Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Steelers Draft Preview

First and foremost...

You've been warned: This fucker took forever to put together and to write, so it's going to take forever to read. Maybe you want to read it in sections. Some was written sober at work, some was written sober at home, some was written drunk at home, some was written drunk at work.

The important thing to keep in mind is that everything in this bastard was written with love. So, smile.

Also, bear in mind that I think Casey Hampton might get traded on draft day. I don't care that it hasn't been reported anywhere. I just have a feeling.

I also have some bonus draft coverage for the Chicago Bears for my buddy Keith. He promised he'd read my blog if I put it up and I'm an attention whore, so I put it up. If you're not interested, skip past it, but I'm sure I'll put some funny shit in there, too.

Steelers Team Needs:

The Steelers need a lot of shit. We need a linebacker (4-3, not 3-4), a defensive end (4-3 end, not a 3-4 end, since we're making the switch to Tomlin's defense over the course of 2008 and fully in 2009), possibly a defensive tackle, two offensive linemen (preferably a guard and a tackle), a running back, a cornerback, a safety, a fullback, a tall wide receiver, and a quarterback (Batch can't hang around forever, Ben misses at least two games a year, and Steelers West signed St. Pierre).

For those of you counting at home, that's 11 guys. The Steelers have six picks. Good times! The good news is that the pick they're missing is in the seventh round.

Bears Team Needs:

Sadly, they need more shit. Luckily, through compensatory selections (first year I can remember that we didn't have any of these, but the loss of Faneca, Haggans, and especially Brian St. Pierre will get us some next year) they have 11 selections total.

They have four picks in the first 90 selections, so they're actually in pretty good shape, as long as they don't go straight defense like they have the past ten years or so other than Grossman and Cedric Benson... then again, that didn't work out so well for them. Moving on.

They need two wide receivers (lost both Berrian and Muhammad), a quarterback of the future, a defensive end, a running back, two offensive tackles (John Tait is a hundred years old and False Start Fred Miller was released), at least one defensive tackle, and a safety. For those of you counting at home, that's nine guys. So they're in good shape numbers-wise. Unfortunately, four of their picks come in the 7th round. Not too many QBs of the future or quality offensive tackles sitting around there.

Editor's Note: I included full names of all prospects mentioned in case anyone wants to Google any of these guys. You can use the Google Toolbar and everything!

Steelers First Round:

I've seen a lot of varying opinions on this first round selection. At first, everyone seemed to think that we were going to take Pitt's Jeff Otah. Then everyone was convinced that we would take Virginia's Branden Albert, but it was decided that he was too good of a player and actually projected to play at tackle, so the thinking is that he'll be gone by the time we pick.

All along, I have been sure of one thing: We don't need a quarterback in the first round. Isn't that nice? Keith? I can't hear you... isn't that... oh, yeah. Kyle Orton. Neckbeard.

Further analysis has led me to the conclusion that I would not take any of these positions in the first round of the 2008 draft, no matter what team I was looking out for: I would not draft a tight end, a wide receiver, or a safety. The pickings on those three positions are so slim that it doesn't really matter where you draft them. And, since the receivers are all basically rated the same (some are lower because they're slower, shorter, skinnier, or have drug, alcohol, firearm or beating-up-their-girlfriend problems), you just need to take a guy where you think he's worth it that fits your system. For me, that's not first round stuff. That's second round stuff at the earliest.

If Otah or Chris Williams is still available, we should take them and count our blessings. Albert won't be there, but if he is, he can keep on dropping. That dude is too tall, too spread out, and not powerful enough to play any offensive line position for the Pittsburgh Steelers. I might take him in the second round. Maybe.

If one of the top four corners are available: Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, Leodis McElvin, Aqib Talib, or Mike Jenkins, take them. I might even be convinced to take Brandon Flowers at this point. He's a Steelers guy.

The scuttlebutt is that Jonathan Stewart will be there. If he is, it's a Heath Miller situation. He has a toe injury and teams are scared to take him. He'll be healed by training camp and he's the best back in this draft outside of Darren McFadden (anyone that doubts this guy, re-watch the Arkansas-LSU game because he took it over). I could accept it if the Steelers take him, but I still believe Fast Willie is coming back strong and we can get someone later in the draft that's almost as good because this is a really deep tailback class.

