or Batch would've scored on that wheel route Moore caught when Philadelphia overloaded the right side on third and short in the second quarter.  But, hey, he caught the ball and he gained a bunch of yards, setting up that second touchdown.  As bummed as I am that Batch blew out his knee and ended up on injured reserve, I'm happy that Moore seems to have found the Fountain of 2008 and looks to be back to his old tricks.
9. Arnaz Battle is still alive, which adds depth at receiver and helps the Steelers out on special teams.
10. Time of possession in the first half was almost 24 minutes to six.  With an old defense, those long drives will pay off over the balance of the season.

What I Didn't Like:

What's not to like about a first half that ends with the Steelers holding a 21-0 lead?  This is more like a list of things that concern me.

1. Why isn't Jerricho Cotchery working with the first team?  Is he hurt?  Taking a long time to learn the system?  Past his prime?  I know it takes time to learn a new system, but some dude named Tyler Grisham was working as the fourth wide receiver.  Maybe there's nothing to it, but you gotta think that Cotchery should be able to beat out some kid... unless he's got nothing left in the tank.
2. Where was Mike Wallace?  I know he was on the field.  I saw him and everything.  But, zero catches for zero yards.  I still think he's a fantastic receiver with a tremendous future ahead of him.  My only issue is that he might have a down year this year.  With all the injuries along what was already a pretty depleted offensive line, I have to assume that the Steelers aren't going to throw deep a lot in 2011.  If they don't, that takes a whole lot of targets away from Wallace.  Fewer targets means fewer opportunities means fewer catches means fewer yards means fewer touchdowns.  Right now, the Steelers seem to be running a "Clear and Sweep" offense, where they send Wallace deep, half the secondary follows him, and then they pick the defense apart with routes under 15 yards.  Judging by tonight's results, this doesn't appear to be a bad thing for the offense in general, but it's not a good leading indicator for Wallace, especially for fantasy purposes.
3. Injuries.  Jonathan Scott and Marcus Gilbert both left the game with knee problems and Redman hurt his ankle.  Given those injuries, I would think that Tomlin would want to get his first team defense off the field after a strong showing.  He didn't.  So, that concerns me.
4. Even though Gay and Lewis played well, the pass defense will suffer if Taylor and McFadden can't be back for the start of the season.
5. Man, I sure hope Shaun Suisham is OK.  I was not impressed by Swayze Waters.
6. Second Half Note: Dennis Dixon threw a lot of fluttering, helicopter passes.  Some balls had some nice zip on them.  But, I wouldn't say he's in a position to demand a trade so he can compete for a starting job or a top back-up job.

All in all, a strong follow-up to what I read was a pretty dismal effort against the Redskins.  It's too early to start designing the Super Bowl rings just yet, but tonight's game was certainly promising.

Arena Bowl XXIV Results - One for the ages

The Arena season is officially over, and it went out with a roar, not a whimper.

This game was billed as a match-up between the to biggest powerhouses in the league, in what promised to be a no-holds barred, knock-down, drag-out, high-scoring slugfest - and it was, in every possible way. This was the highest-scoring Arena Bowl in history, with a combined total 143 points, with the margin of victory of only 3 points.

Coming into this game, I was worried about a few things. For one, I didn't think that Jacksonville's defense was up to the task. Jacksonville did not turn out to be at a disadvantage here, as the defenses were very evenly matched. Although both teams were successful on third downs (5/7 both ways), neither was able to convert a forth down. Only the other hand, both teams were five for six in red zone attempts. So, neither was that impressive when it comes down to it - just matched. However, Jacksonville was able to force several fumbles and snag the game's one pick. The fact of the matter is, Garcia was able to counter Arizona's strong defense, while at the same time, his team was able to pull out the big plays.

