Steelers vs. Bengals Preview

Basically, there are two things that scare me about this game:

1. Carson Palmer.
2. The Bengals just won a big road game at Lambeau Field, are fired up, and are at home.

There's the usual thing about, "They hate us because they suck and we've won six Super Bowls," but that's been going on in some capacity since 1995. Since 1992, we've won the division ten times and they've won it once. That's a pretty big disparity. Just like with the Browns, they're a bunch of jealous haters that realize they squandered their one opportunity to take us down a peg earlier this decade (Kelly Holcomb, Dropcutt, blown lead for the Browns in 2002, Kimo Kills Carson, blown lead for the Bengals in 2005).

For the most part, we look at the Bengals and Browns as a cute, significantly younger brother that tries to beat us at pick-up basketball even though they're a foot and a half shorter. They hate it, we're ambivalent almost to the point that we think it's adorable.

Every now and again, they make a game of it through pure hate (and some talent). For the most part, if we're up for the game, we crush them.

We're up for this game for two reasons:

1. Mike Tomlin.
2. We're pissed that we lost last week.

For those reasons, I think we crush them.

And that's that.

Well, not really, but that's basically that.

They're going to be fired up. They're going to come out swinging in the first half. If we take their best shot and we're still standing, we'll pull away in the second half.

At some point, they're going to realize that their "big win" is that a 4-11-1 team from 2008 beat a 6-10 team from 2008. Sure, they could be 2-0 if it weren't for an incredibly improbable play against the Broncos in Week 1, but we'd be 2-0 if it weren't for two consecutive and equally improbable misses from Jeff Reed last week.

Don't get me wrong, I have a lot of faith in the Bengals. But, "A lot of faith in the Bengals," translates literally to, "I think they have a good shot of going 8-8."

Here's why they don't scare me:

1. Palmer is 2-6 lifetime against the Steelers with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions (thought he had more picks against us, but Pro Football Reference says no), has averaged 202 yards passing a game, and has a 78.5 passer rating. Three of those touchdown passes came in the 2005 game when they clinched the division and forced us to become the only sixth seed in the history of the NFL to win the Super Bowl. So, take out that game and he still averages 200 yards a game, but only has ten touchdown passes. The point here is that I'm dumb for being scared of Carson Palmer.
2. Ben Roethlisberger is 8-2 against the Bengals with 15 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and an 88.2 passer rating. Not a huge difference, but he's 8-2 and Carson is 2-6, so that has to count for something, right?
3. Cedric Benson is a scrub. His girlfriend left him because he couldn't find the hole. After a decent 2008 season playing against some of the worst run defenses in the league and a solid performance against Green Bay, I'm supposed to believe he's an all-star? I'm selling that. He's not as good as Chris Johnson or Matt Forte and we shut those guys down. Which means the game falls on the shoulders of Carson Palmer. Who scares me. But I'm dumb for feeling that way. So there you go.
4. Our guys are pissed. On Sunday, they were crestfallen and shocked. Come Tuesday, they were pissed. That feeling hasn't waned -- it has, in fact intensified -- since then, so that's worth ten points. In the Cowher Era, it was worth 17 points. But Tomlin has these players playing angry. In past games, we'd come out flat and the Bengals would be fired up and we'd have to establish dominance after halftime. This week, we're ready.
5. Week 6 in 2006. We crushed the Kansas City Chiefs. Just destroyed them. That was the point where we realized we didn't have a coach and got motivated. This season, we have a coach and are motivated.
6. Seriously. It's the Bengals.

I think we stop Benson.

I think Carson Palmer once again makes me look dumb for being scared of him.

I think their re-vamped defense turtles by the midpoint of the second quarter once they realize how much we like to hit people.

I think their best shot won't phase us.

I think we roll.

Prediction: Steelers 34, Bengals 14

Steelers vs. Bears Review

Basically, everyone was hating on Jeff Reed early in the week, then they eventually let up on him. A bit.

The last time he missed two field goals in a single game was 2004. I can't remember him ever missing two field goals in a row. I can't remember him ever missing two field goals in a game. Now, he looked awfully upset and rattled in the fourth quarter, so my hope is that this meltdown is not going to destroy his psyche for the rest of his career.

Remember Mike Vanderjagt? Sure, Peyton Manning called him a drunken kicker. But, most Steeler fans remember him as the guy that hooked a 46-yard field goal in the 2005 playoffs so bad he almost hit the goal posts on the opposite side of the field. After that kick, the Colts signed Adam Vinatieri and released Vanderjagt. Vanderjagt then went on to struggle in Dallas, he got released after a few games in 2006 and he has never played football since.