At any rate, I'm avoiding the inevitable. I think we're going to take Gosder Cherilus. He's a right tackle through and through. If we're going to pay fucking Max Starks seven fucking million fucking dollars this year, we should play him at left tackle, kick Willie Colon inside, and let Marvel Smith rest his swollen vagina, or whatever his ailment for the season is, and put Cherilus on the right side.

(Aside: Signing Starks to the transition tag was the worst decision Kevin Colbert has ever made in his life. This includes ALL THREE tequila nights, even the one where he actually ended up in Mexico. It also includes the time he left his son at the park in Casa de Pedderass, a Gated Community for Sex Offenders. I think my wife could hit my TV with a sledgehammer and I'd be less pissed off.)

But, I'd like to go on record as saying, if the guys I want are gone, the Steelers should trade out of the first round to a team looking to take Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, or Brian Brohm, and try to land Cherilus in the second round even if they have to trade up to do it.

Bears First Round:

Fuck Rashard Mendenhall. That's all I have to say. Otah or Williams should be available. You should take one of those guys. If Lovie Smith pulls another one of his bullshit, "best athlete available is on defense" maneuvers, you have my permission to shoot him.

Choosing Mendenhall here would be an admission by Jerry Angelo that he screwed the proverbial pooch when he took Cedric Benson fifth overall (a pick I agreed with and still regret it, by the way). I don't think he's up for that, since he doesn't strike me as the kind of guy that can admit when he's wrong.

And I know you need a receiver, but the first round, especially where you're selecting, ain't where to take one. Stay tuned for Round 2.

Steelers Second Round:

I'm just going to make a selection. I want the Steelers to take Jordy Nelson here. He caught 122 balls for Kansas State last year. One hundred and twenty-two. In 12 games. The next closest guy had 57 catches. That means that, every week, opponents in the Big 12 knew he was the only guy they had on offense. And he still caught ten balls a game. He's kind of raw, since he started out as a defensive back, but he's a big receiver (6'3", 217) like Ben wants and he's fast enough. And check out this YouTube clip of him destroying Talib, who just happens to be one of the big cornerback names in this year's draft.

Watch the film, check out the production, fuck the workouts. The workouts say he doesn't have deep speed. He's a self-made guy and the Steelers should love him. I already have a man-crush, so there's that.

If not him and we didn't take one of the Big Four corners in the first round, then Penn State's Justin King. He's from Monroeville and he's fast as hell.

Bears Second Round:

Other than Jordy Nelson? I say they take Malcolm Kelly of Oklahoma because he's still available. The guy's big, he's been productive, but he had an absolutely shitty Pro Day and a bad offseason, so he's a dead man walking. That and he threw the Oklahoma staff under the bus, saying that they tried to sabotage his draft stock by making him run on a shitty field for his 40. My feeling is that he's a good kid, he's just like anyone else that is trying to conduct a job search after college. He's trying hard, he's going on interviews, he's trying to do right by his potential employers, but nothing goes right, so he bitches. But, instead of bitching to his roommates while hammered at 2 a.m., he's bitching in front of a group of reporters with microphones and it's all over the Internet. He's not a bad kid, he's just a dumbass that got frustrated.

Ladies and gentlemen... your 2008 second round selection for the Bears! He's too talented to get much further. If he's still there in Round 2 for the Steelers and so is Jordy Nelson, I say take him instead.

Steelers Third Round:

A few possibilities here, depending on who is taken.

First choice: John Greco, Toledo. He can play guard or tackle and is one of those "sleeper" guys that the Steelers always seem to grab in the third round, even if they totally fuck up the second round. He's a great athlete, really could play inside or outside, and has the kind of mentality (and locality, being from near the Pittsburgh area) that the Steelers are looking for.

Second choice: Duane Brown, Virginia Tech. He played tight end for a while, but was too damn fat, so they moved him to tackle. He's got the feet and athletic ability to play the position. He's just raw. But, in theory, the Steelers have Colon, Smith, and the Seven Million Dollar Man (fuck, I'm going to be pissed about that for a long time) at tackle, so Brown can get on-the-job training.

