Arena Football Update

Now that the unrestricted free agency period is about to begin in the Arena League, I wanted to take a few moments to give an update on where things stand.  In the AFL, free agency proceeds in two periods.  First, there is the exclusive period, where the teams are only allowed to talk to players that were on their roster the previous season.  This period was set to expire on Monday, however, the weather issues presented by Hurricane Sandy extended this period until the 31st.

With three teams folding (Georgia, KC and Milwaukee), things are going to be interesting.  This is both good and bad.  Bad because this is all that casual fans will hear about this league.  It just makes it seem more and more like the league is in trouble.  I beg to differ.  The league needs to reign it in a bit for a little while.  This will condense the talent pool into the remaining teams, only making them better.  This will also condense the fanbase in so (in theory) each team can get more viewers.  It can go either way, but I'm a blind optimist in this area.

Now, there hasn't been a lot of news out of the Power camp during this period, which is both unsurprising and a little disturbing.  Now that teams are allowed to sign players for more than one season, players are probably thinking a lot harder about where they want to be and giving a lot more thought to seeing where offers will be made - meaning that they'll wait for the unrestricted period to begin.  So far, we've re-signed Chris "Gingabread" LeFlore and Mike "the Joystick" Washington.  This is great news, but it's still a long way from a  complete team.

Skuttlebutt said that the Power was going to release a "big" statement Monday, but that didn't happen, probably because of the weather.  The options are limited to what this could have been, as they can only technically talk to people from their 2012 roster.  Now, I suppose they could have skirted that and been ready to announce someone as soon as open free agency began...but I don't think so.  The only player aside from the above that would have been that exciting is Superman.  (Though, I suppose, they could still be over-estimating his popularity and continued to beat the Bill Stull drum.)  So, it's not a done deal, but it's my gut feeling.

So, what can we expect in the coming phase?  More specifically, what should the Power do?

Well, assuming we have Superman in addition to Joystick, we've got a start on the receiver corps.   That's it for sure.  Frankly, I think that our receivers will take care of themselves.  LeFlore was the star on defense, and we know he's back.  They say defense is underrated in this league - and, to a degree, this is true.  However, you look at teams like the Rattlers last year that had great offense and defense that stopped their opponents in their tracks.  It's important.  However, it's useless without offense.  You need to score fast and often in this league, and the Power didn't.  We had great D, but our offense couldn't get it done.

So, having said that, you're going to start screaming at me when I say that our top three concerns should be - in this order - Offensive line, Kicker, QB.  "What the hell are you talking about, Weidman?" you might be yelling.  "You said we needed offense!  Nick Davila and Tommy Grady are free agents!  At very least, how about some more receivers and some running backs?"  Calm down, hypothetical reader.  'Tis madness, but there is method to it.

I'd love to see guys like Christian Wise and Tyree Young back, but they're not crucial.  We've got some stars locked up, and frankly, the Power hasn't had a lot of trouble getting quality people out front - we've had problems getting the ball to them.  ("So, yeah!  A quarterback!"  Quiet, you.)  We've been through a lot of QBs over the last two seasons.  Why is that?  Well, aside from Rowley, we've lost every single one of them to injuries at one point or another.  This goes back to the O line.  They have not been able to offer the protection needed.  I firmly believe that most of the QBs we've had could have done a lot better if they had more time to think in the pocket, or at very least, didn't have that voice in their head screaming "OH MY FRICKIN' GOD, THEY'RE GOING TO MURDER ME!"  Case and point is Bernard Morris.  He goes to Jacksonville and makes the playoffs.

Connected to this is how the league works.  Every team pays the same amount for their players (I'm pretending that non-pay extras don't happen.)  This means that the players have to look at intangibles - especially quarterbacks.  They're going to want to go somewhere with a lot of exposure, a great fanbase and some place that won't end their career early.  Pittsburgh has none of those things right now.  Sure, the fans that show up are into it, but the following hasn't gained the traction of old-market teams like Orlando, Arizona and San Jose.  Because of this, they won't get a lot of exposure.  This leaves protection.  If we can shore up that line, we can either get someone of higher caliber, or at least let our guy play up to his ability.

As for free agents like Davila and Grady, don't get your hopes up.  Grady went to U of U and went far with the Blaze last year.  I don't see him leaving there any time soon, unless it's to the NFL.  Likewise, Davila has two Arena Bowls, one ring and his family in Arizona.  The fact that he isn't signed is probably just a matter of paperwork.