Before that shank, he was the most accurate kicker in the history of the NFL.

So... let's hope Reed doesn't go the way of the Vanderjagt. I was shocked and mortified when he missed the first kick. I was completely awestruck when he missed the second. At no point was I upset. Jeff Reed has been one of the most reliable, accurate kickers in the league since he started with the Steelers. He's automatic at Heinz Field, which is where the three points come from in the Vegas line.

Okay, yes. He had a job to do and he didn't. But, how about these guys (through two games, not just the fourth quarter of one game)...

1. In 2008, the defense forced 29 turnovers and had 51 sacks. Thus far, they have forced two turnovers and have three sacks. Need some more turnovers and sacks out of the defense.
2. Need some more big-time game-changing plays on defense in general. This is where we miss Polamalu. Every time the ball hung in the air a little too long, every time a ball was batted, every a pass fluttered, I expected Troy to come flying in out of nowhere and snag it. But, the ball always fell harmlessly to the turf. The popular opinion when Troy got hurt was that the Steelers would miss his leadership. They have plenty of leadership on defense, but they have a shortage of crazy since Troy went down. They need to bring the crazy back.
3. They've gained 665 yards and scored 27 total points. If you add in the six points they would've scored had Reed connected, that's 33 total points. That's not gonna do it.
4. They failed to convert on 3rd and 4, 3rd and 1, and 3rd and 2. On all of those plays, they passed the ball. On two of them, Roethlisberger got sacked. It's trued that we converted on 4th and goal from the one after we failed on 3rd and goal from the four, but, uh, that's still not gonna do it.
5. Fast Willie has lost his jump cut, a great deal of his vision, and his killer instinct. Remember Mendenhall's 39 yard run? Fast Willie would've gained 12 yards on that run. He would've cut inside inside of bouncing outside and wouldn't have finished the run as strong as Mendenhall did. This isn't an endorsement of Mendenhall, it's starting a trend of indictments of Fast Willie. Tomlin's a stubborn guy, so I give Parker until the bye week. If he doesn't show his old self by then, Mendenhall is the man.
6. Santonio Holmes dropped four passes on Sunday. That's a lot of lost yardage.

Good news is that we gained 105 yards on 22 carries (4.8 yard average). Even if you take out Mendenhall's long run as an outlier, that's still 76 yards on 21 carries (3.6 yard average). Not outstanding, but considerably better than we did against the Titans.

More good news: We've proven we can move the ball. We've proven we can convert on third and long. These are areas where most teams struggle. If we can stop struggling with the easy stuff and keep excelling at the hard stuff, we'll be good to go.

And, one last piece of good news: Two of the hardest quarterbacks to sack the last couple of years have been Jay Cutler and Kerry Collins. Could just be we had a bad draw in that regard. Also, the Titans don't tend to turn the ball over and the Bears seemed to be playing it safe. Against a familiar foe like the Bengals, we may surprise ourselves.

It's not time to give up on the season, it's not time to give up on the offense or the defense (special teams still long strong despite a fumble by Stefan Logan late Sunday), and it's definitely not time to give up on Jeff Reed.

If he doesn't give up on himself like Vanderjagt did, we should be good to go.

Steelers vs. Bears Preview

I thought about doing a "16 Reasons the Bears Make Me Poop My Pants," but that format didn't quite work. For this particular blog post, I'm going old school.

Steelers Offense vs. Bears Defense:

Well, so, we've already covered that the Steelers rush offense leaves a lot to be desired, right? It doesn't get any better this week.

"But," you say, "the Bears run the Cover 2. The Cover 2 sucks against the run! We should be golden!"

Except for the fact that Chicago finished fifth in the league last year in run defense. And they played Adrian Peterson. Twice. And Ryan Grant. Twice. And they had to play Tennessee.

"I was not aware of that," you say. "But, they must have sucked against the pass, right?" Well, they did. They finished 30th. Thus far this season, though, they're sixth. Then again, Carolina is first and they got destroyed, so maybe that doesn't mean so much.

Then again, as you already mentioned, the Bears run a Cover 2 defense. That prevents offenses from gaining yards through the big play. Or, in another way of saying it, it prevents teams from gaining yards in chunks. I would like to take this opportunity to point out that Bruce Arians has said, repeatedly, that he likes to gain yards in chunks.

