Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Keller's Picks, Week 2

In deciding my picks each week, I follow these rules:

  1. It's a quarterback-driven league at this point. With that in mind, I have invented a new quarterback metric: QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) Index. I thought the name of the metric would immediately discount my credibility, but I think it's funny, so I'll keep it. It is a number between 1 and 100 that indicates how good I think I particular quarterback is from week to week (highest score wins). I also think that it adds to my credibility that I have enough general football knowledge that I don't need to Google Bert Jones to get the joke. Just in case, here's some perspective.
  2. When in doubt, pick the home team. According to Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ), the home team finished 157-110 last season, with a winning percentage of .610. That means you have a pretty good statistical probability of picking the right team if you just choose the home team.
  3. Would I bet the team to win outright, regardless of spread? Most pick 'em leagues are win/loss and don't factor the spread. That's what my predictions and Weidman's predictions assume. If you'd bet on them to win outright, why not pick them to win in your pick 'em?
Seattle at Steelers
The line is Steelers by 15, so I feel comfortable picking them outright. No matter how bad Ben Roethlisberger was last week, he's still gotta have a better QBERT rating than Tavaris Jackson's -8. Seahawks are a west coast team and kickoff will be at 10 a.m. their time.

Kansas City at Detroit
Matthew Stafford or Matt Cassel? Tough call. The Chiefs looked horrible against the Bills last week and Detroit looked pretty good against Tampa, but they're still the Lions. Hard to say. When in doubt, pick the home team.

Cleveland at Indianapolis
I think that, if Andy Dalton can beat this team, Kerry Collins can beat this team. I mean... it's Cleveland.

Baltimore at Tennessee
The hated Ravens are a possible letdown candidate in this one, especially since it's on the road. However, Matt Hasselbeck's squad got beat by a shoddy Jacksonville team last week that was quarterbacked by Josh McCown. McCown had been the starting quarterback for less time than I let food sit in my fridge, and I'm pretty anal about that. Maybe Baltimore squeaks one out, but they win.

Oakland at Buffalo
Sit back and think about this: Are you comfortable with the phrase, "2-0 Oakland Raiders"? Neither am I.

Arizona at Washington
I don't trust Rex Grossman, but I trust him enough to exploit a Steelers West defense that allowed 422 passing yards to Cam Newton in his first ever NFL start. I think he'll get enough done (at home) to beat the Cardinals.

Tampa at Minnesota
The Bucs are good enough to win this game and the Vikings are bad enough to blow it. I don't care if Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin are really good players. This team passed for 28 yards against the Chargers last week. I'll take Josh Freeman over a washed up Donovan McNabb any week, including this one.

Jacksonville at Jets
I know New York barely escaped the Cowboys last week, but they also played like crap in Week 1 last season and turned things around in short order. Then, you have the aforementioned Luke McCown facing a Rex Ryan defense on the road in his second week as a starter. Too much for the Jags to overcome.

Chicago at New Orleans
Can't bet against the Saints at home coming off a tough loss to the Packers on opening night. The Bears looked awfully good against the Falcons last week, but Drew Brees looked awfully good against a Packers defense that's better than the Chicago defense he will face this week. On the other side, you have turnover machine Jay Cutler. I hate Jay Cutler's face. That swings it as much as anything.

Green Bay at Carolina
Aaron Rodgers has a permanent QBERT score of 95, until that changes. That beats Cam Newton and the rebuilding Panthers, even on the road.

Dallas at San Francisco
I know Tony Romo looked lost against the Jets, but can you really take Alex Smith over him? Even with Ted Ginn accounting for 98% of the 49ers total yards? I sure can't.

Cincinnati at Denver
Hey, the Broncos lost to the Raiders and the Raiders are a mess, but so are the Bengals. Actually, the Raiders are a mess and the Bengals are like one of those old ladies on Hoarders that has six dozen dead mice buried under back issues of Reader's Digest in her bedroom. Also, Denver is at home and they're especially tough at Mile High in the early parts of the season.

San Diego at New England
Tom Brady earned a 99 QBERT score on Monday night this week, even against a Miami defense that looked lost and overwhelmed. When Brady is comfortable, he's unbeatable. When he's tested, he breaks down. I think that the Chargers -- who held the Vikings to 28 yards passing last week and had the number one defense in the NFL last season -- will test Brady. San Diego matches up well against the Patriots and they have a number of fast, talented athletes on both sides of the ball.

Houston at Miami
I mentioned that the Patriots burned an overwhelmed Dolphins team on Monday night, right? Did I mention that the Texans have a talented group of receivers and Matt Schaub at quarterback? Well, consider it mentioned. I honestly believe that Miami has a better defense than they showed last week and that will become evident on Sunday, but I still think that it won't be enough.

Philadelphia at Atlanta
I almost was in doubt on this one and took the Falcons on this one. Then I remembered that the Atlanta defense can't tackle and they face some of the most elusive players in the NFL this week in LeSean McCoy, Michael Vick, and DeSean Jackson. Eagles win in a shoot-out.

St. Louis at Giants
Both teams are banged up. I think the Rams are a sneaky team this year and someone has to win the NFC West. But, the Giants are at home. They rallied against the Redskins last week, despite injuries, but ultimately came up short. I would also take a healthy Eli Manning over a wounded Sam Bradford.

Steelers over Seahawks
Detroit over Kansas City
Indianapolis over Cleveland
Baltimore over Tennessee
Buffalo over Oakland
Washington over Arizona
Tampa over Minnesota
Jets over Jacksonville
New Orleans over Chicago
Green Bay over Carolina
Dallas over San Francisco
Denver over Cincinnati
San Diego over New England
Houston over Miami
Philadelphia over Atlanta
Giants over St. Louis

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