Check out the Pick Em Standings (week-by-week and YTD)
This is a critical week for me, because I'm reaching a decision point on two teams: The Washington Redskins and the Atlanta Falcons. I'm trying to figure out of the Skins are real and I'm trying to figure out if the Falcons are not for real. I no longer doubt the Bills, since they proved themselves against the Patriots last week.
That doesn't mean I'm going to pick the teams that are for real every week and pick against the teams that I think aren't for real every week. There are levels of realness and deep calculations that go into the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) rating and they are proprietary. If I released all my secrets, then you wouldn't have to come here every week and see my picks.
Also, we have a few new items in my Pick Em: Line of the Week, Moneyline of the Week, and Over/Under of the Week. I added those in last week and didn't say anything about them, but now we have a sponsor in My Bookie. Play the game on Facebook here. I will be playing the character Mac Winswell. And, to answer your question: Yes, I am that good looking in real life. I can also raise one eyebrow and I occasionally wear glasses, so there you go. We're practically twins, Mac and me.
On to the picks...
Detroit at Dallas:
I think that the Lions are a good team and that they have an excellent chance to make the playoffs. I also think that Dallas is a sneaky-good team and they're playing at home. Jared Allen almost won the game for the Vikings last week, but the Vikings don't have an offense. DeMarcus Ware could take over this game in similar fashion and the Cowboys do have an offense. I trust Tony Romo as long as it isn't January.
New Orleans at Jacksonville:
Drew Brees has a QBERT rating of 87. Blaine Gabbert has a QBERT rating of 7. Moving on.
San Francisco at Philadelphia:
You could almost say that the 49ers would lose this game because they're a West Coast team playing a 1 p.m. game on the East Coast. However, they beat the Bengals in that scenario last week, then organized accommodations near Philly for this week so that they didn't have to go cross country as many times. That being said, Frank Gore may not play and Mike Vick definitely will. The Eagles are favored by nine points and they're angry and back into a corner.
Washington at St. Louis:
I'm starting to trust Rex Grossman. I refuse to trust the Rams offense until Steven Jackson proves that he's 100%. He could prove that this week while he's sitting on my bench in my one fantasy league. The Redskins can either prove they're for real or prove that they got lucky in three close games to open the season, winning two.
Tennessee at Cleveland:
The Browns pass defense is shaky and it looks like Matt Hasselbeck may have to carry this team. No Kenny Britt hurts, but they appear to have thrown the ball just fine against the Broncos last week. The issue with the Titans is the running game. If Chris Johnson doesn't get going soon, Hasselbeck's back will get tired and everyone will fall off. Still... this is Cleveland, who had to struggle to put away a bad Dolphins team last week (where they were also at home).
Buffalo at Cincinnati:
The line on this game is Buffalo by 3, which makes me think that Vegas hasn't been watching much football thus far this year. I understand that, yes, this game has the biggest letdown potential of any game in the last 15 years. But... Andy Dalton is a horrible, horrible quarterback and Cincy will probably struggle to score 17 points, even against a pretty shoddy Bills defense. What are the odds that Buffalo can't put up 20 points, even if they show up totally flat? I say they're not good and the Bills win and cover.
Minnesota at Kansas City:
Trying to pick the winner here is like trying to pick the winner in a three-legged dog race. The law of averages says that one of these teams has to win eventually and I guess the smart money is on the Chiefs going 0-16 this season instead of the Vikings, but the Chiefs play better at Arrowhead and Minnesota sucks something awful. When in doubt, trust the home team.
Carolina at Chicago:
I hate Jay Cutler's face, but I can't get past the fact that the Panthers don't have a good enough pass rush to really wear him down. Cam Netwon also looked pretty human against the craptastic Jaguars last week. Bears are at home, coming off a disappointing division loss to the rival Packers. I think they pull it together for this one, but I don't think they'll run away with it.
Steelers at Houston:
Hate to say it, but I think that's what will happen. That line (Houston by 4) is tricky, though. If they win 28-24 or 21-17, it's a push. I think those are the two most likely score pairings in this game, so bettor beware.