So....yeah.  That's why I think focusing on a QB is a waste of time.   Why did I pick kicker next?  I've hammered this point in over and over again - the kicker is key in the AFL.  How many games have the Power lost based on shoddy kicking?  When you score 6-7 TDs a game, a lousy kicker can swing that final score by 6-7 points.  Along with the QB carousel last year, we had  kicker hot-potato.  That needs to stop (Though, I'd like to bring the Vampire back on defense and special teams for his tackling ability.)

After all this is done, we can think about the QB situation...but only if there aren't any good receivers/backs out there.  If we're "stuck" with Hines or Stull, I can deal with it.  Like I said - they had more to offer, they just kept getting steamrollered.


Elsewhere in the league

• Now that Clint Dozel in the coach's seat, he seems to be trying to meld his dreams into reality.  When he came up east from the Vigilantes, he brought as many of his favorites with him as he could  From there, he molded the D in his image.  He and Dirty Dan are now signed for two years, so I think he's going to hold on tight to as much of his creation as he can and see if he can get that ring this year.
• Bernard Morris is returning to the Sharks.
• Kurt Rocco looks to take the Voodoo even farther this coming season.  New Orleans is one of the teams with the most activity during this period.  They seem to know what they want.
• Despite some serious ups and downs,  Steve Wasil is returning to Tampa Bay
• The Talons are getting both Fred Shaw and Robert Quiroga back

There are a lot of big names unaccounted for - Davila, Grady, Ship, Brackins, Morgan, Jones, Armstrong, etc - so once the floodgates are thrown open, anything can happen.  Stay tuned!

Location Location Location: Redskins at Steelers Preview

As the old saying goes, the most important things in real estate are: Location, Location, and Location.

For Sunday's game, the three most important things will be:

1. Stop RGIII.
2. Stop RGIII.
3. Stop RGIII.

If you've been paying attention to the NFL this season, you've heard that this Robert Griffin III person is a pretty good football player.  You may have seen this or possibly this (the awesome starts at about 11 seconds in).  He's the most gifted athlete at the position since Michael Vick, but he's far more accurate (70.4 completion percentage, leads the NFL) and makes better decisions (101.8 quarterback rating, third in the NFL) than Vick did as a rookie, or possibly ever.  He's got plenty of arm strength, has more rushing yards than LeSean McCoy, and more rushing touchdowns than everyone but Arian Foster.

Washington has also done something that no one ever really fully committed to with Vick: Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has tailored the offense to take full advantage of Griffin's talents and maximize the offense's effectiveness.  This commitment goes beyond calling a couple rollouts or quarterback draws or read-option plays a game.  Shanahan also has RGIII work out of the shotgun most of the time and calls a bunch of quick slants and screens to take advantage of his quick release and live arm.  This has propped up his completion percentage a bit, but it has also helped his confidence.  The man can create an explosive play out of nothing, with either his legs or his arm.

If they can stop him -- something close to the 10-15-91-0-0 stat line he had in the Falcons game before he left with a concussion -- then the Steelers will roll.  If they can contain him like the Giants did -- 20-28-258-2-1 -- and keep him from running wild like he did against the Vikings, they can win this game.

Actually, a stat line like the one he had against New York is probably the best result they can hope for.  They need to be focused on stopping Griffin, but not so focused and tracking him down and punishing him that they ignore all the other playmakers on Washington's offense.  Rookie running back Alfred Morris is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and has scored five touchdowns.  Some of that is as a result of defenses focusing so much on stopping Griffin that Morris sneaks past them, but he's also a very talented player.  If the Steeler defenders key on Griffin too much, Morris is dangerous enough to beat them.  If they spend too much time and energy trying to anticipate when he's going to scramble and close in on him, that opens up opportunities for the Redskins in the passing game.

Dick LeBeau has a strong track record against rookie quarterbacks and he usually defends them mostly with zone schemes that are designed to defend short, quick passes and spread out as needed if the quarterback is asked to throw downfield (usually late in the game when the Steelers have a lead).  Washington's offense uses mostly short passes by design, which plays right into LeBeau's hand.  The key is going to be avoiding penalties and sure tackling, which are two areas where the Steelers have struggled this season.  They need to be aggressive, Timmons and probably Ryan Clark need to spy Griffin and keep their eyes on him at all times, but they also need to be disciplined.  They need to keep the play in front of them, not get flat footed by over anticipating the play, and make sure they wrap up the guy with the ball and bring him down as soon as he catches it.  The Redskins have one of the best Yards After Catch averages in the NFL and they have plenty of dangerous players not named RGIII.

