I have a feeling that this game is going to suck. A lot. Like, suck more than the last two games, if that's even possible. In the Sunday night game two weeks ago, I at least saw a silver lining, a way that the Steelers might be able to pull it off. By the time kickoff rolled around, I actually thought they had a good shot at winning. This week? Not so much.
First and foremost, Unibrow is significantly better at home than he is on the road. One of the reasons I thought the Steelers might be able to beat the hated Ravens in Week 11 was that he loses about 40 quarterback rating points when he's not in Baltimore. He didn't play very well at Heinz Field, but now he gains those 40 points this week. Torrey Smith was shut down by Ike Taylor in the last game and Ray Rice was kept pretty much in check. The only way this game stays close is if that happens again. Flacco will be able to spread the ball around to Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin and will be more effective even if Smith and Rice don't blow up, but we're looking at shades of the 2011 opener if they do.
Then you have the fact that the offense probably won't be able to get going with Charlie Batch behind center. I'm guessing he'll be on a short leash, but Brian Hoyer and Byron Leftwich aren't exactly attractive alternatives. Baltimore's defense has been surprisingly soft against the run this season, but they were able to hold Jonathan Dwyer and Rashard Mendenhall to 88 yards on 23 attempts. The Steelers had 134 yards total, but 31 of that came on Leftwich's touchdown run, which skews the average.
In order to have a shot at winning this game, they need to keep it low scoring and ugly like the last game. In order to do that, they need to run the ball effectively and take some of the pressure off Batch. Unfortunately, Batch doesn't scare anyone, especially the hated Ravens. They'll stack 15 guys in the box and make Batch beat them. I don't think there's a lot of people that believe he can beat them, possibly not even Batch himself.
While the logical center of my brain knows that there's a very low statistical probability of them committing eight turnovers again, I can't convince the rest of my brain that it's most likely not going to happen. I can seriously see six or seven turnovers, even if they don't get to eight. If they lose the turnover battle in a big way, they're going to lose big.
There are a lot of factors that point to this game ending in a blowout and some serious tears, but I don't think it's going to be that lopsided. Yes, Charlie Batch is a shadow of his former self and yes, the hated Ravens still have a lot of talent on defense. Yes, Flacco is lights out at home, but he's also struggled against the Steelers throughout his career, regardless of where the game's being played. They don't have Ben Roethisberger -- finally, officially ruled out today -- or LaMarr Woodley, but they get Antonio Brown back and Troy Polamalu is apparently going to play a significant role on defense.
With Brown back, that takes the defensive focus away from Mike Wallace and allows Heath and Emmanuel Sanders more room to roam. Sure, Batch is still throwing them the ball, but putting Brown back in the mix makes this a better offense. Batch has a faster delivery than Leftwich, so that means they can mix in some quick screens and make Baltimore think twice about loading up the line of scrimmage and leaving Wallace, Sanders, and Brown free to roam after the catch. One missed tackle could mean a huge play.
If they get something out of the passing game, that opens things up for the running game, they don't turn the ball over, and Troy does something spectacular on defense, then maybe there's a chance for victory. But... I highly doubt that all those things happen on Sunday.
They'll accomplish enough of those objectives to keep the game from being a laugher, but I think they ultimately fall short.
Prediction:
Hated Ravens 23, Steelers 13
Friday, November 30, 2012
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Pick Em Week 13
(For Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)
Last week gave Forty a 5-game lead over me and a 3-game one over Keller. This might put him out of reach, unless the bottom drops out. In the meantime, I'm gonna hit the ATM.
In regards to the Steelers last week, well, turnovers change games and- Hey! Did you hear that the Power picked up Alvin Ray Jackson? Dude had almost as many interceptions last season with the Voodoo (14) by himself as the Power had as a whole team (17.) That's huge! Now we just need to re-sign PJ Berry and I'll feel a lot better about the season. So, in conclusion, it was a really rough game for Steelers fans last week.
Lock of the Week (Keller): Green Bay over Minnesota (Packers are my lock, but I'm not 100% sure they can cover a nine point spread and I'm thinking take the Under): 24-17 The Packers are at home, they're probably more than a little miffed about the fact that they got stomped by the Giants on Sunday night, and the Vikings pass defense is awful. It's possible that Aaron Rodgers goes off in this one, but he hasn't quite been the same since Greg Jennings got sidelined, Jordy Nelson has been hobbled, and defenses figured out that Randall Cobb is on the roster (and is good). Green Bay is really a warm weather team -- lots of timing routes, not much of a running game, defense built to protect a big lead -- which is weird, because they play on the Frozen Tundra. I checked the weather for Green Bay on Sunday and it's supposed to be in the 40s at kickoff with no precipitation and a very mild wind. That's good enough for me. I don't trust the Patriots in Miami in December. I don't care that they've won their last three games against cupcakes by a combined score of like 815-31, they're shaky on the road and the Dolphins have their number in December. Still gonna pick the Pats, of course, just not confident enough in them to trust them with my Lock.
Lock of the Week (Weidman): Green Bay over Minnesota 24-17
Lock of the Week (Forty): Houston over Tennessee 32-21 (Take Houston at 5.5 and the over of 47.) I kicked myself for not picking Jacksonville last week, because they had played strong the past few weeks and were home against an MIA Tennessee team. I let the records get to me. Here they shouldn't let me down as the Texans are 5-0 at home and the Titans are just 2-3 on the road. The Texans could be going into coasting mode, but they've just got too much talent to drop one at home against a sub-.500 club. What Houston has shown the past few weeks is their ability to turn it on when they need to and win games. So, this could be tighter than expected, but the Texans should pull it out. I almost went with Baltimore over Pittsburgh for the lock, but I didn't want Weidman and Keller to drive to Ohio and kick my rear.
Meet the "Experts":
Brad "QBERT" Keller
is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT
jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this
innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film
and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of
picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field
this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable
group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two
jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.
"Arena" Weidman's
prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a
decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of
this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but
that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted
follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is
colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong
opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the
Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly,
he just has trouble with the field being way too big.
Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst
earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a
40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King
Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew
Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest,
right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started
rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually
won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six
Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if
the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game.
They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.
Last week gave Forty a 5-game lead over me and a 3-game one over Keller. This might put him out of reach, unless the bottom drops out. In the meantime, I'm gonna hit the ATM.
In regards to the Steelers last week, well, turnovers change games and- Hey! Did you hear that the Power picked up Alvin Ray Jackson? Dude had almost as many interceptions last season with the Voodoo (14) by himself as the Power had as a whole team (17.) That's huge! Now we just need to re-sign PJ Berry and I'll feel a lot better about the season. So, in conclusion, it was a really rough game for Steelers fans last week.
Lock of the Week (Keller): Green Bay over Minnesota (Packers are my lock, but I'm not 100% sure they can cover a nine point spread and I'm thinking take the Under): 24-17 The Packers are at home, they're probably more than a little miffed about the fact that they got stomped by the Giants on Sunday night, and the Vikings pass defense is awful. It's possible that Aaron Rodgers goes off in this one, but he hasn't quite been the same since Greg Jennings got sidelined, Jordy Nelson has been hobbled, and defenses figured out that Randall Cobb is on the roster (and is good). Green Bay is really a warm weather team -- lots of timing routes, not much of a running game, defense built to protect a big lead -- which is weird, because they play on the Frozen Tundra. I checked the weather for Green Bay on Sunday and it's supposed to be in the 40s at kickoff with no precipitation and a very mild wind. That's good enough for me. I don't trust the Patriots in Miami in December. I don't care that they've won their last three games against cupcakes by a combined score of like 815-31, they're shaky on the road and the Dolphins have their number in December. Still gonna pick the Pats, of course, just not confident enough in them to trust them with my Lock.
Lock of the Week (Weidman): Green Bay over Minnesota 24-17
Lock of the Week (Forty): Houston over Tennessee 32-21 (Take Houston at 5.5 and the over of 47.) I kicked myself for not picking Jacksonville last week, because they had played strong the past few weeks and were home against an MIA Tennessee team. I let the records get to me. Here they shouldn't let me down as the Texans are 5-0 at home and the Titans are just 2-3 on the road. The Texans could be going into coasting mode, but they've just got too much talent to drop one at home against a sub-.500 club. What Houston has shown the past few weeks is their ability to turn it on when they need to and win games. So, this could be tighter than expected, but the Texans should pull it out. I almost went with Baltimore over Pittsburgh for the lock, but I didn't want Weidman and Keller to drive to Ohio and kick my rear.
Meet the "Experts":
Brad "QBERT" Keller
is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT
jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this
innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film
and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of
picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field
this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable
group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two
jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.
"Arena" Weidman's
prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a
decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of
this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but
that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted
follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is
colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong
opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the
Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly,
he just has trouble with the field being way too big.
Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst
earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a
40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King
Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew
Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest,
right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started
rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually
won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six
Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if
the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game.
They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away. Friday, November 23, 2012
Walking Wounded: Steelers at Browns Preview
I picked the Steelers in this week's Pick Em because I think that they have just enough to beat the Browns. I don't think it's going to be a blowout. I think it's going to be a close, ugly game, though I don't know that it's going to be low scoring. It has all the hallmarks of a game that should be low scoring, so that's probably why it won't be.
The Browns are better and they are headed in the right direction, but they're still a bad team. They have a rookie quarterback and Dick LeBeau tends to destroy rookie quarterbacks (see: Griffin, Robert III). Charlie Batch isn't great and his arm belongs in the Smithsonian, but the one thing he can still do is start a game or two and beat bad teams. He did it last year when the Steelers needed a win over the hapless Rams and I think he can do it again this year.
