Steelers vs. Packers Review

I think that yesterday conclusively proved what I've been thinking all along: The 2009 Steelers season is a sentient force that is trying to murder me.

That's the only reasonable conclusion I can draw, given all the tight games, overtime games, big plays given up (and made), and five losses in the last 14 seconds of a game or overtime. The 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers are trying to kill me. If they make it into the playoffs, that force may well succeed.

I stopped by a Rite Aid to pick up some chips on my way home and the clerk asked me what happened in the game. I said, "It was crazy. Ben passed for 503 yards, there were huge plays everywhere, Mike Wallace caught a 60-yard touchdown and the game-winner, and Tomlin called an onside kick with three minutes left... with the lead. They almost blew a ten point fourth quarter lead and, with no time left on the clock, Wallace caught a pass just like the one Santonio caught to win the Super Bowl. Except that it was from 20 yards out. And to the front corner of the left side of the end zone as opposed to back corner of the right side. Also, it was the last play of regulation. I mentioned that, right?"

My prediction was going to be Packers 27, Steelers 10, so I'm glad I didn't post that anywhere. Just a crazy game and I'm still reeling from it.

We could talk about how the pass defense folded again. We could talk about how we honked away another lead, couldn't run the ball when it counted, couldn't close the game out, and struggled in the red zone. We could talk about all that, but it's been hashed and re-hashed so many times that I'm tired of it. Those are the issues of the 2009 Steelers. Last year's team had its issues, too, and the defense bailed them out. It remains to be seen whether or not the offense can bail the team out this year.

I doubt it can, but that would be another crazy thing to happen in this crazy season that is trying to kill me.

So, basically, we're left with two questions in the aftermath of the most thrilling Steelers victory I've witnessed since either the 2002 Wildcard game against the Browns or Super Bowl XLIII (which we won, btw).

1. Why the hell would Tomlin go for an onside kick with a two point lead?
2. How does the playoff picture look?

For #1, he went for the onside kick because he didn't trust his defense. That's it. We could go back and forth about how it was a gamble and how, if Ike Taylor had touched the ball at the 40 instead of the 39 we'd be calling Tomlin a genius, but the end result of that attempt is that he announced that he doesn't trust his defense. Recover it or give it up, Tomlin threw his entire defense to the wolves when he decided to go for the onside kick.

Now, the last time Tomlin challenged his defense, they responded by destroying the Denver Broncos on the road. But that was more of a ribbing -- he kept calling the Broncs the number one defense in the league (which they were at the time -- and it was more like busting your buddy's chops at a roast. What he did on Sunday was like saying your buddy had an affair in front of his wife and her family at Christmas dinner.

There are two possible results:

1. The defense quits on Tomlin in order to make him look like an idiot and the season is lost.
2. The defense responds in a big way and establishes dominance the rest of the season in order to make Tomlin look like an idiot.

You can obviously figure out which result I'd rather see, but I really think it's an either or situation and it needs to be on either extreme end of the spectrum. Things won't be status quo and the defense won't sulk a little or play with a bit of a chip on their shoulders. Everyone was happy at the end of the game yesterday, but today everyone is pissed off and sore. And, really, the balance of the season depends on how the defense responds.

They sure didn't step up to the challenge yesterday, but it was too fresh, too sudden, to shocking. Now that they've had some time to ponder -- and they'll have nothing but time and full contact practices to let that bubble up the rest of the week -- we'll find out how they will respond.

For the playoffs, the outlook just got a whole lot rosier with Jacksonville, Miami, and the Jets losing this week.

Obviously, we need to win out. If we do, we'll hold tiebreakers over pretty much everyone but the hated Ravens. So, Denver needs to finish 1-1, because we hold a tiebreaker over them and the hated Ravens really need to lose out. That means they need to lose to Oakland in Oakland with the season on the line, but that's pretty much the long and the short of it.

We're in a pile with a bunch of teams that could all finish 9-7. Now, obviously, if the Broncos lose out, then we'll finish as the sixth seed with the hated Ravens being the fifth seed.

Basically, it looked impossible going into this week, but now just looks unlikely. I really think the biggest obstacle we have in front of us is ourselves. I don't know that we have it in us to win these next two games and make that final push towards a playoff berth.

But, I guess it all starts with that first step. And that means Sunday's game against the hated Ravens is essentially a playoff game.

