One Other Side Note...

My brother called me after Jeff Reed (don't say anything bad about Jeff Reed, or Weidman and I will come to your house and kill you and all your blood relations) missed that field goal in the fourth quarter.

He said: "We have to understand that, when we play teams in the playoffs, we're going to be playing teams that are as good as the Patriots.  Teams that are as good as the Patriots need to be put away.  Emphatically.  We just failed to do that.  We need to work on this for the postseason."

I couldn't agree more.

I'm going to say this, though: You can count on this defense to win games for you.  This is a championship defense.  I would also like to say, though, that I'd rather be in a position not to worry about it.  However, if I must worry about it, I'll be worried less with this defense.

Steelers vs. Patriots Review

Remember when I said that this game against the Patriots had the potential to be a "signature game" for this season?

Remember when I failed to post a preview for this game?

Well, those were both mistakes.

I didn't post a preview for the following reasons:

1. I got too busy with the holidays.
2. My uncle's house is not set up to accommodate people who are addicted to the Internet (no WiFi and the best Ethernet connection would have required me to write from his floor in the family room).
3. This game scared the shit out of me.

Consider:

1. Matt Cassel had just thrown for 400 yards two games in a row.
2. The Patriots finally remembered that they had Randy Moss and Wes Welker and it didn't matter who was throwing the ball to them.
3. The Patriots realized that the best way to save the season was to spread the formation out and throw every play.
4. The best way to beat the 3-4 defense (especially the Steelers), historically, was to go to the shotgun formation and deploy at least three wide receivers in the formation.
5. We were down our #1 and #3 cornerbacks.

So, I was wrong to not write a review for this game, because I had at least five reasons that the Patriots made me poop my pants.

I was also wrong in calling this a game that had the potential to be a "signature game".  Yes, we won 33-10.  Yes, we did this to the Patriots, who are talented enough to be 7-4 (now 7-5) without their starting quarterback, starting end, starting outside linebacker, starting tailback, and starting free safety.  Yes, we did this in Foxboro, not in Pittsburgh.  But, this was a signature game for the defense, not the entire team.

We forced five turnovers.

We only let up rushing yards in garbage time or against gimmick plays (sorry, but running a draw with less than two minutes left is a gimmick play)

We held Matt Cassel, who had two consecutive 400 yard games, to 169 yards on 39 attempts, with two interceptions and zero touchdowns.  That's 4.3 yards per attempt before you count the yards lost on sacks.  After you count those, that's 3.7 yards per pass attempt.  That's utterly ridiculous it's so good.  Completely insane.

Throughout the course of the season, we have lived and died (mostly lived and won) by this defense.  And it bailed us out again.

I have no way to quantify how good this defense is.  I have no means of comparison.  I have no way of explaining how they haven't suffered a letdown of epic proportions yet.

They've faced teams that like to line up and beat you with the running game in the Jaguars, Giants, Redskins, and the hated Ravens.

They've faced teams that like to throw the ball out of the spread formation and test the depth of your secondary like the Eagles, Patriots, and Colts.

They've faced teams that can do both, like the Chargers and Texans.

They've faced desperate teams, like the Bengals (twice) and the Browns.

They've held up against them all.

I'm done.  I've tried to doubt this defense.  I've tried to say bad things about Ike Taylor and James Harrison.  I've tried (last season) to destroy Lawrence Timmons.  I've tried my best to say that they aren't as good as the statistics say they are and I've been made to look like a fool every time.  I've been happy to look like a fool, but I've looked like a fool.

In all fairness to me, I had the Giants defense and the Steelers defense on my one fantasy team and dropped the Giants in Week 7, thinking that the Steelers would be excellent from here on out.  But, really, I've doubted them on a number of occasions, particularly against the Colts and the Patriots, but I don't doubt them now.  

I will not doubt them again.  Unless they screw up.

But, this was not a signature game.  The offense needs to get their shit together for that.

Steelers vs. Bengals Review

Well, I've actually heard from a couple of regular readers of this blog (yes, two out of three) wondering why there wasn't a "16 Reasons the Bengals Make Me Poop My Pants" post. I didn't forget, I was just going to post it after I got home, but before the game started on Thursday. Then I got tickets to the game and that was that.

Yep. I was at the game on Thursday night and kept things in check (for the most part). My buddy Chris is a champion, because he somehow managed to score two beers before last call, even though he was sitting in his seat when realized there were only 16 seconds left in the third quarter. It was impressive. I think he teleported to the front of the line.

And, of course, most importantly, I notched another W and I'm now 11-1. It still stings that I have a loss in there, but I guess you can't win them all.

