Friday, November 02, 2012

We Shall Not Overcome: Steelers at Giants Preview

Ultimately, this game boils down to what Weidman said in NFL Pick Em this week:

"The simple fact is, no matter how good the Steelers looked last week, they've sucked on the road this year.  Furthermore, the Giants will be playing for their city this week in post-crisis time.   Finally, the Giants are really, really good."

If you want more words than that, I've included them below, but I think the Steelers have too much to overcome in this game to win it.

They need to overcome:
  1. Injuries.  Mendenhall and Dwyer probably won't suit up, which means the back field will be Redman and Batch, which isn't good enough to beat a very talented Giants team.  They'll need to be able to run the ball and run it effectively to win and I don't think they'll be able to do that with the guys they have available.  Troy isn't playing, Gilbert will miss another game, Woodley and Ryan Clark are probable, but will probably be slowed down by their ailments.  Without Troy and Clark to cover the back end and with Woodley not 100% to help James Harrison get to Eli Manning, Victor Cruz and company might have a really big day (provided Ike Taylor doesn't have another huge game).
  2. The Giants are playing for their city and their fans.
  3. New York has a lot of players who are good at football.
  4. With all the issues surrounding Hurricane Sandy and lodging, the Steelers are flying out for the game on Sunday morning.  Football players are very routine oriented and anything that messes with their routines messes with them.
They're also playing on the road, where they've sucked pretty bad this year (yeah, I know Weidman already mentioned that, but if you're here, you want more words.)

In order to overcome everything they're up against, they need at least two of these four things to happen:
  1. Run the ball effectively.  Already mentioned I don't think this will happen.
  2. Force at least two turnovers.  They've forced seven turnovers in seven games, though the Giants aren't especially good at protecting the ball, with eight interceptions and six fumbles (three lost) in eight games.
  3. Get to Eli.  They have only 12 sacks in seven games and Manning has only been sacked seven times in eight games.
  4. Get a big boost from special teams.  I think we can all agree this isn't going to happen.  If it does, there will be a holding penalty and a celebration penalty on Antonio Brown or Chris Rainey.
When I first started thinking about this game, it reminded me of the Giants-Steelers game from 2008.  The Giants were the defending champs, the Steelers came into the game with a bunch of injuries (Fast Willie, Troy, key offensive linemen), and New York was on a roll at 6-1, with the Steelers looking to make a statement at 5-1, following an important road victory over the Bengals.

I had remembered that as a close game that they could've won, but really shouldn't have.  The Giants won 21-14 and James Harrison snapped a ball out of the end zone, working as the reserve long snapper on the punt team.  These are two stable organizations, so the personnel were basically the same as they are today.

Then I actually looked at the box score for that game and realized, dear God, how did the Giants not win by at least two touchdowns.  I also realized that, aside from some guys on defense and the quarterbacks, the personnel on both sides of the ball are vastly different.   Mewelde Moore was the leading rusher for the Steelers, Nate Washington was the leading receiver, and Limas Sweed caught three passes.  The three starting receivers for the Giants were Steve Smith, Plaxico Burress, and Amani Toomer.  So... what a difference four years makes.  Yikes.

Looking back on that game also made me realize that the 2008 version of the Steeler defense was one for the ages.  Four interceptions and a safety by the offense, four drives that started in Steeler territory (including two inside the Steeler 30), and they only allowed 21 points against the defending champs.  Impressive stuff, even if they didn't force any turnovers of their own.

The present is of no comfort to me and neither is the past, which makes the future look very, very scary, especially Sunday's game.  I just don't think they have it this week.

Prediction:
Giants 27, Steelers 13 

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