16 Reasons the Titans Make Me Poop My Pants

When they were undefeated and seemed to have the #1 seed in the AFC locked up, everyone thought the Tennessee Titans were the best team in the AFC, maybe in the league.

Then they got blown out by the Jets. Then they honked that game last week in Houston. Now, they might get knocked down to being the #2 seed and the Steelers, who weren't assured of a playoff spot, nonetheless a division title two weeks ago, might be able to leapfrog them and become the #1 seed.

So... do the Titans suddenly suck and were suddenly the cat's pajamas? I have a feeling it's somewhere in the middle where we both have some sucky pajamas, but, then again, I hate cats.

I guess we'll have to break it down...

1. The Titans have allowed eight sacks this year. Eight. All year. Kerry Collins and his old man beard have only been sacked seven times. Vince Young and his chemical imbalance count for one of those. Eight times. All year. That's not to say that it's impossible to pressure Collins, it's just that he doesn't take a lot of sacks. And our defense feeds off of sacks. As my buddy Dan pointed out, though, they haven't faced James Harrison and company.
2. They also don't turn the ball over very much. They've lost eight fumbles out of 16 (that's actually a hell of a lot and something they should be concerned about) and Collins has only thrown seven interceptions. That's 15 turnovers in 14 games. Not exactly throwing the ball away, now are they? The 12 turnovers the Steelers have forced in the last three games are a MAJOR reason they've won those three games. We forced some quarterbacks into making some bad decisions the last few weeks, so maybe Troy Polamalu and company can pull some magic.
3. The Titans are +10 in turnover differential, which means that they've forced 25 turnovers. We've forced 27 turnovers, but we've also committed 20. We've lost eight fumbles, too. Out of 22 total fumbles. That's... that's something we should be concerned about.
4. Here's the thing about our turnovers, though. Ben Roethlisberger threw eight interceptions over three games against the Giants, Colts, and Redskins. I'm not saying you take those games out and say the turnovers don't count, but I am saying that he's only thrown one interception in the five games since that three games stretch. And he has seven games where he's thrown zero interceptions this season. And 12 games where he threw either zero interceptions, or only one interception. There's still the matter of the 22 total fumbles but, if the ball keeps bouncing our way and we don't lose any of those fumbles, I'm perfectly content to stick my head in the sand.
5. Tennessee is 7th in the league in sacks, with 38. There have been whispers that our pass protection kinda sucks.
6. They have the 5th-rated rushing attack in the NFL. But, know who's 2nd? The Giants? Know who's 6th? The hated Ravens. Know who's 7th? The Patriots. Wait, what? Really? The Patriots? What's up with Tom Brady that they're running so much? My point is that we faced three of the top seven rushing teams in the league this year and no one has run wild on us.
7. Rookie Chris Johnson is a very fast dude, he's decisive, and he's got excellent vision. If you give him a hole, he's going to do a lot of damage.
8. LenDale White is a very fat dude that is deceptively fast. If you let him get a head of steam, he'll destroy you. He also is a very effective short yardage back and has already scored 14 rushing touchdowns. Must be nice to have a big, fat, effective short yardage guy for when you get to, say, fourth and goal at the one.
9. The thing about Johnson and White is that they need space to operate in in order to be effective. Tennessee is the best team in the league at cutting off backside pursuit. This means that Johnson and White have plenty of time to use their vision, look for a hole to open up, and decide when to hit that hole without having to worry about someone attacking from their blind side and tackling them behind the line of scrimmage. But, aside from the occasional flurry of hair as Polamalu jumps in after a runner has already been stopped, or James Harrison/LaMarr Woodley coming in to strip the ball away from a player that is already in the grasp, the Steelers don't make a lot of plays from the back side. That means that Tennessee's primary advantage against the rest of the league doesn't mean much against the Steelers. Casey Hampton, Aaron Smith, and Brett Keisel/Travis Kirschke are not concerned about back side pursuit. They're looking to fill running lanes by practicing sound gap discipline -- the thing they do better than everyone else in the NFL. This means that the Titans will be down a blocker when they try to run -- because he'll be trying to contain back side pursuit that isn't there -- and the defensive line should be able to force White to run into the pile or force Johnson to stretch the play out to the sidelines. In both cases, they won't gain more than a couple of yards. There won't be a lot of negative plays in the running game, if any, but there won't be any big plays, either, and we'll also have the man advantage when Tennessee gets inside the five.
10. Let's go back to #5. That was pretty much there for shock and awe, but it's also a valid point. But, it's also a misleading stat. See, the Titans do something else better than any other team in the league: They pressure the quarterback with only their four down linemen. Of their 38 sacks, 34 have been registered by defensive linemen. Of those 34 sacks, end Kyle Vanden Bosch and tackle Albert Haynesworth are responsible for 12 of them. Why are Vanden Bosch and Haynesworth important? Because they won't be playing on Sunday, that's why. Granted, the Titans are so deep along the defensive line that it's almost like they have an eight man rotation, not back-ups and starters, but losing your two best pass rushers hurts. Imagine if the Steelers lost Woodley and Harrison. On second thought, let's not imagine that. Forget I mentioned it.
11. Here's the other piece of good news: When the Steelers have struggled to pass protect, it has been against teams that like to blitz: the Giants, the Eagles, the Cowboys, basically the entire NFC East. Teams that rush four linemen on most plays haven't been successful against us: Bengals, Colts, Jaguars, Texans. Even 3-4 teams that don't use a lot of exotic looks (or, more to the point, don't have a whole lot of talent at outside linebacker) have struggled to get to Roethlisberger: Patriots, Chargers, Browns. And, as I've mentioned before, if you take the NFC East out of the equation, we've let up 20 sacks in ten games. I'll take that. I know that Jeff Fisher checks this blog every day, so I hope he forgets this week. If the Titans start blitzing like crazy, we're boned. If they go with their base defense and their base pressure packages, I think we'll be good to go.
12. Cornerback Cortland Finnegan should not have made the Pro Bowl. He's not that great of a man coverage guy and, at least once a game, he does something that could be categorized as "ponderously dumbasstical." He'll blow a coverage, he'll overcommit to a running lane, he'll get flagged for some idiotic personal foul. One of those things (if not all) will happen in Sunday's game. We need to be prepared to strike when it happens. Santonio Holmes, I'm looking at you. Or, Nate Washington. Whichever.
    