And, I guess, it was pretty cool that the Steelers won, too. They're 8-3 now, have a game and a half lead over the hated Ravens, and, if the season ended today, they'd be the #2 seed in the AFC.

But, really, we were huge favorites over the Bengals, they were 1-8-1, and they were still in the game with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Much like the game in Cincinnati, where it was still 17-10 in the fourth quarter, we kind of wore them down and eventually they rolled over.

Good teams don't do that, though. The Colts sure didn't. At the risk of sounding like a I'm beating a dead horse with a broken record, I'm going to say this again: We've got to play better if we're going to beat playoff teams.

We haven't played a complete game yet. We've had a ton of great defensive games, a couple of good offensive games, and a few in there somewhere that the special teams didn't such major balls, but we haven't had a game where we've excelled on offense, defense, and special teams. Nothing where we're kicking ass in all three phases of the game.

This team reminds me a lot of the 2004 team. They're winning games and they're gutting things out with a number of injuries, but they're not really impressive when they do it. That 2004 team played the NFC East and that was Roethlisberger's break-out rookie season. We went 15-1 that season because we played a lot of crappy teams, but that was a very similar team with a very similar feel.

The difference is that the 2008 Steelers haven't had a signature game like the 2004 team -- they had two in a row against the Patriots and especially against the Eagles, where they went on a 64-23 run and became the only team to be undefeated teams in back-to-back weeks that late in the season. That was the point where everyone finally took notice of the 2004 team and they started to become the favorites to make it to the Super Bowl.

Of course, that team faded late, Ben got tired and injured, and the 2004 season was choked away at home. Against the Patriots. In the AFC Championship game. Again.

Now, the 2005 team was very similar to the 2004 team in terms of personnel and character, but they played a tougher schedule and were 7-4 after 11 games. They didn't have their signature game until Week 14, where they beat up on a very talented Bears team in the snow. That game started their eight game winning streak to end the season and, in February of 2006, the Steelers won Super Bowl XL. It had been a while since I mentioned that. Felt good.

Last season, the team kinda limped into the playoffs and their only signature win game in Week 9 against the hated Ravens. And, really, the most significant thing that happened there was that I met Hank Williams Jr.

So... there hasn't been a signature game thus far this season. The bad news is that the only game that has potential for us to crush an overmatched opponent is Week 17 against Cleveland, which, to me, is very close to 2005, when we played Cleveland in Week 16 and Charlie Batch threw a touchdown to Quincy Morgan in the fourth quarter to make it 41-0. I miss Batch almost as much as I miss the Charlie Frye drinking game.

But, there are plenty of opportunities for that signature game to happen:

1. Next week against the Patriots. We'll have had 10 days to rest and they still don't have Tom Brady. If we kick the crap out of them, it'll exorcise some demons from last season and it will also mean that we'll have kicked the crap out of them in their stadium, where we've historically gotten our asses beat down.
2. Week 14 against Dallas. It's at home, they will have had 10 days to rest and prepare, and they may have their shit together at that point. Tony Romo will be coming on strong, their defense is actually pretty well suited to playing in cold weather, and we can see Troy follow Terrell Owens around all game... just like he did in 2004 against the Eagles.
3. How about the week after that? We travel to Baltimore to play the hated Ravens and the division could still be up for grabs. No chance for a Hank Williams Jr. sighting, but still pretty cool.
4. Week 16 against the Titans really only works in two scenarios -- If we haven't lost games 1-3 and they're either 14-0 or 12-2. At 14-0, we can end their perfect season. At 12-2, that means we hold the tiebreaker and makes the last game relevant. Even if we beat the 13-1, 11-3, or 10-4 Titans, it's only a signature game if we win by a lot. If we just beat them, say, 11-10, or something, then we went out and beat a good team on the road. And that's about it. If we thwump them, though, that's a feather in our cap for the season and for the postseason, since we're going to be seeing them again.

My thinking at this point is that we're making the playoffs and we're playing a home game. The Jets still look really unpredictable and could finish out with a better record than us just because they get to play the AFC East, AFC West, and NFC West, which are some of the worst divisions in football, whereas we have to play the AFC South and the NFC East, two of the better divisions.

One thing we need to do before the end of the season. I would prefer that we do this in the next 10 days before the Patriots game:

We need to get Bitch Merger back or find someone else to punt the ball. Paul Ernster's leg belongs in the Smithsonian with all the other old, worthless crap that's only behind glass because it's obsolete.

