I've said all along that the Pens would have underachieved had they not won the East. Coming into the playoffs, I had a really good handle on how they matched up against other teams in the Eastern conference, but really no idea how they matched up against anyone in the West, given the fact that the shortened season eliminated inter-conference play. The only thing I knew for sure was this: Whoever the Pens had to face in the Eastern portion of the bracket, the odds and matchups were in their favor to win the series.
I believed that against the Islanders and the Senators and I believe it in the Eastern Conference Final against the Boston Bruins.
Like most of the teams in this side of the bracket, the Pens finished the season with a winning record against the Bruins, going 3-0-0 and winning three one goal games. Now, the fact that all three games were close means that they were anyone's games. But, you can't discount the fact that the Pens also won all three close games, because this figures to be a tight series.
Neither team has a huge name at goal tender, but Tuukku Rask is certainly more well-regarded and has more raw talent than Tomas Vokoun. Then again, Marc-Andre Fleury has more renown and athletic ability than Vokoun and look where the two netminders stand at this point. Fleury is officially Vokoun's backup and will only come in if the Bruins chase Vokoun or if it looks like the series is on the brink and Vokoun has lost his edge (like what happened against the Islanders and would've happened against the Flyers last year, had the Pens possessed two viable options at goal tender). And, realistically, I don't think that Vokoun is going to get rattled enough that he loses the starting job.
He's not as flashy or exciting as Fleury, but he's extremely consistent. The Pens don't need a guy with a high ceiling as long as he also has a high floor. The Flower has has a high ceiling, but he also has a pretty low floor. If the Pens can get competent, consistent goal tending, then they'll be able to score enough goals and protect their goal tender with their skilled defensemen enough that they don't need a guy like Jonathan Quick (who is amazing, BTW, and you should totally watch the Hawks-Kings series).
Vokoun has earned at least one mulligan. You can't fault him for the double overtime loss against Ottawa and that's been his only loss since he came in. He's been making the easy saves, making the vast majority of the tough saves, and hasn't let in any headscratchers. If he can keep that up, I think that's more than sufficient from here on out.
Now, that's not to say I'm in love with the guy, but we're going to have to face facts here. Regardless of who the Pens have in at goal the rest of the way, the other team is going to have the advantage at goal tender. That's more praise for Quick, Rask, and Corey Crawford than it is a knock on Vokoun or Flower. Thing is, I think the Pens can get past any goal tender if they get enough chances. I think they can wear anyone down -- they sure dismantled a fantastic goalie like Craig Anderson in pretty short order -- and I think they have the talent and tenacity on offense to chase anyone out of the net. I know that's a bold statement, but that's how much confidence I have in this offense.
Boston has an edge between the pipes and the Pens have an edge on offense, but I don't think it's a huge edge. The Bruins can get hot and score goals in bunches. They have four solid lines -- their fourth line in particular has been on fire since the playoffs started -- and their top line is the second best in hockey (after Kunitz-Crosby-Dupuis). Their second and third lines don't match up as well against the Pens as their first and fourth -- especially if Jussi, Kennedy, Morrow, and Cooke continue to play about as well as they have -- but Boston has a ton of depth and can get on you in a hurry; just ask Toronto.
The difference in this series, for me, is defense and special teams.
Zdeno Chara can handle anyone and getting Dennis Seidenberg back is a big deal for the Bruins, but other than those two guys, they have a bunch of warm bodies and rookie overachievers (this is assuming Andrew Ference doesn't see any significant time until Game 3 or 4). Chara and Seidenberg will either wear down or not be on the ice and guys like Torey Krug, Dougie Hamilton, and Pittsburgh's own Matt Bartkowski will come down to earth. The defensemen for Boston have played well in the first two rounds, especially considering the injuries they've had to contend with. But, if you took the best guys from Toronto and New York and made four lines out of them, you still wouldn't have four lines as good as what the Pens have been rolling with since the trade deadline. The Bruins defensemen just haven't had to match up against this level of talent thus far in the playoffs and they're going to come back down to earth (hard) once they have to.
On the other hand, the Pens are now rolling with their full complement of defensemen and they have guys that can skate and score (Kris Letang, Paul Martin, and Simon Despres), an enforcer with some scoring upside in Doug Murray, and a couple guys who can do a little bit of everything in Brooks Orpik and Mark Eaton. And, they're deep, so I feel comfortable with Engelland or Niskanen -- or any of the combinations they've played during the course of the playoffs, because all these guys have seen time -- in the event that anyone goes down. They have a ton of options and can play a bunch of different ways, even switching combinations and styles when they do line changes. That flexibility -- which they're only just starting to take advantage of, since there were so many injuries throughout the course of the season -- makes this a very balanced and capable defense.
On special teams, Boston can't give the Pens more than three chances a game if they want to win this series. The power play for the Penguins is just too potent and, regardless of how good your penalty kill is, it's extremely difficult to shut them out on any given night. Since goals will probably be flowing pretty freely, you don't want to give the Pens a stick to hit you with. The biggest stick they have is that power play, particularly since James Neal appears to have found his scoring stroke back. With Letang running point and Neal and Iginla sniping away from either side, then you add in Kunitz and/or Crosby and Malkin... that's just a deadly PP unit right there. When you add in the fact that the Penguins are also very good at drawing penalties -- note that I didn't say diving, because they've really gotten away from that -- and it's a lethal combination. You pretty much have to pick your poison. It'll be interesting to see what strategy Boston goes with: Whether they'll let the Pens skate free and trust Rask to make a bunch of killer saves or if they'll clutch, hold, and slash in the hopes that the officials won't call anything this deep in the playoffs, dealing with the daunting task of killing a bunch of penalties if that strategy backfires.
In case I haven't made this abundantly clear, the Bruins are a great team. The Pittsburgh Penguins are just better and they have a number of key advantages over Boston. I think the Pens are feeling it now and they're incredibly focused on the prize. When you take the talent that they have and add in determination, focus, and desperation, that's a dangerous team right there. I think that it's possible that the Blackhawks could beat them in a seven game series at this point, but I don't see anyone else with the horses and the intangibles to match up.
If Boston can get all four of their lines rolling, if their young defensemen continue to play at the high level they've been playing, and if Rask only has one game where he gets overpowered and overwhelmed and if the Bruins can stay out of the penalty box, they can win this series.
But... that's a whole lot of "ifs" and too many for my blood.
Prediction:
Pens in 6
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