So... something's gotta give, right? Chances are that it won't be the Chicago defense. Hate to say it, even if the Packers gained most of their passing yardage in Week 1 after Aaron Rogers broke the pocket, but I don't think that they'll give up chunks of yardage.

It's the home opener for the Bears. They looked like crap against the Packers. The coaches have been beating them up all week. They lost Brian Urlacher. They have an us-against-the-world mentality at this point. I don't foresee any breakdowns like they had against Green Bay.

All of the above means that the run game won't be working and the "yards in chunks" strategy won't pan out. This means that we'll have to change our game plan. A game plan change is apparently limited to the end of a half when the half/game is on the line.

Therefore, it will be a lot of one yard and a cloud of dust and a lot of Ben trying to "improvise" and failing for 56 minutes and then some two-minute offense sprinkled in.

Bears Offense vs. Steelers Defense:

The Steelers have an awesome run defense and the Bears have an awesome running back by the name of Matt Forte. Something has to give here and I think it's the Chicago running game.

I think that we'll focus on stopping the run and not give Forte much daylight. However, he's like LaDanian Tomlinson back in the day. We'd bottle him up as a runner, but not as a receiver. I think Forte catches a number of checkdowns from Jay Cutler and ends up with a fairly respectable stat line. I am starting him in my fantasy league that gives a point per reception, despite the fact that Sportsline told me that I am retarded for doing that.

I think he scores their touchdown. I think he ends up with 23 carries for 57 yards, but he scores and catches at least five passes and scores. That's worth it, right?

Point is, I don't think that Forte, explosive as he is -- and he was explosive 2008 before he hit the rookie wall -- is the guy that kills us.

"So," you say, ever the contrarian jerk that you are, "Cutler is going to kill us?"

Well, no.

The following are facts:

1. Jay Cutler sucked big, hairy, honkin' balls against the Packers on Sunday night.
2. He ended up throwing four interceptions. When I heard this, I was not surprised. I would not have been surprised had I heard that he threw six interceptions. And I only watched the first quarter.
3. The Packers were running a 3-4 defense for the first time.
4. The Steelers have been running the 3-4 defense since the Reagan administration and are very, very good at it.

You could take all that and conclude that the Steelers will rule Cutler and the Bears passing offense.

But, you would neglect to realize that:

1. Cutler has now seen the 3-4 defense and is accustomed to it. He sucked waaaaaaay less in the second half.
2. The Green Bay defensive coordinator is Dom Capers. If Dick LeBeau is the Godfather of the 3-4 defense, Capers is Tom Hagen.

So... they're ready for pretty much whatever we throw at them.

Now, Cutler is still going to suck balls, but they will be neither big, hairy, nor honkin'. He's not the guy that kills this game for the Bears.

Overall:

Since we won't be able to move the ball for 56 minutes and the Bears won't light up the scoreboard, then it's going to be a close game. It's going to be a game when big plays matter.

Therefore, we should not under any circumstances kick the ball to Devin Hester. Remember when the hated Ravens had Jermaine Lewis? Well, Hester is Lewis plus Ray Lewis plus Brian Mitchell plus infinity.

I know that we have Danny Vulva aka the Sepulverizer at our disposal once again. But, we should not under any circumstances kick the ball to Devin Hester. Do. Not. Kick. The. Ball. To. Devin. Hester.

I think that, after nearly three hours of physical play and back and forth that the announcers will praise as "riveting" but really only serves to put fans to sleep, the Steelers remember that they have one of the best clutch quarterbacks in the league and let him do his thing to win another low-scoring snooze-fest.

Prediction: Steelers 16, Bears 13

Steelers vs. Titans Review

So, I had a preview for this game. I really did. I had it in mind, wrote about 90% of it, then ran out of time. I might have been able to throw it up at about 7:15 last night, but I figured that it wouldn't work as a retrospective that was actually posted before the game started. Or something.

Well, basically, there have been three major questions that have arisen out of this game:

1. Why, exactly, didn't Hines Ward hit the deck and let Jeff Reed win the game in regulation?
2. We had 36 yards rushing and only one first down running the ball. Can this persist?
3. We had 363 yards passing on 43 attempts and 18 first downs passing the ball. Can this persist?

Well, 2 and 3 are basically the same question and it comes down to identity and sustainability. Number one is a little different.

