I stalled on this one for two reasons. First, I had to turn in my picks for our new Pick Em series. Second, I really wasn't sure what to write, aside from, "The Steelers really, really should win this game."
So, the Steelers really, really should win this game.
I don't think that Seattle is a horrible team and, even if they're a west coast team playing at 1 p.m. Eastern time on the road, I don't think that they're that much worse than the Steelers. The line for this game opened at 16, which is fairly insane. I think enough people took advantage of that crazy line and it eventually moved to 14. But, then I guess enough crazy, drunken Steeler fans saw that as easy money and it moved back to 15. I think that 15 is just as crazy a line.
Don't get me wrong, I believe the Steelers will definitely win on Sunday. I just don't think they'll win by 15. I could see a ten point victory or even two touchdowns, but they'd need a 31-14 or 31-13 win and I don't think the offense is ready to score that many points. After all, who would be dumb enough to predict a 31-13 final?
You can talk all you want about talent on defense and the potential the Steelers have on offense. You can talk about how Tavarris Jackson is a dreadful, dreadful quarterback and Ben Roethlisberger is a top-five guy, but the fact remains that Jackson had a higher passer rating in Week 1 than Roethlisberger. The Seahawks actually played a solid defensive game against the 49ers last week, they just played absolutely crappy special teams. This could be a close game or even a Seattle win if the Steelers turn the ball over seven times or they have a couple of meltdowns on special teams.
Having said that, I also picked the Steelers in my NFL Survivor Pool this week, so I still think they're going to win.
When you play as badly as the Steelers did against the hated Ravens in Week 1, you have a long list of things to fix. It would be naive to think that all those issues could suddenly be resolved in the space of seven days, just because our guys are "mad and determined" and their guys are "not very good." Our guys are mad and determined and their guys aren't very good, but that doesn't mean this turns into a blowout. This week and next week are all about getting a little bit better each time, rounding into regular season form, and hopefully picking up a couple of victories in the process.
Seattle may be a force in few years because they have a lot of youth and a lot of talent. Currently, their coach is Pete Carroll and their quarterback is Tavarris Jackson, so I can't say they scare me.
In addition, this game gives Marcus Gilbert an opportunity to ease into the starting right tackle job. The Steelers talked to Flozell Adams after Willie Colon went on injured reserve, but Adams was asking for the sky. They signed some dude named Jamon Meredith for insurance, but, in the end, they did what they always do: They went in-house. I think that's the right move. Meredith would be a plug-in guy and Adams would be an extremely expensive band aid. Maybe Colon comes back next year and plays well, or maybe he's discovered to be too fragile to be depended upon. If he can't be depended upon, then the Steelers would be stuck in the same situation going into camp next year that they were this year: Adams is old and expensive and isn't the future.
When the Steelers drafted Gilbert, I originally thought he'd be a great fit at right tackle. I had also assumed that Max Starks -- another big guy that played left tackle at Florida and needed to make the transition to the right side -- would be able to work with Gilbert and keep him from making the same mistakes Starks made. Well, Starks got cut, Gilbert was hurt early in training camp, then he spent all of his time at left tackle. Adams made a pretty smooth transition to the right side and that was after a lifetime of playing left tackle. Gilbert should need less time, but more attention, since he's doesn't have to unlearn as many left tackle habits, but he needs to be trained on how to play right tackle.
Gilbert is a good move for now and for the future. But, I'm also thinking that he'll need some time and attention, which is why it's good that he didn't have to jump in and make his first start at right tackle against the hated Ravens or Patriots. He gets this week to get his feet wet and get settled, then he has Robert Mathis next week. I hope he's ready.
Prediction:
Steelers 27, Seahawks 17
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Office Pool Pick 'Em
This is the magical time of year where the real games seem too take a back seat to the fake games played in offices around the country: Fantasy football and office pick 'ems. When my sister-in-law asked me to help her with her picks for her weekly office pool, it occurred to me that she's not alone in looking for guidance.
Thing is, it's really a crapshoot.
What everyone from Coach, Dan, Shannon and Boomer, to the woman at the front desk who picks based on who has the prettier jerseys (and frustratingly, usually wins) doesn't want you to know is that anyone can win on any given Sunday and no one really knows how it's going to turn out. Someone should fit that into a movie. If this stuff was easy, we'd all just bet the line every week and rack up lots of fake money in MyBookie - and, frankly, that's what makes it so much fun.
What Keller and I decided to do was to give all of our readers out there two sets of picks for their office pools each week based on our methods. Keller, with his quarterback ratings, point-spreads, Vegas lines, conference records, scouting reports and weekly analysis...And me, with my basis of which team has players on my fantasy team (guaranteeing a loss) and which team is more likely to hate Ray Lewis. (Look, there's a reason I usually write for Arena Football.)