We need another punter. I don't care if it's Merger. I don't care if it's Vulva (though that might be difficult). I don't care if it's Josh Miller or Gardocki (difficult, but not impossible). I don't even care if it's Reggie Roby (too soon?).

We need someone. Anyone. Not Ernster. I don't want our playoff fate to be tied to his right leg. Or his left leg. Either one of them.

Steelers vs. Chargers Review

I needed to wait a little while before I posted this so that I could cool off. The officiating was horrendous and I'm not just limiting that criticism to the last play, which clearly should have been a touchdown. The NFL has admitted that it should have been a touchdown, the refs admitted that they were wrong, and no one is going to get fined for complaining about it. The NFL still isn't going to fix anything, but they're real sorry. Which is about all we can hope for, I guess.

I'm talking about that lame-ass pass interference call in the first quarter that set up their only touchdown. I'm talking about phantom holding calls -- the last one on Sean McHugh actually wasn't bad, just ill-timed -- flags getting picked up when they shouldn't have been dropped in the first place (everyone I've talked to knows that it's not possible to get flagged for illegal contact if the quarterback is outside of the pocket), and not calling holding when there was holding (in the end zone on James Harrison is the first case that springs to mind, but there were others). There's something wrong with how a game is called if one team has 115 penalty yards and the other has five.

The Good:

1. Fast Willie had 115 yards on 25 carries against a damn good front seven.
2. For as many times as we passed the ball -- 45 dropbacks! -- Ben Roethlisberger was only sacked four times. That's still a lot. That's still too many. But, it's a better ratio than we had earlier in the season.
3. Speaking of Roethlisberger, he averaged over seven yards an attempt. Sure, it was the worst pass defense in the NFL, but at least he threw for 300 yards and didn't throw an interception.
4. The pass defense held up, even though there wasn't a ton of pressure on Philip Rivers. He came into the game with some impressive statistics -- as I mentioned -- and was held to 164 yards (6.3 per attempt), no touchdowns, and was intercepted twice.
5. We shut LaDanian Tomlinson down.
6. Troy Polamalu is back in 2005 form and might be better than he was in 2005. He forced two turnovers, scored a touchdown, made a bunch of plays in the back field, and contained Antonio Gates. Yes. I'm pretending the last play counted.
7. Matt Spaeth might work better for this offense than Heath Miller. Since he can't block, they don't depend on him too much in the running game. But, since he can't block, they assume he can catch, so they look for him in the passing game.

The Bad:

1. The offense gained 432 yards and scored nine points. That's pathetic.
2. Were 0-3 in Goal-To-Go situations. Three trips inside the 10, three failures. Note to Tomlin: "Running back left" was only guaranteed success when Faneca played for us. Now, everyone is looking for it and everyone can stop it. Maybe try a play action pass on the next third and goal, huh?
3. Paul Ernster averaged 31 yards per punt. Kinda makes me long for the days of Bitch Merger and his two bad hammies.
4. We averaged 17 yards a kick return, had zero punt returns, and totally screwed the pooch on the free kick after the safety.
5. So, basically, our special teams are atrocious, even though our coverage units did a pretty good job.

The Ugly:

If I told you that we played a team, forced three turnovers (I'm counting the last one), scored a touchdown, got a safety, didn't turn the ball over, and outgained them 432-225, what would you think the final score was? Gotta be at least 24-10, right? Maybe 34-13? Even going with a best case scenario and assuming the refs got it right, it's an 18-10 victory.

Choking in goal to go situations isn't going to beat anyone in the playoffs.

Crappy special teams play isn't going to beat anyone in the playoffs.

Failing to capitalize on turnovers isn't going to beat anyone in the playoffs.

We've reached the point in the season where thinking about the playoffs isn't a jinx-worthy endeavor. If we make the playoffs, we've got to play much better and much more efficient than we have the past two weeks.

We'll probably be able to get past the Bungles with at least a tie if we play like this on Thursday, but there's no way we beat the Patriots or the Titans, or probably the hated Ravens playing sloppy football like that.

Reason #17

I was going to balance the Philip Rivers criticism I had in the 16 Reasons posts with some stats and observations that point out just how good a season Rivers is having, but those got left out because I was in a hurry to get it posted and forgot to put the information in there...