Should the Steelers Lose Out

The other thing I've heard a lot since Thursday night is that people are wondering whether or not the Steelers should try to lose the rest of their games now that they're out of the playoffs and I wanted to weigh in.

The thinking behind this strategy is that the more games we lose, the better our draft pick in the 2010 draft. The better our pick, the better the player we get in the first round. The better player we get, the less we'll suck in 2010.

Well, I think it's a bad idea for a number of reasons:

1. We're currently the 18th worst team in the league according to NFL.com. That means we'd get the 15th overall pick if the season ended today. That's not a bad pick at all.
2. There are currently eight teams with eight losses or more through 12 games (we've played 13), so that means that, even if we lose out, there will be plenty of teams in front of us that have lost more than ten games. If you can't get into the top 10 by losing out, then it's really not worth it.
3. There are seven teams (including us) with seven or more losses. That means there are six teams that could also lose out and it wouldn't really matter, since there would be a cluster of us.
4. Of the seven loss teams, we're the best (because we've won six games and they've all won five).
5. Chances are that we'll finish 7-9 or 8-8 anyway, so it's better to break up the losing streak and finish strong.
6. If we finish at 7-9 or 8-8, then we'll be in a bucket with a bunch of other teams, since one of the side effects of parity is that you have a lot of teams at or near .500. Right now, NFL.com has the standings stacked according to conference record. At draft time, the board will be stacked according to the schedule strength of the team's opponents. Since we've played a soft schedule and still sucked, we'll be stacked higher than other 7-9 or 8-8 teams. The idea is that the worst team gets the best pick. If you played a tough schedule and lost eight games, you're better than a team that played an easy schedule and lost eight games, so you get the worse pick. So, we'll be the worst of the bunch in the middle and get the best pick of those teams.
7. No matter how much coaches preach about how last season is last season and has nothing to do with this season, it still matters. An eight game losing streak is no way to close out a season and it will be on everyone's minds heading into 2010. If we can salvage a couple games down the stretch, that will give us something to build on. After all, with all the talk about how last season was last season, there surely were some guys on the 2009 Steelers that said, "Hey, coach, you know we won the Super Bowl last year, right?"

Basically, losing out will move us from about 14 or 15 to about 12 or 11. Winning out will move us from about 14 or 15 to about 17 or 18. If you can't get into the top ten -- or really, if you can't get into the top five, and those spots are locked up at this point -- then there's really no value in losing out.

Winning at least some of these games will restore some of our lost confidence and give us some momentum heading into next season. And, if we finish 9-7 and either sneak into the playoffs or narrowly miss the playoffs, we can say that next year we'll take that next step.

At 6-10, you're saying, "Ah, crap. Last season was a total failure. We need to overhaul everything and get on track." Well, I don't think we need to overhaul everything. I think we need a top 20 player to fill in some of the gaps. We don't have as many issues as a team with a top ten or top five pick would have, so the ego ramifications of losing ten games this year, as well as the salary cap ramifications (rookie salaries start to get palatable around the 15th pick or so) do not outweigh the quality difference between the pick we have and the pick we could get.

Then there's this simple fact: Tomlin hates rookies. Why spend a high pick on a guy that's going to be nailed to the bench all year? That's more subjective and more of an opinion than a true verifiable fact, but it's another argument against losing out.

Steelers vs. Browns Review

Hey, at least my prediction was right! I was way off on the score, but I finally picked the correct winner.

That is little consolation, though.

No one thought the Steelers should win this game, but a lot of people thought they would. I was in that camp and, sadly, that really should be the way we look at things moving forward.

I think there's enough talent on this team, enough veteran leadership, and strong enough coaching for the Steelers to win out and finish a respectable 9-7. Do I think that will happen? No. No I do not.

I've had a number of people come up to me or e-mail me and ask this: "Are the Steelers the worst team in the league right now?" Well, they're not the least talented, but, given who they've played and the results that came from those games, I think you can safely say that the Pittsburgh Steelers are playing the worst football in the NFL right now.

They have major issues. They've had major issues. The issues can be fixed, but, if they haven't been fixed yet, it's fair to ask whether or not they'll magically be fixed by the end of the season.

