First of all, the Oakland Raiders do not suck. They sucked in 2006 and 2009 and the Steelers let them hang around in those games and ended up losing to a couple of the crappiest NFL teams of this century. They were actually decent in 2010, finished with an 8-8 record, and came into Heinz Field that season with a respectable 5-4 record, but then the Steelers completely destroyed them 35-3. So, now that they're actually a decent team this year -- not really a good team, but a decent team that has some talent -- does that mean the Steelers roll, or does that mean that they come into Oakland and lay a giant turd where the pitcher's mound should be? I have no idea.
Second of all, Ben Roethlisberger and the Bay Area do not get along. He threw four picks in that 2006 debacle, two of which were returned for touchdowns. We all know how things worked out for him in San Francisco on Monday night last December (granted, he was playing on one leg).
Thirdly, I can't tell yet if this Steelers team is a solid squad that knows how to get the job done or if they're a week-to-week team that is inconsistent. My guess is that they're a week-to-week team, because of three factors.
- The defense doesn't get pressure on the quarterback and they don't force turnovers. That means that they have to hope that the opposing team's quarterback implodes every week like Mark Sanchez did last week. They got lucky with the horrible quarterbacks they played last season, but you can't count on bad quarterback play every week. You need to take the ball away and you need to kill drives with sacks and explosive plays.
- They don't run the ball well, but they're committed to the run. That means a lot of 3rd and 8 and 3rd and 9 situations for Roethlisberger. They've been great on third down thus far this season -- converting 19 of 34 through two games and 8 of 15 last week against the Jets -- but they're not going to be able to keep that pace up. That ten minute drive in the fourth quarter against New York last week was awesome, but it's a three-and-out or a drive that stalls at midfield if Roethlisberger doesn't convert some key third downs.
- Too many old guys and too many fragile guys on the offensive line. I have a feeling that they're going to use at least 15 more combinations on the offensive line this season. I have a feeling that the injuries to James Harrison and Troy are going to linger. I have a feeling that they're not done putting guys on injured reserve. The "next man up" played well in Week 2, but I don't think we can count on that kind of consistent performance from the back-ups all season.
And, hey, there's nothing wrong with winning, but I'm just saying it's way too early to start thinking Super Bowl, or even playoffs. At least that's how I feel this week.
That's why this is an important game, even though it's supposed to be a snooze fest that the Steelers should win easy.
Above all else, they need to run the ball effectively. They're not going to blow the Raiders off the ball -- I don't think that they're good enough up front to blow anyone off the ball, to say nothing of the fact that Oakland's front seven is pretty tough and athletic -- but they need to do better than the 2.6 yards per carry they're currently averaging. One thing they can do to help that average right off the bat is to take toss plays and sweep plays out of the playbook until Rashard Mendenhall come back. Issac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are solid backs, but they don't have to quickness you need to get to the edge. Todd Haley needs to realize that and come to terms with the fact that this offense can't afford to lose eight yards a play on those runs simply because they're in the playbook.
If they can average four yards a carry, then they'll get themselves into third-and-managable situations. Better yet, they may be able to avoid third down altogether, which would be a huge step up. The fact that they've run 133 plays on offense and 34 of those of have been on third down is a bad sign. By contrast, they opponents have run 106 plays and have faced 21 third downs. Slow, plodding drives are good for killing the clock and playing keep-away, but they're really difficult to sustain and it tends to put the defense in a bad spot if they're expecting to get a breather and the offense goes three-and-out.
I think they should be able to cruise if they run the ball effectively and I think they will be able to run it effectively. The Oakland secondary is banged up, which should help the third down conversion rate. Carson Palmer is still a serviceable quarterback and he has no love for the Steelers, but he's no longer a guy that keeps defensive coordinators up at night. Their receivers are big and fast, but they have trouble separating from defenders. If Ike Taylor and Keenan Lewis play tight and physical like they did against the Jets receivers in last week's game, they should be fine.
Darren McFadden scares the hell out of me. But, he only has 54 yards on 26 carries this season and has been far more dangerous as a receiver. I'm not saying he won't break out in this game and basically take it over, but I don't think it's very likely. I think Lawrence Timmons can handle him in coverage coming out of the backfield and I think the rest of the front seven will be able to stay in their gaps and keep him bottled up in the running game.
If they can run effectively, contain McFadden, and Roethlisberger doesn't throw four interceptions, this is a very winnable game. And I think they will win.
Prediction:
Steelers 24, Raiders 10
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