1. The Chargers have scored 244 points this year and Tomlinson has only scored 30 of those points. To put that in perspective, they scored 412 points in 2007 and Tomlinson was responsible for 114 of those. In 2006, the ratio was 492-198. So, yeah. He's being phased out (or at least is less effective, so they need to find other ways to score) and Philip Rivers is being phased in. They have 244 points and Rivers has 21 touchdown passes, so he's responsible for 126 of those 244 points.
2. Against those 21 touchdowns, he's thrown only eight interceptions. He also has 2,354 yards passing and is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt. He's only been sacked 12 times. That's just a bunch of rare statistics right there. Usually, if you have that high of an average, you're throwing high-risk passes. That means more chances for incompletions (he's hitting on 65.4% right now), more chances for interceptions, and more opportunities for the defense to sack you. But, that hasn't happened to Rivers.
3. Pretty much, he's having a hell of a season.
4. Still doesn't scare me, though.
   

16 Reasons the Chargers Make Me Poop My Pants

So, I didn't write a review for the Colts game. A few reasons for that.

1. My first loss watching the Steelers play. I'm 10-1, but that first one is always the hardest.
2. Due to poor planning on my part and lack of an acceptable number of ATMs on Heinz Field's part, I spent an hour or so getting wings and missed most of the second and third quarters.
3. Due to WAAAAAAAAY too much beer on my part, the fourth quarter is kinda fuzzy. Like, well-maintained Chia Pet fuzzy.

I looked at the stats and the highlights from the game, so I think I have a good grasp on how things went down and what things look like for this week. So, without further ado...

1. These aren't your father's Chargers. Or, your cousin's Chargers. You know, your cousin? The one who started following them in 2005? Sure, you could say that they're a 4-5 team that lost their first two games in the closing seconds, so they should be 6-3 if not for Dante Rosario and Ed Hoculli (yes, you were supposed to say, "Who?" to both of those guys). But, they also let up 39 points to Denver, lost to Miami, and lost to Buffalo. They snuck by Oakland and needed a missed extra point and a failed two-point conversion to beat the Chiefs.
2. LaDainian Tomlinson is not the same player he once was. Not even close. I mean, there are some that argue that he put up huge numbers for years because of carries, red zone opportunities, and running behind a great offensive line. So, maybe he wasn't the best back in the league the last five years, but he was up there. Now, he's not there at all. He's averaging 3.8 yards a carry, has only scored four touchdowns in nine games (most seasons, he'd have 20 by now), and he's played crappy defenses like the Saints, Broncos, Chiefs, and Raiders.
3. So, ordinarily, I'd say we have to stop Tomlinson to win, but I don't think that's first priority. I think we'll stop him. We've stopped better running backs running behind better lines already this season, so we can stop Tomlinson.
4. Where we have to worry is when Tomlinson gets out of the back field and becomes a receiver. During his career, he has 53 carries against us for 189 yards, but he also has 20 receptions for 110 yards. Granted, the average for the receptions isn't much better, but that's weighed down by a six catch for eight yards effort when we kicked the shit out of them in 2003 (and I was there). We always seem to act like he's the only guy on the field when the Chargers run, but we somehow lose track of him when they pass. He's dangerous in the open field and we can't let him kill us when he catches the ball. James Farrior, LaDanian Tomlinson. LaDanian Tomlinson, James Farrior. James, tell us what Tomlinson had for lunch.
5. The fact that Antonio Gates is awesome is no longer a secret. I know it, you know, hell, Dante Rosario knows it. However, people keep losing track of him (or, ya know, get beat by him, whichever). He leads the team in receptions and touchdowns. He has six touchdowns and his longest touchdown is for 30 yards. Think we might wanna keep an eye on this dude in the red zone? Sick Troy on him. He usually draws the other team's best guy. That has worked for the most part. I mean, look who was covering Reggie Wayne on his 65-yard touchdown last week. It was ball bitch Ike Taylor, not Troy. Have Woodley or Harrison chuck him when he comes off the line, then have Troy keep an eye on him.
6. Silver lining: Tomlinson is third on the team in receptions with 33. Gates has 38. That's 71 catches by the tight end and the running back. Know what other team has a really great running back-tight end combination? The Washington Redskins.
7. Silver lining inside the silver lining: #2 on that list is receiver Vincent Jackson and #4 is receiver Chris Chambers. Both average over 17 yards a reception. The Chargers only throw deep to those guys. To throw deep, you need to hold the ball for a while. The Steelers have 34 sacks in nine games. Philip Rivers had knee surgery in the offseason. I'm sure that all of these things add up to a big pile of awesome that should in no way end with Rivers flopping around on the ground like Carson Palmer circa January 2006. Not saying I'm hoping it will happen, but their back-up is Billy Volek.
8. Side note on Chambers: He is having the weirdest season of all time by a receiver. He has five touchdowns, but only 16 catches. He's been targeted 34 times, but has a bunch of drops. He's averaging 17 yards a catch, but rarely catches the ball. Of those 16 catches, six have gone for 20+ yards and two of those have been 40+, both touchdowns. However, he hasn't caught a pass that has gone for 20+ yards in a month and a half. Just... just, weird. I mean, you can't not cover him, but I'd be interested in seeing what would happen if you didn't for the purposes of science. And my one fantasy team.
9. Jackson is another strange case. He's huge (6'5", 240), he's fast, and he's in an offense that would take advantage of a huge, fast guy, but he never put it together his first two seasons. He seems to be putting it together now (35 catches, 621 yards, four touchdowns), but you can never be sure. He's made Chris Chambers look like Art-freaking-Monk since he came into the league, so maybe this is the game where he has seven drops and Norv Turner's head explodes. Maybe this is the game where he catches 12 balls for 242 yards and three touchdowns and Fernando Bryant's head explodes.
   
