Well, on paper, this looks like a huge mismatch. It looks like a game where we should shit-kick the Broncos just like we did in the AFC Championship game on the way to winning Super Bowl XL. Did I mention that we won the Super Bowl XL? Well, we did. The trophy is in South Side and everything.
The funny thing is that this is a completely different team than the one that we shit-kicked in the AFC Championship game on the way to winning Super Bowl XL. They've got a different quarterback, they released all the guys on the defensive line that they got from Cleveland, they moved DJ Williams to middle linebacker, they have a different tailback and a new defensive coordinator.
Hell, this is a way different team than the one we played last season. Most of those changes (except the Cleveland defensive line thing) happened since 2006.
They'll be without their best offensive player (Javon Walker, the guy that burned Ike Taylor so bad last season that he still has griddle marks on his back, is out with a knee injury). They might be without their best defensive player (Champ Bailey has an irritated vagina or something).
And, they're last in the league in rush defense, giving up a whopping 187.6 yards per game. The Steelers are second in rush offense and would be first without that crappy performance against Steelers West in Week 4.
We're 4-1 and have outscored our opponents 132-47 (the only team with a better point differential is New England). They're 2-3 and have been outscored 136-75. They've lost two straight, including two consecutive absolutely embarrassing losses to Indianapolis (38-20) and San Diego (41-3). I'd like to add that San Diego slaughtered the Broncos at Mile High, where they posted an 8-0 home record in 2005.
If Bailey can go or if it he can't, it doesn't matter. Hines Ward's production might suffer, but the good thing about the Steelers' receivers is that there isn't a huge talent difference between Ward and Cedric Wilson. We like to think of Hines as being one of the ten best wideouts in the league, but the reality is that he's a slower version of Wilson with better hands and feet. We converted lots of third downs and did just fine without him against the Seahawks las week.
My point on the receivers is not to bash Hines, but to point out that the lack of difference in talent level means that we're afforded a bunch of versatility. And, really, there isn't any difference between Ward, Wilson, and Holmes physically. Add in Heath Miller and we have a lot of options on offense.
The only things that can screw us are X-Factors. Mike Shannahan has had two weeks to prepare for this game. If you think he's not pissed that he got embarrassed two straight weeks (and is really only 2-3 because he won two ugly games to open up the season), you're mistaken. He's been riding his players these two weeks. And they're pissed off. And they're at home. And, even if everyone in Denver is more focused on the Rockies (how about that, right? The World Series could be Cleveland-Colorado. The sound you hear is the marketing department for Fox committing ritual suicide), the Broncos are going to be fired up.
But, those are pretty obvious. I keep thinking about Travis Henry. He's facing a year-long suspension for violation of the league's substance abuse policy (thanks, Travis, btw; I'm glad I drafted you in the first round). Now, will he be trying to get in as many yards as possible and work as hard as possible so that the next three games (his lawyers are hard at work, so he's got about three games until the suspension finally takes effect) will serve as an audition tape for the team that takes a shot at him next year? Because, seriously, he's gotta know that the Broncos are going to cut him in the offseason.
Or, is he going to spend the next few weeks rocking out with his cock out? Is he going to add to his unofficial record of nine kids with nine different women? Is he going to put his condo up for sale and see how much mileage he can get out of his security deposit? What's the NFL going to do? Suspend him for a year and three games? Four games? At that level, who cares?
Plus which, we're 3 1/2 point favorites. You get three points for being at home. If this game were in Heinz Field, we'd be 9 1/2 point favorites. Thanks, Vegas. The guys in Denver weren't pissed enough yet. You wanna call Dre Bly and tell him that Santonio Holmes cut the brake lines in his Mom's car?
But, the biggest x-factor is Henry. If he's in, "Crap. I gotta pay the mortgage next year and I've got all kinds of child support to take care of. I gotta prove myself the next three weeks. The next three weeks are the Super Bowl." mode, then we've got problems. If he's going to go out tonight and see how many different strippers he can try to knock up, we're going to crush these guys.
Jay Cutler doesn't scare me. Jay Cutler doesn't scare anyone. He could beat his kids with an ax handle and they wouldn't be scared of him. The Broncos miss John Elway. Hell, they miss Jake Plummer. Maybe even Brian Greise.
Still, one motivated (yet virile) tailback does not a game make. We're still going to blow them out.
Prediction: Steelers 31, Broncos 10
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