The other major thing - and this was the major, major one - was Garcia's age, how much he, and, by extension the rest of the team - had left in the tank. Ultimately, it was proven that the answer was "enough." He came out of the gate firing, and completed 12/14 passing attempts. The opening half saw the Sharks put up 32 points to Arizona's 35 - the difference coming because of missed PATs. The third quarter - as is very common in this league - was slow for both teams. The difference is that Garcia started looking tired at this point. He went on a run of incomplete passes (that really effected his overall numbers for the game) and I started to worry that this was it; age was catching up with him.

I was wrong.

Jacksonville ended up putting up 35 points in the forth - an Arena Bowl record - with 3 scores coming in the final 90 seconds. Arizona put up 28 themselves, but it wasn't enough. With only 2 seconds left in the game, Garcia fired one at the end zone, connecting with Jeron Harvey and putting this beast to bed.

I don't want to take anything away from Nick Davila of Arizona. His nearly 340 yards, 8 touchdowns and only one interception is a credit to him and his team. Add in another 2 rushing, and you have the recipe for success. Against any other quarterback, that would have enough to absolutely crush the opponent. It as just his bad luck to play Jacksonville this year. Garcia clocked over 400 yards, no interceptions, was nearly perfect if you ignore that third-quarter slump, and helped the team score 10 touchdowns.

The list of records set in this game is far long too recount here and can be found elsewhere on the web, but there's some that I'd like to address for Mr. Garcia. His passing yards are a league record in the Arena Bowl, and his career passing yards are also a league record. The same can be said for the total touchdowns of the game and career. His attempts and completions in this game are second only to one Kurt "Greatest Show on Turf" Warner. This is a very important fact, as Warner was announced as an AFL Hall of Fame inductee at half time (sure to be one of the few to be in for both the AFL and NFL someday.)

After the final whistle, seeing Garcia standing on the field with his three kids - his eldest daughter crying at his side - one couldn't help but assume that this was it. With 17 years in the league, crossing the big 4-0 barrier, well over 1000 touchdowns, yards few can hope to touch and now - finally - that illusive title ring, what does he have left to prove? Despite the shameful booing of the Arizona fans (the downside of championships being played with home-field advantage) no one could ever take that glorious moment away from him, and I'd be surprised to see him come back next season.

So, that's it for 2011. It was a great season with a lot of great games, made even better that we had a home team to root for. In just a few weeks, we're back to regular season "real" football. Watching a bit of the preseason this weekend, I can't help but get my late-summer reminder that the NFL is somehow less intimate, less about the fun. The high stakes seriousness of it is what makes it awesome, but it's always nice to have a few months of a game that can be viewed as just that - a game.

Thank you all for reading for these last 21 weeks, and I hope you'll come back again next year. Now, say tuned for the "n'at" to step back for the Steelers and Mr. Keller's coverage.

Conference Game Reviews and Arena Bowl XXIV Preview

Another week is in the books, and the Arena Bowl teams are set. This week gave us odd times, but good football. Both games in the Conference Finals were very entertaining and prove that Friday night is going to be fun as hell.

National Conference Final

Arizona hosted the Chicago rush Friday night at way-too-damn-late o'clock. The game had a rocky start for both teams, so much so that I actually wondered if there was something wrong with the balls. Both teams fumbled the ball on their first drive, and even my wife said, “Really? These are the good teams?” However, both teams redeemed themselves by scoring in short order – Chicago in impressive fashion when Jason Simpson returned a kickoff 56 yards.
 

Things were relatively even the rest of the first half with Arizona going into the locker-room with a 9-point lead. The 3^rd quarter is where everything changed when the Rattlers put up 13 and shut the Rush out.

However, this is where Arizona showed their weakness of overconfidence. You could tell by the end of the third that they were starting to lay back and take it easy. Problem is, Chicago didn't feel the same way.

The forth quarter saw the Rush put up 29 points to Arizona's 13 – the highest scoring quarter for either team. At the end of the half, Chicago was only down 6 points and had the ball with seconds left on the clock. Everyone in the world – including those not even interested in this sport – could see the on-side kick coming. 