10. Oh, that's right! We signed some dude named Fernando Bryant this week. He'll probably be playing for Deshea, who was playing for Bryant McFadden. William Gay could squeeze his way in there, but the fact remains that our top three corners will be, in order: ball bitch Ike Taylor, some dude named Gay, and some dude we just signed. So... maybe their receivers are going to have a good game.
11. Well, except for the fact that I'm still not sold on Philip Rivers. Okay. Take out the 65-yard touchdown from last week and Peyton Manning -- 6'5", 230 pound quarterback with a laser-rocket arm and way better receivers -- was 21 of 39 with 175 yards. That's 4.48 yards per attempt. Peyton Manning. Laser-rocket arm. We still have a defense that will stop teams that just want to throw deep. Rivers and the Chargers just want to throw deep. So... Tomlinson doesn't kill us, Rivers doesn't kill us, it's gotta be their defense, right?
12. Look. (Thank you, President-elect Obama! I needed something to make people listen!) No, seriously. Look. Their defense has allowed 200 first downs. 200! They've allowed 214 points. I'd like to take this opportunity to point out that they have played Oakland, Kansas City, Miami, and Buffalo. Okay, they also played New Orleans and Denver, but still. They only have 18 sacks. They only have six interceptions.
13. On the subject of pass defense, they're dead last in the NFL. They give up an average of 265 yards per game. They've given up 17 touchdown passes. They played the Raiders, okay. The Raiders managed 208 yards combined against Atlanta and Carolina, but put up 277 yards through the air against the Chargers.
14. The defense was so bad that they fired Ted Cottrell a couple of weeks ago and promoted Ron Rivera. But, Cottrell was a blitz-happy guy and Rivera is a Cover 2 guy, so there's bound to be a transition. They still have Shaun Phillips, Luis Castillo, Igor Olshansky, and Casey Hampton clone Jamal Williams, but they're just not the same guys. They've lost their speed off the edge, they've lost their presence in the middle, and they have crappy safeties... which means that it's just the right time for Willie Parker to return from injury! I think he matches up against this defense very well and would have a big day -- a much bigger day than Mewelde Moore -- so I hope he starts.
15. But, I really hope that Ben Roethlisberger doesn't. I think that this is a crappy enough of a pass defense that Byron Leftwich can have a big game against them. Hell, JaMarcus Russell didn't do half bad and he's terrible. I'm not giving up on Roethlisberger and I'm not saying that this should be a permanent shift. I'm just saying that Leftwich is good enough for this week and Roethlisberger is tired enough that we should rest him. When he's hurt, when he's tired, when he's worn out, Roethlisberger gets this look on his face like it's Christmas Eve and he just heard that the last Elmo doll has been sold, even though he pre-ordered one. When he gets that look on his face, he's done. Sit him down. Tomlin's grandmother would be a better replacement because at least she knows her limitations. When Ben gets like that, he doesn't have the chops to do what he is accustomed to doing, but he doesn't realize it. So he forces the ball into coverage. He throws the ball short. He does dumb shit. In order for our quarterback, whoever he may be, to throw for 300 yards against this defense, all we need that guy to do is not do dumb shit. For that reason, I say start Leftwich.
16. Either way, I think Hines Ward and Matt Spaeth do well. I think Moore gets involved in the passing game. I think that, possibly, this is the game that we put it all together. And, possibly, Ben's not gonna be in there when it happens.

My current record for predictions for the season is 7-2, which is better than the 6-3 record that the Steelers actually have. So, I'm going to trust my instincts.

I think that this is not a close game. I think that the Chargers get exposed as frauds. I think that they take their first step into a very disgraceful 8-8 season that ends with the firing of Norv.