Third choice: Marcus Howard, Georgia. This guy is a prototypical end in the Cover 2. He's a Robert Mathis kind of guy. Put Lamar Woodley in at the other end position, slide Aaron Smith to tackle oppostite Chris Hoke, and check out the pass rush. I think it's going to be good.

Fourth choice: Philip Wheeler, Georgia Tech. I don't think he'll be here. If he is, we should take him, because he's an ideal outside linebacker in Tomlin's scheme once LeBeau is phased out.

Bears Third Round:

I say there's a real good chance that Notre Dame's Trevor Laws is still available. I think some mock drafts have him going in the second round (and early in the second round), but I have a list I trust that rates him as the 78th player overall in this draft. The Bears pick 70th. So there. Laws is still available and I think he's a good fit.

If not him, Cliff Avril could very well still be available, as could Darrell Robertson. Both would be excellent defensive end prospects for Chicago. But, since they haven't taken a defensive tackle yet and they need one, they should take one here.

If they take Avril, Robertson, or Tulane running back Matt Forte (really like him for the Bears because, unlike Benson, he's a good receiver) with the 70th selection, they can take Laws or maybe Maryland's Dre Moore with the 90th selection (second selection in the third round resulting from a trade with San Diego).

The other option, even though they need a lot of shit, is to use these two third rounds to move into the second round. I have a feeling that a second tier tackle or end like Philip Merling or Kentwan Balmer is going to slide into the top of the second round. Some combination could result where they have two picks in the second and none in the third as opposed to two in the third and one in the second. That's what I'm trying to say here.

Steelers Fourth Round:

So, say for the sake of argument, that the Steelers took someone not name Gosder Cherilus for their first pick, took Nelson in the second round (because they somehow got Flowers or one of the four top corner prospects), and took Greco in the third. That means they still need a running back, a linebacker, and a defensive end with their last three picks. And, really, they should probably take another offensive lineman instead of a linebacker. I think that, with the guys they currently have (including Keyaron Fox, who's a Cover 2 linebacker if I've ever seen one), they need defensive linemen more than they need linebackers, even if Clark Haggans went to Steelers West, James Harrison has anger management issues surrounding the resurrection of Jesus, and James Farrior is about a hundred years old. Okay. So they need linebackers, too. Maybe Dan Connor falls to them somehow in Round 2 or Keith Rivers or Jerod Mayo in Round 1 -- though the chances of that happening are about as good as signing Starks to a long term contract given that he can make seven fucking million fucking dollars for being a back-up this season, then either hits the free agent market or the Steelers are forced to franchise him.

Defensive end: I really like Jason Jones of Eastern Michigan here. He's big enough to hold his own (6'5", 275) and add a little weight just in case we stick with the 3-4. The list I have shows him as a sixth round guy, but I've seen him drafted all over the place. I am therefore making an executive decision and saying he's a fourth rounder, because I have concrete plans for the rest of the selections.

Linebacker: I like South Florida's Ben Moffitt, if for no other reason than I like the name Moffitt. Sounds cool, right? Also, he's fast as hell and he'll be a perfect middle linebacker in the Cover 2. Well, not Urlacher or Ruud perfect, but pretty damn good, especially for a 4-3 linebacker.

Safety: Shit. We need one of these, too. I like Jamie Silva of Boston College. He ran an absolutely crappy 40 (something like seven or eight seconds) at the Combine, but Rod Woodson likes him, he's got long hair (good sign for a Stillers safety, no?), and, well, JFGI. His stats the last couple of years have been insane. And he has coverage skills. And he plays faster than his 40 time. I seriously think he's only going to last this long because he's white and ran a really, really, atrociously shitty 40 at the Combine.

Running back: Tim Hightower. Another great name. A big dude who can break a lot of tackles and be a good change-of-pace guy for Fast Willie. If not him, Jalen Parmele, who's another big dude. This is assuming, of course, that we don't take Stewart in the first round.

Offensive Line: Mackenzy Bernadeau, Bentley College -- big, angry, mauling, angry dude that eats babies. I think he'll do well as a guard for the Steelers. Cody Wallace. Sissy name, but a decent center. However, he struggles with big guys and isn't real strong, so he'll be a bad center in a division where most teams have big nose tackles right over the center. However, he's quick and athletic enough to play guard. What do you want from me? It's the fourth round. I'd rather take a baby eater named Mackenzy, but he might be gone by then.