Thing is, Chicago didn't. Surprising everyone, including the return team, Chicago kicked it deep. With no one there, the Rush charged down the field and attempted to recover in the end zone. A player from both teams fell on it, and the call was so close that it had to be reviewed – Rattlers ball. Game over.

Both teams gave it their best, and the score was close, but the fact of the matter is that Arizona played a much better game. The only reason things ended up as close as they did was because the Rattlers slacked off in the third. 

For one thing, their defense was incredible this game and mostly shut Raterink down. I realize that “shut down” is operative here, as he had 187 yards and three touchdowns. But, considering Chicago turned the ball over five times during the game and didn't score for a whole quarter, they were well shut down.

The pairing of Nick Davila and Jason Geathers was the true story on the field. Davila put up huge numbers with a 50% completion ratio, over 280 yards and a whopping 7 touchdowns. Geathers caught the ball 10 times for 150 yards and 4 TD's. They were just an unholy force and proved that Rats were the team that deserves to play Friday night.

American Conference Final

Monday night in prime-time, the Jacksonville Sharks hosted the Georgia Force in a game that was more competitive than I'd expected it to be. Where-as the National game had less than 7,000 people in attendance and seemed like less, Jacksonville had over 10K and seemed like more. The crowd was fired up, and it showed. At least two plays went against the Sharks because of fan interference – including one where a guy in the front row of the end zone assaulted the returner from Georgia.
 

Look, I'm all about fanhood, and I'm all about getting into it – but some things go too far. Had this guy been wearing a Sharks jersey, he would have gotten called for a personal foul, holding and a facemask. Leave the rough-housing to the guys making $400 a game, mkay? End of digression.

Early on, the Sharks lost their center – who has started every game in the two years the Jacksonville has had a team – and you could see that it threw Garcia off, but they recovered well. Unlike in the National game, there was no clear-cut dominating team in this game. Offense ruled the night, and the score climbed steadily. It took until the third quarter before either team managed a stop when Jacksonville got a turnover on downs to take the ball away from Georgia. The closest that Georgia came to a stop was when they forced a 36 yard field goal attempt late in the 4^th. The kick was about as perfect as possible.

As this was a story of offense, the main characters were the quarterbacks, which were about as even as possible. Both men put up 313 yards and 8 touchdowns and got sacked once. Darnel Kennedy of Georgia was the only one to fire an interception (which actually lost the game for him) and had slightly more attempts with less completions. However, this is fairly elementary, as the numbers were otherwise too close to call.

The stud receivers in this game were Maurice Purify (GA) and Jeff Hugely (JAX). Both had over 150 yards and 3 touchdowns. In this game, both QB's were more likely to spread it around than to have one “go-to” guy, so their receivers were both three deep and gave flexibility.

Neither team in this game slacked off, and both played a full four. Honestly, whichever team won would have equally deserved to represent their conference in the Arena Bowl. In the end, however, the Jacksonville Sharks pulled it out with an interception with only 14 seconds left on the clock. Final score, 64-55 Sharks.

Arena Bowl XXIV

So, there it is: As I called weeks ago, the Arena Bowl this year will see Jacksonville facing off against Arizona. This is going to be a story of age and experience, with different versions going to each team.

Jacksonville is reaching the big game in only their second season in existence. This is an impressive feat, and one that was well-earned with their early-to-mid season records. However, before this, the farthest they'd made it was the divisional round last year where they lost. Arizona, on the other hand, has been to six Arena Bowls and won two of them in their storied career.

In a sport where year-to-year a team can change 100%, does this really matter? Yes it does. Having been there puts a different mindset in a team, even if the players themselves haven't been. Having gone several times and won a few increases this. Think about it this way: The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost two out of their last four Super Bowls, however, the money is generally on them, either in Vegas or simply in popular opinion. Why? Because they'd already won four. Guys that were in grade school or not even born during those games were being given the benefit of the doubt because of the careers of guys that would be comfortably watching their games from ESPN's studio. It might not make a lot of sense, but the psychological edge goes to the team with the history.