I think, though, that Tomlinson gets his numbers and Rivers doesn't end up looking that bad. So, start both of them on your fantasy teams.

Prediction:

Steelers 34, Chargers 13

16 Reasons the Colts Make Me Poop My Pants

I already did a bunch of stuff this week for a Colts site that I write for that talked about how the Colts can win the game.

So, I'm going to talk about how the Steelers can, will, and should.

1. Something's up with Peyton Manning. I've watched all their games this year and he just doesn't look right. He's got that weird, pissed off, anxious look on his face all the time and he just looks like he's going to go all Billy Dee Williams on us every time someone brings up his knee. "It's not my fault! They told me they fixed it! I trusted them! It's not my fault!"
2. Something's up with his passes, too. He's not in sync with his receivers and passes either are a couple seconds too early, a couple seconds too late, or they get their reads crosses and Manning throws inside when the receiver goes outside, or vice versa. It's strange to see and it's difficult to explain, but something ain't right there.
3. As Manning goes, so go the Colts. He's their whole offense. Now, given the fact that he's played absolutely out of his mind the past eight or so years and that, even when he's off his game, he's still in the top ten, it's not too bad. If he's off, the passing game's off. If the passing game's off, the running game's off, because they're not working with a lead and the defense can drop eight guys in the box. And, if we learned nothing else from the Denver game last year, it's that dropping eight guys into the box will stop anyone.
4. I'm not all that worried about the fact that LaMarr Woodley might not play. Lawrence Timmons plays about 15 snaps a game and he already has four sacks. The entire Kansas City defense has four sacks. Granted, the Chiefs suck, but it's still damned impressive that he's done what he's done, given his limited playing time. I think that, if he gets more playing time, he'll do just as well and you can go ahead and multiply whatever he'd do in 15 plays against the Colts by 3 or 4 and call that his stat line for the game.
5. I am not at all worried that Willie Parker is not going to play. (BTW, Willie Parker is not going to play, for those of you that hadn't heard. Update your Fantasy line-ups.) Not at all. Fast Willie dominates teams that have slow outside linebackers, crappy safeties, and cornerbacks that don't want to tackle. He struggles against teams that have fast outside linebackers, talented safeties, and physical cornerbacks. Now, since I'm not broken up about Fast Willie not being able to play, guess which side of the coin the Colts are on?
6. I'm not saying that I'm Mewelde Moore's BFF all of the sudden. I'm just saying that Moore is a better receiver than Willie and, really, he doesn't have any strengths. He doesn't have any weaknesses, either. He's three yards and a cloud of dust, or nine yards on a checkdown and, every now and again, he'll get you 20+ yards on either of those plays. He's not a boom or bust guy like Parker, he's not a power guy like Bettis. He's not fast enough to have to rely on it and he's not big enough to have to rely on it. All he can rely on is that he's perfectly average. And, against a boring defense like the one Indianapolis has, that's perfectly awesome.
7. DFS, Kemoeatu, and Hartwig are starting to come into their own. The Colts defensive tackles? They kinda suck, they're young, they're not quite sure what to do, and they don't have the confidence of having done it before, so they're not sure if they can. Since Moore is starting, we should run between the tackles and take what they give us. For the most part, I'm thinking 4 or 5 yards, but if Bob Sanders or Gary Brackett (those are the two really good guys on the inside for Indy) get caught in traffic, take a bad angle, or miss a tackle, Moore could get one of those 20+ plays.
8. Marvel Smith probably won't be available, which means Max Starks, my favorite mistake, will be at left tackle against Dwight Freeney. This would ordinarily spell disaster, but Dwight Freeny isn't Dwight Freeney anymore. He's just a little dude that's kinda fast, but not as fast as he thinks he is. Same goes for Robert Mathis, but Mathis is closer to actually being as fast as he thinks he is. It could be a problem, but not if...
9. Ben Roethlisberger does not start. He's been holding the ball too long. I know I praised him up and down the past few weeks, but he has been. It's been hurting the team. It's been hurting the offense. It's been hurting his shoulder. He's thinking too much and he's trying to do too much. He needs to take a breather, re-evaluate everything from a different perspective, and come back next week refreshed.
10. In spite of my many criticisms of Byron Leftwich, he does not suck so bad. He has a long-ass wind-up, but he gets rid of the ball in a shorter amount of time than Roethlisberger because he doesn't hold it as long. The faster the quarterback gets rid of the ball, the less time DFS, Willie Colon, and Starks need to spend holding their blocks. And, if Leftwich is in there, they'll give the ball to Moore... um, more... and there will be more checkdowns to the running backs and tight ends. We've become too obsessed as an offense about getting the ball deep. We need to take a step back from that as well and re-evaluate.
11. Joseph Addai's hamstring is still bothering him and Dominic Rhodes was never as great as his stats made him out to be. And his stats were never all that great. I don't see either of them putting up big numbers against our defense. If Clinton Portis and Brandon Jacobs didn't shred the defense -- and neither did Brian Westbrook -- then Addai, Rhodes, and the NFL's 32nd-ranked rush offense ain't gonna, either.
12. James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley/Lawrence Timmons match up very well against the Colts tackles, Tony Ugoh and Ryan Diem. Diem and Ugoh can slow them down, though, and really make them work, which would give Manning enough time to get the ball to his receivers.
13. But, he's not on the same page as his receivers, so we might force a couple of turnovers just based off of that. I'm thinking that, since they're not going to be able to run the ball, they're just not going try. That means a lot of passes. That means a lot of chances to pick the ball off and sack Manning. But, it also means a lot of opportunities for the flip to switch for Manning where he suddenly says, "Holy shit! I remember how to kick ass! Let me go do that." I think it could literally happen at any time, so the fewer chances we give him, the better.
14. The Colts pass defense is very, very good. And, it's weird that it's as good as it is, because they've had a ton of injuries and they're playing with dudes that grabbed off the streets. And, they're not rushing the passer, since Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis aren't really Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis anymore and they don't blitz, so they only have ten sacks. Ten. Sacks. Then again, the Jets only had nine sacks coming into the the 11th game of the year against us last year and ended up sacking Ben six or eight times. At any rate, no Heath, the back-up quarterback in the game, and a passing attack that isn't anywhere near where it was last season, it all adds up to us not having a very good game throwing the ball. And, since the ceiling is pretty low for Moore as far as potential yards and touchdowns (should be about average), that means it's going to be a low scoring game.
15. The only way we blow them out is if we come out of the gate throwing the ball to Spaeth and Ward on the inside (over the linebackers and in front of the safeties, the soft spot in the Cover 2) or to Nate Washington and Santonio Holmes on the perimeter (15 yard out, the other soft spot). Moore needs to break a pretty big run early. We need our guys to get yards after the catch. I don't think that's going to happen, so it's going to be close.
16. The only way they blow us out is if they line up in the shotgun with three wide receivers and Dallas Clark. Spread us out, run the ball out of that spread formation, and get Casey Hampton off the field. They don't have anyone that can handle him on the inside, so the only way they can run between the tackles is to get him off the field. And, maybe Manning puts it all together, starts flinging the ball all over the field, and parties like it's 1999. Or, ya know, 2004. Don't think it's gonna happen, so it's going to be a close game.

