Okay, I'm moving this weekend, so I'm going to try to keep this as short as possible (though I'm not sure it's going to work). The good news is that it's the Bengals and we're all familiar with how to beat them.
Really, it all depends on what team shows up for the Bengals and what team shows up for the Steelers. Will it be the Bungles team that showed up for the first game and playoff game of last season? Or will it be the Bengals that thoroughly kicked hell out of us last December?
Will it be the Steelers team from December to February? Or the Steelers team that got hell kicked out of it last December? Or the one that took a huge dump in the bed on Monday?
Whichever team shows up for both sides, there are two keys to beating the Bengals:
1. We need to have early success running the ball.
2. We need to make sure they have early success running the ball.
We Have Early Success Running the Ball:
Well, this one's pretty obvious. If we don't have early success and they are sharp on offense right out of the gate, we're looking at a 21-3 deficit midway through the second quarter and Cowher will get that, accountant-who-woke-up-next-to-a-dead-hooker look on his face. Then he'll start to gamble too much. And Ben will start throwing passes that make his fourth quarter decisions from Monday look downright prudent.
We beat the Bengals by establishing tempo, keeping the game close, and waiting for them to screw up. That's how it's been for years. If we can't establish tempo early, they jump to a big lead, and start calling plays from the Wyche era just for kicks because they know they'll work, we're dead in the water.
They Have Early Success Running the Ball:
Is anyone old like me and remember playing the very first football games on computers. I'm not talking about Madden '93. I'm talking about the old school ones that were running on 286s with 1 MB of memory (if that). The game was set up like a drive chart. If you were on defense, you had three run defenses you could call (Run Left, Run Right, Run Middle) and three pass defenses (Pass Left, Pass Right, Pass Middle). Same for the offense.
If you were on offense and called Run Left and the computer called Run Left on defense, you got crushed. If they called Pass Right, you got a huge gain.
Now, for as much as football analysts make and as much as every piece of film is broken down and dissected and re-analyzed and beaten to death... it's really as simple as calling Pass Left when they call Pass Left. And, even if you call Pass Left and they call Pass Right, you still keep it to a minimal gain because you still called Pass Something.
We need to call Pass Something on defense the entire first quarter. Rudi Johnson is a hell of a back, but Marvin Lewis and his teammates don't realize that (unlike millions of happy Fantasy Football players).
Watch for it. We keep playing pass, Palmer keeps checking down to a run, and Johnson keeps gashing us for easy yards. After they kick their second field goal of the first quarter, one of the announcers will say, "If the Steelers keep letting the Bengals run like this, they'll take it all day." Only trouble is that they won't. Marvin Lewis has too much talent in the passing game to run for very long. He knows that, eventually, he'll have to pass, since we're getting touchdowns running the ball and he's getting field goals. He's like a gambler that likes to play big but takes it easy for a few hands. If he wins those hands, he doesn't see it as winning $30,000, he sees it as losing $90,000. When he starts betting big, we'll be ready.
The alternative to this strategy is to play Run Something on defense. They come out, check to a pass, run playaction, and complete a 67 yard play to Chris Henry. Only this time, Kimo doesn't bust Palmer's knee. We go down 14-0 early and the Dead Hooker face comes out. And the game's over. So, I'm thinking we should keep calling Pass Something until they decide to pass.
Overall:
I think we win. I really do. I just don't see us losing to the Bengals yet. I have no information or analysis to back that up, I just think that after we laid that stinkbomb in front of a national audience, we're going to be angry and focused and make the Bengals pay for it.
Complaints Department:
1. I don't want anyone talking about how Troy's injury affected Monday's game. THE DEFENSE ONLY LET UP NINE FREAKIN' POINTS!!!! If we had bad game on defense, I could see it. Since we didn't, I don't.
2. I'm tired of people calling the quick returns to action of Palmer and Culpepper "miraculous." People have been blowing out their cruciate ligaments for thousands of years. Medicine found a way to fix it faster. Carson and Daunte were dilligent with their rehab schedule. Dr. James Andrews, their surgeon, is the world's best when dealing with sports injuries (he pioneered the "Tommy John" surgery). And, they probably took some HGH.
At NO POINT did Dr. James Andrews say a novina, lay his hands on their knees, and scream to the heavens, "Dear Lord, our father, I beseech thee. Heal this man's knee!" Culpepper didn't hold a Loaves and Fishes banquet for the Dolphins this offseason. Palmer had a Cornhole Invitational and didn't walk across the Ohio to get there. He took a car.
How can something that's the direct result of scientific research be considered "miraculous"? Ah, well. I guess I'll just go back in my cave and plot the demise of John Scopes' grandkids.
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