Here's how I feel about it: That's Hines Ward. You knew that going in. You knew that when you drafted him. That's the way he's played the game since he made the team in 1998. He's always trying to get that extra yard. He's always trying to score. That's just how Hines rolls.

If he had scored, no one would be talking about how he had an error in judgment. They would be talking about how he did it all with a smile on his face. He'd be talking about how no one believed in him. Even if he hadn't fumbled, no one would have said anything.

Basically, it comes down to the fact that Chris Collinsworth said something about it during the broadcast, so everyone else feels the need to talk about it. If no one asked Obama what he though about Kanye, no one would be talking about the "jackass" comment. If he had said "no comment," then no one would be talking about it. But, that's how Obama rolls. And people are talking about it.

I'm fine with the risk of Hines fumbling once every 800 touches or so in order to take advantage of all the great plays he makes when he's out there running around with no regard for his safety. Because that's how Hines rolls.

The other questions, like I said, come down to identity and sustainability.

Passing a lot is not the Steelers' identity. They are a running team.

That's the root issue here. If they start throwing the ball a lot, then Tomlin will have changed their identity. He had done just fine living off the identity and personnel that he inherited, so breaking from that identity could spell doom.

Also, 2003.

Well, here's the thing...

I have been preaching since Tomlin was hired in 2007 that he wants to make this a Cover 2 defense and a passing offense. I have been preaching this because I completely read Mike Tomlin wrong. I assumed that, since he came from a Cover 2 backgroung that he was a system guy and that he wanted to move to the Cover 2 at all costs, because that's his system.

Tomlin is not a system guy. He's a personnel guy. He wants athletic, tough, physical players that hopefully can play a few different positions. That's why he drafted guys like Timmons, Hood, and Burnett. Not because they're Cover 2 guys, but because they can do a lot of different things, they're athletic, and they're violent, physical players.

On offense, he wants tough, physical guys. He's talked about wars of attrition. He's talked about football being a violent game. He's talked about dominance and physicality. He really, really, really wants to be able to gain two yards on third and one and drop the other team for a two yard loss on third and inches.

But, he's willing to change systems and change the way he does things if he doesn't have the horses.

All he knew coming into the head job for the Steelers was the Cover 2 defense. But, he didn't have the players to run that system, so he stuck with the 3-4. He had the guys to run a physical, violent style of offense, so he stuck with that.

Now, he doesn't have the guys to gain two yards on third and one. He doesn't have the guys to gain a foot on fourth and inches. And he knows it. And he knows that, Isaac Redman or no Isaac Redman, no one that's available can make the line to gain with the guys he has up front.

And, really, this isn't a new development. The past eight games (one of which was against the Browns in Week 17 when they had given up), the Steelers have tallied the following rushing totals: 70, 91, 73, 176 (Browns), 165, 52, 58, 36. All last season, the Steelers rushed for more than 100 yards only seven times and four of those times were against the Browns and Bengals (twice each). So, they may be able to have success running the ball at some point this season, given who they're playing against, but it may not be their identity.

Tomlin is not one to switch horses in midstream. Obviously, he kept up with "Student Body Left" well after Faneca left the team and well well after it stopped working. Last year, he didn't have the horses on the offensive line, but he felt as though he also didn't have a short yardage back or a healthy Willie Parker.

Now, he has a healthy Willie Parker and a short yardage back. But... he realizes that he still doesn't have the horses.

The real question, at this point, is when Tomlin will admit that he doesn't have the horses and go into full-on passing mode?

The answer, mercifully, is: Probably soon. Which brings us to the second question...

If the Steelers decide to become a passing team, is their success in the Tennessee game sustainable?

I hate to be crass, but... shit, I don't know. It's been so long (since 2003) since we decided to go pass wacky. At that point, Jerome Bettis, Chris Gardocki, Tommy Maddox, and Amos Zeroeue were still on the team. Guys on that team that are still on this team?

Aaron Smith
Casey Hampton
Ike Taylor
Troy Polamalu
Brett Keisel
James Farrior
Hines Ward

Notice anything about that list? That's right! Hines is the only offensive player from that fateful team still on the roster.

Ben Roethlisberger is a better quarterback than Tommy Maddox. Santonio Holmes is a better second receiver than Antwaan Randle-El. Mewelde Moore is a better third down/passing situation back than Verron Haynes.