He'll take care of the ball, Todd Haley will call a conservative game on offense, and the defense should be able to confuse and confound Brandon Weeden enough that Cleveland won't be able to run away with the game.
Now, the big thing that concerns me is Trent Richardson. He's finally healthy -- he had a rib issue for a number games earlier in the season, but didn't miss any time -- he runs hard, and he can catch passes out of the backfield. He's basically a bigger, slower Ray Rice. The Steelers were able to mostly contain Rice on Sunday night and I think they'll be able to do the same against Richardson. They just need to make sure that they wrap him up and bring him to the ground. The tackling has been superb thus far this season, but Richardson is incredibly difficult to bring down. He has live feet and a powerful upper body, so arm tackles aren't going to cut it. They need to square up and fire into his mid-section, otherwise he's going to bounce off defenders and make this game a nightmare to watch.
Since I didn't write a review of the loss to the hated Ravens, I'm going to add a few personnel notes in here.
First of all, if Leftwich hurt his ribs in the first quarter and was ineffective -- and he was -- then Batch needs to go into the game. They have Batch on the roster to go into the game in emergency situations like that. That's the whole reason to have him on the team. If you don't trust him to go into that situation, then don't have him on the roster. If you don't trust him to back up Leftwich when Ben Roethlisberger is hurt, don't have him on the roster. They signed Brian Hoyer earlier this week. Hoyer was Tom Brady's back up in New England for the past three seasons, but they eventually lost faith in him and cut him on August 31st. He's been available since that date. If they didn't trust Batch to come in and Hoyer was available before the Baltimore game, why didn't they just sign him last week? Why not sign him, then he has another week of practice under his belt and can potentially start against the Browns this week?
Ultimately, I blame Mike Tomlin for the loss against Baltimore. He kept an injured Leftwich in the game when Batch couldn't have been any worse. Then he claimed that Leftwich got hurt at some point in the fourth quarter, not the first quarter. But... if Tomlin knew that Leftwich got hurt at some point during the game, why was he still in there to skip the ball 30 yards to Mike Wallace when Wallace was 50 yards away. Batch couldn't have made that throw, either, but Leftwich also shouldn't have been in the position to need to make that throw.
Then you have the fact that they called two timeouts in the red zone to set up a really complicated passing play on third and two that ended up failing. If they scored there, I can't guarantee that they would've won, but they would've at least had the lead. You don't need to call two timeouts to know to hand the ball to Jonathan Dwyer (or Rashard Mendenhall) twice. If the staff didn't trust Leftwich in that situation and needed to make sure they had just the right play called, then they should've played it safe and just handed the ball off.
I have a severe man-crush on Tomlin and I can't stay mad at him, but I have to say Sunday night's loss is on him. Obviously, we need to continue to evaluate and press on. Hopefully, we can stack some wins. It's a process.
Oh, hey, Plax is back in town! I think he can help out in the red zone, but that's about it. Given the fact that he's only valuable in the red zone and opponents know this, that means they're going to take him away in the only situation where he's valuable. Maybe that will open things up for the other guys -- like Heath and Paulson especially -- but I don't think that adds enough value to the team to offset all the negatives that Plax brings to the table. When word came out that they signed Burress, a co-worker of mine IMed me and asked me what I thought about it. I said, "I think it's great. An old head case that gets hurt easily is exactly what this team needs." Even though it was in text, he was able to pick up on the sarcasm.
Overall, this has been a very negative post, but I do believe there is a silver lining. This is a team that excels in the face of adversity. They play their best when their backs are against the wall and they feel as though nobody believes in them. At that point, they circle the wagons and they trust the other guys in the locker room. Tomlin is also at his best in these kinds of situations.
I think they can use that motivation to beat the Browns and possibly beat the Ravens. They only need 3 or 4 more wins to secure a playoff spot, but the division title is probably out of reach at this point. I think the season is far from over and I think there's a real possibility that they could get on a little roll, just in time for Roethlisberger or Leftwich to come back and lead them in the playoffs.
For this week, I say they win, but it isn't pretty.
Prediction:
Steelers 21, Browns 17
The Browns are better and they are headed in the right direction, but they're still a bad team. They have a rookie quarterback and Dick LeBeau tends to destroy rookie quarterbacks (see: Griffin, Robert III). Charlie Batch isn't great and his arm belongs in the Smithsonian, but the one thing he can still do is start a game or two and beat bad teams. He did it last year when the Steelers needed a win over the hapless Rams and I think he can do it again this year.
He'll take care of the ball, Todd Haley will call a conservative game on offense, and the defense should be able to confuse and confound Brandon Weeden enough that Cleveland won't be able to run away with the game.
Now, the big thing that concerns me is Trent Richardson. He's finally healthy -- he had a rib issue for a number games earlier in the season, but didn't miss any time -- he runs hard, and he can catch passes out of the backfield. He's basically a bigger, slower Ray Rice. The Steelers were able to mostly contain Rice on Sunday night and I think they'll be able to do the same against Richardson. They just need to make sure that they wrap him up and bring him to the ground. The tackling has been superb thus far this season, but Richardson is incredibly difficult to bring down. He has live feet and a powerful upper body, so arm tackles aren't going to cut it. They need to square up and fire into his mid-section, otherwise he's going to bounce off defenders and make this game a nightmare to watch.
Since I didn't write a review of the loss to the hated Ravens, I'm going to add a few personnel notes in here.
First of all, if Leftwich hurt his ribs in the first quarter and was ineffective -- and he was -- then Batch needs to go into the game. They have Batch on the roster to go into the game in emergency situations like that. That's the whole reason to have him on the team. If you don't trust him to go into that situation, then don't have him on the roster. If you don't trust him to back up Leftwich when Ben Roethlisberger is hurt, don't have him on the roster. They signed Brian Hoyer earlier this week. Hoyer was Tom Brady's back up in New England for the past three seasons, but they eventually lost faith in him and cut him on August 31st. He's been available since that date. If they didn't trust Batch to come in and Hoyer was available before the Baltimore game, why didn't they just sign him last week? Why not sign him, then he has another week of practice under his belt and can potentially start against the Browns this week?
Ultimately, I blame Mike Tomlin for the loss against Baltimore. He kept an injured Leftwich in the game when Batch couldn't have been any worse. Then he claimed that Leftwich got hurt at some point in the fourth quarter, not the first quarter. But... if Tomlin knew that Leftwich got hurt at some point during the game, why was he still in there to skip the ball 30 yards to Mike Wallace when Wallace was 50 yards away. Batch couldn't have made that throw, either, but Leftwich also shouldn't have been in the position to need to make that throw.
Then you have the fact that they called two timeouts in the red zone to set up a really complicated passing play on third and two that ended up failing. If they scored there, I can't guarantee that they would've won, but they would've at least had the lead. You don't need to call two timeouts to know to hand the ball to Jonathan Dwyer (or Rashard Mendenhall) twice. If the staff didn't trust Leftwich in that situation and needed to make sure they had just the right play called, then they should've played it safe and just handed the ball off.
I have a severe man-crush on Tomlin and I can't stay mad at him, but I have to say Sunday night's loss is on him. Obviously, we need to continue to evaluate and press on. Hopefully, we can stack some wins. It's a process.
Oh, hey, Plax is back in town! I think he can help out in the red zone, but that's about it. Given the fact that he's only valuable in the red zone and opponents know this, that means they're going to take him away in the only situation where he's valuable. Maybe that will open things up for the other guys -- like Heath and Paulson especially -- but I don't think that adds enough value to the team to offset all the negatives that Plax brings to the table. When word came out that they signed Burress, a co-worker of mine IMed me and asked me what I thought about it. I said, "I think it's great. An old head case that gets hurt easily is exactly what this team needs." Even though it was in text, he was able to pick up on the sarcasm.
Overall, this has been a very negative post, but I do believe there is a silver lining. This is a team that excels in the face of adversity. They play their best when their backs are against the wall and they feel as though nobody believes in them. At that point, they circle the wagons and they trust the other guys in the locker room. Tomlin is also at his best in these kinds of situations.
I think they can use that motivation to beat the Browns and possibly beat the Ravens. They only need 3 or 4 more wins to secure a playoff spot, but the division title is probably out of reach at this point. I think the season is far from over and I think there's a real possibility that they could get on a little roll, just in time for Roethlisberger or Leftwich to come back and lead them in the playoffs.
For this week, I say they win, but it isn't pretty.
Prediction:
Steelers 21, Browns 17
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Pick Em Week 12
(For Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)
Ah, Thanksgiving. A magical time of the year built around gluttony, football and trampling people at Walmart for $5 off a Martha Stewart panini press. If Super Bowl Sunday is the Christmas of the football world, Thanksgiving is the...well... Thanksgiving of the football world. It's the one time of year I won't bitch about football on Thursday (except that the marquee game is the Pats and Jets) and really laugh at people who forget to set their fantasy lineups.
We had one of our best weeks ever last week. We all got bamboozled by the Jets game, so we won't talk about that. Other than that, there were only a couple of individual picks that were wrong. Take that 9-year old kid who probably still beat us!
So, as is tradition, it looks like we're going to follow up a good week with several big swing games. This week, Forty will either pretty much clinch the season, or fall way back (That's been said far too often this season.) Actually, I think this pick 'em's gonna come straight down to the wire.