If they can do all that -- and I think they can -- then they can hold Washington to 24 points, which puts the odds heavily in their favor.  Success on defense Sunday is not going to come down to being faster or younger or more athletic than RGIII.  That's impossible.  It's going to come down to trusting the system, executing the system, and not making any dumb mistakes.

The good news for the Steeler offense is that the Redskins defense sucks something awful.  They're 28th in points allowed (28.6 per game) and have the league's worst pass defense (allowing 328.4 yards per game).  They've also allowed a ton of explosive plays: 29 completions of 20 yards or more and seven completions of 40 yards or more.  It's not just that they give up lots of yards and points, so the Steelers should be able to gain lots of yards and score lots of points, it's that they're vulnerable in the areas where Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Mike Wallace excel.  They haven't been lighting things up in the deep passing game thus far this season, but they have the talent and the history together that they should be able to cash in (big time) when the opportunities present themselves.

Washington actually has a decent run defense, but I don't think the Steelers are going to bother running the ball much... except if Pittsburgh gets smacked with some horrific weather and Heinz Field is the consistency of wet cotton candy by halftime.  If it's just cold and a little rainy, the Steelers have the advantage.  If it's cotton candy-like on the field, then the Redskins hold the edge because they run the ball well and don't necessarily need to throw the ball to score points.  That'll make for an ugly game and I just have a feeling the Steelers have just about used up all their ugly karma at home.  Maybe not, but I don't think they pull out another squeaker.

What they need to do is jump out on the Redskins early, get them in a hole and hopefully they'll make some mistakes, keep their foot on Washington's throat, and hold on in the fourth quarter as RGIII attempts a furious comeback.

Not only am I attempting the weather won't be completely horrible, I'm also predicting that all that stuff is going to happen.

Sooooooo... maybe take this prediction with a grain of salt.

Prediction:
Steelers 34, Redskins 24

Pick Em Week 8

(For Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

Hey, hey - we got back on the right side of the suck/don't suck line this past weekend, with all of us getting 11 correct plus the lock.  Now, all of our Crazy Ivans de-Ivanafied each other, so the tally still stands with Forty one point ahead.

This week, Keller's the only one with some Ivan picks, and strangely, those were the safe picks, so anything can happen.  He might storm ahead, or drop behind.  There are a few games that I am concerned about.  Green Bay is favored by so much that they could be the upset of the week.  I doubt it, but it could happen.  Also, even though we all picked them, I'm not super convinced that the Steelers are going to win.  They have momentum, they're home, and they do well against rookie QBs...however, people treat him like the Second Coming with dreads, and the Steelers have been choking something fierce this season.  Take that pick with caution.

So, let's do this thing and start to enter the half-way point of the season already!
Lock of the Week (Keller): Green Bay Packers over Jacksonville Jaguars (take the Packers, even though they're 13 point favorites): 38-10. 

When I heard that Blaine Gabbert and Maurice Jones-Drew were both hurt and had to play the Packers at Green Bay, I knew I had my Lock of the Week.  New England playing in Old England is tempting, but not as sure a thing as a crappy offense facing a rejuvenated defense on the road.  Also, Aaron Rodgers has been looking fairly decent the last couple weeks.  I think the Packers might be onto something with that guy.  Actually, I thought the line was going to be 17 on this one before the lines for Week 8 were released.  I was prepared to take the Packers at 17 and you should be prepared to take them at 13.  Go Pack, Go!  (Rodgers is also on two of my fantasy teams...)

Lock of the Week (Weidman): Green Bay Packers over Jacksonville Jaguars (Despite what Keller says above, at the time of this writing, they're 15 point favs): 42-10. 

Wow, sometimes the locks lock themselves. Jacksonville is more beat up than a (insert probably offensive simile here), GB is looking strong and they're at home.  They're favored by more points than several teams scored last week and one of them won their game.  Basically, Rodgers should start warming up.