Mike Tomlin is not a crappy coach and should not be fired and replaced. As I espoused during the Cowher Era, you have to ask yourself the following two questions when you're looking to replace your coach:

1. Who's available that's better?
2. How quickly would someone snatch Tomlin up if he were fired, even if it meant firing their current coach?

The answer to #1 is: No one. Not even Cowher. I was, am, and will be a big fan of the guy, but he's been an analyst for three seasons now, he'll be 53 when next season starts, and he'll want roughly 58 quadrillion dollars a year to coach. And he'll want to have control over all football decisions. And the Rooneys (and Kevin Colbert) will not acquiesce to those demands.

Also, really any guy that could potentially better would have the money and football demands that Cowher does, so that rules out #1.

For #2, I actually think the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns would all fire their respective coaches and immediately hire Tomlin. And those three teams just beat us. So there you go.

Who's fault is it, then?

Well, for a collapse of this magnitude, you really have to say it's everyone's fault.

Bruce Arians sends everyone deep on every passing play and doesn't use a lot of misdirection in the running game. That strategy worked for the last two seasons to the tune of two division titles and a Super Bowl ring (remember, we did win Super Bowl XLIII, in case anyone forgot), so, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. The issue is that it's now broken because the other teams in the league have adjusted, so you need to fix it. But they haven't. So... it's still broke. Arians believed that he could run the ball at will on Thursday night and throw deep all he wanted to on the overmatched Cleveland cornerbacks. The problem is that the Browns did better defending the run than we thought they would and their cornerbacks sure didn't look overmatched to me. We didn't adjust by running more short routes (screen passes to the wide receivers don't count) and we didn't run Fast Willie or Mendenhall to the outside after it was evident that the area between the tackles was all jammed up.

Therefore, that needs to be fixed.

The other issue is that Ben Roethlisberger is pressing too much and trying to throw a 115 yard touchdown pass on every play. He doesn't seem to realize that this is impossible and no one seems to be saying, "Uh, dude, just check it down. There isn't a guy within 15 yards of Mendenhall on every play." That's the big reason he got sacked eight times on Thursday night, but the offensive line wasn't too great, either.

I actually don't think this is the offensive line's fault. I think Ben's doing what he did towards the end of the 2004 season, for most of the 2006 season, and for stretches in 2008. He's trying too hard and he's not letting the game come to him. He's not looking at hot reads and he's constantly looking past guys that are open and trying to hit the guys that are covered and 40 yards down the field.

That needs to be fixed.

We're dropping too many passes and we're experiencing too many brain farts in the passing game. Roethlisberger didn't drop that potential touchdown pass in the fourth quarter, Heath Miller did. And we've had a lot of those recently.

The problem there is that there's really no way to fix that, you just have to hope that it works out, or you have to go get new guys. At this level, you really can't teach a receiver to catch a football. It's kind of like having a sales guy that doesn't want to talk to customers. You either hope he gets over that, or you fire him. There's really no, "Steve, why don't you pick up the phone and call someone?" You can say that again and again, just like you can scream, "Catch the ball, Limas!" again and again, but it's ultimately up to the guy to do his job.

I never thought I'd say this, but Dick LeBeau is not calling enough blitzes. During the losing streak, our cornerbacks have been exposed for what they are. They are who we thought they were. They can't cover guys for four seconds. They just can't. The only way to solve that is to blitz the tits off the opposing quarterback. Sure, you could let up some big plays and some receivers could get behind the coverage... but that's different than what's been happening for the past five weeks... how, exactly? This has been an issue since Kevin Greene was on the team and it's not going away.

Therefore, we need to fix that.

On the personnel side, James Harrison's contribution to the defense is basically to draw holding penalties. I think the guys we have on the defensive line are actually doing a great job. We can still stop the run (for the most part) and that's where the issue stems from if you can't stop the run. Since we're stopping the run, they're cool.

And LaMarr Woodley is quietly having himself one hell of a season. He's getting sacks, making plays all over the field, and he's doing it without offenses paying a lot of attention to Harrison. So... that's a good thing.

Lawrence Timmons isn't ready to be an every down guy. He was fantastic last season when he had to do a few select things really, really well. Now that he has to do a bunch of things adequately, he's failing. But, go back to whether or not we should fire Tomlin and you'll get your answer as to whether or not we should fire Timmons. Give him the rest of the year. Give him the offseason and training camp and the preseason. I think he turns it around in 2010. If not, you've got a sales guy situation, which is untenable and you need to fire him.

