Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Keller's Picks, Week 3

Since I dominated last week, with a 12-4 record, I think that it's safe to say I just need to keep on keepin' on and trust my (mostly) infallible system.  I need to make one adjustment, since I have to admit Weidman is right.  Never bet against Tom Brady.

New England at Buffalo:

Never bet against Tom Brady.  The Bills have looked pretty impressive thus far, but they also needed an epic comeback to beat the Oakland Raiders.  This Buffalo team strikes me as one that's good against bad teams, but not quite ready to make the leap and play with the big boys.

Detroit at Minnesota:

The Lions are a team on the rise and they've actually turned things around on the road.  At one point, they had like a three year span where they lost all road games.  Now, I think they're riding a seven game streak.  They beat Tampa on the road in Week 1 and crushed the Chiefs last week.  I don't think they win the division, but they're good enough to beat a bad Vikings team.  They also have enough talent on the defensive line that they should to be able to contain Adrian Peterson for the most part.  That means the game falls on McNabb's shoulders, which is never a good thing.

NY Giants at Philly:

It looks like Mike Vick will play.  But, even if he wasn't going to suit up, I'd still take the Eagles and their cockroach quarterback.  The Giants are cresting the bottom of the, "Guys are starting to get healthy, we just need to hang in there," wave and Philly's guys are hanging ten on the, "Let's rally around the replacement!" wave.  It's a division game and it'll be tough, but I still like the Eagles.

Jacksonville at Carolina:

God help me, I am picking the Panthers.  They're playing at home, where they played the Packers tough last week, and the Jags are welcoming in the Blaine Gabbert Era.  All rookie quarterbacks making their first start have Projected QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) Index of 6.  Cam Newton had one of those, too, he just beat the projection.  I don't think Gabbert does.

San Francisco at Cincinnati:

I'm in doubt.  I'm picking the home team.  Also, the Bungles are 2.5 point favorites.  If you're not in doubt, that looks like a pretty attractive moneyline at +130.

Houston at NOLA:

Texans are 2-0, but they effectively faced two cream puffs.  This just smells like a game they'll blow.  NOLA plays better at home in the dome and blew out a good Bears team last week after narrowly losing to the defending champs on opening in at Lambeau.  I think it's safe to say they're for real.  If Houston beats them in their own house, then Houston is for real.  The Texans are an expansion team, so they cannot be real.

Miami at Cleveland:

I know the Dolphins gave up a kazillion yards in Week 1 against the Patriots, but everyone's giving up a kazillion yards against the Patriots.  I think their defense is sneaky good and underrated.  I think the Browns run defense is susceptible to Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush.  Also, the Dolphins only lose games at home and I feel that it is my duty, as a trained expert, to point out that they are playing the Cleveland Browns.

Denver at Tennessee:

This is my Lock of the Week.  I think the Titans will win and cover, since they're a team that I feel will follow a dominant home performance with a dominant home performance.  Then there's the fact that half of Denver's defensive line is hurt and their run defense sucked to begin with.  I would like to take this opportunity to add that Chris Johnson and Javon Ringer are good players.

Kansas City at San Diego:

The Chiefs lost their best defensive player (Eric Berry) and their best offensive player (Jamaal Charles).  The Chargers are at home and are probably mad that they lost to New England.

Hated Ravens at St. Louis:

I don't think that Baltimore suffers two letdown losses in a row on the road.  If Steven Jackson was 100%, I'd give the Rams a fighting chance.  But, he's not, and they're not a great team.  The hated Ravens, much as I hate to say it and much as their performance in Nashville in Week 2 seems to suggest otherwise, are a great team.

NY Jets at Oakland:

Hey, so, the Jets played a team last week in Jacksonville that has a questionable quarterback, a great running back, and a bunch of athletic receivers that are unreliable.  They won that game 32-3.  I don't care that they're on the road.

Green Bay at Chicago:

I went back and forth on this one.  I was almost in doubt, which would mean trust the home team.  I think the loss of Nick Collins is going to hurt the Packers a great deal on defense.  But, Jay Cutler doesn't have an offensive line and the Green Bay pass rush is going to destroy him.

Atlanta at Tampa:

I'm picking a lot of road teams this week and that seriously worries me.  But, I think that Tampa is overrated and that the Falcons will take care of business.  Plus which, this game doesn't have much letdown potential (road loss to an inferior team after a big home win; see: hated Ravens, Baltimore, Week 2) since most analysts are saying Atlanta didn't deserve to beat Philly because Vick got hurt.  That gives them the opportunity to play the "No Respect" card and Mike Smith is smart enough to use that as a motivator.

Arizona at Seattle:

Both these teams are craptastic, but you gotta pick someone, right?  I'm going with the home team -- Seattle actually has a great home crowd and they're much tougher there.  Should also be enough players left from last year's roster that they understand this: A 7-9 record could win this division and they just got their butts kicked by the Steelers, so they need to win a division game at home.

Steelers at Indianapolis:

We'll have a more thorough breakdown of this game later this week.  Bottom line, Kerry Collins should not have come out of retirement.  One of these weeks, some team is going to chase him out of the game and they will be a very lucky team.  That will mean that Curtis Painter will come in and Curtis Painter is a horrible, horrible quarterback.  I think Collins gets chased out by halftime.

Washington at Dallas:

I hate to pick the Cowboys, but I gotta do it.  I think the Redskins jumped out to a 2-0 record with smoke and mirrors and they eventually need to come down to Earth.  Dallas has been in both their games, overcame some adversity, and fought strong.  The football gods tend to reward that kind of thing.

Moneyline of the Week:

Gotta be Atlanta at Tampa.  It's possible that the Falcons could lose.  Anything is possible.  But, I don't see it.  This is the smartest play, since, at +115, you can win some money by playing Atlanta.

The other possibility is KC at San Diego.  I know the Chiefs have looked awful and there's no reason they should win this game.  However, it's a division game, which means that it could be tight.  The Chargers will only lose if they have a couple of big special teams breakdowns, but their special teams also suck.  The moneyline is +671.  That's worth a shot, right?  I'm not saying the Chiefs are a lock to win.  I think that taking Atlanta and the moneyline is a smarter bet.  But... maybe $20 to win $140?  In a division game?

Line of the Week:

I think the Bills beat the spread, which is 9.  I'm not betting against Tom Brady.  I think the Pats still win this game.  But, Buffalo has scored 79 points in their first two games and New England's defense sucks.  That means the Patriots would need to win 45-35 (or something) in order to cover.  Again, sure, it's possible, but I don't think it's bloody likely.


Patriots over Bills
Lions over Vikings
Eagles over Giants
Panthers over Jaguars
Bengals over 49ers
Saints over Texans
Dolphins over Browns
Titans over Broncos
Chargers over Chiefs
Hated Ravens over Rams
Jets over Raiders
Packers over Bears
Falcons over Tampa
Seahawks over Cardinals
Steelers over Colts
Cowboys over Redskins

No comments:

Post a Comment