Get Sanchez: Jets at Steelers Preview

I have to admit that I only saw five plays of last week's game against the Broncos.  Interestingly enough, I was in Colorado at my brother in-law's wedding.

I got to look at this instead of Peyton Manning, which I think is a fair trade.

As a result, I wasn't able to witness them falling apart in the fourth quarter, though I somehow caught Demarius Thomas' 70 yard catch-and-run for a touchdown, which I took as a bad sign.  I've seen highlights and read some analysis and I have to say I'm not sure why a lot of people are freaking out.  I mean, I know why they're freaking out, it's because the Steelers lost and lost by meltdown and that's not something that people are accustomed to seeing from the Steelers.  But... I don't think the freakouts are warranted.

I tried to get everyone to calm down after the hated Ravens curb-stomped the Steelers in the opener last year.  My point was that it was only one game and the NFL would only give them one loss, no matter how poorly they played.  From what I can tell, the offense and defense performed pretty well for the first three quarters and kept Manning mostly in check.  They didn't get destroyed for four quarters like they did in Baltimore to open the 2011 season.  As you may recall, the Steelers were 12-4 last year.  They don't get to face the craptastic line-up of inept quarterbacks this season that they benefited from last season, but I think it is not yet time to panic and that there's a very solid chance they finish 10-6 or 9-7.


But, this is a Preview post for the Jets game, so I'm going to move on.

Three big items in this game:

1. Word came out today that Darelle Revis is out for this game.  That's huge.  If Revis Island is vacant, then Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders will all have better match-ups.
2. They get Ryan Clark back.  Even though Troy and James Harrison are probably out, I think adding Clark back in is a net win.  Harrison didn't play last week, either, and Troy freelanced a little too much (from what I heard and it also looked like he took himself out of the play on the Thomas touchdown).  With Clark back in there and Ryan Mundy playing things by the book, they should be fine in the secondary.  It'd just be nice if they could generate some kind of pass rush and force Sanchez into making some mistakes.
3. Read this this morning: "Pittsburgh hasn't started a season 0-2 since 2002, though that didn't stop the Steelers from finishing 10-5-1 and making it to the divisional round of the playoffs. The Steelers haven't even lost consecutive games since a five-game slide in 2009."  That's some serious consistency right there.  I have a feeling the veteran guys on this team will be extra focused on Sunday to make sure that continues.  With two teams as close talent-wise as the Jets and Steelers, that little bit of extra focus is going to help a lot.

I think the Jets offense isn't as good as the Bills made them look in Week 1 and the Steelers defense isn't as bad as Manning made them look, either.  Manning is a better quarterback than Sanchez and he also has more talent around him at the skill positions.  The Jets are almost as thin at tackle as the Steelers and I have a feeling that LaMarr Woodley "great performance against a bad player" games against Austin Howard.  Howard plays right tackle for the Jets.  I had to look it up, too.  It's OK, you shouldn't feel bad.  Howard's not that good, that's why you don't know who he is.

I don't think New York has enough push in the running game to bully a surprisingly deep Steeler defensive line.  Shonn Greene doesn't scare me and neither do any of the guys up front for the Jets.

On offense, I have to say the Jets defense doesn't scare me as much without Revis.  Without him to shut down half the field in the passing game, the opposing team's offense has a lot more options and a lot more ways to attack a pretty average group of re-tread defenders and roleplayers.  I'd also like to add that Bryant Thomas is out for this game, which decreases the odds that Ben Roethlisberger will get sacked 15 times.  My cousin, Dustin Keller, is also scratched for this game, which will hurt a Jets offense that already doesn't have a lot of weapons.  Get well soon, Dustin.  Auntie Claudette sends her love.

I think the Steelers will have trouble running the ball, because they always have trouble running the ball.  It's kind of their thing, but at least they're persistent.  There should be some real opportunities for Roethlisberger, provided he's able to stay upright.  And, provided New York decides not to blitz too much.  According to ESPN blogger Jamison Hensley, Roethlisberger was 6 for 14 with 60 yards and an interception when the Broncos blitzed.  Hensley also points out that the Jets have blitzed on 43.4 percent of all snaps since 2009, most in league.  So, yeah, I think they're going to blitz.  It will just come down to how well the Steelers can pick those blitzes up and how badly the Jets defense breaks down on the back end without Revis if the Steelers do manage to pick up the blitz.

I know I've talked a lot about how both offenses are going to struggle and how they're going to have to do a lot of things right to score points, but I still feel like this is going to be a pretty high scoring game (take the over).  I think that there will be enough breakdowns in coverage when the defenses blitz a little too hard and enough turnovers that give the offense a short field that this won't be a 13-10 slugfest.  Plus which, those kinds of games are usually reserved for November or December.

I think the Steelers win, in a push (line is currently Steelers by 5), but take the over.  Also, these happen to be the numbers in my football pool this week, so I hope I'm predicting the right score.

Prediction:
Steelers 28, Jets 23