Bears Fourth Round:

If they've listened to me thus far, they have either Otah or Williams, Malcolm Kelly and possibly Kentwan Balmer, or Trevor Laws. Let's just say, for the sake of argument, they've drafted a defensive tackle, an offensive tackle, a defensive end, and a running back with their four picks in the first three rounds.

That leaves them open to take Andre Woodson as their quarterback of the future. Everyone else is down on Woodson, but I think Chicago's a good situation for him. He doesn't have to start right away, they have a great defense, and they're committed to running the ball. He can work on his funky delivery. He can build up his confidence. He can learn from Griese and Grossman. He can take his time, develop, and eventually make the most out of his physical abilities.

And, if the bottom falls out of Chicago's season like it did last year, he can get a couple of starts late in the year with no pressure.

Steelers Fifth Round:

I'm just going to select someone here. Even though we've got bigger needs in other places, I want Owen Schmidt from West Virginia. I miss Dan Krieder. I wish he was still in Pittsburgh. I wish we would re-sign him. I hate the fact that Carey Davis is our "fullback" right now. Schmidt is a great blocker, he catches the ball well, is fast enough (remember when he ran for a 57 yard touchdown against Oklahoma? That was against a really good, really fast Sooners defense, not Eastern Kentucky Beauty Polytechnic Western Louisville State), and he's completely out of his friggin' mind. On several occasions, he's played without a helmet. And not, it came off, so he ran around for a little bit and maybe shoved someone, like crazy-ass Jeremy Shockey, the helmet's off, but I'm still trying to drive into you head-first no helmet action. He'll be great on special teams, too.

While we're here, I'd also accept LSU's Jacob Hester at this point. That guy's just a great player. I get pissed when people talk about Early Doucet being a good receiver prospect. That guy wasn't even the third best player on his own offense. In my mind, Hester was the best guy, Matt Flynn was second, Brandon LaFell was third, and Doucet was fourth. If we take that guy, I'm driving down to the South Side complex and taking a shit in the corner.

Bears Fifth Round:

They need a safety, another offensive tackle, and another receiver. At this point, I'd say they should take a safety and I think Silva's still available. So, take him. Seriously, it doesn't get any prettier after the first round at the safety position. They all suck balls, just some suck fewer balls and less passionately than others.

If they haven't taken a running back yet, I could see Cory Boyd or Mike Hart here, even if Mike Hart is basically just a skinnier Cedric Benson. He's being drafted in the fifth round, not fifth overall, so it's okay.

If they go receiver, I say they should take either Nebraska's Maurice Purify (his brother was a great player at Colorado) or Marcus Monk of Arkansas. Both guys have holes in their game, inconsistent hands, and they're not the fastest, most productive dudes on the block, but they're both big, relatively injury free, and they're not criminals.

Steelers Sixth Round:

At this point, provided they've drafted a safety, two offensive linemen, Schmidt or Hester, and a defensive lineman, I don't really care what they do. If they grabbed a running back at some point, then we'll need to fill in the gap on that one. But, hey, it's not like we've done well in the later rounds the past few years. Sure, you could say that's because our roster is so stacked that we can't make room for lesser players. We've had talented rosters in the past, though, and we've managed to sprinkle in late round picks here and there. Fast Willie and James Harrison, both undrafted, spring to mind.

So... I'm just going to throw out another name that I like: King Dunlap. Yes. That's the man's name. He's an offensive tackle prospect that's 6'8" and 315 pounds. The dude is huge... and the only thing he's lacking is tenacity and technique. Small stuff.

That's it for the Steelers selections. We don't have a seventh round pick because of the Allen Rossum Experiment. I said it was a good move and I stand by that. We would've been 10-6 in 2006 if we had a guy that could reliably field a kick. We went 10-6 in 2007 with Rossum. So, suck it. And he also scored a touchdown on a kickoff return. And I witnessed it. And I'm still undefeated at Heinz Field.

There's going to be just a teensy little bit of Steelers stuff after the Bears stuff, so you can scroll past that if you like.

Bears Sixth Round:

You know what? They might actually be able to use King Dunlap.

Two guys that are big, but not really talented enough to step in and play right away (so, assume that John Tait can hold it together for a couple more years) are Tyler Polumbus and Mike Fladell.