Lock of the Week: Green Bay over Jacksonville (Forty): (As much as I want to say the score will be 1 trillion to zero, I'll go conservative and peg it 42-9. Take Packers with the points and they can probably get the over by themselves, but Jacksonville won't be giving them any help there so lets say under.)

This might be the scariest thing you can watch the Sunday before Halloween. Aaron Rodgers is the Freddy Kreuger in the nightmares of all Jacksonville players. If they didn't go into this game as huge underdogs to start, the fact that they will be without Maurice Jones-Drew and possibly Blaine Gabbert drops their chances of winning from 5 percent to nothing. That's right, I said there is absolutely no chance the Jaguars win this game. Even if the Packers all go down in a plane crash, they could activate Don Majkowski and the rest of the Tecmo Super Bowl roster and still crush them. A lot of experts are saying the Packers are finally finding their swagger, but I don't think they ever lost it. They had to cope with injuries and deal with some very good defenses that knew how to play them. The Jags defense is ranked 28th overall in the NFL. The offense is ranked dead last and they're going to be missing their two best players. I'd watch this game, but I'm not a sadist.

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Bengals

Given the fact that it was a must-win game, the hated Ravens look shakier than ever, and starting the season 2-4 would've made it extremely difficult for the Steelers to claw their way into the playoffs, I'm very pleased that they won.

Trouble is, there was more bad news in this game than good.

Good news first:

1. Shout out to Ike Taylor!  Tremendous job by Ike.  I will take one catch for eight yards -- even if it was a touchdown -- from AJ Green any day.  Let's hope he keeps it up.  More to the point, let's hope he does somewhere close to as good when these teams play each other again in Week 16.
2. They proved they can win on the road.
3. They proved they protect a fourth quarter lead on the road.
4. They proved they can beat a weak team on the road.  Not entirely sure the Bengals are a weak team just yet, but they looked weak on Sunday night.
5. The offensive line was as solid as I've seen it all season, especially the three guys on the inside (Foster, Colon, and Legursky).  Mike Adams did quite well for his first start and he didn't get as much help from Heath Miller as Chris Collinsworth would have you believe.  Cincinnati has a talented front four and my biggest fear coming into this game was that they'd be able to blow by and out-muscle the replacement guys -- and the regular guys for that matter -- and they'd take over the game.  The starting five on Sunday night didn't allow that to happen and actually turned in a dominant performance.  When you're able to run five or six times in a row and still gain chunks of yardage, the guys up front are doing their jobs.  I don't care if the Bengals came in with a run defense that was ranked in the 20s.  So did the Raiders and Titans, but the Steelers didn't get the kind of push in those games that they got Sunday night.
6. Productive and effective on third down once again, regardless of distance.  The Steelers have converted 53.8 percent of third downs so far this season.  That's a great number for one games, no less through six games.
7. Heath Miller is finally putting up big numbers because the Steelers are finally making a specific effort to get the ball in his hands, and at all depth levels in the route tree.  Good times.  Now, if only they had been feeding him the ball like this since 2005.

Bad News:

1. The penalties, dear God, the penalties.  Special teams was the big loser this week, but it seems like a different unit is wearing the dunce cap every week.  The good news is that special teams penalties are the easiest to fix because the guys that play in the kicking game are the easiest to replace.  Tomlin mentioned in his press conference today that the best way to cut down on dumb penalties is to have the guys that are committing them watching from the sidelines.
2. From the Obvious Department, but I still feel it needs to be said: I would prefer that they do a better job on first down and second down so that they never need to see third down.  It's great that they have the confidence and talent to convert all those third down chances, but it's also not really sustainable.  If they can keep this up, it gives them a big advantage, but I'm thinking they can't.  If they can't keep up that 53.8 percent conversion rate, then they'll be in deep trouble the rest of the season.
3. Zero sacks, two quarterback hits.  They need to get more pressure.  I'm hoping that will come once Woodley and Harrison get healthier, but I'm really not sure.  I think the key will be more blitzes from Timmons and the safeties, but they'd need to get Troy back for that, too.
4. One interception in the end zone, one fumble inside their own 10.  They were able to overcome two pretty costly turnovers, but a better team would've made them pay for those mistakes.
5. Tomlin was the best coach on the field Sunday night, but that's not saying much.  If it hadn't been for the two pointless challenge flags Marvin Lewis threw, Tomlin would've made the dumbest decision of the night.  That would be going for two after that first touchdown.  Kick early, go for two late.  Those are the rules and they are well-tested and have been proven.  They're way better than the chart.  Throw the chart away and stick with that: Kick early, go for it late.  Some say it was a ballsy call, but that's primarily because it worked.  If it hadn't worked, the Bengals would've been down by only six points and could've won it with a touchdown.