That wasn't a JV squad they faced last Thursday night. Tennessee sent two players in their secondary -- Cortland Finnegan and Chris Hope -- to the Pro Bowl last year. But, I really can't say that passing the ball 43 times and being that successful that consistently is sustainable.

Here's what I do know: Mike Tomlin shepherded this team through one of the toughest schedules in league history last year and lead them to a championship. He oversaw the bankrupting of their rushing attack, the ascension of Ben Roethlisberger to the pantheon of two minute quarterbacks, a horrid offensive line that was among the league's worst, abyssmal special teams play, and complete dependence on a defense that was among the greatest that the NFL has ever seen.

Essentially, he coached the Steelers to a championship on balls and determination. He doesn't have that in him again this season. The team doesn't have it in them again. The kind of clutch play, luck, good timing, and standout performances they experienced last season are not sustainable.

Tomlin needs to try something new. The biggest test of his young career is whether or not he can adapt.

53-man Roster

Here's how I think it will shake out. And, I'm officially in love with Stefan Logan, even if he's only 5'3" or whatever.

First of all, I was e-mailing my buddy Joel this morning and we decided that the Steelers have a good problem when it comes to roster cuts: They have too many good players, so they need to make some tough decisions. At every position but offensive line, we have tons of quality depth. Hopefully, some guys clear waivers and we can sign them to the practice squad, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Quarterbacks (3): Ben Roethlisberger, Charlie Batch, Dennis Dixon.

Mike Reilly will get cut and hopefully clear waivers, because I'm not 100% sold on Dixon. But, this is how I think it will play out.

Running Backs (6): Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall, Mewelde Moore, Issac Redman, Carey Davis, Stefan Logan.

Davis is the fullback, Shortbus hits the road. It's very possible that they cut Davis and keep Shortbus.

Wide Receiver (5): Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Limas Sweed, Shaun McDonald, Mike Wallace.

Given the fact that we've already released a few receivers, we might only keep four. But, I think Tomlin will want McDonald's veteran presence, even if he hasn't looked all that great thus far. I think he'll come around once the bullets start flying for real.

Tight End (3): Heath Miller, Matt Spaeth, David Johnson.

They love Johnson's blocking. No one else has really established themselves. They're going to keep three guys. The other two people that they will keep are pretty much no brainers.

Offensive Line (9): Trai Essex, Justin Hartwig, Max Starks, Chris Kemoeatu, Willie Colon, Doug Legursky, Jason Capizzi, Kraig Urbik, Tony Hills.

Scary, right? That's what we have to work with. DFS was placed on injured reserve today. Yay!

Defensive Line (6): Brett Keisel, Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton, Chris Hoke, Ziggy Hood, Travis Kirschke.

They may swap out Nick Eason for Kirschke because he's younger, but they only play three at a time in their base defense, so they can't keep seven because they have too many good linebackers.

Linebackers (9): James Harrison, James Farrior, LaMarr Woodley, Lawrence Timmons, Keyaron Fox, Donovan Woods, Andre Frazier, Arnold Harrison, Patrick Bailey.

Bailey is a special teams ace and was the 2008 Steelers Rookie of the Year. Harrison is a great back-up that can play all four positions. Frazier can back up James Harrison and Farrior, he's great on special teams, is really good in general, and will probably make the roster because this is the first time in a long time that the Steelers don't need to place him on IR. Woods is another great back-up that can play a lot of positions and is good on special teams. Let's just hope his hamstring injury doesn't linger.

Also, the Bruce Davis Experiment is over. They cut him today.

While we're here, I noticed something against the Panthers:

1. This is a different defense without James Harrison. It's still a great defense, but it's not a pressure defense. Harrison makes the line and Woodley better. We need him. He better be ready for the regular season.
2. Given that, anyone that thinks Harrison didn't deserve Defensive Player of the Year last year can suck it.

Defensive Backs (9): William Gay, Ike Taylor, Deshea Townsend, Keiwan Ratliff, Joe Burnett, Tyrone Carter, Troy Polamalu, Ryan Clark, Ryan Mundy.

I was convinced all day that Mundy wouldn't make the roster, but we need four safeties. Also, the Steelers did me a favor and released Anthony Madison. I think that he's going to come back to haunt us covering kicks for another team. He's a great special teams guy and we maybe should've kept him.

Special Teams (3): Greg Warren, Danny Vulva aka the Sepulverizer, Jeff Reed.

Any questions on that? Seems pretty straightforward.

We may keep ten linebackers and nine defensive backs, but that's how I think it will shake out.