Age is a bit more murky. Nick Davila is 26 and in his third year in the league. Aaron Garcia is 40 and has been in the league a staggering 17 years. Experience is without a doubt in his favor, that can't be argued – but age isn't. This season, Jacksonville, in stunning fashion, went on a 13-game winning streak, just owning the league...but as the season went on, the strain became evident. Although they've been doing very well in the playoffs, the Sharks dropped 3 out of their last 5 games. Monday night, Garcia was just looking tired during the game and I wonder how much is left in the tank. Davila, on the other hand, has lead the Rattlers on a steady, win-more-than-you-lose season that was nothing if not consistent. This consistency speaks to an endurance that is going to be critical when they play the 21^st game of the season this week.

Everything else is a catchall kind of category that doesn't favor the Sharks. For one thing, Arizona is at home, which is an obvious advantage. Jacksonville will be facing a multi-hour time change, many miles from home in unfamiliar territory. Add to that the fact that the Rattlers will have had two extra days of rest, and there is an unfair lopsidedness to this. Furthermore, in addition to the things stated above, the QB/Receiver combo of Davila/Geathers is much, much more dominating than Garcia/best man open. Granted, Garcia shows a flexibility that will be very important when his team only really needs to target one guy – but AZ just has a powerhouse there. 

Finally, Arizona is a much more complete team. Their defense is as solid as their offense, and Jacksonville just doesn't play a lot of defense.

Look, I'm rooting for the Sharks. I love a story, and this one is all about an aging gunslinger coming back for “just one more season” who wants a ring to cap off an unbelievable, record-setting, hall-of-fame-earning season. The problem is, Arizona is a more complete, longer-running team with the better all around package. If Garcia and crew wants to pull this off, he's going to have to dig deep-down inside and find his “have-to.”

Gary Busey frowns on my obscure reference

Tune in Friday for one last game of Arena Ball for the season to see who takes it all home. This bad boy will be nationally broadcast on the NFL network and should be a lot of fun.

The Other Shoe

We've all been waiting for the other shoe to drop for the Pirates.  We were waiting in late May when stats started popping up about how they hadn't been over .500 this late in the season since George W. Bush's first term.  We were waiting in late June when it seemed impossible that they could win another close game with clutch bullpen help and timely hitting.  We were waiting for them to collapse right before the All-Star break.  We were waiting for them to collapse right after the All-Star break.

Then came that crucial 13 game string against strong competition.  We were sure that they would fall apart then.  They were actually far enough above .500 that a rough streak against good teams wouldn't hurt them too much in the standings.  Then the 19th inning debacle against the Braves.  Then the Phillies swept the Buccos at Philly.  But, that could actually be excused.  It wasn't so much that Philadelphia excused the Pirates as a shoddy club.  It was that the Philadelphia Phillies announced, emphatically, that they are a really, really good team.  So much so that ESPN.com took a look at other great NL teams of the last 30 years to see how the Phillies stack up.

As the saying goes, though, one sweep does not a ten game losing streak make.  That's a saying, right?  No?  Well, it is now.

The Pirates got crushed in consecutive home series by the Cubs and Padres.  The rotation had an extremely bad run, the bullpen imploded, the hitting was not-so-timely, and the offense is not built to score ten or more runs in any game.  For anyone that thought Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick were going to save this line-up, I have some Bear Sterns stock I would like to sell you.  Leave your PayPal information in the comments.

Bad news is that they didn't get Hunter Pence.  A real team with genuine playoff aspirations and deep pockets got him.  Good news is that they gave up a player to be named later and some cash for two old guys that are helping -- and will help -- the offense, if for no other reason than they make it easier for Clint Hurdle to set his line-up against lefties.  Also, we were able to finally, mercifully, put the Lyle Overbay Experiment to sleep.  It's kinda funny that he went to go live on a farm, in Indianapolis.