We're going to give you our picks and keep a running tally here each week (So bookmark this page!) Given the Rule of Secretaries, we've got equal chances of being right. Digging deep, we've put $50 on the line - a sum that exceeds the total annual budget of Steelers 'N At by...well, $50 - and the winner at the end of the season takes all.
We didn't start this last week for the following, scientific reason:
Weidman's Picks, Week 2.............................................Keller's Picks, Week 2
Weidman's Picks, Week 3.....................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 3
Thing is, it's really a crapshoot.
What everyone from Coach, Dan, Shannon and Boomer, to the woman at the front desk who picks based on who has the prettier jerseys (and frustratingly, usually wins) doesn't want you to know is that anyone can win on any given Sunday and no one really knows how it's going to turn out. Someone should fit that into a movie. If this stuff was easy, we'd all just bet the line every week and rack up lots of fake money in MyBookie - and, frankly, that's what makes it so much fun.
What Keller and I decided to do was to give all of our readers out there two sets of picks for their office pools each week based on our methods. Keller, with his quarterback ratings, point-spreads, Vegas lines, conference records, scouting reports and weekly analysis...And me, with my basis of which team has players on my fantasy team (guaranteeing a loss) and which team is more likely to hate Ray Lewis. (Look, there's a reason I usually write for Arena Football.)
We're going to give you our picks and keep a running tally here each week (So bookmark this page!) Given the Rule of Secretaries, we've got equal chances of being right. Digging deep, we've put $50 on the line - a sum that exceeds the total annual budget of Steelers 'N At by...well, $50 - and the winner at the end of the season takes all.
We didn't start this last week for the following, scientific reason:
- We didn't think of it.
Weidman's Picks, Week 2.............................................Keller's Picks, Week 2
Weidman's Picks, Week 3.....................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 3
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Keller's Picks, Week 2
In deciding my picks each week, I follow these rules:
- It's a quarterback-driven league at this point. With that in mind, I have invented a new quarterback metric: QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) Index. I thought the name of the metric would immediately discount my credibility, but I think it's funny, so I'll keep it. It is a number between 1 and 100 that indicates how good I think I particular quarterback is from week to week (highest score wins). I also think that it adds to my credibility that I have enough general football knowledge that I don't need to Google Bert Jones to get the joke. Just in case, here's some perspective.
- When in doubt, pick the home team. According to Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ), the home team finished 157-110 last season, with a winning percentage of .610. That means you have a pretty good statistical probability of picking the right team if you just choose the home team.
- Would I bet the team to win outright, regardless of spread? Most pick 'em leagues are win/loss and don't factor the spread. That's what my predictions and Weidman's predictions assume. If you'd bet on them to win outright, why not pick them to win in your pick 'em?
Seattle at Steelers
The line is Steelers by 15, so I feel comfortable picking them outright. No matter how bad Ben Roethlisberger was last week, he's still gotta have a better QBERT rating than Tavaris Jackson's -8. Seahawks are a west coast team and kickoff will be at 10 a.m. their time.
Kansas City at Detroit
Matthew Stafford or Matt Cassel? Tough call. The Chiefs looked horrible against the Bills last week and Detroit looked pretty good against Tampa, but they're still the Lions. Hard to say. When in doubt, pick the home team.
Cleveland at Indianapolis
I think that, if Andy Dalton can beat this team, Kerry Collins can beat this team. I mean... it's Cleveland.
Baltimore at Tennessee
The hated Ravens are a possible letdown candidate in this one, especially since it's on the road. However, Matt Hasselbeck's squad got beat by a shoddy Jacksonville team last week that was quarterbacked by Josh McCown. McCown had been the starting quarterback for less time than I let food sit in my fridge, and I'm pretty anal about that. Maybe Baltimore squeaks one out, but they win.
Oakland at Buffalo
Sit back and think about this: Are you comfortable with the phrase, "2-0 Oakland Raiders"? Neither am I.
Arizona at Washington
I don't trust Rex Grossman, but I trust him enough to exploit a Steelers West defense that allowed 422 passing yards to Cam Newton in his first ever NFL start. I think he'll get enough done (at home) to beat the Cardinals.
Tampa at Minnesota
The Bucs are good enough to win this game and the Vikings are bad enough to blow it. I don't care if Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin are really good players. This team passed for 28 yards against the Chargers last week. I'll take Josh Freeman over a washed up Donovan McNabb any week, including this one.
Jacksonville at Jets
I know New York barely escaped the Cowboys last week, but they also played like crap in Week 1 last season and turned things around in short order. Then, you have the aforementioned Luke McCown facing a Rex Ryan defense on the road in his second week as a starter. Too much for the Jags to overcome.
Chicago at New Orleans
Can't bet against the Saints at home coming off a tough loss to the Packers on opening night. The Bears looked awfully good against the Falcons last week, but Drew Brees looked awfully good against a Packers defense that's better than the Chicago defense he will face this week. On the other side, you have turnover machine Jay Cutler. I hate Jay Cutler's face. That swings it as much as anything.