A note on the Steelers (because this is Steelers N'At, not NFL N'At): There's been a lot of talk about how screwed the Steelers are right now. AB's out, Troy's possibly out, I'm sure there's a running back hurt somewhere and Ben, Leftwich and Cotchery are all out with the same injury. (Note to self: Trademark "Steeler's BBQ Rib Sauce) We're on our third-string, should-just-be-a-coach QB, Dennis Dixon said he'd rather be on the Ravens practice squad than get a game check this week, and Plax is back in town...but even with all that, I'd still take the Steelers over the Browns this week. Hell, I'd take the Power over the Browns this week, and they don't have a quarterback, either.
Batch is 5-2 as a starter for the Black N Gold. We're depleted in key areas, but we're not out in those areas. Hell, even if a meteor strikes midfield, Heath can still go in and throw to Plax. It's not the end of the world. If the Brownies made it to Thanksgiving with hope left for the season, then it'd be the end of the world.
******Keller's Note: Forty picked Washington over Dallas, but we put it in wrong. His pick will be reflected in the standings, but we didn't have time to fix the graphic. Happy Thanksgiving*****
Lock of the Week (Keller): Denver over Kansas City (solid, but unspectacular cover; at 27-10, take the Broncos and the Under): Dear Jesus, I almost broke down and took the Bengals as my Lock. They're at home, Oakland is awful, they looked good enough against the Chiefs last week... just couldn't bring myself to do it. Besides, Kansas City is awful-er, Denver's on a roll, and they've been forcing a ton of turnovers while the Chiefs have been giving them out like candy from a dark van with no windows. It's usually really tough to go into Arrowhead and get a win, but not this season. I think the Broncos take care of business and cover.
Lock of the Week (Weidman): Denver over Kansas City (Cover, over.)
With respect to Mr. Hayhurst below - and his points are very valid - I gotta take this game for the lock. Peyton has been known to hold back when he's looking solidly at the post season, but not this year. The Colts made a bold choice to cut him when he probably had a few years left in the tank to take The Next Big Thing (and I think Luck's going to mature into something impressive that will make people forget this season), but I doubt that Peyton "If you have a product, I'll sell it" Manning sees it that way. He wants to prove everyone wrong and put on another ring. That means not holding back, even against a JV team like KC.
Lock of the Week (Forty): Cincinnati over Oakland (31-17. The Bengals should be able to cover eight and look for the ball to be thrown around a lot, so go with the over.)Denver over Kansas City looks like the safe bet, but the Broncos could take a week off after pretty much clinching the west, even against a division rival. The Bengals, after a mid-season slide, are peaking at the right time and are hungry to get back into the playoff picture. The Raiders have lost three straight and their last two wins were against the only teams in the NFL possibly worst than they are, the Chiefs and Jaguars. Lets just look at points here. In the Bengals last two wins they've put 28 or more on the board while holding opponents to under two touchdowns. In their last three losses, Oakland has been able to score, but the defense has allowed 38 points or more. Here's the intangible: Carson Palmer. He's played well all year and you would think he would want to show up his former team, but that doesn't mean anything to his teammates. A lot of Bengals players remember Palmer basically being a crybaby and asking to be traded when the chips were down, then threatening to retire. They would like nothing better than to cram the ball down his throat. The Bengals are just way more motivated to get the win against a bad team.
Meet the "Experts":
Brad "QBERT" Keller
is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT
jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this
innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film
and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of
picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field
this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable
group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two
jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.
"Arena" Weidman's
prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a
decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of
this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but
that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted
follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is
colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong
opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the
Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly,
he just has trouble with the field being way too big.
Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst
earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a
40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King
Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew
Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest,
right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started
rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually
won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six
Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if
the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game.
They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.
Ah, Thanksgiving. A magical time of the year built around gluttony, football and trampling people at Walmart for $5 off a Martha Stewart panini press. If Super Bowl Sunday is the Christmas of the football world, Thanksgiving is the...well... Thanksgiving of the football world. It's the one time of year I won't bitch about football on Thursday (except that the marquee game is the Pats and Jets) and really laugh at people who forget to set their fantasy lineups.
We had one of our best weeks ever last week. We all got bamboozled by the Jets game, so we won't talk about that. Other than that, there were only a couple of individual picks that were wrong. Take that 9-year old kid who probably still beat us!
So, as is tradition, it looks like we're going to follow up a good week with several big swing games. This week, Forty will either pretty much clinch the season, or fall way back (That's been said far too often this season.) Actually, I think this pick 'em's gonna come straight down to the wire.
A note on the Steelers (because this is Steelers N'At, not NFL N'At): There's been a lot of talk about how screwed the Steelers are right now. AB's out, Troy's possibly out, I'm sure there's a running back hurt somewhere and Ben, Leftwich and Cotchery are all out with the same injury. (Note to self: Trademark "Steeler's BBQ Rib Sauce) We're on our third-string, should-just-be-a-coach QB, Dennis Dixon said he'd rather be on the Ravens practice squad than get a game check this week, and Plax is back in town...but even with all that, I'd still take the Steelers over the Browns this week. Hell, I'd take the Power over the Browns this week, and they don't have a quarterback, either.
Batch is 5-2 as a starter for the Black N Gold. We're depleted in key areas, but we're not out in those areas. Hell, even if a meteor strikes midfield, Heath can still go in and throw to Plax. It's not the end of the world. If the Brownies made it to Thanksgiving with hope left for the season, then it'd be the end of the world.
******Keller's Note: Forty picked Washington over Dallas, but we put it in wrong. His pick will be reflected in the standings, but we didn't have time to fix the graphic. Happy Thanksgiving*****
Lock of the Week (Keller): Denver over Kansas City (solid, but unspectacular cover; at 27-10, take the Broncos and the Under): Dear Jesus, I almost broke down and took the Bengals as my Lock. They're at home, Oakland is awful, they looked good enough against the Chiefs last week... just couldn't bring myself to do it. Besides, Kansas City is awful-er, Denver's on a roll, and they've been forcing a ton of turnovers while the Chiefs have been giving them out like candy from a dark van with no windows. It's usually really tough to go into Arrowhead and get a win, but not this season. I think the Broncos take care of business and cover.
Lock of the Week (Weidman): Denver over Kansas City (Cover, over.)
With respect to Mr. Hayhurst below - and his points are very valid - I gotta take this game for the lock. Peyton has been known to hold back when he's looking solidly at the post season, but not this year. The Colts made a bold choice to cut him when he probably had a few years left in the tank to take The Next Big Thing (and I think Luck's going to mature into something impressive that will make people forget this season), but I doubt that Peyton "If you have a product, I'll sell it" Manning sees it that way. He wants to prove everyone wrong and put on another ring. That means not holding back, even against a JV team like KC.
Lock of the Week (Forty): Cincinnati over Oakland (31-17. The Bengals should be able to cover eight and look for the ball to be thrown around a lot, so go with the over.)Denver over Kansas City looks like the safe bet, but the Broncos could take a week off after pretty much clinching the west, even against a division rival. The Bengals, after a mid-season slide, are peaking at the right time and are hungry to get back into the playoff picture. The Raiders have lost three straight and their last two wins were against the only teams in the NFL possibly worst than they are, the Chiefs and Jaguars. Lets just look at points here. In the Bengals last two wins they've put 28 or more on the board while holding opponents to under two touchdowns. In their last three losses, Oakland has been able to score, but the defense has allowed 38 points or more. Here's the intangible: Carson Palmer. He's played well all year and you would think he would want to show up his former team, but that doesn't mean anything to his teammates. A lot of Bengals players remember Palmer basically being a crybaby and asking to be traded when the chips were down, then threatening to retire. They would like nothing better than to cram the ball down his throat. The Bengals are just way more motivated to get the win against a bad team.
Meet the "Experts":
Brad "QBERT" Keller
is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT
jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this
innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film
and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of
picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field
this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable
group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two
jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system."Arena" Weidman's
prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a
decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of
this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but
that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted
follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is
colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong
opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the
Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly,
he just has trouble with the field being way too big.Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst
earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a
40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King
Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew
Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest,
right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started
rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually
won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six
Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if
the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game.
They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away. Friday, November 16, 2012
Hate to Do This: Hated Ravens at Steelers Preview
I hate the hated Ravens so much that I refer to them as "the hated Ravens." I still hate Brian Billick and he hasn't coached for the team in like five years. I hate Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and even Elvis Grbac (mostly because of the weird name, but he did play for Baltimore for a season). I hate the hated Ravens so much that they almost made me hate Rod Woodson.
But, there's one thing that I hate more than the hated Ravens: Jay Cutler's face. Maybe there's two things. Jay Cutler's face and picking the hated Ravens to beat the Steelers. I already went on record picking them in this week's Pick Em, but I wanted to go on record here and explain how much picking Baltimore to win Sunday night sucked.
I think the hated Ravens are going to win and I hate saying that.
Now I'm going to talk about what the Steelers need to do to win. It's not as impossible as it might seem.
Consider the following:
I think they'll get off to a slow start. The hated Ravens know the Steelers almost as well as they know themselves. They know that this team can't come back from a big deficit without Ben Roethlisberger. Baltimore's primary objective will be to get off to a fast start and get the Steelers off balance as quickly as possible.