The thing is that it would be mean -- and inaccurate -- to characterize this team as just the "Same Old Pirates."  This is a team that captured our imagination from late May through the beginning of Steeler training camp.  They gave us something that Pirate fans have not felt in a very long time: Hope.  Many casual fans have jumped off the bandwagon.  That's fine.  There will be plenty of room for them the same time next year.

This is a young deep with a fairly strong minor league system.  Charlie Morton, James McDonald and possibly Paul Maholm and Jeff Karstens should only get better.  Neil Walker, Chase D'Arnaud, Brandon Wood, Alex Pressley, and possibly even Andrew McCutchen will get better.  There's always the hope that Brad Lincoln will pan out.  I think that Gerrit Cole will contribute sooner, rather than later, in a Stephen-Strasburg-but-not-needing-Tommy-John-surgery kind of way.

The Buccos went from sucking, to not sucking, to overachieving, to just plain achieving in a little over half a season.  To say that they've regressed to their former, sucking ways in just seven games is jumping the gun.  They're not going to win the division.  They're not going to win the wild card.  But, dammit, they stayed relevant up through when camp opened in Latrobe, and that's significant.

I know that Hurdle thinks that 500 is just a number, but that's the most realistic number that this team has left.  It's the number that the fans -- fair weather or not -- have been thinking about since Clinton left office.  That's all they have and that's where they need to get.  In a season full of ups and downs, breaking even would be a huge victory.

AFL Playoffs: First Round Recap

It was a great weekend of playoff action, not that the media really wanted us to know. Being that they are on the NFL Network this year instead of ESPN, only one game was aired - the rest were online. Also, that one that was aired got bumped because of the NFL lockout ending, and it wasn't shown until midnight Saturday.

Even so, the games went on. Half the teams advanced, half the teams went home, and everyone ended up where they should have.

Dallas Vigilantes at Chicago Rush

Just a few weeks ago, these two teams met up to determine who got home field advantage in the first round. Winning this, Chicago got a double bonus: First, they got to play at home, and second, they knew that they'd just beaten this same team two games earlier. Even though Michna was still injured, they knew that they could do it with Raterink anyway.

In the beginning, Dallas was maintaining a slight lead in the give-and-take between the teams, thanks to an early field goal. Starting in the second half, Chicago started to assert their dominance on the field before coming back with 13 unanswered points in the third.

Throughout the game, both quarterbacks retained respectable numbers, getting over 250 yards, 6 touchdowns and completing about 2/3 of their passes. Also, neither QB got picked during the game. Even with a slight edge in rushing for Dallas, the teams were evenly matched.

So who won in the end? For that, I want you to think back to what I said after we played Dallas. I said it then, and I'll say it now: Clint Dolezel is a go big or go home kinda guy. I can respect that, but I don't have to agree with it. At the end of this game, they had a chance to kick a close field goal and tie the game, or they could go for a touchdown on 4th and win. Guess which he did?

Guess who gets to play next week.


Arizona Rattlers vs Spokane Shock

One of this season's dominant teams faced off against the defending Arena Bowl champs in a game that really felt like an, "Alright, let them play to feel good about themselves" game. The Shock barely got into the playoffs in the first place and struggled this season. At 9-9, they ended with the same record the Power did when they didn't get to go to the playoffs in a weak division. Also feeling our pain, they struggled often this year, whereas the Rattlers dominated the National Conference, and it showed on the field.

Having split the series this year against their division rivals, it still wasn't a sure thing for the Rattlers going into this game. At the beginning, it was looking ugly for both teams with a total of 5 turnovers. In many ways, it looked like Spokane had control, as they capitalized on their turnovers and their QB Rowley put up much better numbers than Davila - but the Rattlers came back with a slow and steady attack that has carried them through the season.

The old rule of turnovers losing games reared its head for Spokane, because in the end, Rowley threw 4 picks where Davila only threw two. In the end, it was 62-33 Arizona, completely wiping that struggling first half out of anyone's minds.