Green Bay at Carolina
Aaron Rodgers has a permanent QBERT score of 95, until that changes. That beats Cam Newton and the rebuilding Panthers, even on the road.
Dallas at San Francisco
I know Tony Romo looked lost against the Jets, but can you really take Alex Smith over him? Even with Ted Ginn accounting for 98% of the 49ers total yards? I sure can't.
Cincinnati at Denver
Hey, the Broncos lost to the Raiders and the Raiders are a mess, but so are the Bengals. Actually, the Raiders are a mess and the Bengals are like one of those old ladies on Hoarders that has six dozen dead mice buried under back issues of Reader's Digest in her bedroom. Also, Denver is at home and they're especially tough at Mile High in the early parts of the season.
San Diego at New England
Tom Brady earned a 99 QBERT score on Monday night this week, even against a Miami defense that looked lost and overwhelmed. When Brady is comfortable, he's unbeatable. When he's tested, he breaks down. I think that the Chargers -- who held the Vikings to 28 yards passing last week and had the number one defense in the NFL last season -- will test Brady. San Diego matches up well against the Patriots and they have a number of fast, talented athletes on both sides of the ball.
Houston at Miami
I mentioned that the Patriots burned an overwhelmed Dolphins team on Monday night, right? Did I mention that the Texans have a talented group of receivers and Matt Schaub at quarterback? Well, consider it mentioned. I honestly believe that Miami has a better defense than they showed last week and that will become evident on Sunday, but I still think that it won't be enough.
Philadelphia at Atlanta
I almost was in doubt on this one and took the Falcons on this one. Then I remembered that the Atlanta defense can't tackle and they face some of the most elusive players in the NFL this week in LeSean McCoy, Michael Vick, and DeSean Jackson. Eagles win in a shoot-out.
St. Louis at Giants
Both teams are banged up. I think the Rams are a sneaky team this year and someone has to win the NFC West. But, the Giants are at home. They rallied against the Redskins last week, despite injuries, but ultimately came up short. I would also take a healthy Eli Manning over a wounded Sam Bradford.
Summary:
Steelers over Seahawks
Detroit over Kansas City
Indianapolis over Cleveland
Baltimore over Tennessee
Buffalo over Oakland
Washington over Arizona
Tampa over Minnesota
Jets over Jacksonville
New Orleans over Chicago
Green Bay over Carolina
Dallas over San Francisco
Denver over Cincinnati
San Diego over New England
Houston over Miami
Philadelphia over Atlanta
Giants over St. Louis
Weidman's Picks, Week 2
Seattle vs. Steelers
This one's easy for me - Steelers win this one, no problem. Not only are they favored, but Seattle's got a very young roster. Sure, that worked against us vs the Ravens, but in the case of Seattle, young = inexperienced. There are only 2 players or so still on the team from when we met up in the Super Bowl. Despite this, they're still not over it and the same ref is going to be in this game - so there will be tempers on their side of the line and a wishy-washy ref. However, I don't think that it will cause that much of a problem.
Kansas City vs. Detroit
The Lions suck now, they sucked then and they're gonna suck for the foreseeable. Don't waste your money and don't waste your time.
Cleveland vs. Indianapolis
This one's a little harder to call. Indy is feeling the loss of Manning and they had a real rough time of it last week. However, Cleveland is still Cleveland and lost by a hair to Cincy - another team I don't think much of.
Baltimore vs. Tennessee
Ravens are coming off an absolute thwumping of their most hated team in the history of ever last week. They're going to be swaggering ten-feet tall and feeling no pain. I see them parlaying that into another win this week. Difficulty: Cockiness and being on the road.
Oakland vs. Buffalo
What can I say? I grew up in upstate New York and I can't stand Oakland. Oakland is favored, but not by much. It's a home game for the Bills, and they stomped the Chiefs last week. I'm a little more concerned about them being cocky than the Ravens, but I see them pulling off the W.
Arizona vs. Washington
Both had equal scores and almost equal quarterback stats last week, but I'm going to go with Steelers West. I have to go with the better quarterback, or at least, the more comfortable one. Grossman is new to the team and there's just something about him that I'm not sure of.
Tampa Bay vs. Minnesota
I don't really have a dog in this fight. When in doubt, bet the line, which is a bare +3 for the Bucs. McNabb's looking shaky and that could make all the difference.
Jacksonville vs. NY Jets
I'd really like to say Jets, but...no. Jacksonville is a heavy favorite in this game, and I always hate when we have to play them (home or away.) They're one of the few teams that Tomlin has a losing record against, and we're better than the Jets.
Chicago vs. New Orleans
Chicago, no question. NOLA had its time in the sun, and they had a hell of a season opener against Green Bay, but I just don't have confidence in the team. The Bears are still Da Bears. Pick 'em.
