I stalled on this one for two reasons. First, I had to turn in my picks for our new Pick Em series. Second, I really wasn't sure what to write, aside from, "The Steelers really, really should win this game."
So, the Steelers really, really should win this game.
I don't think that Seattle is a horrible team and, even if they're a west coast team playing at 1 p.m. Eastern time on the road, I don't think that they're that much worse than the Steelers. The line for this game opened at 16, which is fairly insane. I think enough people took advantage of that crazy line and it eventually moved to 14. But, then I guess enough crazy, drunken Steeler fans saw that as easy money and it moved back to 15. I think that 15 is just as crazy a line.
Don't get me wrong, I believe the Steelers will definitely win on Sunday. I just don't think they'll win by 15. I could see a ten point victory or even two touchdowns, but they'd need a 31-14 or 31-13 win and I don't think the offense is ready to score that many points. After all, who would be dumb enough to predict a 31-13 final?
You can talk all you want about talent on defense and the potential the Steelers have on offense. You can talk about how Tavarris Jackson is a dreadful, dreadful quarterback and Ben Roethlisberger is a top-five guy, but the fact remains that Jackson had a higher passer rating in Week 1 than Roethlisberger. The Seahawks actually played a solid defensive game against the 49ers last week, they just played absolutely crappy special teams. This could be a close game or even a Seattle win if the Steelers turn the ball over seven times or they have a couple of meltdowns on special teams.
Having said that, I also picked the Steelers in my NFL Survivor Pool this week, so I still think they're going to win.
When you play as badly as the Steelers did against the hated Ravens in Week 1, you have a long list of things to fix. It would be naive to think that all those issues could suddenly be resolved in the space of seven days, just because our guys are "mad and determined" and their guys are "not very good." Our guys are mad and determined and their guys aren't very good, but that doesn't mean this turns into a blowout. This week and next week are all about getting a little bit better each time, rounding into regular season form, and hopefully picking up a couple of victories in the process.
Seattle may be a force in few years because they have a lot of youth and a lot of talent. Currently, their coach is Pete Carroll and their quarterback is Tavarris Jackson, so I can't say they scare me.
In addition, this game gives Marcus Gilbert an opportunity to ease into the starting right tackle job. The Steelers talked to Flozell Adams after Willie Colon went on injured reserve, but Adams was asking for the sky. They signed some dude named Jamon Meredith for insurance, but, in the end, they did what they always do: They went in-house. I think that's the right move. Meredith would be a plug-in guy and Adams would be an extremely expensive band aid. Maybe Colon comes back next year and plays well, or maybe he's discovered to be too fragile to be depended upon. If he can't be depended upon, then the Steelers would be stuck in the same situation going into camp next year that they were this year: Adams is old and expensive and isn't the future.
When the Steelers drafted Gilbert, I originally thought he'd be a great fit at right tackle. I had also assumed that Max Starks -- another big guy that played left tackle at Florida and needed to make the transition to the right side -- would be able to work with Gilbert and keep him from making the same mistakes Starks made. Well, Starks got cut, Gilbert was hurt early in training camp, then he spent all of his time at left tackle. Adams made a pretty smooth transition to the right side and that was after a lifetime of playing left tackle. Gilbert should need less time, but more attention, since he's doesn't have to unlearn as many left tackle habits, but he needs to be trained on how to play right tackle.
Gilbert is a good move for now and for the future. But, I'm also thinking that he'll need some time and attention, which is why it's good that he didn't have to jump in and make his first start at right tackle against the hated Ravens or Patriots. He gets this week to get his feet wet and get settled, then he has Robert Mathis next week. I hope he's ready.
Prediction:
Steelers 27, Seahawks 17
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