Arizona advances to play Chicago next week at home.

Jacksonville Sharks vs the Orlando Predators.

This game was meant to be ugly from the beginning. Both teams hate each other on many levels, and when they met last year - with Jacksonville top-seeded then as well - the Preds sent them packing. However, the outcome wasn't surprising given their series history this year.

The main surprise of this game was how effective the Orlando defense was at keeping Garcia contained. He was held to less than 150 yards and only got off 19 attempts. However, in those 19 attempts, he completed 15 of them and snagged 4 touchdowns. On the other side, however, Hill blasted out over 300 yards and six TDs, four of them going to the unmatchable Quiroga and TT Toliver.

Jacksonville's win came on the backs of their solid, solid defense and their running game. Their D forced a fumble as well as stopping the Preds 5 times on 3rd downs and 2 out of 3 4ths. Their rushing game accounted for 3 touchdowns, which is a rare feat between top-flight teams - and these both are.

In the end, the Sharks win their first playoff game, the Preds lose to them for the third time this season, the rivalry gets really ugly and the Preds wish a (publicly) fond farewell to their Coach O'Hara. This last part is a bit of a bummer for me, as I dug his style. It was ballsy, in your face, it got them to the playoffs and beat the crap out of us.

Regardless - The Sharks stick around for another week.

Georgia Force vs the Cleveland Gladiators.

Oh, balls - who really cares? Both these teams beat us and we didn't get to go to the playoffs because of them.  In a perfect world, they all would have gotten food poisoning before the game and drew straws to see which team got to get beat up by the Sharks next week.

After a promising first half full of scoring and turnovers, the Glads looked to be sitting pretty. However, after that, the Force shut them down. Off-again-on-again Rocco showed his colors by getting just beat all over the place in the second half, and he was kept off the board until the forth when Cleveland mounted a strong, but ultimately unsuccessful comeback. I say "Cleveland" and not "Rocco," because he got some bench time and a fresh Dutton came in.

He lit the field up with the old standbys of Bergeron and Redd, and put up over a hundred yards. Again, it wasn't enough. With the O line letting Rocco get hit so many times that he lost his cool - not to mention a goose egg for a score in the third - this game ended 50-41.

Not a lot more can be said about this game except that the better team won. When we played the Force, they were a solid team that sent us home. When we played Cleveland, it was split 50/50. They only made it into the playoffs because we fell apart at the end of the season. This isn't really a comment on either team - I think we would have lost in this round had we gone. However, it still points up the fact that, when Cleveland is good, they're great. When they're bad, they fall apart. With rare exceptions like the Philly game, it's not the defense that falls apart, though - it's the offense. They slack and let Rocco get hit, and once that pressure comes, he can't function any more.

Good luck in Jacksonville next week, Force.


Next Week:

Arizona vs Chicago: As much as I've always liked Chicago – after all, they're my non-Power team – I don't think they have a chance. They'll have a slight one if Michna makes it back, but it's still slim. I called it a while back that I saw Arizona and Jacksonville playing for the title, and I don't see any reason to change that opinion.

Arizona is a solid, reliable team with a proven track record. Whereas Jacksonville dominated most of the season, then slacked, then came back, Arizona has been sure and steady. This is their time. Chicago handed them one of their few loses this season, but it was only by a point and Arizona is the better team on many fronts. Adding to this, Chicago has a reputation of choking that would make Peyton Manning blush. The fact that they got past week one is a big accomplishment.

Jacksonville vs Georgia: A few weeks ago, I would have given this one to the Sharks, no questions asked. But after losing to the Sabercats, and going one for four in their last games, anything is possible. All through the season, the American South was a tough division, and the Force only finished 3 games behind their rivals.

However, I'm going to go with my old standby of history. Jacksonville swept the series between these two teams, and probably will again. 

To beat the drum some more: Jacksonville will square off against Arizona in two weeks.