Byron Leftwich won't be as bad as he was against the Chiefs. He'll have a full week of practice under his belt for this game and Todd Haley will put together a game plan that works with Leftwich's strengths. There has been a lot of chatter about the fact that Leftwich is a bad fit for Haley's offense. But, the fact of the matter is that Haley designed this year's offense -- and last week's game plan -- around Ben Roethlisberger and the other personnel the Steelers have on the roster. When they hired him as offensive coordinator, I wrote about the fact that he's a personnel guy, not a system guy. When he had Kurt Warner and a bunch of great receivers in Arizona, he called a lot of passes. When he had Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones in Kansas City, he called a lot of runs. When he realized that the Steelers had a bunch of explosive playmakers at receiver and an offensive line that had trouble protecting its quarterback, he called a lot of quick timing passes and screens. When Roethlisberger Monday night's game, they already had the game plan installed and he couldn't start calling stuff that was completely different than what they had practiced all week. On Sunday night, his game plan will be optimized to make the most of what Leftwich brings to the table. The problem there is that it's not just Leftwich.
Antonio Brown will probably miss this game. Rashard Mendenhall will probably start after a long layoff. The offensive line still has pass protection issue. There are a lot of moving parts that are either unavailable or rusty. Couple that with the fact that Baltimore will want to do whatever they can to start fast and shut the Steelers down early and you can see how it's hard to imagine that they'll avoid getting off to slow start.
I think that they can keep the game low scoring even if they get off to a slow start, but I don't think that means they'll win. If they fall behind 14-0 or 10-0, they'll eventually rally, but I think they'll fall short.
Running the ball effectively and frequently is the last thing on the list, but it's also the most important. It affects whether or not they'll be able to accomplish #1 and #4. If they start out running the ball well, that takes the early pressure off Leftwich. If they keep running the ball well, that helps keep the ball away from Unibrow and the ever-deadly Ray Rice. It also sets up the play action passing game, which will slow down the pass rush of the hated Ravens and make things easier on Leftwich.
But... the Ravens know all this, which is why they'll stack the box, look to stop the run at all costs, and force Leftwich to beat them. They'll also bring a lot of extra defenders on the blitz when Haley does call a pass, knowing that they don't have the personnel to cover the Steelers receivers for more than three seconds.
Most of the pressure will come up the middle, since Leftwich doesn't have the mobility to break outside the tackle box and extend the play like Roethlisberger does. That's a problem because the interior linemen -- though they've done an exceptional job blowing up big holes between the tackles in the running game -- have had some serious issues in pass protection.
So... if the Steelers can run the ball well out of the gate and if they don't turn the ball over and if the hated Ravens defense doesn't embed Leftwich into the Heinz Field turf in the first half and if they can keep Ray Rice contained, they'll be able to win a close game.
And, while I'm asking for stuff, I'd like a pony.
Prediction:
Hated Ravens 17, Steelers 10
But, there's one thing that I hate more than the hated Ravens: Jay Cutler's face. Maybe there's two things. Jay Cutler's face and picking the hated Ravens to beat the Steelers. I already went on record picking them in this week's Pick Em, but I wanted to go on record here and explain how much picking Baltimore to win Sunday night sucked.
I think the hated Ravens are going to win and I hate saying that.
Now I'm going to talk about what the Steelers need to do to win. It's not as impossible as it might seem.
Consider the following:
- The Steelers are 4-0 at home (sure, they haven't beaten any good teams there yet, but they're undefeated.)
- Baltimore is 2-2 on the road and their two road wins are against the Chiefs (with a Orioles-Royals score of 9-6) and the Browns (25-15).
- The Unibrow sucks on the road this season. Home numbers: 113-173-1612-10-3-108.3. Road numbers: 71-136-719-3-4-62.7. He gains 45 quarterback rating points and four yards per attempt at home. Or, more importantly, he loses four yards an attempt and 45 rating points on the road.
- For the first time in recent memory, the hated Ravens aren't defending the run well. They rank 26th in the league in yards allowed, giving up 132 rushing yards a game.
- In four home games, the Steelers have given up an average of 12.3 points per game.
- Avoid getting off to a slow start.
- Not turn the ball over.
- Make it a low scoring game.
- Run the ball effectively and frequently.
I think they'll get off to a slow start. The hated Ravens know the Steelers almost as well as they know themselves. They know that this team can't come back from a big deficit without Ben Roethlisberger. Baltimore's primary objective will be to get off to a fast start and get the Steelers off balance as quickly as possible.
Byron Leftwich won't be as bad as he was against the Chiefs. He'll have a full week of practice under his belt for this game and Todd Haley will put together a game plan that works with Leftwich's strengths. There has been a lot of chatter about the fact that Leftwich is a bad fit for Haley's offense. But, the fact of the matter is that Haley designed this year's offense -- and last week's game plan -- around Ben Roethlisberger and the other personnel the Steelers have on the roster. When they hired him as offensive coordinator, I wrote about the fact that he's a personnel guy, not a system guy. When he had Kurt Warner and a bunch of great receivers in Arizona, he called a lot of passes. When he had Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones in Kansas City, he called a lot of runs. When he realized that the Steelers had a bunch of explosive playmakers at receiver and an offensive line that had trouble protecting its quarterback, he called a lot of quick timing passes and screens. When Roethlisberger Monday night's game, they already had the game plan installed and he couldn't start calling stuff that was completely different than what they had practiced all week. On Sunday night, his game plan will be optimized to make the most of what Leftwich brings to the table. The problem there is that it's not just Leftwich.
Antonio Brown will probably miss this game. Rashard Mendenhall will probably start after a long layoff. The offensive line still has pass protection issue. There are a lot of moving parts that are either unavailable or rusty. Couple that with the fact that Baltimore will want to do whatever they can to start fast and shut the Steelers down early and you can see how it's hard to imagine that they'll avoid getting off to slow start.
I think that they can keep the game low scoring even if they get off to a slow start, but I don't think that means they'll win. If they fall behind 14-0 or 10-0, they'll eventually rally, but I think they'll fall short.
Running the ball effectively and frequently is the last thing on the list, but it's also the most important. It affects whether or not they'll be able to accomplish #1 and #4. If they start out running the ball well, that takes the early pressure off Leftwich. If they keep running the ball well, that helps keep the ball away from Unibrow and the ever-deadly Ray Rice. It also sets up the play action passing game, which will slow down the pass rush of the hated Ravens and make things easier on Leftwich.
But... the Ravens know all this, which is why they'll stack the box, look to stop the run at all costs, and force Leftwich to beat them. They'll also bring a lot of extra defenders on the blitz when Haley does call a pass, knowing that they don't have the personnel to cover the Steelers receivers for more than three seconds.
Most of the pressure will come up the middle, since Leftwich doesn't have the mobility to break outside the tackle box and extend the play like Roethlisberger does. That's a problem because the interior linemen -- though they've done an exceptional job blowing up big holes between the tackles in the running game -- have had some serious issues in pass protection.
So... if the Steelers can run the ball well out of the gate and if they don't turn the ball over and if the hated Ravens defense doesn't embed Leftwich into the Heinz Field turf in the first half and if they can keep Ray Rice contained, they'll be able to win a close game.
And, while I'm asking for stuff, I'd like a pony.
Prediction:
Hated Ravens 17, Steelers 10
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Pick Em Week 11
(For Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)
A freaking tie? I lost a lock on a tie? Are you &%*#'n kidding me???
Then my sister-in-law had to inform me today that the 9 year-old son of one of her co-workers picked perfectly two weeks this season?
I don't care. Forty still sucks.
So, this week is another super boring one where we all picked along the same lines until the final two games. Disclaimer: I picked the Steelers because I needed to take a risk, and I just couldn't pick the Ravens. In all likelihood, however, the dirty birds are going to win. They were the stronger team coming into this week, and the Steelers have some critical injuries. The smart bet would be to take them unless, like me, you need the risky bet to win back some ground.
Lock of the Week (Keller): Houston over Jacksonville (if the Colts can beat the Jags in Jacksonville by 17, the Texans can beat them in Houston by at least that much, and take the over if it’s 44 or less): 38-10. I think the Jaguars have officially replaced the Browns as “team that I will pick against, regardless of who they’re playing.” This week, they happen to be playing a very talented, very confident, very motivated Texans team in Houston. If you can tease this against another spread or point total, I’d go higher than 17. I would go as high as 24, but probably not any higher than that, because Houston might decide to have mercy on the hapless Jags. Thing is, you don’t want to make the over/under any higher, because Jacksonville isn’t going to score a lot of points and, again, the Texans might be merciful. Even if I wasn’t afraid of dipping into the Patriots Lock well too much, I’d still take Houston. They’re about as Lockable a Lock as you can lock. (That sounds cooler when I say it in my head, so I’m keeping it there.)
Lock of the Week (Weidman): What Keller said
If the Chiefs didn't exist, the Jags would be the worst team in the NFL, no question. Houston is also at home after good road win. Take the Texans all day long.
Lock of the Week (Forty): Houston over Jacksonville 27-7 (Take the under because the Jags aren't going to put up many points.) There's only one double digit point spread in the early lines this week and that's Houston at home favored by 15.5 over Jacksonville. Houston showed last Sunday night that they were ready for prime time by handling the Bears on their own sloppy field. The Jags are probably considered the worst team in the NFL right now, after the Chiefs did show some life against the Steelers last week. Maurice Jones-Drew still being out puts more pressure on Blaine Gabbert who is still nursing a bad shoulder to his non-throwing arm. He'll probably have to throw it a ton here and look for him to get knocked around big time. In week two, the Texans easily beat the Jags at home 27-7 and just to be cute, I'm predicting the same score here.
Meet the "Experts":
Brad "QBERT" Keller is
the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones
is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative
approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding
angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and
handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's
anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts
that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No
problem. Because he has a foolproof system.
"Arena" Weidman's
prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a
decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of
this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but
that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted
follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is
colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions
on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals
should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has
trouble with the field being way too big.
Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned
his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old
man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but
there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe
memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He
feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a
2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super
Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins,
to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't
beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble
something about Franco Harris and walk away.
A freaking tie? I lost a lock on a tie? Are you &%*#'n kidding me???
Then my sister-in-law had to inform me today that the 9 year-old son of one of her co-workers picked perfectly two weeks this season?
I don't care. Forty still sucks.
So, this week is another super boring one where we all picked along the same lines until the final two games. Disclaimer: I picked the Steelers because I needed to take a risk, and I just couldn't pick the Ravens. In all likelihood, however, the dirty birds are going to win. They were the stronger team coming into this week, and the Steelers have some critical injuries. The smart bet would be to take them unless, like me, you need the risky bet to win back some ground.
Lock of the Week (Keller): Houston over Jacksonville (if the Colts can beat the Jags in Jacksonville by 17, the Texans can beat them in Houston by at least that much, and take the over if it’s 44 or less): 38-10. I think the Jaguars have officially replaced the Browns as “team that I will pick against, regardless of who they’re playing.” This week, they happen to be playing a very talented, very confident, very motivated Texans team in Houston. If you can tease this against another spread or point total, I’d go higher than 17. I would go as high as 24, but probably not any higher than that, because Houston might decide to have mercy on the hapless Jags. Thing is, you don’t want to make the over/under any higher, because Jacksonville isn’t going to score a lot of points and, again, the Texans might be merciful. Even if I wasn’t afraid of dipping into the Patriots Lock well too much, I’d still take Houston. They’re about as Lockable a Lock as you can lock. (That sounds cooler when I say it in my head, so I’m keeping it there.)
Lock of the Week (Weidman): What Keller said
If the Chiefs didn't exist, the Jags would be the worst team in the NFL, no question. Houston is also at home after good road win. Take the Texans all day long.
Lock of the Week (Forty): Houston over Jacksonville 27-7 (Take the under because the Jags aren't going to put up many points.) There's only one double digit point spread in the early lines this week and that's Houston at home favored by 15.5 over Jacksonville. Houston showed last Sunday night that they were ready for prime time by handling the Bears on their own sloppy field. The Jags are probably considered the worst team in the NFL right now, after the Chiefs did show some life against the Steelers last week. Maurice Jones-Drew still being out puts more pressure on Blaine Gabbert who is still nursing a bad shoulder to his non-throwing arm. He'll probably have to throw it a ton here and look for him to get knocked around big time. In week two, the Texans easily beat the Jags at home 27-7 and just to be cute, I'm predicting the same score here.
Meet the "Experts":
Brad "QBERT" Keller is
the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones
is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative
approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding
angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and
handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's
anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts
that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No
problem. Because he has a foolproof system."Arena" Weidman's
prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a
decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of
this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but
that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted
follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is
colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions
on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals
should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has
trouble with the field being way too big.Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned
his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old
man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but
there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe
memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He
feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a
2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super
Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins,
to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't
beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble
something about Franco Harris and walk away.Good News and Bad News: Chiefs at Steelers
At the end of regulation, Weidman turned to me and we had the following conversation.
Weidman: Here's what's going to happen: Chiefs win the toss, they elect to receive, then they finally play like the Chiefs and turn the ball over. Suisham wins it with a field goal.
Me: Turnover could also be a pick six. That also works.
Weidman: No. Suisham needs to win it. That's what needs to happen.
Me: OK, then. That works, too.
The game played out exactly as Weidman had foreseen it. That was the coolest thing that happened last night.
Sure, the Steelers won, which was cool. But, it was cool like finding out that the girl you hooked up with at the bar last month isn't pregnant. Or cool like discovering that the Check Engine light in your car came on because it had been more than six months since your last oil change. It's more a feeling of relief than anything.
Good news first:
As much as I like to kid Leftwich for taking 35 minutes to wind up and throw a pass and Charlie Batch for being 100 years old, they're not bad quarterbacks. Earlier today, I was talking to a couple of guys I work with and I described Leftwich as "about average" and Batch as "not awesome." What exactly that means is up for interpretation (hi there, Comments section!), but there's no getting around this fact: Neither of those guys is anywhere near as good as Ben Roethlisberger.
They'll be able to win some games with Leftwich or Batch under center -- they may, possibly, even be able to split with Baltimore -- but they're not winning the division with those guys and they're definitely not making a playoff run without Roethlisberger.
Basically, the really bad news is that we all just have to wait and see just how bad Ben's shoulder is hurt and how long it will take for him to come back.
Weidman: Here's what's going to happen: Chiefs win the toss, they elect to receive, then they finally play like the Chiefs and turn the ball over. Suisham wins it with a field goal.
Me: Turnover could also be a pick six. That also works.
Weidman: No. Suisham needs to win it. That's what needs to happen.
Me: OK, then. That works, too.
The game played out exactly as Weidman had foreseen it. That was the coolest thing that happened last night.
Sure, the Steelers won, which was cool. But, it was cool like finding out that the girl you hooked up with at the bar last month isn't pregnant. Or cool like discovering that the Check Engine light in your car came on because it had been more than six months since your last oil change. It's more a feeling of relief than anything.
Good news first:
- A win is a win. Lest you forget, I am always here to point that fact out, especially after an especially ugly victory.
- The Steelers committed fewer penalties and allowed fewer sacks than Kansas City. I don't care if the Chiefs are 1-7, that's still something that's good to keep track of, especially this season.
- Even though the defense didn't force turnovers in the quantities we expected, they got one when it really mattered.
- You can talk all you want about how the defense choked and allowed a 4th and 15 conversion that led to Kansas City tying the game, but they also held Matt Cassel to a 46 quarterback rating and held Jamaal Charles in check in the second half. The game could've gotten out of hand early in the first or midway through the third, but the defense didn't allow that to happen.
- Lawrence Timmons is having himself one hell of a season.
- Looks like Ben Roethlisberger isn't done for the season, which is kind of what I expected to hear this morning after watching his right arm dangle at his side as he left the field last night.
- They didn't run the ball effectively. That allowed the secondary to play tight on the Steelers receivers, which allowed the cornerbacks to fill in hard in run support, which led to even less effective running. I think it was a combination of a strong effort by the Chiefs defensive line, a lackluster performance by the interior of the Steeler offensive line, and the fact that Mike Tomlin benched Isaac Redman after he fumbled in the first quarter. Redman came back, but neither he nor Jonathan Dwyer was able to find a rhythm. It was a little bit of all those factors, but deciding to take Redman out was the only thing that could really be controlled. I think it held the running game back, but I might also just be mad because Redman's on my fantasy team and I needed another big game out of him.
- Jon Gruden was droning on about the fact that the Chiefs were carving the left side of the Steeler defense up in the run game. At least he was in the first half, when they were. In the second half, when Ziggy Hood started staying in his lanes and engaging two blockers by shooting the gap like he's supposed to, Gruden didn't mention why they were no longer having success on that side. Hood didn't suddenly forget what he was supposed to do, he's just inconsistent. Gap discipline and tackling fundamentals had been two strong areas for the defense the last month. In the first half, they weren't there, which is part of the reason Kansas City jumped to a 10-0 lead. Again, not taking anything away from the Chiefs offensive line, but that's part of the reason they were successful.
- With five minutes remaining in the third quarter, Byron Leftwich decided he wanted to throw a pass. He's still winding up. Dear God, it takes forever for that man to throw a football. With the way the protection has been against quality pass rushers, that's going to be an issue. Oh, hey, look at that! They play the hated Ravens next week.
- They're going to have trouble throwing the ball and running the ball without Roethlisberger in the line-up, as evidenced by their production on offense in the second half.
- One turnover forced in 4+ quarters, zero turnovers forced in regulation, against one of the most generous offenses in the history of the NFL.
- Really, I could nit pick about a dozen or so different things, but the important thing is that the Chiefs managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and the Steelers got a win.
As much as I like to kid Leftwich for taking 35 minutes to wind up and throw a pass and Charlie Batch for being 100 years old, they're not bad quarterbacks. Earlier today, I was talking to a couple of guys I work with and I described Leftwich as "about average" and Batch as "not awesome." What exactly that means is up for interpretation (hi there, Comments section!), but there's no getting around this fact: Neither of those guys is anywhere near as good as Ben Roethlisberger.
They'll be able to win some games with Leftwich or Batch under center -- they may, possibly, even be able to split with Baltimore -- but they're not winning the division with those guys and they're definitely not making a playoff run without Roethlisberger.
Basically, the really bad news is that we all just have to wait and see just how bad Ben's shoulder is hurt and how long it will take for him to come back.
Friday, November 09, 2012
It's Jamal the Rage: Chiefs at Steelers Preview
Here's the thing: The Steelers need to win this game and they absolutely should win this game. I went with a horrible, pun-laden title for this post, because there's not a whole lot to say.
The Kansas City Chiefs are an awful, awful team. We're eight games into the season and they haven't had a lead in regulation yet. Both of their quarterbacks have been concussed at some point this year. Jamaal Charles, who was supposed to be a superstar coming off an ACL injury, has been largely underwhelming. Dwayne Bowe is in a contract year and he's projected to end up with 90 catches for a little over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. They just cut cornerback Stanford Routt after signing him to a long term deal in the offseason. Opposing quarterbacks have a 106.3 passer rating against them. They have a -20 turnover differential and a -107 point differential.
Meanwhile, the Steelers are certainly trending up. The offensive line is coming together, the defense is playing tough and disciplined, and special teams is starting to turn the corner.