Ryan Clark is not as effective without Troy Polamalu back there. I think that's the biggest difference we're seeing in Troy's absence. Clark misses him and it shows. And Ryan Mundy and Tyrone Carter are not bad, they're just not sufficient.

The biggest thing that stands out to me is that James Farrior has taken a pretty precipitous fall from grace. I know he's 100 years old, but he went from great to crappy in like two seconds. I can understand if he doesn't move as well as he used to. It happens after your 95th birthday and I acknowledge that. The problem with Farrior is that he's not adjusting. He's a smart guy. He's got great fundamentals and tremendous instincts. Cal Ripken was able to play shortstop long after he'd lost a step (and didn't really have one to lose) because he was able to do all the little things he needed to do to be in position. Farrior's not doing that and it's starting to erode his game. When was the last time you saw Farrior botch a tackle like he did on the long Cribbs run Thursday night? I can't remember the last time I saw that happen, if it ever has happened. Sadly, he's a sales guy.

The playoffs are off the table. Even if we somehow snuck in, we're not going to the Super Bowl. There are too many issues to fix.

That means we need to take the rest of the season and see how many Tomlins we have and how many sales guys we have. And then make some tough decisions in the offseason.

Casey Hampton's going to be a free agent. So is Aaron Smith. I know I've been talking about it since Tomlin was hired, but maybe next season is when we make the switch to the 4-3. Maybe LeBeau is ready to retire. Maybe Arians needs to go and we need to get a guy -- maybe a guy like Frank Reich -- whose star is on the rise and who is better at dealing with quarterbacks.

Like I said, tough decisions.

But, ultimately, I think we've got a lot of pieces. Despite the fact that Cleveland, Oakland, and Kansas City all schooled us, we've got fewer issues and more pieces than they do overall. The past five games? We've got more issues. Overall, we have fewer issues.

We've got great linebackers, good defensive linemen, and one of the most explosive playmakers in the NFL at safety. We've got a lot of talent at receivers (admittedly, some Tomlins, some sales guys), a franchise quarterback, good running backs, and an underrated offensive line. We've got the Sepulverizer (aka Danny Vulva) and we might still have Jeff Reed in 2010 and beyond (I hope we do).

These guys are better than this. They've played better than this. We've seen them play better than this, as recently as this season.

Tomlin, Arians, and LeBeau didn't suffer concussions a month and a half ago and forget how to coach. They're great coaches, they're just not adjusting to what the other teams are doing as well as they normally do and part of that is because they expect the players to execute better than they have. You can look awfully smart when your players are playing well and awfully dumb when they are playing poorly. As we've discussed, the players are playing poorly right now.

We've got three games left. It's time to see what we've got and how we can get where we want to go.

Steelers vs. Browns Preview

So, I took a look at my predictions thus far this season and I can't believe how wrong I was. I have to say that I'm not sure why anyone reads this blog at this point, aside from the occasional Hillary Clinton joke.

For this week, I can honestly say two things: The Steelers are better than their record and the Browns (if possible) are worse than their record.

Cleveland sucks. It has been documented across numerous sources. The Steelers, aside from special teams struggles, fourth quarter defensive issues, and red zone problems on both sides of the ball, do not suck. It has been documented... well, mostly by me. I guess I'm the one that's still stupid enough to have faith.

If this game was played by a Madden simulator, we'd win 99.44 percent of the time. This Thursday? I don't know. I really don't know. I knew we'd beat the Chiefs. I knew we'd beat the Raiders. And we didn't.

So... reasons that Cleveland will win, since the reasons the Steelers will win are obvious (more talented, more to play for, have won the last 11):

1. William Gay sucks and is hurt.
2. Ike Taylor may be benched.
3. This means we'll be starting two rookies at cornerback, included the stone-handed Joe Burnett (who I still am convinced will be awesome).
4. This their Super Bowl, as we're the wounded champs, they're the prohibitive underdog, they're at home, it's in prime time, and this "rivalry" means waaaaaaaaaaay more to them than it does to us.
5. Their head coach (who they may possibly hate, but desperate situations have the effect of bringing out the best in people) may have his job on the line.
6. Brady Quinn doesn't know his future and can cement it with a huge upset victory.
7. Josh Cribbs.
8. Every scrub on the team can say, "Hey, we went 2-14, but at least we beat the defending champs."
9. We're reeling balls and may not be able to beat a Pop Warner squad at this point.
10. I mentioned that this game is in prime time and is the one remaining game for most of these guys to step up and get noticed by a good team, right? Well, if not, it's another reason.