Bears Seventh Round:

This is where all the picks come in. They have three compensatory selections in this round, giving them a total of four seventh round picks. That might not be worth too much, but it's better than nothing.

7a. Justin Beaver, running back, Wisconsin-Whitewater. Well, funny name first of all. He was the Division III player of the year and the Wisconsin-Whitewater... Whitefish, or whatever their nickname is... they beat the Mighty Crowing Mount Union... Mounties? for the Division III title in 2007. He had 444 carries in 2007 alone. He's short and skinny, but he's strong. And fast, as he was timed at 4.42 in the 40 at Wisconsin's Pro Day. He's probably going to go undrafted, but the Bears may as well draft him, since they have 53 picks in this round.

7b. Trae Williams, cornerback, South Florida. Too short, too skinny, too slow. That's what scouts say. He's been productive over the course of his career and he didn't disappear in the same defensive backfield as first round prospect Mike Jenkins. Plus which, he's a great Cover 2. If he goes undrafted, the Steelers should pick him up.

7c. Matt Sherry, tight end, Villanova. While we're picking small school kids, I think the Bears need another tight end. I think they need a guy that's going to come in hungry, run around like a crazy person, and light a fire under Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark. I think Matt Sherry is that guy. It doesn't matter if the Bears cut him, since he graduated last year and is currently in Villanova's MBA program. I didn't make that up. I actually know that off the top of my head. I need to get a life.

7d. Adarius Bowman, wide receiver, Oklahoma State. He's got an injury history (knee injury, missed 2005) and he's been busted for drugs in the past... and a couple weeks ago. So, most teams aren't going to touch him with a 10 meter cattle prod. But, he's going to get signed as a free agent because he's too damn talented to completely avoid. Since this is a free pick for the Bears, they shouldn't leave picking him up to chance. They should draft him here, bring him into camp, and see if he's worth anything/can stay out of trouble.

Steelers Undrafted Free Agents:

Some guys I like:

Tommy Ellingworth, WR, Augstana
DeCody Fagg, WR, Florida State -- he's currently recovering from a knee injury, but it'd be worth it to have DeCody Fagg and William Gay on the same team
Matt Flynn, QB, LSU
Alley Broussard, RB, Missouri Southern State
Vegas Franklin, DE, Miami (Fla.) -- more than just the name; he's actually a really good DE project for our conversion to the Cover 2
Carlos Feliciano, DT, Maryland
Lamar Myles, OLB, Louisville
James Martin, MLB, NC State -- I don't care if Cowher's not there anymore, we'll still pick up SOMEONE from his alma mater

Other Observations:
  1. I think we're going to see guys with drug and criminal histories really take a dive down draft boards. Most of them will not get drafted. I really think character concerns will have a negative effect on Mario Manningham and wouldn't be surprised if he didn't get taken until late Round 3 or early Round 4.
  2. I think Casey Hampton gets traded either to Miami for their first second rounder (32nd overall) or Dallas for their second first rounder (28th overall). I really do believe this. I will admit and apologize later for being wrong.
  3. Starting the draft at 3 p.m. is dumb for a number of reasons. It takes a huge chunk out of the middle of my day, I'm used to it starting at noon and won't know what to do with myself until it starts, and it will end at midnight, regardless of how they tried to shorten the first day. Also, I bet there's a riot from drunken, rowdy Jets fans that have been drinking since 7 a.m. after the Mangenius passes on Darren McFadden.
  4. There's no way Matt Ryan slips down draft boards like everyone thinks he will. The difference between him and Aaron Rodgers, Brady Quinn, and Roethlisberger is that he's the #1 QB prospect in the draft. Someone is going to take him before the hated Ravens are on the clock if not the hated Ravens themselves.
I... think that's it.

1 comment:

  1. I'm digging this analysis, though the notion of the Steelers even possibly taking a RB in the 1st round makes me want to cry and I know that they're never going to take a CB in the first round because they're the Steelers.

    I have always been a 100% draft need guy, but the Bears have so very many holes and so very many picks that they should take best available so long as it isn't a CB or TE. They shouldn't take a QB until late, either, but what if Matt Ryan somehow falls to them? Or would they trade some surplus picks to move ahead of the Ravens?

    ReplyDelete