1. Maybe this is the year you don't take RB, RB, WR in the first three rounds.
That had been my strategy for years. The idea behind taking two running backs in the first three rounds -- I'd take a receiver in the first or second round if it was a really great player -- was that you want guys that are going to touch the ball a lot. They can't score points if they don't have the ball, so get the guys that have the ball the most. Receivers only get a shot at the ball when someone throws it to them and tight ends get thrown at less than receivers.
So, it went great running backs on teams that run a lot, then guys that get the ball a lot on teams that run the ball OK, then guys that get most of the carries and can maybe catch the ball. After that, you were left with a grab bag of guys that split carries, specialty backs that did well on third downs, guys that were going to get the ball a lot but played on crappy teams that couldn't run the ball, and back-ups.
Now, pretty much everyone has a split-carry situation or they're on a team that doesn't run the ball well or doesn't run the ball much. As far as guys that are uncontested, talented players on teams that will run the ball a lot, you've got Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, and Frank Gore. And guess what? Those are your top six fantasy football players in some order.
After that, there are a couple receivers and even a couple of quarterbacks. When the original rankings came out in June -- one of the things the fantasy football experts don't share with you is that the top 20 doesn't change much from then until draft time -- there were six running backs, two receivers, and two quarterbacks. Usually there are eight or nine running backs and one or two receivers.
The reason for this is that there are those top five guys, then a hodgepodge of dudes that have some question mark or red flag attached to them. Just like in the real draft, the more red flags you have, the lower you get picked. Those quarterbacks and receivers have fewer red flags than the running backs that used to be selected ahead of them.
Also, teams are passing more nowadays because it's easier for them to pass than it is to run. So, now you've got those three BIG quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning, then you've got a pretty nice second tier of guys. The thing is that any of them could blow up at any time, so there's less risk (because teams are passing so much guys will get their stats and quarterback rating isn't factored into the scoring for almost all fantasy sites) and tons of upside (since you could snag the next Matt Schaub).
And, since there's that cluster of guys, there isn't too much of a difference between a timeshare guy like Joseph Addai (29th) and a timeshare guy like Jamaal Charles (38th), so you can grab a receiver or quarterback instead of a Addai and be fairly confident that Charles will be there when the pick swings back. Or, you could just take Ronnie Brown. Or LeSean McCoy. There's this huge cluster of guys that could all do well or all get hurt and screw you, so there's no tremendous difference between the seventh ranked running back and the 18th ranked running back. That means that no one will scoop all of them up at once and you'll have your pick of the cluster. Even after the cluster, there are some guys that will be great fill-ins or trade material late, such as Clinton Portis and possibly even Matt Forte or Fred Jackson (maybe even Darren McFadden?)
The point is that there are more questions than answers at running back at this point and you generally take guys in the early rounds that are more "sure things" and there are more "sure things" at quarterback and receiver right now. After the top-tier guys, it gets a little murky, so a lot of fantasy football players are going to pull the trigger on the sure thing so they don't get stuck with a guy with a bunch of red flags. They can always pull a timeshare running back off the pile and hope their big-time QB or WR bails them out most weeks.
Plus which, if you want to get the best guy that touches the ball the most, quarterbacks touch the ball on every play. The best quarterbacks complete 65 percent of their passes. If the guy passes 40 times a game and gets ten yards a completion, that's better than Chris Johnson can get you on 20 carries.
2. Trust your cheat sheet.
Don't get cute is what I'm saying. I honestly have no idea who the 48th best receiver in fantasy football is. If you put a gun to my head and asked me to choose between Reggie Wayne and Brandon Marshall, I wouldn't be giving you a firm answer. Who knows which of those guys is better? Trust the cheat sheet.
There are tons of them available and the more reputable sites (I like ESPN.com's one, but Sportsline and Yahoo! have good ones) are all about the same. You can tweak it when you get it into a spreadsheet or print it out, but don't get to cute. The people that compiled that cheat sheet spent way more time researching trends and stats and targets and stuff. And guess what? They're not experts, either. It mostly comes down to luck, timing, and the player themselves. Meteorologists go to school for 6-7 years and they can't predict for sure whether it's going to rain tomorrow.
Who the hell knows? If it's wrong, at least you can blame the cheat sheet. Especially in the first few rounds, grab the top guy on your board. You don't want to take two quarterbacks in the first two rounds -- unless your league starts two -- but best player available is a sound strategy.
As mentioned above, the running back you get in Round 6 might be as good as a Round 2 guy, so take the wide receiver if he's ranked higher. Every time I've thought I out-foxed the competition and identified a super sleeper I've had a bad season. When I've trusted the cheat sheet, I've had a good season.
3. Use the Internet.
The Internet has really leveled the fantasy football playing field to the point where it really doesn't pay to have a "special list" of guys that you're targeting in each round. Everyone is working off the same, basic list, so it's pretty easy to peg a player that you want, look at alternates if he's gone, and have a decent sense for who's going to be available when you pick next. It has streamlined everything and it has made the work that you do after the draft and during the season that much more important.
We had a guy at a draft last week that where we had a guy subbing in for someone that couldn't make it. This guy had never drafted a fantasy football team before, but we told him the basics, printed up some cheat sheets for him, and let him go. He didn't have a bad draft at all. As a matter of fact, his only questionable pick was when he was working off the other guy's "special" handwritten list.