All this makes it look like Monday night's game is going to be a blowout. While I hope that happens -- I could always go for a good blowout -- I have a sinking "Tyler Palko Game" feeling about this one.
The Steelers tend to play down to the level of competition. Many of the guys on Kansas City's defense that were on the roster last year are on the roster this year. The same defensive backs that were able to jam the Steelers receivers at the line of scrimmage, then turn and run with them down the field last season, are still on the roster. Last season, the Steelers couldn't get anything going on the ground, then tried to pass their way out of it. When that failed, they hung on for dear life and narrowly defeated a Chiefs team that started Tyler Palko at quarterback.
Despite all that, I still think the Steelers are going to roll on Monday.
The Kansas City Chiefs are an awful, awful team. We're eight games into the season and they haven't had a lead in regulation yet. Both of their quarterbacks have been concussed at some point this year. Jamaal Charles, who was supposed to be a superstar coming off an ACL injury, has been largely underwhelming. Dwayne Bowe is in a contract year and he's projected to end up with 90 catches for a little over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. They just cut cornerback Stanford Routt after signing him to a long term deal in the offseason. Opposing quarterbacks have a 106.3 passer rating against them. They have a -20 turnover differential and a -107 point differential.
Meanwhile, the Steelers are certainly trending up. The offensive line is coming together, the defense is playing tough and disciplined, and special teams is starting to turn the corner.
All this makes it look like Monday night's game is going to be a blowout. While I hope that happens -- I could always go for a good blowout -- I have a sinking "Tyler Palko Game" feeling about this one.
The Steelers tend to play down to the level of competition. Many of the guys on Kansas City's defense that were on the roster last year are on the roster this year. The same defensive backs that were able to jam the Steelers receivers at the line of scrimmage, then turn and run with them down the field last season, are still on the roster. Last season, the Steelers couldn't get anything going on the ground, then tried to pass their way out of it. When that failed, they hung on for dear life and narrowly defeated a Chiefs team that started Tyler Palko at quarterback.
Despite all that, I still think the Steelers are going to roll on Monday.
- They shouldn't struggle running the ball, which should give them balance on offense. It will also give them the ability to neutralize Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, who are the only two guys they have to fear when Ben Roethlisberger drops back to pass.
- Since Bruce Arians is not calling the plays, the "dink and dunk" passes that Todd Haley has been calling should make it tough for Kansas City to pressure Roethlisberger and help him get into a rhythm early.
- Dwayne Bowe does not scare me and I think Ike Taylor matches up with him very well. I don't think Bowe is going to win this game for the Chiefs.
- Jamaal Charles is the wild card. He could take over the game like he did in New Orleans earlier this season and pull Kansas City out of Suckville. However, I don't see that happening. He's not getting the ball as much as he used to and, even when he has gotten the ball, he hasn't done much with the opportunities.
Even if Charles does explode on Monday night, I think the Steelers will be able to score enough to offset that. Actually, considering the fact that I'm starting Charles on two of my fantasy teams, him having a huge game wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. Again, even if he does, I don't think the Chiefs have enough to win at Heinz Field.
They have too much to overcome. Now, in last week's preview, I said that the Steelers had too much to overcome to beat the Giants (facing a really good team, on the road, emotional situation, they'd been under performing on the road), and the Steelers ended up winning. This situation is different, though, because Kansas City would need to overcome the fact that they're just not very good. That's too much for any team to overcome in a normal situation, nonetheless playing on the road against a team that's on a roll like the Steelers, who will be pumped up in prime time in front of a home crowd.
But... something like 150 yards and two touchdowns for Charles? I think that would be just fine.
Prediction:
Steelers 34, Chiefs 17
Wednesday, November 07, 2012
Pick Em Week 10
(For Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)
Welcome to what was almost the most boring week of picks this season. Until Keller lost his mind towards the end of the picks, I thought we'd have the first ever three-way mirror-image picks. But, he didn't let us down. The main game that concerns me is the Atlanta one. They have to lose sometime, and the Saints need a big win. They might shock us all. It's a gut feeling, but not nearly enough to make any of us pick them in this match-up.
Now, as much as I kid Keller, his two contrary picks can't be faulted. Neither game is favored by even 2 full points, so it could go either way. It's a coin flip, so take your chances.
How about that? Three different locks this week. That's never happened before. But hey, all three games are smart money picks - and here's why:
Lock of the Week (Keller): New England over Buffalo (take any spread under 17.5 and the Over): 45-21. The Greatriots are coming off a bye and the Bills are coming back to Earth. This is the time of year when New England pads their point differential by beating up on overmatched AFC East teams and Buffalo starts to... well, look like Buffalo. The trajectories of the two teams are meeting at just the right time for my Lock of the Week and exactly the wrong time for the Buffalo Bills. I really wanted to take the Steelers this week, but I have a sinking Tyler Palko Game feeling about Monday night. Things look like they're lining up too well for Pittsburgh, they usually play to the level of their opponent, and they might be looking ahead to two games against the hated Ravens in the next three weeks. That's what I like to refer as a bunch of bad converging trajectories, so I'm going with Coach Hoodie and Tom Terrific.
Lock of the Week (Weidman):San Fran over St Louis (Take the under and the points): I coulda picked New England. I coulda picked Pittsburgh. Hell, I coulda gotten a real degree in college - a lot of things coulda happened, but they didn't and I picked San Fran. This game has all the hallmarks of Games That Screw Weidman. Seriously - everything says San Fran, which means they're probably going to go all Hindenburg on me...but they shouldn't. San Fran has only lost 9 turnovers this season, and STL has only forced two. And, in the other direction, SF's D is solid. Turnovers win games. Cliches are cliches for a reason. The Niners are rested and continuing a win streak. The Rams are on a mission of suck.
Oh, and did I mention the Rams haven't won in San Fran since Jericho was still on the air?
Lock of the Week (Forty): Pittsburgh over Kansas City 32-10 (Take the under, even though it's 43, and the Steelers should be able to handle a 11.5 spread.) I would guess this is the game Weidman and Keller will also go with for their locks {Nope. -Weidman}, but you really can't find a better lock on the schedule, although San Francisco vs. St. Louis and New England vs. Buffalo are close. The Chiefs are inept on both sides of the ball and are, by far, the worst team in the NFL this season. The Steelers showed a touch of their old dominant self in last week's game again the Giants. Despite the emotion involved for New York and bad calls in the first half, Pittsburgh rallied. Roethlisberger is much more likely to take the pressure of a high profile Monday night game and flourish, as opposed to Matt Cassel. The basic story here is that the Steelers are starting to peak in the second half of the season while the Chiefs show no signs of life on either side of the ball.
Meet the "Experts":
Brad "QBERT" Keller is
the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones
is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative
approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding
angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and
handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's
anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts
that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No
problem. Because he has a foolproof system.
"Arena" Weidman's
prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a
decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of
this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but
that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted
follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is
colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions
on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals
should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has
trouble with the field being way too big.
Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned
his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old
man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but
there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe
memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He
feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a
2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super
Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins,
to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't
beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble
something about Franco Harris and walk away.
Welcome to what was almost the most boring week of picks this season. Until Keller lost his mind towards the end of the picks, I thought we'd have the first ever three-way mirror-image picks. But, he didn't let us down. The main game that concerns me is the Atlanta one. They have to lose sometime, and the Saints need a big win. They might shock us all. It's a gut feeling, but not nearly enough to make any of us pick them in this match-up.
Now, as much as I kid Keller, his two contrary picks can't be faulted. Neither game is favored by even 2 full points, so it could go either way. It's a coin flip, so take your chances.
How about that? Three different locks this week. That's never happened before. But hey, all three games are smart money picks - and here's why:
Lock of the Week (Keller): New England over Buffalo (take any spread under 17.5 and the Over): 45-21. The Greatriots are coming off a bye and the Bills are coming back to Earth. This is the time of year when New England pads their point differential by beating up on overmatched AFC East teams and Buffalo starts to... well, look like Buffalo. The trajectories of the two teams are meeting at just the right time for my Lock of the Week and exactly the wrong time for the Buffalo Bills. I really wanted to take the Steelers this week, but I have a sinking Tyler Palko Game feeling about Monday night. Things look like they're lining up too well for Pittsburgh, they usually play to the level of their opponent, and they might be looking ahead to two games against the hated Ravens in the next three weeks. That's what I like to refer as a bunch of bad converging trajectories, so I'm going with Coach Hoodie and Tom Terrific.
Lock of the Week (Weidman):San Fran over St Louis (Take the under and the points): I coulda picked New England. I coulda picked Pittsburgh. Hell, I coulda gotten a real degree in college - a lot of things coulda happened, but they didn't and I picked San Fran. This game has all the hallmarks of Games That Screw Weidman. Seriously - everything says San Fran, which means they're probably going to go all Hindenburg on me...but they shouldn't. San Fran has only lost 9 turnovers this season, and STL has only forced two. And, in the other direction, SF's D is solid. Turnovers win games. Cliches are cliches for a reason. The Niners are rested and continuing a win streak. The Rams are on a mission of suck.
Oh, and did I mention the Rams haven't won in San Fran since Jericho was still on the air?
Lock of the Week (Forty): Pittsburgh over Kansas City 32-10 (Take the under, even though it's 43, and the Steelers should be able to handle a 11.5 spread.) I would guess this is the game Weidman and Keller will also go with for their locks {Nope. -Weidman}, but you really can't find a better lock on the schedule, although San Francisco vs. St. Louis and New England vs. Buffalo are close. The Chiefs are inept on both sides of the ball and are, by far, the worst team in the NFL this season. The Steelers showed a touch of their old dominant self in last week's game again the Giants. Despite the emotion involved for New York and bad calls in the first half, Pittsburgh rallied. Roethlisberger is much more likely to take the pressure of a high profile Monday night game and flourish, as opposed to Matt Cassel. The basic story here is that the Steelers are starting to peak in the second half of the season while the Chiefs show no signs of life on either side of the ball.
