Well, God has gone and done something kinda weird to us to start the season. So there's that. Ben's out recovering from his apendectomy and Batch will start the season for the defending champs. And, I gotta say, I'm still not that nervous. Miami's defense no longer scares me. Strange as it may sound, it's their offense that scares me.
When the Steelers Have the Ball:
Pass to Run:
Now, I really believe that we can do whatever we want on offense. I truly believe this. There was once a time when the Dolphins had a top 10 defense every year and they beat you with their speed and athleticism, not their size. That was 5 years ago. Since that point, they've gotten rid of Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison and replaced them with some bunch of kids. The kids are fast and athletic, don't get me wrong, but they're no replacement for the veterans the Dolphins lost.
And, while they used to be small, fast, and athletic, they're now all old. Which makes them slow. And still small. And lacking in the secondary. Now, since Ben's out, the Dolphins are going to stack the line of scrimmage and try to stop the run. Since they have a seriously undermanned secondary (name one of the guys that starts for them... I'm still waiting... okay), and Batch isn't that much worse in the passing game than Ben, I say we come out slinging the ball. But we've gotta be smart about it.
Short and Medium, Not Long:
Nick Saban is no fool. He knows that his secondary is young, inexperienced, and, well... bad. So he's going to send them back into the longest, deepest zones he can manage and hope that we try to hit a home run on every play. One guy jams the receiver at the line of scrimmage, slowing the short route, the safeties play deep. The linebackers control the middle of the field in the short-to-intermediate zones. So there's really only one hole in the defense: Medium range routes (10 to 15 yards) to the inside and outside. After all, if this defense sounds familiar, it's the same one Bellichick uses against us. And that has worked pretty well, since we're constantly trying to throw deep against their understaffed secondary and there are already guys sitting in those zones. So we throw short to get them to come in, but there are already guys in those zones. By the time we figure out that we should throw 10-15 yards downfield, we're down 41-27.
So, we should start throwing medium range passes right off the bat. When they adjust to that and go into a more classic Cover 2, we run like hell. Right over those small, old guys.
Duce is Loose:
Staley has been demoted. Everyone has lost confidence in him. It's him against the world. I'd like to see what he does in this situation, whether he folds or rises to the occasion. Put him in there a few snaps with the first team against their first team with real gameplanning and see what happens.
This has nothing to do with the fact that Duce is on my Fantasy team.
When the Dolphins Have the Ball:
Hey, uh, Daunte... how's that knee?
It's dirty, I know. But the man has looked a little tentative putting weight on his knee all pre-season. He blew out three ligaments last year. We need to sign Kimo to a one game deal. Take Culpepper out.
Down, Not Sub-Package:
1st and 2nd down, Casey Hampton is in the game. Regardless of what type of offense they deploy. A lot of teams have been able to run on us with a great deal of success by getting into 3 and 4 receiver sets, spreading us out, and running right at Chris Hoke and the smaller personnel in the Dime and Nickel packages. When Hampton's in there, teams are unable to run on us as easily out of 3 and 4 receiver sets. However, 3rd and more than 4, Hoke should be in there.
Out of a straight run formation vs. our straight run defense, Ronnie Brown will not be able to gouge us for lots and lots of yardage. The only way they're going to be able to run effectively against us is if they spread us out and we remove Hampton from the equation.
Beat Them at Their Own Game:
They're going to throw deep. A lot. Culpepper does that better than pretty much everyone and they have a bunch of receivers that run the deep routes well.
And a guy by the name of Mike Mularky is calling the plays for them. So there's that. The man likes to throw deep. He likes to run the ball. And he likes to run some trick plays. And we're really familiar with him, since Whisenhunt studied under him for two years before he started calling the plays for the Steelers.
Stay in deep zones. Watch for quick hitches and screen passes. Stop the really short stuff and the really long stuff and hope the pass rush gets to the QB before he sees that the medium stuff is open. And, while we're getting to the QB, go for the knees.
Overall:
I'm not being a homer when I say that we're either going to blow them out or they're going to blow us out. Either their offense will hit on a few big plays early and our offense will struggle early with Batch at the helm or we'll hit on big plays early and they'll struggle.
I just don't see a close game. Even with Batch in there. And, I don't think that the QB for us was going to make the difference in this game, so having Charlie in there instead of Ben isn't a big deal for me.
It's going to come down to our defense stopping their offense. Can we keep them from getting tons of easy yards on the ground against our nickel and dime packages? Can we stop them from completing deep passes on us and hitting some big plays? Can we slow down all the weapons they have on offense?
If the answer to all of those is "yes," then we win. Easy. If the answer is "no," we lose. Bad.
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