Thursday, June 28, 2012

Power at Barnstormers Preview

Ah, rematches. They're a chance to see if you've learned from mistakes, or in the case of a win, a chance to see if you've gotten too cocky. Either way, it's an opportunity to exorcise demons and give it another go.

The last few weeks have been a solid line of rematches, and unfortunately, they have not gone well for us. (I mean, except for the Gladiators, but that doesn't really count.) The good news is that the Barnstormers have a losing record and are pretty much out of the running for the playoffs. (Maybe not mathematically, but things would have to go very badly for several teams for it to happen.) Neither of us really have anything on the line but pride. Since they already beat us once, I'm going to stretch the definition of it a bit and say that pride's on our side.

In many ways, we're a different team than we were the last time we played, so things might turn out differently. Hines was our QB and Wagner was our kicker. Hymes was just starting out with the team, replacing a fan favorite in DeWalt. PJ Berry had been struggling in the first two games and was starting to break out. Most importantly, we had a different coach.

Stingley is still a question mark for me. He doesn't make the boneheaded calls that Siegfried did and he actually seems to have confidence in a quarterback (Randall will be starting again.) However, as can be seen in this extremely creepy conference, he still doesn't seem comfortable in the role of head coach. Another entry in the plus column is that he knows Coach Ho well. He's an unpredictable coach, but knowing him has got to dial that in a bit.

Last time we played, we lost by two touchdowns, which is A.) fairly close and B.) pretty damn good considering there were 5 turnovers. We've been averaging less than that since then (although it's still an issue) so if we can keep a lid on that, we have a better chance.

The other big problem is that the Barnstomers' defense ran all over us. The good news is that Sione Ohuafi is supposed to be back at center, which is a position our offense has been very weak at. Bad center means worse protection for Randall. Worse protection for Randall means that he gets pressured. When Randall gets pressured, he gets sacked and/or turns the ball over. I know this sounds like a DirectTV commercial, but it's the progression of events.

If we can keep the ball, force a few turnovers of our own and protect Randall, we might have a chance to get another win on our season.

Elsewhere in the league

Full disclosure - I have a feeling my picks might go about 50% this week. Just some ugly choices to make.
  • Starting out is Philly at Tampa Bay. Tampa's only lost at home once, and the Soul don't need to play a single game the rest of the season if they don't want to...but I don't think they know how to lay down. Look for Philly to win and Tampa to start planning picnics in late July.
  • Assuming it doesn't get flexed, the Game of the Week this week is Milwaukee at Cleveland in an important division game. Cleveland needs this win big time. Losing this one puts the Mustangs at the same record as them and splits the series. Both teams are still in the hunt, and this could decide their post season hopes. The Gladiators have now dropped 5 in a row, so it'd be easy to pick the Mustangs...but they're on the road, they've already lost to the Gladiators and Cleveland needs to repair their image at home and on the national stage. I'm pulling for the Mustangs because screw the Gladiators, but my gut tells me Cleveland has this.
  • Arizona will secure the division with a win in Spokane and a Sabercats loss. Easy to write, hard to pull off. Rowley still has gas in the tank this season and the Rattlers can't just smile and walk away with the win. When they last played in Arizona, the Ratts barely came away with the win. I hate to pick against them, but I think Arizona will have the loss.
  • Finally, an easy choice - KC loses to the Talons.
  • The game to watch this week if you can is Jacksonville at New Orleans. Tied records separated by one head-to-head. Winner jumps ahead to the top of the division (for this week, at least.) Normally, home team would be the tie-breaker here, but there's still a stigma attached to the Voodoo at home. So, instead, I'm going with the quarterback. So long as Rocco doesn't beat himself with the stupid mistakes he makes when he gets cocky, he's better than Bernie Mo. Take the Voodoo, cautiously.
  • In the crowded 8PM slot, the Chicago Rush host the San Jose Sabercats. Both teams need this win pretty badly, and both teams are known for dropping stupid games that they shouldn't. This is a case where the close call most certainly goes with the home team - the Rush haven't lost at Allstate Arena yet this season.
  • Final game of the week is Sunday at 3 and should be fun spoiler-bait. The Predators came damn close to beating the Voodoo last week, and they have a shot at making things sticky for Georgia. It was a close, low-scoring game last time they played. I think I'm going to be wild and crazy and pick Orlando. Yep - gonna throw caution to the wind. I'm a wild man.

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