Close games come down to defense and quarterbacks. We've got the better defense, they've got the better quarterback. So, that's a wash. That means there needs to be an X-Factor.

Fear not, I am going to the game. I am undefeated. We will TRIUMPH.

Prediction:

Steelers 21, Colts 17

What Do You Think About the Steelers?

Someone asked me this on Sunday night and, when I actually stopped and thought about it, I have to say that I feel very good about the Steelers.

We're 6-2 and five of our last eight are at home. We've got the Bungles and the Browns in there and the rest of the games are definitely winnable. We'll probably finish out at 11-5, but the match-ups look favorable.

That puts us in the playoffs, probably as the #3 seed, so that makes me think about whether or not we could get to the Super Bowl. If the season ended today, we'd be the #2 seed and the other playoff teams would be the Bills, the Patriots, the Jets, the Broncos, and the Titans.

Three teams on the bubble: hated Ravens, Colts, Chargers.

Bills:

They have a good defense, a great wide receiver that has a hot chick's name (Lee Evans), and Marshawn Lynch. With the way we've been stopping the run and taking away the other team's best receiver, that leaves things up to a defense that is good, but has been shaky, and... Trent Edwards.

Patriots:

No Tom Brady, Randy Moss is starting to give up, and their running game is suspect. The X-Factor in this one is that Bill Bellichick could send out 11 paraplegics on defense and still stop our offense.

As a matter of fact, they're the team that scares me the most. Hopefully, they either miss the playoffs or someone will take them out before we have to play them. Seriously. Brady or no Brady, these guys scare me.

Jets:

Favre in a playoff game, bad defense, no real running game. Let's move on.

Broncos:

Change "Favre" to "Cutler" and "bad" to "fucking terrible".

Titans:

They have been winning games by playing great defense and running the ball. We usually win games by playing great defense and running the ball.

