Well, Pitt went and choked away the Big East championship, so that sucks. Hopefully, tomorrow will be better. I was talking to my neighbor yesterday and he said that every time Pitt and Penn State lose, the Steelers lose. So, fight on State! Can't believe I just wrote that.
I can't believe that I'm looking at leading indicators and hoping that Penn State wins just so I can feel more confident that the Steelers are going to beat the Raiders at home. But, it's been a weird season. I think I might have mentioned that at some point.
I'm not going to sugarcoat the fact that the Raiders suck. They suck. Hard. They might actually be worse than the Chiefs, considering that they lost to the Chiefs. But, I'm not going to sugarcoat the fact that we lost to the Chiefs. So there's that.
Their offense is abysmal and their defense isn't much better. They're 32nd in points scored (10.5 per game, which would be impressive if it weren't so sad... and worse than Cleveland). They're 31st in total offense and 32nd in pass offense. JaMarcus Russell's passer rating was is 47.7. If you throw every pass incomplete, your passer rating is 38.
Now, they have local boy Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback, which is an improvement. But, that's like saying that Hillary Clinton is slightly hotter than John Travolta in drag. You're really not gaining that much. Gradkowski is currently rocking a 66.3 passer rating. So... good for him.
Justin Fargas (aka Huggy Bear's Kid) is sporting a 3.9 yard per carry average. They will try to establish the run, but if Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson didn't do all that well against us, I'm thinking Huggy Bear's Kid will not fare well. But, Chris Chambers and Jamaal Charles smoked us, so who really knows.
Their defense ranks 31st against the run (161 yards per game) and is 23rd in points allowed. They're 29th in total yards allowed because their pass defense is ranked 17th. But, their pass defense is ranked 17th because their cornerbacks are decent and teams run so well against them that they don't need to throw.
We need to get Mendenhall going early and mix in some Willie Parker because their safeties are weak and their linebackers are slow, which is where Fast Willie is at his best. I think we need to dominate the line of scrimmage, because Roethlisberger probably still has some cobwebs floating around and hasn't really had a full week of practice because the Steelers weren't sure if he'd play or not. He said he was "ready to get out there," which is good enough for me.
Even if he's a little muddled, Roethlisberger gives us more options on offense than anyone else, which is always a good thing. The only issue I have is that he could have a game like Tommy Maddox did against the Texans when he came back from his neck injury in 2002. Maddox turned the ball over three times and Houston scored two defensive touchdowns. He called a timeout with the clock running and one second left in the third quarter. He wasn't himself and it cost the Steelers the game. They lost 24-6 even though the Texans had 70 total yards and David Carr was 3 for 10 with 33 yards passing.
That's what Oakland needs to happen to win. They need a defensive touchdown and a special teams touchdown. They need Ben to channel Tommy. They're simply not good enough to beat the Steelers if the Steelers come to play and don't throw the game away.
But, that happened against the Texans. It happened against the Chiefs. It could happen again.
If you're looking for another leading indicator, though... I'm going to the game tomorrow. I'm 13-1 when I see the Steelers play live, so that's about as good as leading indicators get. Let's hope I can move to 14-1.
Yes. I'm nervous about losing this game. And that's sad. But, it's been a weird season. To make the playoffs, we need to get on a run. Sunday could start that run.
Prediction:
Steelers 28, Raiders 3
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