Atlanta at Seattle:
Seahawks play tough at home, they gutted out a tough win against Steelers West last week, and their defense does not suck. The Falcons offense may very well suck, which would doom this team. If they're able to hang a 28-spot on Seattle this weekend, then I'll start believing in them again. I'm thinking they at least win this game, though, so that's why I'm taking the 'Hawks.
NY Giants at Arizona:
I went back and forth on this one until I realized two things: Kevin Kolb knows that he needs to do something to impress the coaches and prove that he's worth what the Cardinals gave up to get him and this game has a huge amount of letdown potential for the Giants. They just had a big win over a division rival, they're on the road, and they've favored. I think they come in overconfident, Arizona jumps out to a big early lead, and time runs out before Eli and company can recover. Also, I don't trust Eli Manning on the road.
Miami at San Diego:
I don't think the Dolphins stand a chance in this one and the line seems just about right, but the Chargers were heavy favorites at home last week and barely snuck by KC. I wouldn't say I'm confident enough in the Chargers to believe they'll for sure cover, but I'm definitely confident enough to say that they'll for sure win.
Denver at Green Bay:
This is my Survivor Pool pick this week. I almost picked this as the Line of the Week. I think the Packers win by at least two touchdowns.
New England at Oakland:
I am starting to believe in the Raiders and I think they have a good, young team that will do well this season, provided that Jason Campbell doesn't completely implode and/or get hurt. I cannot bet against the Patriots in this situation. I think that they're really, really, really mad about last week's loss and I think they will take it out on Oakland, a young team with a bunch of guys that are prematurely starting to believe their press clippings. I think that God will want to teach them some humility. Since Al Davis must have some kind of deal with Satan (only explanation for his longevity), that means God hates the Raiders.
NY Jets at Baltimore:
This should be a great, low-scoring game, which probably means that it will be a great, high-scoring game. That's why I fear the Under in this one. I also think that the hated Ravens will not cover. The Jets talk a big game, but they're more of a December/January team. I just don't think they're ready to win this game yet. Plus which, Ray Rice is better than Shonn Greene, Joe Flacco is better than Mark Sanchez, and the defenses are pretty much a wash. The game is in Baltimore. Too many things going in favor of the hated Ravens.
Indianapolis at Tampa:
I'm not sold on Tampa, but they have enough Josh Freeman mojo to win this game. The Colts are on the road and are probably banged up and exhausted from their tight game against the Steelers last week. Tampa is at home and Curtis Painter has a QBERT rating of 3.6. Having said all that, it's a big line (Tampa by 10) and it'll be tough for this offense to cover a spread like that against a rejuvenated Indy defense.
Line of the Week:
Take Buffalo.I don't think there's a chance in hell they don't cover. I think there's at least some chance that Tampa covers with a defensive touchdown or if the wheels start to come off and the defense gives up in the fourth quarter, so I don't feel as comfortable taking Indy against the spread. The Bills could have a low scoring output (for them) and still beat Cincy by a touchdown.
Moneyline of the Week:
Titans over Browns. It's even money and I think Tennessee is a mortal lock to win. Arizona's odds (+104) aren't attractive enough to take the chance that an NFC West team can beat someone that's not in their division.
Over/Under of the Week:
Redskins at Rams: Take the Under. These are two surprisingly good defenses and two offenses that are still under construction. I wouldn't take the Under if the O/U was 35, but I can definitely see another 18-16 slug fest like we saw on Monday Night Football.
Dallas over Detroit
NOLA over Jacksonville
Philly over San Francisco
Washington over St. Louis
Tennessee over Cleveland
Buffalo over Cincinnati
KC over Minnesota
Chicago over Carolina
Houston over Steelers
Atlanta over Seattle
Arizona over NY Giants
San Diego over Miami
Green Bay over Denver
New England over Oakland
Baltimore over NY Jets
Tampa over Indianapolis
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