About the time the lockout ended, I looked at the schedule and actually thought that the Steelers would stand a good chance of winning this game even if Peyton Manning wasn't trolling Europe, looking under couch cushions to find some stem cells to heal his neck. I knew that the Colts had been taking on water for some time. A big reason that they finished 10-6 last season and won the division was that Manning grew two extra arms and grabbed four big buckets. He bailed them out last year and they got worse in the offseason.
They now have a rookie at left tackle, they let their second-best offensive lineman (Kyle DeVan) and best defensive player (Clint Session) walk. Suitable replacements were not found in free agency or the draft. Their old guys got a year older. Two of their big stars -- Reggie Wayne and Dwight Freeney -- are still very good players, but they're no longer the unstoppable forces that they once were. If they match up against a guy that's either young or crappy, then they have a big game. Freeney has a shot at big game, since he's up against Jonathan Scott, who is young and possibly crappy. Wayne will probably draw Ike Taylor, who is neither young nor crappy, so don't start Wayne in your fantasy league if you have other options.
As a matter of fact, I was holding on to Pierre Garcon in one of my leagues so that I could start him against Bryant McFadden this week (anyone who draws McFadden has a huge game). Then William Gay had to go and screw all that up by playing well last week, so he's starting even though McFadden is healthy. Austin Collie and Dallas Clark are possibilities, but they would need to be the first or second option for Kerry Collins to get any action, since I think the Steeler pass rush will have a big day on Sunday night and Collins won't have time to get to his third or fourth read.
So, Indianapolis doesn't have Manning and their offensive line is sketchy at best. They haven't been able to run the ball at all the past three seasons and the Steelers have had an outstanding run defense since 1992, which means that it will be a lot of Collins running for his life. Collins never ran that well to begin with and I'm guessing that being 38 and retired all offseason hasn't made him any faster.
Then you have their injury report for this week and it shows that the only good news is that Robert Mathis practiced and should play Sunday night. Mathis is up against Marcus Gilbert, who is making only his second start. Crowd noise will play a factor. If the Colts can force an early turnover or two and convert those into points, then they can win this game. This team is built to keep crushing down opponents after they get a lead and a lot of those pieces are still in place, even with Manning gone and Freeney not as good as he used to be. The trouble is that Indianapolis has been having a really tough time scoring points at all, nonetheless building a lead (against pretty shaky defenses in Houston and Cleveland), and the Steelers don't exactly suck on defense.
I think there are two ways this game could shake out:
- Colts keep it close in the first half -- a field goal or a touchdown on either side -- but the Steelers lean on Indy until they fall over, much like the second half of the Seahawks game, just with a smaller lead coming out of halftime.
- The Steelers jump out to a big first half lead, the Colts coaches decide they need a change, and Curtis Painter goes into the game at quarterback for Indianapolis.
If they do, this game has the potential to get really, really ugly for the Colts. Kerry Collins isn't a world-beater, but Painter makes him look like a Voltron quarterback combining Michael Vick's legs, John Elway's arm, Tom Brady's awareness, Peyton Manning's preparation, and Ben Roethlisberger's improvisational skills. Well, so, that's a real overstatement. But the point remains that Painter sucks something awful.
If he gets into the game, it will be like when Charlie Frye would come into Browns games late, when the contest had already been all but decided and the coaches wanted to see what he could do. What he usually did was throw a couple of six yard skippers on seven yard outs, get sacked a bunch, sometimes throw interceptions, and fumble every third time he got sacked. So, I guess Curtis Painter is a re-incarnation of Charlie Frye, which is bad news for a Colts team that has already endured a good deal of that in the last month.
It's a game the Steelers can win, a game they should win, and a game they damn-well better win. But, I still don't think it's going to be a blowout (just like in Week 2, I don't they cover the 10.5 point spread).
Prediction:
Steelers 21, Colts 10
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