There are more items listed under "good news" than there are for "bad news" but the Bad News items are far more cause for worry than the Good News items are cause for celebration.

They had their backs against the wall, they came back on the road, they protected their lead on the the road, and the proved their veteran savvy mettle grit Steelers football (trying to think how many cliche noise words I can stuff into the end of the sentence).

They're also old, the young guys they have a mistake-prone, their receivers (and defenders) drop too many passes, which is another sign of lack of concentration and focus, and they've muddled their way through a pretty easy first six games of the season with a .500 record.  They're lucky that the rest of the division -- and really the rest of the conference -- is just as uneven and disjointed as they are.  That doesn't make them a Super Bowl contender, but it does mean that they can continue to run in place and probably still make the playoffs. 

They just need to make the right plays at the right time, most of the time.  If they want to do better than another one-and-done playoff finish, they need to do better, focus more, and get to the quarterback.

Bullseye on Ike: Steelers at Bengals Preview

With only five games on the books, I had to say that any game this early in the season is a must-win game.  However, I'm now going to say that Sunday night's match-up against the Bengals is a must-win game.  Allow me to explain...

On Saturday, I was at Primanti's and someone asked the bar if the Steelers were going to go to the playoffs this season.  I immediately said that there was no way, but everyone else that jumped into the debate had two excellent points:

1. The AFC is thoroughly mediocre this year and there aren't many teams that are good enough to fill all six spots.
2. The Steelers have Ben Roethlisberger and a great quarterback gives you a better-than-average chance to win 9 or 10 games.

I knew #2 already, but I hadn't thought about #1 that much.  If you think about it, the Patriots will most likely win the AFC East and no one else in that division is good enough to finish above .500.  Same with the South, but substitute the Texans for the Patriots.  In the West, the Chiefs and Raiders aren't winning more than six games each, so that leaves you with the division winner (Broncos or Chargers) and whoever doesn't win the division.  As much as it pains me to say it, the hated Ravens are in the driver's seat in the North, even with all the issues they're having on defense.  The Browns are more competitive, but they're not going to the playoffs.  That leaves the Steelers and Bengals.

In order to make the playoffs, the Steelers need to sweep the Bengals (for tiebreaker purposes if nothing else), which is why they must win on Sunday in order to stay in the postseason hunt.

This is a game that they can win and probably should win, but the same could be said of the games against the Titans and Raiders.

Cincinnati has some talent on offense, but the only player that has game-changing ability is AJ Green.  Last season, Ike Taylor faced Green twice and held him pretty much in check, to the tune of seven catches for 123 yards and two touchdowns.  Given Green's production thus far this season and how god-awful Taylor has been since the start of the Denver playoff game last season, Green might post numbers like that on Sunday alone.  If he does, the Steelers won't be able to do enough to win. 

They can't get involved in shootouts and they can't have a situation where they're trying to protect a small lead late in the game.  If Green explodes, he'll probably blow up at the wrong time and the Steelers will move to 0-4 on the road.  Taylor needs to play somewhere close to his 2011 level for the team to win.  He could get help over the top, they could put Keenan Lewis or Cortez Allen on him in certain situations, but ultimately Taylor is the guy that needs to step up, put his failures from January onward behind him, and lock down on Green.  The Bengals know that Ike has been burned more times than a near-sighted crackhead this season, so they're going to go after him early and he needs to step up early and often.

Andy Dalton is the best quarterback Cincinnati has had since 2006, but that's not saying too much.  He's regressed a little since last season, defenses have enough films to adequately game plan for him, and the coaching staff is asking him to do more, all of which have combined to make him less effective and dangerous this season.  I wouldn't call it a "sophomore slump" it's just a combination of factors that has turned him into just a good quarterback.  He's not going to put the team on his shoulders and carry them to victory.

Jermaine Gresham and The Law Firm are fine players, but they aren't the guys that are going to make or break this game.