13. Hines Ward has been quite clutch the last few weeks. I thought that he had lost a few miles an hour off his fast ball, but he seems to be stepping up at just the right point. This is going to be a tight game, so we need to be able to count on him to make those plays. He better not let us down.
14. Roethlisberger has made it a habit the past few games of forgetting how to play quarterback for the first 3 1/2 quarters of the game, then turning it on late. Can't have that happen on Sunday. It could get ugly.
    
15. I think we're going to continue to see a committee situation in the back field. Mewelde Moore just brings too much to the table to only give him a couple of carries per game and Fast Willie just isn't as explosive as he used to be. Tennessee's defense closes to the ball very, very, very quickly and their defenders are too smart to make a mistake and have Willie rip off a big run. Plus which, I think the days of Willie being able to do that at any moment are gone. I'm not writing his eulogy, but I will say that I'm now more glad than ever that we drafted Mendenhall. Hopefully his shoulder is okay.
16. If it is windy, we're screwed. Bitch Merger's punts will travel 20 yards in the air and Arians will still make Roethlisberger throw 60 yards down the field. The wind will affect the Titans, too, but we seem to go on about our business and ignore the elements. That's another mistake we can't make on Sunday.

So, to review:

Our gap discipline cancels out their back side contain. (That sounds dirty, but also sounds like Amish porn.)

Our pass rush cancels out their pass protection. We won't get sacks, but we'll get pressure.

Their injuries and lack of blitzing cancels out our crappy pass protection.

The three things they do best, we have boiled down to a push.

Therefore...

Who would you rather have: Kerry Collins or Ben Roethlisberger? Roethlisberger. Steelers 1, Titans 0.

Who would you rather have: Justin Gage, Justin McCareins, Brandon Jones, and Bo Scaife (they're real guys, I promise, I didn't make them up), or Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington, and Heath Miller? Steelers 2, Titans 0.

Who do you trust more on third and one: LenDale White or Gary Russell? Ouch. I'm giving the Titans two for that one. Steelers 2, Titans 2.

Who is more likely to rip off a big run that shatter the collective wills of the opposing defense: Chris Johnson or Willie Parker? Sorry, gotta go Johnson. Titans 3, Steelers 2.

Rob Bironas or Jeff Reed with the game on the line? Reed. Barely. This is not a knock on Reed, but rather a compliment to Bironas. Titans 3, Steelers 3.

Who's angrier? Titans 4, Steelers 3.

Who has more to lose? Titans 5, Steelers 3.

Who is playing at home? Titans 6, Steelers 3.

Tomlin or Fisher? As much as I hate Jeff Fisher and his mullet, he's a great coach and a hell of a motivator. But, still gotta go Tomlin. Again, not a slight against Fisher. Titans 6, Steelers 4.

Game's on the line and the defense needs to make a stop. Titans or Steelers? Titans 6, Steelers 5.

Game's on the line and the offense needs to make a play. Titans 6, Steelers 6.

Who's luckier? Um... uh... The Steelers have caught their fair share of breaks during the season, but the Titans were on the fortuitous side of a number of plays and officiating decisions. Did they both use it all up already? Did Tennessee go through an unlucky patch the past three games and now they're getting back to good? Have the Steelers blown their luck wad?

I really have no idea.

What I do know is that these two teams are too closely matched for anything but luck to decide the outcome. If both sides execute the way they should, play the way they should, and the coaches and coordinators approach this game the way they've approached every game, it's up to lady luck to pick which side she favors.

I think the horse shoe passes to the Titans.

Prediction:

Titans 14, Steelers 10