OK, here's the thing: I'm 95% sure I'm going to watch Breaking Bad at 9 p.m. on Sunday instead of watching the Steeler game. I'll most likely record the game and watch that hour of it later -- with the bonus of avoiding the 15 or so commercial breaks that NBC is probably going to jam into the first half, while the game is still competitive -- but I think I've convinced myself that watching Breaking Bad is a better use of my time. I know that I'm going to enjoy it, that I'm going to be entertained, and that, with all the updates and spoilers I'm going to see on the Internet, it makes more sense to watch it live rather than recording it and watching it later. I don't want to slog through an hour, bored out of my mind, only watching because of a sense of obligation, because I've invested so much time already. If I wanted to spend an hour that way, I'd just watch Dexter.
I'm being melodramatic and I'm exaggerating, but not by a whole lot. I know that Breaking Bad will deliver the goods and I can't say the same about the Steelers.
After they opened the season 0-2, there was a quick flurry of, "They opened the season 0-2 in 2002 and won the division that year!" observations, but then everyone realized that this team is different than that 2002 team. That team opened against the Patriots and the Raiders (remember that's the year the Raiders went to the Super Bowl, so this was before they sucked). New England was defending its title. That was a deeper Steeler team, a more talented team, and a squad that just happened to draw the two best teams in the AFC in their first two games.
The 2013 Steelers may actually be good, I'm still not sure, but they certainly have a confidence problem. The offensive line lacks confidence -- they're not sure how good they are, there's real anxiety about everyone getting hurt, and they haven't been together long enough to be confident in each other. Solid offensive line play is equal parts talent, rote, and determination. There's plenty of athletic talent on this line, but they haven't played and practiced together much, so the familiarity isn't there. Determination is having the confidence to try to do something and the tenacity to see it through. If they don't have confidence, they can't see it through. That's where it all starts and it trickles down from there.
The coaches don't think the line can pass protect for more than a couple of seconds, so they're calling safer, shorter plays. I'm not a huge fan of Todd Haley, but I don't think you can pin this on him. If he calls too many aggressive pass plays that call for long dropbacks, he exposes Ben Roethlisberger to injury. If Roethlisberger gets hurt, then the season is sunk for sure. Haley doesn't have Mike Wallace to take the top off the defense. He doesn't have a back that he trusts to hold onto the ball. They don't have any explosive players and they're not making any explosive plays. If they start to trust the offensive line, if they start to make some big plays, they'll gain some confidence. Confidence is contagious. The trouble is that I don't see enough guys on this roster to foster that kind of confidence and make those kinds of plays. I don't think that getting Heath Miller and Le'Veon Bell fixes that. I think they just need to take baby steps until they can walk. That might not happen this season.
The defensive is playing it safe and there are two explosive playmakers on that side of the ball: Troy Polamalu and Jarvis Jones. Jones is going to be an amazing player, but he's still young and raw. Troy, as much as I love him and think he's a great player, will get hurt by Week 6. If he doesn't get hurt and Jones makes serious strides, then they've got a little bit of something going on defense. But, they still don't have enough. They need to start piling up sacks and forcing turnovers, making big plays on defense. Right now, they're playing it safe. They're playing not to lose. Again, this isn't something I blame the coordinator for, as if I could ever say anything bad about Dick LeBeau. These are just the circumstances they're operating under with the players they have, at the development levels they have them.
These guys will get better, they will gain confidence, they will come together, they will make plays. I just think the 2013 version of this team is a lot like the 2003 version of this team. Both seasons had similar vibes to them. Both teams had issues on the offensive line (remember that Alan Faneca played left tackle for a few games). They needed to develop and gain confidence.
Bad news: That 2003 team finished 6-10. Good news: With basically the same personnel (plus a rookie phenom named Ben Roethlisberger), they went 15-1 in 2004.
Now, for the bad news for Sunday: The Bears are already a developed team that is playing as well as they can play. They're 2-0 and looking to build on recent successes. The Steelers are 0-2 and looking to avoid recent failures.
I hope the Steelers are going to be in the lead (or at least keeping the game competitive) when I switch over from Breaking Bad at 10 p.m. on Sunday, but I doubt it.
Prediction:
Bears 24, Steelers 13
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