Ways we win:

1. Mike Tomlin actually has control of this team.
2. The guys on this roster actually have some pride left.
3. We take their best punch in the first half (and, trust me, it'll be a big one) and we come out swinging in the second half.
4. We understand that our cornerbacks are weak and blitz the tits off Brady Quinn.

Tallying things up, that's four reasons we win and ten reasons they win.

Therefore...

Prediction:

Browns 27, Steelers 24 (popular final, right?)

Steelers vs. Raiders Review

And... it's over. Farts. Double farts!

We made Bruce Gradkowski look like Ken Stabler -- actually, I don't know that Stabler had a game that was as strong as Gradkowski's throughout the course of his career -- and we made the second-worst run defense in the NFL look like the Vikings (of today and of old). If you look at Mendenhall's numbers, he finished with 103 yards on 20 carries, but he got 60 of those on one carry. So, that means he got 43 yards on his other 19 carries. And he couldn't get it done in short yardage situations.

And we choked in the red zone. And we fell apart in the fourth quarter. The only thing that was missing from this game was a long return allowed by special teams. Otherwise, it was like every other crappy game we've played thus far in 2009.

Take away the fact that a team that just lost four straight now needs to win four straight. Take away the fact that we need to beat four teams that are better than the Raiders and the Chiefs. Take away the fact that we still need a lot of help to make the playoffs as the sixth seed even if we do win out. Take all that away, because a team that's this inconsistent and unfocused does not deserve to make the playoffs.

And that's really it. You can blame Joe Burnett. You can blame William Gay. You can blame the offensive line or Ben (he did throw a red zone interception). You could blame the red zone struggles on both offense and defense. You could blame Ryan Mundy for leading with his helmet. There's plenty of blame to go around.

But, they're not focused. They're not consistent. They lost to teams that are as god-awful as the Raiders and Chiefs. Sure, they beat the Vikings, Chargers, and Broncos. But, that's because they're inconsistent. They still haven't put everything together -- offense, defense, and special teams -- for a full 60 minutes. The running game wasn't there in the second half, but the passing game was on fire. The run defense was actually a little porous against an anemic running attack like the one the Raiders have. For some unknown reason, we decided to stop pressuring Gradkowski and the result was two touchdowns by Louis Murphy.

Yes, Gay looked horrible. Yes, Ike Taylor got exposed and may get benched (and so could Gay and they deserve it). Those things happened, but it's a fundamental aspect of this defense that you need to pressure the quarterback to defend the pass. If the quarterback has time to scan the field, he will find someone and that someone will be more and more open converse to the amount of time the quarterback is able to hold the ball and scan the field. We spend too much money on our front seven (and Troy) to spend much on cornerbacks. And missing Troy hurts. And Tyrone Carter basically had one good game. And Ryan Clark maybe needs Troy to cover for some of his mistakes.

We outgained them. We outran them. We averaged 7.1 yards per play. But we didn't outhustle them. We didn't beat them down and gain 7.1 yards per play on the plays that mattered. And we didn't outexecute them. We got outexecuted by the Oakland Raiders. And the Kansas City Chiefs. And by the Bengals in a BIG way.

And that, my friends, is why we don't deserve to go to the playoffs.

I hope we put some young guys in and see what we have. I hope this is a wake up call for Tomlin and that he stops with his irrational hatred of all rookies. I'd like to see more Ziggy Hood. Even though he has hands of stone, I'd like to see more Joe Burnett. I'd like to see more Mike Wallace -- and it looks like I will because Hines probably won't play on Thursday.

Right now, we're wounded and we're cornered. The next four weeks are going to help determine Mike Tomlin's legacy. And cement Dick LeBeau's legacy. They will determine/cement the legacies of a lot of the guys on this team.

If we close out the season as fractured, inconsistent, and unfocused as we've started it, then we've got serious questions about the future of a lot of these guys and this team. This team is too talented to be 6-6. They're too good to let up 308 yards passing and 27 points to the Raiders. But, that's where we are.