They've got some talent in the front four, but the back seven is kind of shaky.  When they've won games this season, they've done so because they put a bunch of points up on the board and their opponents weren't able to keep pace.  When the Steelers have lost, they've done so because they allowed their opponents to put a bunch of points on the board and couldn't keep pace.

Rashard Mendenhall and Issac Redman are out -- either officially or unofficially -- which means two things:

1. Out of desperation, I picked up Jonathan Dwyer in one of my fantasy leagues.
2. Ben Roethlisberger is going to have to win this game on the strength of his right arm and his ability to escape Cincy's front four.

Above all else, he needs to improve his accuracy and timing with his receivers inside the red zone.  The last two weeks, he's been great between the 20s, but was pretty far off target once he got inside the 20.  That's why the Steelers attempted seven field goals the last two games and that's one of the reasons they lost to the Titans last Thursday night.  I know that saying "you need to score touchdowns when you get in the red zone" is not expert football analysis, but that doesn't mean it's not true.  It's also especially critical for Sunday night's game considering the fact that the Bengals can score points in a hurry and the Steelers seem to need every last point of cushioning they can manage on the road in the fourth quarter.

If the guys subbing for the injured players step up and play above their potential and the guys that have played below their potential just far -- like, say, Ike Taylor --  play up to or above their potential, then they'll win this game.  If Green goes off or it's a tight game with five minutes left to play, I have to say that I don't have enough faith in this team -- to say nothing of the fact that the Bengals are actually pretty damned good -- to think they'll be able to pull off a road victory.

I just think that this is still a talented, veteran group with a solid coaching staff that will dig deep and win a game that they can -- and must -- win.  If they lose, then this is a declining, aging group with a solid coaching staff that will look to finish the season with a respectable record, for the sake of pride.

Like I said, it's a must-win.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Bengals 17

Pick Em Week 7

(For Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)
 
Ugh.  On behalf of all of us here at Steelers N At, I apologize for last week's picks.  You know we screwed the pooch when I was the big winner with five.  You also know it's a crazy, crazy world when the Texans and Ravens have tied records, the Cards are doing better than the Pats and I actually have to say, "Damnit, I knew I should have picked the Browns!"

On the bright side, Forty's only a point in the lead right now.  Silver linings and n'at.

This week, I think we did a little compensating.  There's some silly and/or crazy picks in there - I'm just as guilty as the others - but hopefully it will be a more cut-and-dried week.

 

Lock of the Week (Keller): New York Football Giants over Washington Redskins: 31-24 (take the over and the point spread at 6.5): Still can't trust the Pats after they burned me at home against the Cardinals, Seattle is a fluky, unpredictable team, and the 49ers are still suspect and unreliable in my opinion.  It's true that RGIII scares the every-living bejeebus out of me and he could win this game all by himself (like he did against the Vikings).  I just don't see the Giants defensive line giving him the edge.  I think they're going to keep him in the pocket and beat on him... and he's already a little groggy from the Falcons game.  Washington can't play defense and New York has been solid in the running game and passing game the last few weeks.  

But, really, this is just the lesser of three evils.  If last week is anything to shout about, the NFL and its stupid, stupid concept of parity has made things really difficult on us "expert" handicappers.

Lock of the Week (Weidman): New England Patriots over New York Jets. 48-21. (Take the over and the spread.)  I'd love to be witty and original, but you really only need to look at Forty's post below.  He makes all the points that I would.  Short preview: Pats + Loss last week + home this week + Jets = Slaughter of the Jets.

Lock of the Week (Forty): New England Patriots over New York Jets. 45-17. (Take the over and the point spread, even though it's 10.5. Look for this to turn out like the Pats last home game against Denver.)

Pete Rozelle's dream of total parity in the NFL has been achieved. Looking over this week, no team really has a clear advantage. There were so many coin flip games this coming week, I usually just went with home field advantage for the slight edge.

Last week, the Jets whipped up on the Colts and the Patriots were edged by Seattle at home. However, there are certain truths I know about the Patriots. Namely, that Bill Belichick hates to lose two in a row, he hates to lose to the Jets, he hates to lose at home and he'll slit his wrists before he loses to the Jets at home to go under .500, especially with Tim Tebow on the roster whether he plays or not. Belichik is hating all the crap being talked about the Pats and the AFC East at this time. He wants this to be a statement game and the game where the Patriots become the Patriots. The Jets are still a mess, despite last week's performance. I think they go into this game mentally knowing the Patriots are going to own them and that will get them owned. Maybe I'm a homer coming on too strong here, but history, my gut and the oddsmakers in Vegas are with me. 