Meet the "Experts":
Brad "QBERT" Keller is
the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones
is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative
approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding
angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and
handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's
anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts
that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No
problem. Because he has a foolproof system."Arena" Weidman's
prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a
decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of
this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but
that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted
follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is
colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions
on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals
should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has
trouble with the field being way too big.Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned
his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old
man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but
there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe
memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He
feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a
2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super
Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins,
to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't
beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble
something about Franco Harris and walk away.Monday, November 05, 2012
Good News and Bad News: Steelers at New York Giants
Well, I guess they did overcome, despite the fact that I didn't think there was any way that they could. That's the best news of all. They overcame an emotionally charged, extremely talented Giants team on the road. They overcame scheduling issues, a ten point fourth quarter deficit, some very questionable officiating calls in the first half, and an incredibly foolish decision to fake a field goal instead of going for the points (more on this in the "bad news" section.)
Aside from the fake field goal debacle, special teams actually came up huge in this game. They out-gained the Giants 249-100 on punt and kick returns, Suisham converted his only field goal attempt, Drew Butler didn't have any of his punts returned, dropping two of four inside the 20, and there were no holding or block in the back penalties. This was the first solid effort from the kicking game all season and I hope they build on this success the rest of the season, even if Antonio Brown misses significant time due to his ankle injury.
They dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Isaac Redman averaged 5.7 yards per carry and New York's backs averaged only 3.1. Andre Brown and Ahmad Bradshaw are both quality players and keeping them to 68 yards on 22 carries is a huge win. Eli Manning completed less than half of his passes for 125 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. The Steelers also managed to sack him twice, which is quite an accomplishment. Not only had the struggled to bring down opposing quarterbacks thus far this season, Eli had only been sacked seven times in eight games coming into Sunday.
Victor Cruz was targeted 11 times and only caught five passes for 67 yards and no touchdowns. Hopefully, that means that Ike Taylor is at least close to his 2011 regular season form and he's left the nightmares of the playoff game at Denver and the early season behind him. Keenan Lewis had two huge penalties called on him (don't agree with the first one that went for 41 yards and set up the touchdown, but whatever), but I thought he played a great game. He was pretty much everywhere, as was Lawrence Timmons. Cortez Allen is vastly improved and LaMarr Woodley is starting to step out of James Harrison's shadow to become the focus of the pass rush.
They had a ten minute edge in time of possession, ran 69 plays to 48 for the Giants, were 6 for 13 on third down and New York was 2 for 10. If you add in kick return yards and subtract penalty yards, they out-gained the Giants 479-242.
Even though the offensive line is still struggling in pass protection -- four sacks and a forced fumble returned for a touchdown on 34 dropbacks -- they're blowing up huge holes on the inside and Foster, Pouncey, and Colon deserve all the credit for that. Paulson and Heath, as well as fullback David Johnson deserve a pat on the back as well.
It was a huge road win, a huge confidence boost, and they deserve a lot of credit for overcoming everything they overcame to pull out the victory. It was the most complete game they've played in all phases thus far this season.
Bad news is that they only won by four points.
All the stats I quoted earlier would point to at least a ten point margin of victory, if not two touchdowns. Ike Taylor let an interception slip through his fingers in the end zone, though it would've been called back on the shoulder-to-arm penalty called on Ryan Clark.
Sure, the Giants scored a defensive touchdown and that's going to tilt things in terms of stats. Yes, the two pass interference penalties on Lewis were each for 40+ yards. Those were all big plays and New York made them.
The Steelers were also 2 for 4 in the red zone -- a problem area for them all year -- and they had three drives that started in Giants territory, but yielded zero points. As they move into the second half of the season, they're going to need to improve their efficiency in the red zone and cut down on penalties.
They appear to have gelled along the offensive line and should be at least good in that area if not great, so long as they can avoid injuries. As much as I hate to agree with Phil Simms, he made a great point about the defense yesterday: They're finally starting to get healthy and a lot of their key players are returning to their old form. Woodley has hopefully put his hamstring issues behind him. Harrison's knee is improving. Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel look like they're at 100%. Larry Foote has been solid. It looks like these two huge problem areas -- consistency on defense and along the offensive line -- are at least no longer problem areas and may even be turning into strengths.
They just need to keep finishing games, put the ball in the end zone when they get inside the 20, and avoid dumb penalties.
It's also concerning me that Mike Tomlin is "going with his gut" a little too much. The fake field goal was a dumb idea. Having Suisham try a 90 yard field goal in Tennessee was a dumb idea. Going for two in Cincy was a dumb idea. Fortunately, only one of those bad calls has cost the Steelers a game.
If he wanted to go for the throat and score a touchdown -- or at least a new set of downs -- he should've just handed the ball to Redman and taken his chances. Redman averaged 5.7 yards per carry and gained 90 yards after first contact in yesterday's game. Give him the ball and see what happens. You have a much better chance of a running back that's primary responsibility is taking the ball and running with it gaining a foot and a half than you do pitching it to an awkward Canadian that usually just kicks the ball and watches other people make a play.
Then there's the fact that the kicker is seven yards behind the line of scrimmage when the ball is snapped. He has to make up those seven yards before he gets to a point where he's actually gaining anything. Weidman actually called the fake field goal and I thought he was a crazy person. Turns out, both he and Tomlin were crazy.
Now, I love Mike Tomlin and I can never stay mad at him. The decision didn't cost them the game and we all need to move on. I'm just concerned that, moving forward, Tomlin's gut is going to cost us a game that's much bigger than this one. He had his issues in Super Bowl XLV, he'll have his issues again. His gut will write checks that the Steelers can't cash. I just hope it doesn't come up wrong in a critical point in a bigger game.
But, HEY, the important thing is that they just scored a huge victory -- a game that I had penciled in as a loss at the beginning of the season -- and they appear to be on the right track, headed in the right direction.
Aside from the fake field goal debacle, special teams actually came up huge in this game. They out-gained the Giants 249-100 on punt and kick returns, Suisham converted his only field goal attempt, Drew Butler didn't have any of his punts returned, dropping two of four inside the 20, and there were no holding or block in the back penalties. This was the first solid effort from the kicking game all season and I hope they build on this success the rest of the season, even if Antonio Brown misses significant time due to his ankle injury.
They dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Isaac Redman averaged 5.7 yards per carry and New York's backs averaged only 3.1. Andre Brown and Ahmad Bradshaw are both quality players and keeping them to 68 yards on 22 carries is a huge win. Eli Manning completed less than half of his passes for 125 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. The Steelers also managed to sack him twice, which is quite an accomplishment. Not only had the struggled to bring down opposing quarterbacks thus far this season, Eli had only been sacked seven times in eight games coming into Sunday.
Victor Cruz was targeted 11 times and only caught five passes for 67 yards and no touchdowns. Hopefully, that means that Ike Taylor is at least close to his 2011 regular season form and he's left the nightmares of the playoff game at Denver and the early season behind him. Keenan Lewis had two huge penalties called on him (don't agree with the first one that went for 41 yards and set up the touchdown, but whatever), but I thought he played a great game. He was pretty much everywhere, as was Lawrence Timmons. Cortez Allen is vastly improved and LaMarr Woodley is starting to step out of James Harrison's shadow to become the focus of the pass rush.
They had a ten minute edge in time of possession, ran 69 plays to 48 for the Giants, were 6 for 13 on third down and New York was 2 for 10. If you add in kick return yards and subtract penalty yards, they out-gained the Giants 479-242.
Even though the offensive line is still struggling in pass protection -- four sacks and a forced fumble returned for a touchdown on 34 dropbacks -- they're blowing up huge holes on the inside and Foster, Pouncey, and Colon deserve all the credit for that. Paulson and Heath, as well as fullback David Johnson deserve a pat on the back as well.
It was a huge road win, a huge confidence boost, and they deserve a lot of credit for overcoming everything they overcame to pull out the victory. It was the most complete game they've played in all phases thus far this season.
Bad news is that they only won by four points.
All the stats I quoted earlier would point to at least a ten point margin of victory, if not two touchdowns. Ike Taylor let an interception slip through his fingers in the end zone, though it would've been called back on the shoulder-to-arm penalty called on Ryan Clark.
Sure, the Giants scored a defensive touchdown and that's going to tilt things in terms of stats. Yes, the two pass interference penalties on Lewis were each for 40+ yards. Those were all big plays and New York made them.
The Steelers were also 2 for 4 in the red zone -- a problem area for them all year -- and they had three drives that started in Giants territory, but yielded zero points. As they move into the second half of the season, they're going to need to improve their efficiency in the red zone and cut down on penalties.
They appear to have gelled along the offensive line and should be at least good in that area if not great, so long as they can avoid injuries. As much as I hate to agree with Phil Simms, he made a great point about the defense yesterday: They're finally starting to get healthy and a lot of their key players are returning to their old form. Woodley has hopefully put his hamstring issues behind him. Harrison's knee is improving. Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel look like they're at 100%. Larry Foote has been solid. It looks like these two huge problem areas -- consistency on defense and along the offensive line -- are at least no longer problem areas and may even be turning into strengths.
They just need to keep finishing games, put the ball in the end zone when they get inside the 20, and avoid dumb penalties.