Green Bay vs. Carolina
I'm going to buck the trend again here and pick the heavy underdog Pack. Home openers after a Super Bowl are hard to judge on. You're amped after a huge win, the crowd is eff'in nuts, the spotlight is on you and the season is just starting - however, they were just too solid to ignore. This is a risky pick, because Carolina is really, really good and GB is on the road - but I still take the Pack.
Dallas vs. San Fran
San Fran's not great, Dallas isn't looking good...it's a tough call. If you want to bet the line, go with the Niners, but I think Dallas has this one by a hair.
Cincinnati vs. Denver
Did Homer Simpson ever own the Bungles? No. I can't say much about Cincie, but I can say that they're going to squeak out a slim win over the Broncos.
San Diego vs. New England
I don't care that the Chargers are favored by a touchdown - never bet against Brady. I can't stand him, I can't stand the Pats and I can't stand their coach's stupid wardrobe, but they get results.
Houston vs. Miami
See the other game involving Florida. Bet the line and stay safe. Miami with a slight lead.
Philly vs. Atlanta
Atlanta only has a +1 pt advantage in this game, which might as well be a dead heat. This isn't the Gladiators vs the Power where it's going to come down to someone missing a PAT. Vick was a man with a plan last week, and he's going to his old stomping grounds. I won't bet against a QB facing his old team, and I'm not ready to bet against Vick at all right now.
St Louis vs. NY Giants
The Rams have the better team but only just. Based on last week's performance, it's not a Monday Night game that I'm excited about, but it's still MNF. Take the Rams by this >< much
Summary:
Steelers over Seattle
Kansas City over Detroit
Indianapolis over Cleveland
Baltimore over Tennessee
Buffalo over Oakland
Arizona over Washington
Tampa Bay over Minnesota
Jacksonville over NY Jets
Chicago over New Orleans
Green Bay over Carolina
Dallas over San Fran
Cincinnati over Denver
New England over San Diego
Miami over Houston
Philly over Atlanta
St Louis over NY Giants
This one's easy for me - Steelers win this one, no problem. Not only are they favored, but Seattle's got a very young roster. Sure, that worked against us vs the Ravens, but in the case of Seattle, young = inexperienced. There are only 2 players or so still on the team from when we met up in the Super Bowl. Despite this, they're still not over it and the same ref is going to be in this game - so there will be tempers on their side of the line and a wishy-washy ref. However, I don't think that it will cause that much of a problem.
Kansas City vs. Detroit
The Lions suck now, they sucked then and they're gonna suck for the foreseeable. Don't waste your money and don't waste your time.
Cleveland vs. Indianapolis
This one's a little harder to call. Indy is feeling the loss of Manning and they had a real rough time of it last week. However, Cleveland is still Cleveland and lost by a hair to Cincy - another team I don't think much of.
Baltimore vs. Tennessee
Ravens are coming off an absolute thwumping of their most hated team in the history of ever last week. They're going to be swaggering ten-feet tall and feeling no pain. I see them parlaying that into another win this week. Difficulty: Cockiness and being on the road.
Oakland vs. Buffalo
What can I say? I grew up in upstate New York and I can't stand Oakland. Oakland is favored, but not by much. It's a home game for the Bills, and they stomped the Chiefs last week. I'm a little more concerned about them being cocky than the Ravens, but I see them pulling off the W.
Arizona vs. Washington
Both had equal scores and almost equal quarterback stats last week, but I'm going to go with Steelers West. I have to go with the better quarterback, or at least, the more comfortable one. Grossman is new to the team and there's just something about him that I'm not sure of.
Tampa Bay vs. Minnesota
I don't really have a dog in this fight. When in doubt, bet the line, which is a bare +3 for the Bucs. McNabb's looking shaky and that could make all the difference.
Jacksonville vs. NY Jets
I'd really like to say Jets, but...no. Jacksonville is a heavy favorite in this game, and I always hate when we have to play them (home or away.) They're one of the few teams that Tomlin has a losing record against, and we're better than the Jets.
Chicago vs. New Orleans
Chicago, no question. NOLA had its time in the sun, and they had a hell of a season opener against Green Bay, but I just don't have confidence in the team. The Bears are still Da Bears. Pick 'em.
Green Bay vs. Carolina
I'm going to buck the trend again here and pick the heavy underdog Pack. Home openers after a Super Bowl are hard to judge on. You're amped after a huge win, the crowd is eff'in nuts, the spotlight is on you and the season is just starting - however, they were just too solid to ignore. This is a risky pick, because Carolina is really, really good and GB is on the road - but I still take the Pack.
Dallas vs. San Fran
San Fran's not great, Dallas isn't looking good...it's a tough call. If you want to bet the line, go with the Niners, but I think Dallas has this one by a hair.
Cincinnati vs. Denver
Did Homer Simpson ever own the Bungles? No. I can't say much about Cincie, but I can say that they're going to squeak out a slim win over the Broncos.
San Diego vs. New England
I don't care that the Chargers are favored by a touchdown - never bet against Brady. I can't stand him, I can't stand the Pats and I can't stand their coach's stupid wardrobe, but they get results.
