Just as a disclaimer, I don't have any idea what they will actually do. I don't have any inside sources or scoops. All attempts e-mail and phone communications with Mike Tomlin and Kevin Colbert have only been met with restraining orders. However, I have observed a great deal about their draft tendencies over the years and I've done a great deal of general draft analysis, so I'm at least better at guessing than that dude in HR that smells like kitty litter.
Here's who I think they like/should take in the first round, in order:
- Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
- Kevin Zeitler, G, Wisconsin
- Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
- Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
Here's how the four players I mentioned break down...
Dontari Poe:
Poe is an interesting case because he was a popular pick for the Steelers by draft analysts in early mocks. Then he went and had a huge workout at the scouting combine in February (4.9 40, weighed in at 346 pounds and actually looked pretty slender, 44 reps on the bench press) and he subsequently skyrocketed up the boards in mock drafts.
Then the analysts did what most NFL teams had probably already done before overrating Poe: They looked at the game film. Poe's athleticism in shorts and a t-shirt didn't translate to the field. He was deemed soft at the point of attack and not the dominant force everyone was expecting from such a freakishly athletic player that was facing off against Conference USA competition. He had only 33 tackles last year.
Basically, Poe was deemed to be a workout warrior, not a great football player. He dropped out of the top 10 or 15 picks in mock drafts and, recently, has been picked by the Steelers all the way at #24.
So... why do I think he's their number one priority? Because guys that are as big and athletic as Poe don't grow on trees. Because his upside is worth a shot at 24th overall. Because the Steelers brought him in for a visit and think he's next Casey Hampton. All that -- especially the last one, given that the Steelers have shown a good track record of taking defensive tackles from Joe Green to Joel Steed to Big Snack -- make me think they'll be lucky to take him if he's still there.
With a number of teams in front of the Steelers that like athleticism and upside such as the Jaguars, Bills, Cardinals, and Jets, he probably won't be there. If he is, I say pull the trigger and pat yourselves on the back, Tomlin and Colbert.
Kevin Zeitler:
This is an unbelievably unsexy pick, but it also makes a lot of sense. The Steelers need a lot of help on the inside. Zeitler's the second-rated guard in the draft. He's great at trapping and pulling, which is something that the Steelers are known for liking to do. Wisconsin has a long-standing reputation for producing quality offensive linemen for the NFL, especially interior guys (some dude named Mike Webster went there). Every interior linemen the Steelers have drafted in the first round has been an unsexy pick (Alan Faneca, Kendall Simmons, Maurkice Pouncey) and they've all worked out.
It's a low risk pick and, with the talent on hand at guard, there's a good chance that Zeitler will contribute right away. He's smart, fast enough, and has the quick feet (4.61 in the short shuttle) to get out in front of the tailback on a counter or a sweep. He could stand to gain a couple pounds of muscle, but he's a good size at about 6-foot-4 and 314 pounds.
Nice, solid player that will be able to start and play well for the next ten years, just like Pouncey. I have no problem with that.
Peter Konz:
Everything I just said about Zeitler, but change his height to 6-foot-5. Seriously, he's even the same weight as Zeitler. Both are smart, stable guys with a low ceiling and a high floor. Both are ranked in the 30s overall, which make both of them reaches at 24th overall. But, hey, safe pick.
Konz is the number one rated center in the draft, but he projects better as a guard prospect. He doesn't have great straightline speed and, strange as it may sound with him being 314 pounds and all, he needs to bulk up. He only had 18 reps on the 225-pound bench press. That's 18 more than I can do, but it was the worst among center prospects. He shows great burst and strength on tape, but he's a little too spread out and not compactly built enough to take on big nose tackles at the line. Regardless of whether he plays guard or center, he's going to need to find his way to the weight room and I think the Steelers have the coaches in place to encourage him in that direction.
Zeitler is really 2a and Konz is 2b, mainly because guard is Zeitler's natural position. Again, it's a safe pick and I would be comfortable with that.
And, just to throw this out there, I don't see them taking an offensive tackle in the first round. They haven't taken a tackle in the first round since 1996 (Jamain Stephens). The reason for that, I think, is that the best tackle available when they pick is usually the fifth or sixth rated guy in that draft. For their money in the first round, they'd rather take the first or second rated guy at a position, even if tackle is a greater need. It's hard to argue with the results, since they've been able to grab a bunch of dudes from Florida and plug them in and win games for the past 20 years or so.
Dont'a Hightower:
His name is pronounced "Dont-ay" which is something that I learned only recently. See, there's a "Dont" and then there's an apostrophe, and then there's an "A" which is how things break down. Someone on a local news station pronounced it "Donta" and you can now look down your noses at that person. That's the kind of inside scoop you get at Steelers N At.
As far as Hightowers prospects, he's the guy that 95% of all mock drafts on the Internet have the Steelers selecting. I can definitely see it. Hightower played on the inside in the 3-4 defense at Alabama. He's a big kid (6-foot-2, 265 pounds) that can take on blockers and has great instincts. He's fast for such a big dude (4.68 in the 40) and he seems to cover more ground than his speed would indicate because he's so good at diagnosing plays before they develop. The only red flag is his injury history. He tore his ACL and was redshirted for his freshman year because of it. You know who else had knee issues in college? Danny Vulva. You know who else? Hines Ward, who was incredibly durable over his 14 year career and ran around and hit people a lot more than Vulva. So, that's a crapshoot.
If you're saying, "This guy sounds awesome! Why's he the fourth guy on your list?" Well, to be clear, I don't have any problems with the Steelers drafting any of these guys. This list is ordered by preference. I prefer Poe over everyone else because they love him and he has the chance to be a real impact player. A dynamic nose tackle has a better chance of making a huge contribution to this defense than a dynamic inside linebacker.
As much as I love James Farrior, there was only so much that a player at his position could do to in the scheme the Steelers run. A guy playing at a high level makes a big impact on the defense as a whole, regardless of scheme, as Farrior proved in 2004 and 2008. His other years with the Steelers, he was a solid player; a cog in the machinery that tallied up tackles. In 2011, he struggled and was relegated to part-time duty, and the defense didn't miss a beat with Stevenson Sylvester and Larry Foote in there. I think they'll be just fine with another cog, either a free agent or a guy like Sylvester. Hightower can play Farrior's position and that's about it. He can't play Lawrence Timmons' position and he can't be moved to the outside. A first round pick seems like a big investment for another cog.
Poe has more upside, Zeitler or Konz can provide some stability to an offensive line that was ripped apart last season due to injuries. On top of all that, Hightower is the second-rated inside linebacker in the draft. With all the 3-4 teams ahead of the Steelers, I'm not convinced he's going to be sitting there at 24.
Will they go safe? Will they go upside? Will they go Hightower? Will any of these guys be available when they pick? I have no idea. That's what makes this time of year so interesting. My best guess?
With the 24th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select:
Dontari Poe, Defensive Tackle, University of Memphis
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