First things first. I'm sick and tired of football pundits referring the Jacksonville's victory on Sunday as an "upset." The Jaguars were favored by three. Last season, the Jags finished 12-4 (better than the Champs!), made the playoffs, and were the only team to beat both Super Bowl participants. They did this in the superior of the two conferences and really played the Patriots tighter than the 28-3 Wild Card game would indicate. The 'Boys finished 9-7 in a weaker conference.
Granted, Jacksonville lost Jimmy Smith and the Cowboys added TO and the drunken kicker (who did not play), but YOU'VE GOT TO BE FREAKIN' KIDDING ME! How can a team that's playing at home, that made the playoffs last year in the better of the two conferences be seen as upsetting a non-playoff team from a weaker conference that was playing on the road? When they were favored? Comeback win, yes. Upset? No.
Now, there are three teams in the AFC that scare the hell out of me. Indy, New England, and... you guessed it! Jacksonville. The reason for this is not that I think they're as good as accomplished as the other two teams on the list, but that they match up against the Steelers exceptionally well. They even beat us when they were an expansion team. And they kept beating us when we were playing like an expansion team. And they kept things close when we were coming back into the swing of things and they were sucking. The reason for this is that they've always been a tough, physical team that could match our intensity and was always able to run on us and stop our running game.
This year is no different.
When the Steelers Have the Ball:
Too Many Big Dudes Here. Go Around!
Marcus Stroud and John Henderson, the two massive defensive tackles for the Jaguars average about 8'6" and 498 pounds apiece. They're so big, even if they had the athletic ability of a quadrapelegic with a bad neck, they'd still take up space in the middle and give MLB Mike Peterson the ability to make plays.
Last season, we didn't have to worry about these guys as much because Tommy was in the game and we knew we weren't going to try to run the ball, instead opting to throw the ball like crazy and hope no one realized that Tommy always targeted the guy that was triple covered. In 2004, we had Deuce Staley and Jerome Bettis. Not really the two best guys to gain a bunch of yards bouncing the ball to the outside.
This year, we have Fast Willie. And I hope we take full advantage of that. And, brace yourselves, I'm going to suggest that we run the ball to the outside out of a two tight end formation. And that we run at the man that's replacing Reggie Hayward. And that we never, ever, ever, try to run a dive or an off-guard, but instead run a lot of off-tackles, sweeps, and counters. And, since we're going to be running to the outside and Stroud and Henderson are going to be occupying a lot of our linemen, we need to come out in two tight end sets. Marvell Smith and Max Starks can handle the ends one-on-one. That leaves Hartings, Simmons, and Faneca to take care of Stroud and Henderson. Hopefully, that'll be enough. When we do run inside, we need to run counters and cut-backs so that Mike Peterson gets caught up in the garbage overpursuing the ballcarrier and has to re-direct himself around the massive bodies of his two DTs.
Cowher mentioned this week that Jacksonville's run defense creates a lot of "3 yards and a cloud of dust" situations and that the Steelers need to "hope they can break some big 8 and 9 yard plays." Yes. BIG EIGHT AND NINE YARD PLAYS. While I don't think the situation is that dire, I do think that we're going to have one hell of a time running on this defense. And, any time we have trouble running, we have trouble scoring.
Keep Using Health, Get the Ball Out Fast:
In the two tight end set, the only real pass catching threat we'll have is Heath. And we need to use him. Especially off of playaction early in the game. I'm sure that Jax coach Jack Del Rio is so focused on stopping the run that he's turning it into a mantra and/or chant during practices. He probably screams it out during sex. That being the case, the Jaguar defenders are going to come out fired up to match the Steelers' intensity. Remember what happened when the Colts had the same mindset in the Divisional Round? I hope Ken Whisenhunt does.
While I don't think we should be as pass happy in the early going this time around, I do think we need to find some way to loosten Jacksonville's defense up. And Heath is the best way to do that. And Hines. And Holmes. And, God willing, Cedrick Wilson. Early in the game, we need to throw deep to Wilson and Heath off playaction and throw quick passes to Hines and Holmes. One thing I noticed about Jacksonville's secondary over the weekend: They can't tackle to save their lives. But, they can cover in man-to-man and zone situations. Therefore, we need to get the ball in the hands of our receivers quickly and cleanly and watch them make plays against the noodle-armed Jacksonville DBs.
By the way, whether Batch or Ben plays, it doesn't change our strategy.
When the Jaguars Have the Ball:
If Henderson and Stroud are big for DTs, all the skill position guys on the Jacksonville offensive are GIGANTIC. Now that tiny little Jimmy Smith has retired, the first three Jax receivers average 6'4 1/2". That's freakin' big. That's HUGE. Luckily, we're not playing this in some dude's back yard. I think that we'll be fine if we can keep Leftwich from tossing up too many jump balls. We need to confuse him with zone coverages and pressure him into making bad decisions. If he has time to sit back in the pocket and do math ("Wait. Matt Jones is 6'6" and the guy covering him is 5'10". Jones has a 37" vertical jump. If I throw the ball so that it lands in his area at 11' above the field, there's no way the CB is going to get it."), we're screwed.
We need to get in his face, disguise our coverages, and hit him hard, trying to make him pay for that long-ass wind-up of his. He can be forced into making mistakes, it just doesn't happen very often. So, Leftwich isn't going to hand this game to us (like, say, Tommy handed Jax the game last year), we're going to have to win it.
And Fred Taylor is like that crazy looking guy at the end of the bar. 98 pounds soaking wet, old, ragged, strung out. Looks like nothing. But he keeps mumbling to himself. And you never know what the right mix of crazy and tequila will bring out of him. In a fair fight, you could take him easily. But, you never know. He could rush 11 times for 8 yards or blow up for 215 yards on 23 carries and three touchdowns. I'm just not sure. We just need to hope and pray that the Fred Taylor we've come to know and love over the years will be the Fred Taylor that shows up on Monday night.
Overall:
I still think we win this game. It's going to be close. It's not going to be easy. But, for whatever reason, I don't think that Jacksonville has what it takes to take the game from us late. If we give it away by, oh, say, fumbling a snap at their one yard line, they'll take the game from us. I just can't see them taking it by force.
Leftwich is still too young, the receivers are still too raw, and a defense can't stop us with two massive DTs and a speedy MLB alone.
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