So, let's say that the "great defense and running the ball" cancels itself out on both sides. At that point, it's a matter of, "who has the better quarterbacks and receivers?"

Kerry Collins is decent, but he's 100 years old and he's no Ben Roethlisberger. Our third receiver (Nate Washington) is better than their best receiver (Brandon Jones). As a matter of fact, Limas Sweed is probably better than every receiver on their roster.

We might lose the regular season game, but we won't lose to this team in the playoffs.

Colts:

They're on the bubble and I have them in the mix here because they're the Colts and they have Peyton Manning. They have a lot of other good players in addition to Manning, so you can't count them out.

Of course, we could do ourselves a big favor by beating them on Sunday.

The other thing to consider is this: Historically, the Colts have kicked ass early on in the season and sucked balls late. Maybe they're reversing that trend this year and they're going to come on strong in December. Stranger things have happened.

Chargers:

Same deal as the Colts, but just that they have too much talent in general to count them out. They lost two freaky games at the beginning of the season, so they could really be 5-3. They kind came unglued, though, after those first two games and have given up 199 points.

To put that number in perspective, the Lions are only giving up 5 points per game more and the Steelers are giving up over 10 points per game less. The Chargers have the best defense in the AFC West, but that's definitely a "leper with the best dick" scenario.

They can be squirrely, but they can also be beaten. And, conveniently enough, we play them after the Colts.

Hated Ravens:

I really think they fade in the next eight games and end up missing the playoffs, but I would not look forward to playing these guys then. They're the hated Ravens, they always play us tough, and they'd like nothing better than to screw our season up by knocking us out of the playoffs.

Then, you start thinking that unibrow afficianado Joe Flacco is going to be starting that playoff game and you start feeling a little better.

Don't start feeling too comfortable, though. Like the Patriots, this is a team that I would rather not see in the playoffs at all.

So, basically, the next two weeks are critical. If we can beat the Colts and Chargers back-to-back, then we get Cincinnati and maybe a chance to kill New England's season.

Playing a schedule that's as tough as ours is bad in that we play a lot of really good teams. But, it's good in that we can knock some of those teams out of the playoffs by beating them so we won't have to play them again.

That's the kind of stretch we're facing in the next four games, but the next two are the most critical.

Steeler vs. Redskins Review

I said before that I trust our defense, but I have to say that, at this point, I really trust our defense.

Just a few stats that I stumbled across after looking at the box score:

1. The Redskins were 3-15 on third down and 0-2 on fourth down.
2. They had 161 net yards on 43 attempts. That's 3.7 yards per pass attempt. If you hold someone to 3.7 yards per rush, you're doing pretty well. If you count the seven sacks, that's 3.2 yards every time Jason Campbell dropped back to pass. That's just amazing.
3. Clinton Portis came into the game with five straight 120 yard games. He had 13 carries for 51 yards. If you take his 22-yard run out of the equation, he had 29 yards on his other 12 carries. Think about that. A man that came into the game with almost 1,000 yards for the season and almost 200 carries laid a giant friggin' egg and they didn't go back to him, even though they were still only 10 points behind at the end of the third quarter.
4. They started the game with two drives inside our 40 and came away with six points. And had to kick relatively long field goals.
5. They were 0-3 in the red zone and 0-1 in goal-to-go situations.

The most important thing, though, was that I knew the game was over when we went up 10-6. I thought, "If they didn't score after being handed two opportunities, they're not going to score in the second half." I figured we'd get more points, but I just knew that they wouldn't.

Some more good stuff:

1. As much as I hate his delivery, I'm starting to convince myself that Byron Leftwich could be a decent fill-in guy. He's a good back-up. He's no Charlie Batch, but he'll do.
   
2. I think Fast Willie is back and ready for action, but I like the fact that Mewelde Moore didn't completely disappear in last night's game (even though I kinda needed him to for fantasy football purposes). Completely by accident, I think we found the tandem guy to complement Willie.
3. Just to repeat: Our linebackers are awesome.

Bad stuff to balance out the good:

1. If Leftwich starts the next two games, we're not winning the next two games.
2. Fast Willie will struggle next week against the Colts and the week after that against the Chargers.
3. Our secondary? Not so much. If we can't pressure Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers, we lose the next two games.

But, I will say that I'm very impressed by the fact that we're half way through the "toughest schedule ever" and we're 6-2. The eight remaining games we have are all at least winnable and five of them are at home.

New England is without Brady, San Diego and Indianapolis have both taken a step back, I think we match up well against the Titans...

As a matter of fact, let's make this a separate post.