Houston vs. Miami
See the other game involving Florida. Bet the line and stay safe. Miami with a slight lead.
Philly vs. Atlanta
Atlanta only has a +1 pt advantage in this game, which might as well be a dead heat. This isn't the Gladiators vs the Power where it's going to come down to someone missing a PAT. Vick was a man with a plan last week, and he's going to his old stomping grounds. I won't bet against a QB facing his old team, and I'm not ready to bet against Vick at all right now.
St Louis vs. NY Giants
The Rams have the better team but only just. Based on last week's performance, it's not a Monday Night game that I'm excited about, but it's still MNF. Take the Rams by this >< much
Summary:
Steelers over Seattle
Kansas City over Detroit
Indianapolis over Cleveland
Baltimore over Tennessee
Buffalo over Oakland
Arizona over Washington
Tampa Bay over Minnesota
Jacksonville over NY Jets
Chicago over New Orleans
Green Bay over Carolina
Dallas over San Fran
Cincinnati over Denver
New England over San Diego
Miami over Houston
Philly over Atlanta
St Louis over NY Giants
Monday, September 12, 2011
Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Hated Ravens
As far as good news is concerned, there isn't much to report:
It's only one game and this is no time to panic. They're not going to turn the ball over seven times in a game again this season. Baltimore has a really good team and they played almost flawlessly yesterday. The Steelers looked like a big pile of steaming crap, no doubt, but a big part of that was that the hated Ravens played exceptionally well.
The offensive line will play better. In general, it would be difficult for the team to play much worse, so they will all play better in the next 15 games. It will probably be several years before we see Roethlisberger play another stinker like that.
The pass rush will improve; playing against a much crappier team like the Seahawks or Manning-less Colts will help that along.
As I see it, the primary issue with the defense yesterday was that they were out of position for most of the game. That made them have to hustle into position to get to the play. When they got in position, they weren't able to square up and tackle. This is responsible for two issues: The fact that they looked really slow and old and the fact that their tackling fundamentals were atrocious.
Pretty much everyone looks slow and old when they're chasing after Ray Rice. Additionally, chasing guys down all day wears you out and makes you move even slower. In previous seasons, LeBeau was able to insulate his guys from this by setting it out so that the play was always in front of them. They were behind the play and doing a lot of chasing because the hated Ravens ran a lot of plays outside the hashmarks and most of the defense was jammed up in the middle of the field. I'm sure the defense will be more spread out on Sunday against Seattle. I'm sure the focus will be on getting to the quarterback and keeping everything in front of them.
McFadden does not get a pass on this. You don't let Anquan Boldin get behind you if you give him a seven yard cushion at the snap. That should never happen.
The other good news is that the Steelers know they have a lot of stuff they need to fix. They may be able to fix everything by the time they play the Seahawks, but the other other good news is that they probably don't need to fix everything until they play Houston in Week 4, since they should be able to beat Seattle and the Colts without being 100% together.
And, hey, this also means that the Steelers will be the ones out for revenge come November.
- I have Mike Wallace on my fantasy team, so that's at least something.
- As my buddy Dan pointed out earlier today, we don't have to carry the stress of an undefeated season hanging over our heads. We can relax in the knowledge that the Steelers are going to go 16-0 this season and we don't have to worry about it every week.
- According to NFL bylaws, the Steelers will only be given one loss for yesterday's performance, instead of the three or four losses that they deserve. That means that they're only 0-1 and there's a lot of season left to be played.
- Ike Taylor looked good and effectively took Lee Evans out of the game.
- The offensive line played pretty crappy.
- Ben Roethlisberger got abused and was still in the game late in the fourth quarter, even though there was no chance for a comeback.
- Rashard Mendenhall looked really tentative heading into the hole after that bumbled exchange/fumble in the third quarter. He started out pretty strong, but the hated Ravens took him out of the game in the fourth quarter since the Steelers had to start throwing every down.
- Seven turnovers.
- Looks like Willie Colon got hurt. Again. So that's awesome.
- The defense might have looked younger and more active had 74 year old Dick LeBeau thrown on some pads and ran out on to the field.
- Bryant McFadden -- who I've defended in the past -- looked awful and the Steelers really need to think about getting Keenan Lewis or William Gay in there.
- The Baltimore players were awfully proud of themselves after the game, which means they might not shut up about this victory until the Steelers play the hated Ravens again in November.
- My horribly, horribly misguided Preview will be on the Internet forever.
- The biggest thing I got wrong in that Preview was that the hated Ravens were very, very ready for this game and the Steelers were absolutely not ready.
- There were a lot of things that went wrong yesterday, but the biggest thing that concerned me was the way Baltimore blew the Steelers off the line on both sides of the ball. Sure, it is possible that the guys on defense are older and slower, but they didn't get any smaller or weaker with age. On offense, the line should have an advantage (I guess that's just in theory) because they know where they're supposed to go at the snap. The defense shouldn't be able to jump to the ball faster than the offense because (again, in theory, since this isn't what we saw yesterday) they're supposed to be reacting and shouldn't know what's coming.