I said previously that November separates the contenders from the pretenders and that December settles everything for January. Looks like we got separated into that "pretender" pile, so we need to settle everything we can settle between now and the end of the season. I think jobs are on the line (for the players), legacies are on the line, and reputations and pride are on the line.

We've got a month to figure out if that means anything to the players and coaches involved.

Steelers vs. Raiders Preview

Well, Pitt went and choked away the Big East championship, so that sucks. Hopefully, tomorrow will be better. I was talking to my neighbor yesterday and he said that every time Pitt and Penn State lose, the Steelers lose. So, fight on State! Can't believe I just wrote that.

I can't believe that I'm looking at leading indicators and hoping that Penn State wins just so I can feel more confident that the Steelers are going to beat the Raiders at home. But, it's been a weird season. I think I might have mentioned that at some point.

I'm not going to sugarcoat the fact that the Raiders suck. They suck. Hard. They might actually be worse than the Chiefs, considering that they lost to the Chiefs. But, I'm not going to sugarcoat the fact that we lost to the Chiefs. So there's that.

Their offense is abysmal and their defense isn't much better. They're 32nd in points scored (10.5 per game, which would be impressive if it weren't so sad... and worse than Cleveland). They're 31st in total offense and 32nd in pass offense. JaMarcus Russell's passer rating was is 47.7. If you throw every pass incomplete, your passer rating is 38.

Now, they have local boy Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback, which is an improvement. But, that's like saying that Hillary Clinton is slightly hotter than John Travolta in drag. You're really not gaining that much. Gradkowski is currently rocking a 66.3 passer rating. So... good for him.

Justin Fargas (aka Huggy Bear's Kid) is sporting a 3.9 yard per carry average. They will try to establish the run, but if Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson didn't do all that well against us, I'm thinking Huggy Bear's Kid will not fare well. But, Chris Chambers and Jamaal Charles smoked us, so who really knows.

Their defense ranks 31st against the run (161 yards per game) and is 23rd in points allowed. They're 29th in total yards allowed because their pass defense is ranked 17th. But, their pass defense is ranked 17th because their cornerbacks are decent and teams run so well against them that they don't need to throw.

We need to get Mendenhall going early and mix in some Willie Parker because their safeties are weak and their linebackers are slow, which is where Fast Willie is at his best. I think we need to dominate the line of scrimmage, because Roethlisberger probably still has some cobwebs floating around and hasn't really had a full week of practice because the Steelers weren't sure if he'd play or not. He said he was "ready to get out there," which is good enough for me.

Even if he's a little muddled, Roethlisberger gives us more options on offense than anyone else, which is always a good thing. The only issue I have is that he could have a game like Tommy Maddox did against the Texans when he came back from his neck injury in 2002. Maddox turned the ball over three times and Houston scored two defensive touchdowns. He called a timeout with the clock running and one second left in the third quarter. He wasn't himself and it cost the Steelers the game. They lost 24-6 even though the Texans had 70 total yards and David Carr was 3 for 10 with 33 yards passing.

That's what Oakland needs to happen to win. They need a defensive touchdown and a special teams touchdown. They need Ben to channel Tommy. They're simply not good enough to beat the Steelers if the Steelers come to play and don't throw the game away.

But, that happened against the Texans. It happened against the Chiefs. It could happen again.

If you're looking for another leading indicator, though... I'm going to the game tomorrow. I'm 13-1 when I see the Steelers play live, so that's about as good as leading indicators get. Let's hope I can move to 14-1.

Yes. I'm nervous about losing this game. And that's sad. But, it's been a weird season. To make the playoffs, we need to get on a run. Sunday could start that run.

Prediction:

Steelers 28, Raiders 3

Steelers vs. hated Ravens Review

Well, if I had written a preview, it basically would have said: "We're boned. I'm sorry. We're going to lose to the hated Ravens." The best angle I would have had would have been if the Pens had lost on Saturday night. My thinking was that the Pens lost Friday and Pitt shot themselves in the foot on Friday. There was no way that the Steelers were going to lose on Sunday if the Pens lost Saturday, because God wouldn't do that to me. Unfortunately (fortunately?) the Pens won on Saturday, so that left the door open for God to only mostly ruin my weekend of sports, which He did.

Not upset. I had a great weekend otherwise. Just saying that He mostly ruined it. And mostly ruined is still partly alive. I also went 1-3 in my four fantasy leagues, but those games weren't officially decided until Monday night anyway, so that doesn't really count.