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Pick Em Week 6

(For Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

Well, Keller and I survived New Orleans and Forty survived....um...Ohio...and I'm back, baby!  A lot of close calls this week, but we're mostly in agreement below.  My toughest choice was the Bungles over the Brownies.  My gut actually says the Browns can win this one, but I just still can't bring myself to pick them.  I wouldn't be surprised if the same is true of the other two guys.  San Diego is another toughy for Monday night, but personally, I had to go with the home team.

Also, I need to take a minute to say:  I hate Thursday Night Football.  Hate it. It's even worse when the Steelers get stuck with that slot.  Football belongs on Thanksgiving Thursday and that's it.  And, frankly, that's only because I'm in a gravy-coma and have the attention span for football, a parade or Die Hard.  That's it.

So, on to the picks.  If I nail my picks, I can close the gap a bit.  If I don't...I'm in trouble.  As always, comments are appreciated below.



Lock of the Week (Keller): Atlanta over Oakland (Atlanta covers the 9 point spread and take the Over at 48.5): 34-20 I thought about picking against Cleveland, but they're at home and I don't trust the Bengals on the road.  Or at home.  Not with my precious, precious Lock.  Oakland is one injured defensive back away from having Carson Palmer play safety and Julio Jones and Roddy White are pretty good.

I know this screams Trap Game and the Raiders just came off a bye, but I think the Falcons have enough talent and enough of a home field advantage to win this one easy. 

Lock of the Week (Weidman) Atlanta over Oakland (Atlanta covers and take the under) 24-14:I hate to be Captain Spread, but when most spreads are less than 5 points this week, and this game is a whopping 9, I gotta take it.  Plus, I'm still angry about the Steelers' loss.  Plus, Atlanta is looking stronger than the Raiders, and I think Oakland's wins have been more about luck than anything else.

Lock of the Week (Forty): Atlanta over Oakland (spread is 9 and the over/under is 48. I'd go under and Atlanta with the points). 27-13 A five-year-old with no knowledge of football could tell you that an undefeated team at home should beat a one win team on the road. And Oakland's one win came during The Week Of Which We Will Never Speak of Again, so that hardly counts. Atlanta has been averaging just under 30 points a game and Oakland is averaging around 14, so figuring out the score isn't too hard either. I really can't give much more insight here other than Oakland sucks on both sides of the ball and Atlanta is pretty good on both sides of the ball. The only thing I could see happening here is Atlanta taking Oakland too lightly due to the 5-0 start and thinking they can coast at home. Then again, they probably can.

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Soooo Shady: Eagles at Steelers Preview

I'm going to say that LeSean McCoy is the key to this game because I think the Steelers will be able to limit the amount of damage Michael Vick does if they can keep Shady in check.  If he's able to gouge them like Darren McFadden did in the Week 3, then they're not going to be able to contain Vick, either.

McCoy is the most talented player on a very talented offense.  He's such a bad ass that he used to say his name when he juked someone in practice as an extra-special kind of taunt.  He has excellent vision, great feet, good acceleration, and is a very capable receiver.  However, he's not a real home run threat and he doesn't do well when he doesn't have nice gaps to run through.  If the Steeler defense can maintain gap integrity, fill the running lanes, and no one tries to be a hero, they should be able to keep him hemmed in.  At least I hope so.

The Eagles are 3-1, but it hasn't been pretty.  They've won their three games by a total of four points, but they've faced a pretty formidable schedule (except for when they played the Browns).  The big issue thus far this season has been turnovers.  They commit a lot of those.  The Steelers don't force a lot of those.  So, in a case of the "moveable object versus the resistable force" the Steelers will need to force some turnovers to win this game.  This game will most likely turn into a shootout and the Steelers will need those extra possessions in order to win.  I think that they have it in them, but this game fills me with dread.

Philly has basically returned their "Dream Team" roster from 2011 (minus Vince Young), but they're actually finishing games and have been able to overcome the fact that they're their own worst enemy.  There's a ton of talent on this roster and it's finally being used properly, most notably by allowing Michael Vick to be Michael Vick and not forcing a bunch of man coverage corners to play zone.  If they play together and don't beat themselves, they could route the Steelers and it could be an ugly game.