It's only one game and this is no time to panic. They're not going to turn the ball over seven times in a game again this season. Baltimore has a really good team and they played almost flawlessly yesterday. The Steelers looked like a big pile of steaming crap, no doubt, but a big part of that was that the hated Ravens played exceptionally well.
The offensive line will play better. In general, it would be difficult for the team to play much worse, so they will all play better in the next 15 games. It will probably be several years before we see Roethlisberger play another stinker like that.
The pass rush will improve; playing against a much crappier team like the Seahawks or Manning-less Colts will help that along.
As I see it, the primary issue with the defense yesterday was that they were out of position for most of the game. That made them have to hustle into position to get to the play. When they got in position, they weren't able to square up and tackle. This is responsible for two issues: The fact that they looked really slow and old and the fact that their tackling fundamentals were atrocious.
Pretty much everyone looks slow and old when they're chasing after Ray Rice. Additionally, chasing guys down all day wears you out and makes you move even slower. In previous seasons, LeBeau was able to insulate his guys from this by setting it out so that the play was always in front of them. They were behind the play and doing a lot of chasing because the hated Ravens ran a lot of plays outside the hashmarks and most of the defense was jammed up in the middle of the field. I'm sure the defense will be more spread out on Sunday against Seattle. I'm sure the focus will be on getting to the quarterback and keeping everything in front of them.
McFadden does not get a pass on this. You don't let Anquan Boldin get behind you if you give him a seven yard cushion at the snap. That should never happen.
The other good news is that the Steelers know they have a lot of stuff they need to fix. They may be able to fix everything by the time they play the Seahawks, but the other other good news is that they probably don't need to fix everything until they play Houston in Week 4, since they should be able to beat Seattle and the Colts without being 100% together.
And, hey, this also means that the Steelers will be the ones out for revenge come November.
Friday, September 09, 2011
Finally Football: Steelers at Hated Ravens Preview
At some point Thursday morning, I convinced myself that the Steelers were going to blow the hated Ravens out (win by at least two touchdowns). I spent a lot of time between then and now trying to convince myself that it was a really, really dumb idea to think that.
I have been unsuccessful in being convincing enough to unconvince myself. Therefore, I'm going to talk about why the Steelers will trounce Baltimore on Sunday.
The biggest reason is the fact that I think I overrated the hated Ravens. I think that, even though I hate them more than any other professional sports team, I also respect and admire them. I think that respect and admiration -- as well as all the positive press that has been flying around about them -- clouded my judgment. The simple fact of the matter is that the hated Ravens are limited on both sides of the ball.
They have Ray Rice on offense and Rice is a fantastic player. Aside from Rice, they have Lee Evans, who hasn't been relevant in some time, and Anquan Boldin, who caught all of 64 passes last year. I think that Joe Flacco is a good quarterback. At times he is a great quarterback. His problem is that the Steelers make him look average.
On defense, they're very similar to the Steelers in that they have a lot of talent in the front seven, an outstanding safety, and marginal cornerbacks. This means they're vulnerable in the secondary if the front seven doesn't get enough pressure. That's the basic weakness of the Steeler defense, but the big difference is that Dick LeBeau seems to have successfully coached his cornerbacks to the point where they realize their limitations and don't take risks. I don't see that with the Baltimore cornerbacks. That means that they are vulnerable deep, which is where the Steelers like to throw the ball. The Steelers have also shown a tendency in the preseason -- and have mentioned in interviews -- that they think they have the talent on offense to throw the ball a lot and score a bunch of points.
If you take a defense that struggles when it doesn't get pressure (hated Ravens posted only 27 sacks in 2010), add marginal cornerbacks that gamble too much, and put them up against an offense that will throw the ball a lot and likes to throw deep, it's a bad combination for that defense. When you couple that with an offense that doesn't have much firepower that is run by a quarterback that struggles against the Steelers, you get a blowout.
Also, I keep thinking about the season opener in 2003. The Steelers tuned up a high-powered offense in the preseason and hosted the hated Ravens at Heinz Field. Everyone was expecting a tight, hard-hitting game, with very little scoring and a high quantity of three yards and a pile of dust. Instead, Baltimore got smoked 34-15. You could tell by watching that game that the Steelers were ready for the season to start and the hated Ravens were not.
In last night's game, you could tell that the Saints and Packers were ready for the season to start. I think the Steelers are ready for the season to start. I think the hated Ravens have added just the right number of new faces that they're not ready. I think the Steelers will be a half step faster -- like they were in 2003 -- and they'll score quickly, like they did in 2003. The hated Ravens will then start to overcompensate, because this is a bigger game for them (home game, they probably circled this game in April when the schedule came out, they've been looking to get past the Steelers since 2008). The cornerbacks are going to start to gamble, the safeties will start to cheat, and we'll have the same situation as in 2003, where the hated Ravens made Jay Freakin' Riemersma look like an all-star.
