Steelers Draft Primer

I'm going to break things down a little differently this year.  In previous years, I've just thrown out one massive post and hoped for the best.

This year, I'm going to try to approach it like real NFL teams do, except that I don't have unlimited resources, a staff, or really anything to base my picks on other than what I've read on the Internet.  The draft is broken up into three days, with Round 1 on Thursday, Rounds 2 and 3 on Friday, and Rounds 4-7 on Saturday.  At this point, teams have a good idea of who they're targeting in general and a rough idea of where those players might be available in each round.  But, really, they only have a slightly better feel for what's going to actually happen after Kaiser Goodell steps up to the podium and announces the Andrew Luck pick than the rest of us.  Trades happen, players are taken higher or lower than expected, and need sometimes trumps best athlete available.

The Steelers have a lot more holes to fill this year than in previous drafts and are heavier on needs.  But, they've tended to pick the best player available throughout the Kevin Colbert era and I think that will continue in this year's draft.

Having said that, here's what they need (in no particular order):

1. At least two offensive linemen, since they've struggled with injuries and could use help at every offensive line position but center
2. Preferably two defensive linemen, but definitely a nose tackle
3. At least one linebacker, with a preference towards inside linebacker (replacement for James Farrior)
4. A running back
5. At least one cornerback
6. A safety

That's eight guys if you assume the minimums and the Steelers have ten picks.  I'd be fine if they spent the two extra picks on offensive linemen because they need the bodies for camp.  But, with Casey Hampton turning 35 in September and losing Aaron Smith and Chris Hoke from the defensive line, I wouldn't be opposed to a 3-3 split on offensive and defensive linemen.

Now that we have an idea of what they're looking for, we can talk strategy.  However, I'm not ready to do that yet, so I'm going to post something tomorrow on what their strategy should be in Round 1 and who I think they should/will take.  Based on what they do in Round 1, I'll talk about what they should/will do in Rounds 2 and 3, then rinse, repeat for Saturday.

It'll be just like being in the Steelers war room.  Except that Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin won't be there.  And you're just sitting there in your underwear and an old Dan Kreider jersey, trying to explain to your wife why you feel the need to yell at Bernie Kosar, even though he's just announcing the Browns third round pick.

All levity aside, this is an extremely important draft for the Steelers.  Not only do they need to re-stock the cabinets with a number of players on offense and defense on the wrong side of 30, they're tight up against the cap and had to make a number of cuts, so they need a lot of cheap labor to fill roster holes.  Their recent draft history hasn't been great, particularly the 2008 class.  Only two players are on the roster out of seven picks.  That would be Rashard Mendenhall, who will begin the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list and hasn't exactly been a superstar and Ryan Mundy, who has filled in well when needed, but is still a backup.  As a point of reference, there are still two players each from the 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005 draft classes that will likely be on the active roster when the 2012 season kicks off.  There are also only two players left from the 2007 draft class, but those two guys are Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley.

They've had a more consistent track record since 2009.  The 2009 draft brought Ziggy Hood, Keenan Lewis,  David Johnson, and Mike Wallace.  In 2010, there was Maurkice Pouncey, Jason Worilds, Stevenson Sylvester, Jonathan Dwyer, and Antonio Brown.  In 2011, Cameron Heyward has real potential, Marcus Gilbert, Cortez Allen, and Curtis Brown.

There's some quality in there for sure, but mostly just a large quantity of contributors.  In this year's draft, they need quantity and quality.  It could be that the guys that are drafted this year make a huge contribution simply because there are no other options.  But, it could also be that the guys drafted in previous years didn't get a chance because there were veterans in front of them, keeping them from contributing.  It will be an interesting test of Kevin Colbert's and Mike Tomlin's assessment of talent.

The good news is that the 2012 draft class is a deep one, especially along the offensive and defensive lines, with quality and value available into the fourth round.  The bad news is that there's no "sure thing" running backs outside of Trent Richardson and the cornerback class is also top-heavy, without a lot of talent after the second round.  That means that it's highly unlikely that the Steelers will be able to find starters or high quality contributors at all positions where they have holes.

The priorities, I think, are along the offensive and defensive lines, at cornerback, and at running back.  If the first four rounds are some combination of those positions, I will be satisfied.  If they aren't, I will have to hope that the Steeler brain trust knows what they're doing.  History has shown that they generally do, but recent history has shown that they miss more than they hit.  I guess we'll see.