The good news is that I had a great weekend otherwise, the Pens crushed the Rangers, Pitt can still (technically) win the Big East, the Steelers can still (technically) get in the playoffs, and I can still (technically) make the playoffs in 3 out of 4 fantasy leagues. All good things.

I don't understand why some people are coming down on Dennis Dixon. He's a third string quarterback for a reason. He hadn't played a meaningful game since November 2007 for a reason. That wasn't Stanford he was up against, that was a very good hated Ravens defense. He had half a week of practice and didn't know for sure if he was starting until Friday. I thought he did well for 65 minutes, then just made a bad read. And Baltimore had a good scheme set up.

But, the game turned on that one play and there's nothing that can be done about it. Dixon could work on that in practice this week, but it looks like Ben Roethlisberger will be back against Oakland, so what's the point?

I'm also not sure why anyone -- Hines Ward in particular -- was questioning why Ben wasn't able to play. Something was up with his brain. The brain is delicate. The brain is important. If the doctor says that a violent collision (like, say, one that you'd encounter 60 times a game on a football field) could end your life or give you serious neural issues, you take a break. Just like with Ryan Clark, the win wasn't worth someone's life.

Just like every other week, I didn't think the Steelers looked bad, I thought they looked good. They failed to make some plays, sure, but you'll always have that. I thought they moved the ball well. I thought they opened up some extraordinary holes for Mendenhall when the hated Ravens were putting eight guys in the box because they didn't fear Dixon. I was impressed by the fact that Dixon was not sacked. I was impressed by the fact that, once again, we knocked Joe Flacco's dick into his watch pocket. I thought the coverage units were solid. The one big return got called back. The coverage units still make me nervous, but I think they'll be much better with Rocky Boiman and Anthony Madison in there. I think Vulva is awesome. I think Stefan Logan... well, I still can't figure out why Stefan Logan isn't living up to the preseason hype.

I also think that we wouldn't have needed overtime if we had run a draw play on 2nd and 10 and then gone for the first down on 3rd and 6 or 7. Going deep on first down, then again on second, then running a draw play to keep something bad from happening because you don't have faith in your quarterback is not the way to operate that last drive. You went into the series knowing you didn't have faith in your quarterback. If you're going to run a fraidy-cat, safe play, run it on second down -- or on first down, then second down -- and give yourself a more manageable third down situation.

But, the game turned on that interception. And we wouldn't have lost to Chicago if Jeff Reed had made those two kicks. And we wouldn't lost to the Bengals the first time if a third string fullback hadn't converted on 4th and 11. And we wouldn't have lost to the Chiefs without them turning all of those crazy, big plays. So, really we should be 10-1.

Well, we could also be 4-7. Maybe we don't get the coin toss against Tennessee. Maybe Stafford plays instead of Culpepper, Calvin Johnson doesn't get hurt, and Culpepper doesn't get sacked three times to end the game. Maybe we don't get those two defensive touchdowns and everyone looks at the kickoff return by Percy Harvin as the play that killed the season.

The point is that the margin for error in the NFL is very, very slim. When you lean on your defense as much as we do, it gets slimmer and slimmer. Therefore, we should focus on becoming an offensive juggernaut. The two teams that are undefeated right now have amazing offenses. The 10-1 Vikings are second in the league in scoring.

The issue there is that we're not set up to be that kind of team. So, we live and die by whether or not we make those key plays. We look ahead and see Josh Cribbs and Ted Ginn on the schedule and hold our collective breaths.

It has been a weird season. We have underperformed. We have struggled in all facets of the game, but at different times. We've lost five games by a combined 18 points. We haven't played a complete game as a team for the full 60 minutes.

This could mean that the best is yet to come, but it could also mean that our luck has run out.

We'll know more in eight days. By then, we'll have played Oakland and Cleveland. If we lose either of those games, we won't be mathmatically eliminated from the playoffs, but we'll be effectively eliminated from the playoffs. After those two games, we'll have a better idea of what it means now that we're 8-5. Or 7-6. Or 6-7. Yikes, I hope not 7-6 or 6-7.

The wild card race is crazy. There are tons of teams in the mix. And we have a head-to-head tiebreaker over three of them. So, the season is far from over, but we've definitely given ourselves a very small margin for error.