It's also concerning me that Mike Tomlin is "going with his gut" a little too much. The fake field goal was a dumb idea. Having Suisham try a 90 yard field goal in Tennessee was a dumb idea. Going for two in Cincy was a dumb idea. Fortunately, only one of those bad calls has cost the Steelers a game.
If he wanted to go for the throat and score a touchdown -- or at least a new set of downs -- he should've just handed the ball to Redman and taken his chances. Redman averaged 5.7 yards per carry and gained 90 yards after first contact in yesterday's game. Give him the ball and see what happens. You have a much better chance of a running back that's primary responsibility is taking the ball and running with it gaining a foot and a half than you do pitching it to an awkward Canadian that usually just kicks the ball and watches other people make a play.
Then there's the fact that the kicker is seven yards behind the line of scrimmage when the ball is snapped. He has to make up those seven yards before he gets to a point where he's actually gaining anything. Weidman actually called the fake field goal and I thought he was a crazy person. Turns out, both he and Tomlin were crazy.
Now, I love Mike Tomlin and I can never stay mad at him. The decision didn't cost them the game and we all need to move on. I'm just concerned that, moving forward, Tomlin's gut is going to cost us a game that's much bigger than this one. He had his issues in Super Bowl XLV, he'll have his issues again. His gut will write checks that the Steelers can't cash. I just hope it doesn't come up wrong in a critical point in a bigger game.
But, HEY, the important thing is that they just scored a huge victory -- a game that I had penciled in as a loss at the beginning of the season -- and they appear to be on the right track, headed in the right direction.
Friday, November 02, 2012
We Shall Not Overcome: Steelers at Giants Preview
Ultimately, this game boils down to what Weidman said in NFL Pick Em this week:
"The simple fact is, no matter how good the Steelers looked last week, they've sucked on the road this year. Furthermore, the Giants will be playing for their city this week in post-crisis time. Finally, the Giants are really, really good."
If you want more words than that, I've included them below, but I think the Steelers have too much to overcome in this game to win it.
They need to overcome:
In order to overcome everything they're up against, they need at least two of these four things to happen:
I had remembered that as a close game that they could've won, but really shouldn't have. The Giants won 21-14 and James Harrison snapped a ball out of the end zone, working as the reserve long snapper on the punt team. These are two stable organizations, so the personnel were basically the same as they are today.
Then I actually looked at the box score for that game and realized, dear God, how did the Giants not win by at least two touchdowns. I also realized that, aside from some guys on defense and the quarterbacks, the personnel on both sides of the ball are vastly different. Mewelde Moore was the leading rusher for the Steelers, Nate Washington was the leading receiver, and Limas Sweed caught three passes. The three starting receivers for the Giants were Steve Smith, Plaxico Burress, and Amani Toomer. So... what a difference four years makes. Yikes.
Looking back on that game also made me realize that the 2008 version of the Steeler defense was one for the ages. Four interceptions and a safety by the offense, four drives that started in Steeler territory (including two inside the Steeler 30), and they only allowed 21 points against the defending champs. Impressive stuff, even if they didn't force any turnovers of their own.
The present is of no comfort to me and neither is the past, which makes the future look very, very scary, especially Sunday's game. I just don't think they have it this week.
Prediction:
Giants 27, Steelers 13
"The simple fact is, no matter how good the Steelers looked last week, they've sucked on the road this year. Furthermore, the Giants will be playing for their city this week in post-crisis time. Finally, the Giants are really, really good."
If you want more words than that, I've included them below, but I think the Steelers have too much to overcome in this game to win it.
They need to overcome:
- Injuries. Mendenhall and Dwyer probably won't suit up, which means the back field will be Redman and Batch, which isn't good enough to beat a very talented Giants team. They'll need to be able to run the ball and run it effectively to win and I don't think they'll be able to do that with the guys they have available. Troy isn't playing, Gilbert will miss another game, Woodley and Ryan Clark are probable, but will probably be slowed down by their ailments. Without Troy and Clark to cover the back end and with Woodley not 100% to help James Harrison get to Eli Manning, Victor Cruz and company might have a really big day (provided Ike Taylor doesn't have another huge game).
- The Giants are playing for their city and their fans.
- New York has a lot of players who are good at football.
- With all the issues surrounding Hurricane Sandy and lodging, the Steelers are flying out for the game on Sunday morning. Football players are very routine oriented and anything that messes with their routines messes with them.
In order to overcome everything they're up against, they need at least two of these four things to happen:
- Run the ball effectively. Already mentioned I don't think this will happen.
- Force at least two turnovers. They've forced seven turnovers in seven games, though the Giants aren't especially good at protecting the ball, with eight interceptions and six fumbles (three lost) in eight games.
- Get to Eli. They have only 12 sacks in seven games and Manning has only been sacked seven times in eight games.
- Get a big boost from special teams. I think we can all agree this isn't going to happen. If it does, there will be a holding penalty and a celebration penalty on Antonio Brown or Chris Rainey.
I had remembered that as a close game that they could've won, but really shouldn't have. The Giants won 21-14 and James Harrison snapped a ball out of the end zone, working as the reserve long snapper on the punt team. These are two stable organizations, so the personnel were basically the same as they are today.
Then I actually looked at the box score for that game and realized, dear God, how did the Giants not win by at least two touchdowns. I also realized that, aside from some guys on defense and the quarterbacks, the personnel on both sides of the ball are vastly different. Mewelde Moore was the leading rusher for the Steelers, Nate Washington was the leading receiver, and Limas Sweed caught three passes. The three starting receivers for the Giants were Steve Smith, Plaxico Burress, and Amani Toomer. So... what a difference four years makes. Yikes.
Looking back on that game also made me realize that the 2008 version of the Steeler defense was one for the ages. Four interceptions and a safety by the offense, four drives that started in Steeler territory (including two inside the Steeler 30), and they only allowed 21 points against the defending champs. Impressive stuff, even if they didn't force any turnovers of their own.
The present is of no comfort to me and neither is the past, which makes the future look very, very scary, especially Sunday's game. I just don't think they have it this week.
Prediction:
Giants 27, Steelers 13
Thursday, November 01, 2012
Pick Em Week 9
(For Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)
Once again, we had a solid week of picks last week (well, Forty and I did. Keller was respectable) and Forty clung to his slim lead. Depending on how his Crazy Ivans work out, that could change. In fact, if he tanks, the rankings will skew in a totally awesome Weidman-like direction.
As the locks will show below, the big-name games are Green Bay/AZ and Houton/Buffalo. Both should be blow-outs and either is a safe bet.
Unfortunately, we all felt the need to pick against the Steelers this week. Assuming the game happens as scheduled (stupid Sandy), then it promises to be the marquee game this week. It's one of the arguably best teams in the league against one of the most popular teams in the league. The simple fact is, no matter how good the Steelers looked last week, they've sucked on the road this year. Furthermore, the Giants will be playing for their city this week in post-crisis time. Finally, the Giants are really, really good.
Oh, look - Forty Crazy Ivan'd the lock of the week as well. It's a bold strategy.
Lock of the Week (Keller): Green Bay (-11.5) over Arizona: 24-14, so take the points and the under: I damn near took the Texans over the Bills (same line, dominant home team playing against a reeling opponent), but there's something I don't trust about that game. I am just suspicious enough with both those teams coming off a bye and not knowing what to expect out of Buffalo's offense. I will take Aaron Rodgers at home and that defense -- especially now that they've had a week to adjust to the fact that Charles Woodson is out -- against the ineffective Cardinals. If Arizona's defense made Alex Smith look like Joe Montana, how good are they going to make Rodgers look? I mean, I still have this feeling that the Cardinals have just enough pride left that they'll fight to keep it close, but there's only so much that Arizona pride and Green Bay malaise can do to prevent the inevitable. Either Jordy Nelson or Greg Jennings comes back this week and the offense starts to hum again. They won't hum to the tune of 45 points or anything, but they'll hum well enough to get the job done. That's what they did last week and I got the Lock Bonus and that's good enough for me.
Lock of the Week (Weidman): Green Bay over Arizona. Points and over.
You know all that stuff you've heard about Arizona this season, about how dangerous they are and how they're a sleeper pick to go all the way? Yeah, me either. You know how everyone's kinda forgotten about Brett and embraced this new Rodgers guy? Yeah, me too. Simple fact is, the Pack is going to be a contender as long as they have Rodgers leading the squad he's got, and the Cards are always going to be an "also ran" as long as they are content to be known as Steelers West and not The Arizona Cardinals.
Lock of the Week (Forty): Houston over Buffalo 28-17 (I'd be leery of the 11.5 point spread and the 47 point over.) There's a lot of games I feel pretty confident about this week and two certain locks. Green Bay vs. Arizona would seem like the safer pick, but they had their hands full with Jacksonville last week. Maybe they should have activated Don Majowski. Some people have shied away from Houston after their Sunday night loss against the Packers, but they righted the ship with a dominant performance against the reeling Ravens last week. Houston is a talented team, but young and might not be ready for prime time. A 1 p.m. game against a team in shambles like Buffalo they should have no problem with. Many predicted Buffalo to be the surprise team coming out of the AFC East in preseason, but that accolade seems to now be with the Miami Dolphins. The Bills were just edged by the Titans last week after beating Arizona the week before. However, the Bills are 27th in the NFP power rankings and have the worst defense in the NFL, a title they took away from Jacksonville who had it last week. Hmm...and Jacksonville did give Green Bay trouble like I said. Ah, forget it, go Texans!
Meet the "Experts":
Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system."Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)