Before you take a guy, especially if you think that he shouldn't be available in a given round, do a quick Google search or use the tools available to you if your draft is online and make sure he's not hurt or suspended or pending litigation. You should know that Sidney Rice just had hip surgery, but you don't need to. It's on the Internet. Use it. Make sure you do that last little bit of research before you make your selection.
4. I always take my defense and my kicker in the last two rounds.
You may feel passionately about a particular kicker or a particular defense, but they fluctuate too much from year to year and, ultimately, there isn't a huge difference between the #1 defense and the #12 defense. There's less of a difference between the #1 kicker and the #12 kicker. And, more often than not, some kicker/defense comes out of nowhere each year and is available on waivers.
I don't like to commit to a higher pick than last and next-to-last for those reasons. I think I can find some "diamond in the rough" at RB or WR, or even possibly QB. In 2008, I drafted Kurt Warner in the 14th round. If I had drafted a defense instead, I would've missed out on Warner.
5. That means that the later rounds are for taking chances.
Trust the cheat sheet early, but if you've got a guy that you "can't believe is still out there" or, for some strange reason, think that this is Ike Redman's year, take them late. If there's a guy that you think is going to be the starter in Week 1, they just haven't announced yet, take him before you take your kicker and your defense.
If they pan out (like Warner for me), then great. If not, you'll know early on that you can cut them and not worry about it. Every year, some quarterback or receiver or running back emerges from obscurity but no one wants to take a chance on him in Week 1. You can cut your failed experiment and take that chance.
6. I tend to wait on tight ends.
Again, they're a position of lower importance, there's a huge dropoff after Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark, and there's a cluster of guys that are basically interchangeable. So, for this draft, snag the running back with the least warts early, a receiver, a quarterback, a running back out of the cluster, then fill in running backs and receivers until the seventh or eighth round and grab a tight end out of the cluster.
Sure, you'll be worried about your tight end all year, but that's better than worrying about your quarterback or second receiver.
6. So, fill out your roster, get your back-ups, take a couple of long shots, then your kicker and defense.
In that order.
For IDP leagues (ones where you draft individual defensive players), here's what I usually do...
- Draft your position guys, then draft priority defensive players, then draft back-ups, then fill in your roster.
- But, if it's between a great back-up and a great defensive player, choose the great back-up. I've found you can pluck guys off the waiver wire without too much of a fall off.
- Draft linebackers first and draft linebackers that get a lot of tackles. So, don't draft James Harrison or Terrell Suggs, because they'll get you 15 points one week, but .5 points the next. Brian Cushing (if he's not suspended), Patrick Willis, that middle linebacker for the Jets, even Ray Lewis. Look at the leaders for tackles last year and target the linebackers that were at the top of that list.
- If you can't get Troy don't draft a safety.
- Don't draft Revis or one of the big name cornerbacks. No one throws at those guys, so they never get any tackles. Target guys that can't cover and can't really catch... like the Steelers cornerbacks. They'll get a lot of passes defended and a lot of tackles. Also look at Cover 2 guys for the same reason, so the corners for Tampa, Chicago, Minnesota, and Indy.
- Don't draft defensive tackles. At all. For the d-line, draft a guy that had at least ten sacks last year. Anything that your d-line adds is gravy after you get as much as you can from the more consistent and productive positions.
You can have a great draft, but have a crappy season. You can have a crappy draft, but have a great season. The rules listed above are super simple and pretty straightforward. I'm not the first person to think of those rules. Sure, I've adjusted over the years, but it's not rocket science. It's also mostly luck, remember that.
In 2008, my one buddy had, by all accounts, a great draft. He was able to keep a solid running back and drafted Tom Brady and Ronnie Brown, so his backfield and quarterback were set. Until Brady blew out his knee eight minutes into the season and Brown blew his out in Week 8. But, my friend still made the playoffs because he managed his team well. He dropped some guys and picked up other key guys. He made some trades. He completely overhauled his team.
My first fantasy football draft was a complete disaster. I drafted Travis Henry in the first round and Kerry Collins in the third round (after I drafted a quarterback in the second round, can't remember who that was). I still finished 7-7 because I was willing to gut my team and start over.
Basically, that means your season isn't over when you finish drafting. It's not over when your star players go down with injuries. It's not over until... well, the season's over.
Don't be afraid to pull the trigger on that "breakout" free agent, even if you're sure that running back you took in the 13th round is this close to turning things around. Don't be afraid to kill your darlings. You're not actually dealing with people. You owe these players nothing.
You need to stay on top of which players to pick up and which players to drop. Again, I like ESPN. They have a ton of free content on their fantasy football site. Matthew Berry is good, but you usually have to scroll down past the first three paragraphs because he likes to talk about himself, his girlfriend, the time he met Catherine Zeta-Jones. But, he usually has good advice.
Eric Karabell is solid, but he's on the conservative side.
Tristan Cockroft... I have to say I've never read one of his articles. I'm sure he's a fine analyst, but I can't get past the name.
Which brings us to this: Try to have some fun. You're supposed to be having fun, DAMMIT.
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