Really, all signs and match-ups point to an Eagles victory.  But, I picked the Steelers in Pick Em this week because of what I think are several important factors.

1. They're at home and they play better at home.
2. They're coming off a bye and they've had two weeks to prepare for Philadelphia.
3. Everyone's healthy for the first time this season, most importantly James Harrison and Troy Polamalu are coming back, which should be a big boost for the defense.  I'm happy that Mendenhall is coming back and I'm starting him in two fantasy football leagues, but I think the defense's ability to get stops and force turnovers is going to be the key to this game.
4. The defense got embarrassed in Oakland and they're pissed off.  Historically, they turn in a strong performance the week after they get beat down and subsequently accused of being too old.  There's a lot of veteran leadership on the defense, but, more importantly, there are a lot of guys that take pride in playing good defense.  Their ability to come back from a poor showing and force everyone to gulp down a frosty glass of STFU is what's going to win this game for the Steelers.

I feel confident in those four points, but I'm still filled with dread.  This game could left me up, or it could crush my spirits, with the Steelers being crushed as well.

But, what the hell, gotta predict something, right?

Prediction:

Steelers 31, Eagles 27

Pick Em Week 5

(For Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and year-to-date -- click here.)

Weidman is on vacation, so I, Keller, am responsible for writing something pithy and amusing and interesting.  So... take my wife, please?

Seriously, don't take my wife.  I'll be out of town for a week and I'm frightened that she'll see the outside world that I've been denying her by locking her up in the basement and she'll leave me.

Last week, we crushed it, at least compared to the first three weeks of the season.  Whether that's due to the actual refs coming back or to the fact that we finally got our bearings, I have no idea.  The point is that we successfully predicted the outcomes of games better than most experts, so you should listen to us.

Onto this week's picks and Locks....


And now, after being in the French Quarter since Sunday, need to roll out an image manipulation program and attempt to make the picks graphic



Okay, that wasn't too bad...now back to hurricanes.
<\Weidman Edit>


Lock of the Week (Keller): New York Football Giants over Cleveland Browns 31-10 (Giants will cover favored by 11, take the Under, because the Browns won't score enough points):  There are a lot of solid Lock of the Week candidates on the board this week, but I tend to stay away from road teams when picking my Locks and I don't trust the 49ers quite yet after they broke Forty's heart in Week 3 (thanks, Vikings!).  Besides, what looks better than a pissed off Giants team playing at home against the overmatched Browns?

When you get right down to it, I don't think the Browns can beat anyone, which is why "Browns Opponent" is penciled in for my Lock of the Week for the balance of the season.  They can go ahead and keep trying to prove me wrong.  If they do, bully for them.  As long as it isn't against the Steelers.

Lock of the Week (Weidman)New York Football Giants over Cleveland Browns 31-7 (Giants will cover, Browns will get lost on the way to the game and not score enough):
Man, I'm totally not sold on the Giants this season just yet, but I have a hard time not picking a Browns opponent as a lock, assuming that team knows which end of the field they're running towards (as such, I wouldn't be able to pick the Saints as a lock over the Browns if that would have been scheduled for this season.)     Damnit, and here I thought I might be able to add something new.  But that just goes to show: it's an easy lock against the Brownies.  Take it, and pity the souls of those who need to root for that team.

Lock of the Week (Forty): San Francisco over Buffalo 34-17 (I think San Francisco will open it up 
big in the fourth quarter, so take the spread and the under, barely. Just straight up is a better bet. This could wind up looking like the New England game Buffalo played last week.)

As Brad said, there are a lot of good lock candidates this week. I don't want to keep picking on the Browns and while I love Houston over the Jets in a romp, I don't want to wait until Monday night to see if I got my lock right. Brad also mentioned I got burned by the 49ers previously, but that was a road game against a better than originally though Vikings. The 49ers are home this time and coming off of blanking the Jets.

Everything I said last time about San Francisco playing solidly as a team and wanting to really make a statement goes again here. Buffalo also burned me as I picked them to lose to the Browns previously. What I said goes again here and all of the Bills' faults were pretty much exposed in the Patriots game last week as they collapsed in the second half defensively and the offense lived and died by the big gain. So, my logic here is being wrong on these teams twice means I should be right here. I didn't say it was normal logic, it was my logic.


Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode."  A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team.  Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.