It's entirely possible that I'm an idiot and it would not be the first time that I was proven to be horribly, horribly wrong. It's very possible that the Steelers will not be ready for the blitz -- even though they must know it's coming -- just like they weren't ready against the Saints last season. Ray Rice could take over this game all by himself.
It's just my opinion that the hated Ravens aren't ready to make that happen just yet.
Prediction:
Steelers 31, Hated Ravens 13
I have been unsuccessful in being convincing enough to unconvince myself. Therefore, I'm going to talk about why the Steelers will trounce Baltimore on Sunday.
The biggest reason is the fact that I think I overrated the hated Ravens. I think that, even though I hate them more than any other professional sports team, I also respect and admire them. I think that respect and admiration -- as well as all the positive press that has been flying around about them -- clouded my judgment. The simple fact of the matter is that the hated Ravens are limited on both sides of the ball.
They have Ray Rice on offense and Rice is a fantastic player. Aside from Rice, they have Lee Evans, who hasn't been relevant in some time, and Anquan Boldin, who caught all of 64 passes last year. I think that Joe Flacco is a good quarterback. At times he is a great quarterback. His problem is that the Steelers make him look average.
On defense, they're very similar to the Steelers in that they have a lot of talent in the front seven, an outstanding safety, and marginal cornerbacks. This means they're vulnerable in the secondary if the front seven doesn't get enough pressure. That's the basic weakness of the Steeler defense, but the big difference is that Dick LeBeau seems to have successfully coached his cornerbacks to the point where they realize their limitations and don't take risks. I don't see that with the Baltimore cornerbacks. That means that they are vulnerable deep, which is where the Steelers like to throw the ball. The Steelers have also shown a tendency in the preseason -- and have mentioned in interviews -- that they think they have the talent on offense to throw the ball a lot and score a bunch of points.
If you take a defense that struggles when it doesn't get pressure (hated Ravens posted only 27 sacks in 2010), add marginal cornerbacks that gamble too much, and put them up against an offense that will throw the ball a lot and likes to throw deep, it's a bad combination for that defense. When you couple that with an offense that doesn't have much firepower that is run by a quarterback that struggles against the Steelers, you get a blowout.
Also, I keep thinking about the season opener in 2003. The Steelers tuned up a high-powered offense in the preseason and hosted the hated Ravens at Heinz Field. Everyone was expecting a tight, hard-hitting game, with very little scoring and a high quantity of three yards and a pile of dust. Instead, Baltimore got smoked 34-15. You could tell by watching that game that the Steelers were ready for the season to start and the hated Ravens were not.
In last night's game, you could tell that the Saints and Packers were ready for the season to start. I think the Steelers are ready for the season to start. I think the hated Ravens have added just the right number of new faces that they're not ready. I think the Steelers will be a half step faster -- like they were in 2003 -- and they'll score quickly, like they did in 2003. The hated Ravens will then start to overcompensate, because this is a bigger game for them (home game, they probably circled this game in April when the schedule came out, they've been looking to get past the Steelers since 2008). The cornerbacks are going to start to gamble, the safeties will start to cheat, and we'll have the same situation as in 2003, where the hated Ravens made Jay Freakin' Riemersma look like an all-star.
It's entirely possible that I'm an idiot and it would not be the first time that I was proven to be horribly, horribly wrong. It's very possible that the Steelers will not be ready for the blitz -- even though they must know it's coming -- just like they weren't ready against the Saints last season. Ray Rice could take over this game all by himself.
It's just my opinion that the hated Ravens aren't ready to make that happen just yet.
Prediction:
Steelers 31, Hated Ravens 13
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
AFC North Preview
As I see it, this division breaks down to a couple of two-team races.
The Bengals and Browns are battling for third place, with the loser finishing last. The Steelers and hated Ravens are battling for first place, with the loser finishing second.
As far as the first "race" is concerned, I think the Browns finish on top. They seem more together, they have more talent, and they have a better owner. Also, they have the cross-state rivalry with the Bengals and the one-sided rivalry with the Steelers. The games are far more important to them than they are to the other team. They're more important to the fans -- who still exist in Cleveland, which is surprising -- and the fans will show up, with a number of Browns faithful probably making the trip to Cincinnati for a road game.
Everyone in the AFC North gets to play the same, cushy schedule against the NFC West and the AFC South, which, for the time being, is minus Peyton Manning and has two rebuilding teams in the Titans and the Jaguars. The two teams on the bottom half of the standings could take advantage of the soft schedule and bring the general record of the division up in the process. But... there will probably be some Cardinals-Browns and 49ers-Bengals games later in the season that are only relevant for fantasy purposes.
