Well, so, since the cat is already out of the bag and Weidman and I both picked Houston in this week's Pick Em, I'm going to talk about why I think the Texans will win, then about what the Steelers would need to do to pull off an upset.
The reason I think Houston will win is that they don't need to do anything special to dispatch the Steelers and move to 3-1. In order to win, they need to run a balanced offense and play well enough on defense. They've been able to do both those things thus far this season, aside from their total collapse in the fourth quarter against the Saints in Week 3. They have almost a 50/50 run/pass ratio, they're averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt, and they've held opposing quarterbacks to an 82.1 rating. Now, that's not a great track record on defense, but it's good enough. Also consider the fact that they playing against Drew Brees last week and Brees had three touchdown passes in the final quarter alone.
Texans coach Gary Kubiak knows that his team has an exceptional record when they run the ball 30 times or more in a game. Even if Arian Foster still isn't at 100%, Ben Tate should be a more than sufficient substitute, especially if the Steeler run defense can't get their act together. There was once a time, way back in 2010, when you couldn't run on the Steelers at all, so you didn't even try. You'd take your chances passing the ball every down and hope that you had the talent to light them up and blockers capable enough to keep pass rushers at bay. This season, teams are averaging 4.6 yards per carry against the Steelers. If Houston runs the ball 30 times at 4.6 yards per attempt, that's 138 yards rushing, which will be more than enough to keep the pass defense off balance.
There are two ways to stop a strong pass rush: Run the ball effectively and Block well. There are other, more subtle ways, but those are the most sure-fire ways to keep your quarterback upright. The Texans can do both. Matt Schaub has shown himself to be more than capable. He's playing at home and Houston is looking to bounce back from a humiliating loss to the Saints (just the way the game played out, New Orleans is a good team and there's no real shame in losing to them).
Since they know that they will be able to run the ball effectively, they'll certainly come out and try to run it. Once they start running the ball well and get the Steeler defense back-pedaling, they'll start to throw the ball. They'll have success with that, because their offense will be balanced and the Steelers will be off balance. It will play out much as it did against the hated Ravens, but I don't think the game will get that ugly, primarily because I don't think the Texans will force seven turnovers.
I think the Texans will use a balanced offense to build a comfortable lead and that will be enough of a cushion so that they continue to just play well enough on defense. I just don't think the Steelers have enough on offense to keep up with Houston and they aren't good enough on defense to stop the Texans if they're running the ball well and have that 50/50 ratio working for them.
But, if they can stop Houston from running all over them, then they have a shot. In my opinion, the Texans aren't as loaded in the passing game as everyone seems to think they are. Schaub is a great quarterback, Foster is a very skilled receiver out of the backfield, Andre Johnson is outstanding, and Owen Daniels is one of the better tight ends in the league. Yes, that's a lot of talent and a lot of weapons, but that's pretty much where it stops. Their other receivers -- most notably Kevin Walter, who has gone from, "one of the best #2 receivers in the league," to, "that guy Schaub throws to when the other team triple covers Andre Johnson" -- aren't that great. On top of that, Schaub only completes 56 percent of his passes when the opposing team rushes five or more guys. So, stop the run, blitz the hell out of Schaub, hope for a turnover.
On offense, the Steelers need to run the ball effectively. That doesn't mean they need to run the ball a lot. I'm not looking for Ike Redman and Rashard Mendenhall to get 20 carries each. They just need to do about a yard or a yard and a half better than they the 3.3 yards per carry they've been averaging thus far this season. Since the "Block Well" option probably isn't going to happen, they need to run the ball to keep the pass rush honest. Houston doesn't have a spectacular pass rush -- and they certainly don't have a couple of flying murderballs like Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis -- but they're plenty good enough to sack Ben Roethlisberger if they're allowed to pin their ears back and come running as soon as he says "hut." The offensive line is going to feature two new starters, with Trai Essex in at left tackle and Ramon Foster in at right guard, so they'll need to create that half second of hesitation in the pass rush to have any prayer of protecting Roethlisberger.
The ultimate winning strategy is to keep the game close in the fourth quarter, since the Texans are known choke artists and this is one of the bigger games in the franchise's history. For the Steelers, it's just Game 4 on their 2011 schedule. If Houston doesn't come out and blow the Steelers off the field in the first half and the game stays close late, then the chests of the Texans players will start to tighten. Even at that point, the Steelers will need to make the necessary clutch plays to win the game.
All this means that there is an extremely slim chance that the Steelers get out of Texas with a win.
Prediction:
Texans 30, Steelers 20
No comments:
Post a Comment