For the other race in the division, that is a more complicated question. Since the start of the 2008 season -- the beginning of the John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco Era -- the hated Ravens are 32-16 and the Steelers are 33-15. (Side Note: Given John Harbaugh's success, at what point do we start referring to Jim Harbaugh as "John Harbaugh's Brother"? Jim will, no doubt, crash and burn in San Francisco as a former college coach moving to a broken franchise with weak owners. Once Jim starts to fail, this movement needs to start.) The Steelers have two division titles and two playoff appearances, the hated Ravens have won zero division titles, but have been to the playoffs three times. Baltimore wants to get to the Super Bowl and the Steelers are in the way. In order to get where they need to get, the hated Ravens need to knock the Steelers out.
When the lockout ended, Baltimore cut Willis McGahee, Kelly Gregg, Todd Heap, and Derrick Mason. I thought that they were purging their roster and starting a rebuilding process. Then I realized that it was 2011 and not 2008 and that the hated Ravens were trying to cut some dead weight. The Steelers effectively lost Flozell Adams and Max Starks, but the offensive line has looked at least equivalent this preseason. The teams are basically even.
It will come down to Joe Flacco versus Ben Roethlisberger this season. History says that we should back Roethlisberger. Flacco did a good job with a marginal receiving corps last season. This season, the team subtracted Mason and added Lee Evans. Their top two guys are Anquan Boldin and Lee Evans. Once again, it's 2011 and not 2008.
I think the Steelers and hated Ravens will beat common opponents and that the Steelers will get the best of Baltimore.
Thus, with a 12-4 record, the Steelers win the division. I think they get the better of the hated Ravens over the course of the season. I think that the difference will be Ben Roethlisberger over Joe Flacco.
For anyone that takes issue with this prediction, I would like to remind you that the name of this blog is "Steelers N At" and not "Ravens Rule, Hon!" I try to remove myself from my fandom as much as possible, but sometimes emotion and team loyalty get in the way.
Official Predictions:
The Bengals and Browns are battling for third place, with the loser finishing last. The Steelers and hated Ravens are battling for first place, with the loser finishing second.
As far as the first "race" is concerned, I think the Browns finish on top. They seem more together, they have more talent, and they have a better owner. Also, they have the cross-state rivalry with the Bengals and the one-sided rivalry with the Steelers. The games are far more important to them than they are to the other team. They're more important to the fans -- who still exist in Cleveland, which is surprising -- and the fans will show up, with a number of Browns faithful probably making the trip to Cincinnati for a road game.
Everyone in the AFC North gets to play the same, cushy schedule against the NFC West and the AFC South, which, for the time being, is minus Peyton Manning and has two rebuilding teams in the Titans and the Jaguars. The two teams on the bottom half of the standings could take advantage of the soft schedule and bring the general record of the division up in the process. But... there will probably be some Cardinals-Browns and 49ers-Bengals games later in the season that are only relevant for fantasy purposes.
For the other race in the division, that is a more complicated question. Since the start of the 2008 season -- the beginning of the John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco Era -- the hated Ravens are 32-16 and the Steelers are 33-15. (Side Note: Given John Harbaugh's success, at what point do we start referring to Jim Harbaugh as "John Harbaugh's Brother"? Jim will, no doubt, crash and burn in San Francisco as a former college coach moving to a broken franchise with weak owners. Once Jim starts to fail, this movement needs to start.) The Steelers have two division titles and two playoff appearances, the hated Ravens have won zero division titles, but have been to the playoffs three times. Baltimore wants to get to the Super Bowl and the Steelers are in the way. In order to get where they need to get, the hated Ravens need to knock the Steelers out.
When the lockout ended, Baltimore cut Willis McGahee, Kelly Gregg, Todd Heap, and Derrick Mason. I thought that they were purging their roster and starting a rebuilding process. Then I realized that it was 2011 and not 2008 and that the hated Ravens were trying to cut some dead weight. The Steelers effectively lost Flozell Adams and Max Starks, but the offensive line has looked at least equivalent this preseason. The teams are basically even.
It will come down to Joe Flacco versus Ben Roethlisberger this season. History says that we should back Roethlisberger. Flacco did a good job with a marginal receiving corps last season. This season, the team subtracted Mason and added Lee Evans. Their top two guys are Anquan Boldin and Lee Evans. Once again, it's 2011 and not 2008.
I think the Steelers and hated Ravens will beat common opponents and that the Steelers will get the best of Baltimore.
Thus, with a 12-4 record, the Steelers win the division. I think they get the better of the hated Ravens over the course of the season. I think that the difference will be Ben Roethlisberger over Joe Flacco.
For anyone that takes issue with this prediction, I would like to remind you that the name of this blog is "Steelers N At" and not "Ravens Rule, Hon!" I try to remove myself from my fandom as much as possible, but sometimes emotion and team loyalty get in the way.
Official Predictions:
- Steelers (12-4)
- Hated Ravens (11-5)
- Cleveland Browns (7-9)
- Bengals (5-11)
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