So, I'm going to talk about how the Steelers can, will, and should.
- Something's up with Peyton Manning. I've watched all their games this year and he just doesn't look right. He's got that weird, pissed off, anxious look on his face all the time and he just looks like he's going to go all Billy Dee Williams on us every time someone brings up his knee. "It's not my fault! They told me they fixed it! I trusted them! It's not my fault!"
- Something's up with his passes, too. He's not in sync with his receivers and passes either are a couple seconds too early, a couple seconds too late, or they get their reads crosses and Manning throws inside when the receiver goes outside, or vice versa. It's strange to see and it's difficult to explain, but something ain't right there.
- As Manning goes, so go the Colts. He's their whole offense. Now, given the fact that he's played absolutely out of his mind the past eight or so years and that, even when he's off his game, he's still in the top ten, it's not too bad. If he's off, the passing game's off. If the passing game's off, the running game's off, because they're not working with a lead and the defense can drop eight guys in the box. And, if we learned nothing else from the Denver game last year, it's that dropping eight guys into the box will stop anyone.
- I'm not all that worried about the fact that LaMarr Woodley might not play. Lawrence Timmons plays about 15 snaps a game and he already has four sacks. The entire Kansas City defense has four sacks. Granted, the Chiefs suck, but it's still damned impressive that he's done what he's done, given his limited playing time. I think that, if he gets more playing time, he'll do just as well and you can go ahead and multiply whatever he'd do in 15 plays against the Colts by 3 or 4 and call that his stat line for the game.
- I am not at all worried that Willie Parker is not going to play. (BTW, Willie Parker is not going to play, for those of you that hadn't heard. Update your Fantasy line-ups.) Not at all. Fast Willie dominates teams that have slow outside linebackers, crappy safeties, and cornerbacks that don't want to tackle. He struggles against teams that have fast outside linebackers, talented safeties, and physical cornerbacks. Now, since I'm not broken up about Fast Willie not being able to play, guess which side of the coin the Colts are on?
- I'm not saying that I'm Mewelde Moore's BFF all of the sudden. I'm just saying that Moore is a better receiver than Willie and, really, he doesn't have any strengths. He doesn't have any weaknesses, either. He's three yards and a cloud of dust, or nine yards on a checkdown and, every now and again, he'll get you 20+ yards on either of those plays. He's not a boom or bust guy like Parker, he's not a power guy like Bettis. He's not fast enough to have to rely on it and he's not big enough to have to rely on it. All he can rely on is that he's perfectly average. And, against a boring defense like the one Indianapolis has, that's perfectly awesome.
- DFS, Kemoeatu, and Hartwig are starting to come into their own. The Colts defensive tackles? They kinda suck, they're young, they're not quite sure what to do, and they don't have the confidence of having done it before, so they're not sure if they can. Since Moore is starting, we should run between the tackles and take what they give us. For the most part, I'm thinking 4 or 5 yards, but if Bob Sanders or Gary Brackett (those are the two really good guys on the inside for Indy) get caught in traffic, take a bad angle, or miss a tackle, Moore could get one of those 20+ plays.
- Marvel Smith probably won't be available, which means Max Starks, my favorite mistake, will be at left tackle against Dwight Freeney. This would ordinarily spell disaster, but Dwight Freeny isn't Dwight Freeney anymore. He's just a little dude that's kinda fast, but not as fast as he thinks he is. Same goes for Robert Mathis, but Mathis is closer to actually being as fast as he thinks he is. It could be a problem, but not if...
- Ben Roethlisberger does not start. He's been holding the ball too long. I know I praised him up and down the past few weeks, but he has been. It's been hurting the team. It's been hurting the offense. It's been hurting his shoulder. He's thinking too much and he's trying to do too much. He needs to take a breather, re-evaluate everything from a different perspective, and come back next week refreshed.
- In spite of my many criticisms of Byron Leftwich, he does not suck so bad. He has a long-ass wind-up, but he gets rid of the ball in a shorter amount of time than Roethlisberger because he doesn't hold it as long. The faster the quarterback gets rid of the ball, the less time DFS, Willie Colon, and Starks need to spend holding their blocks. And, if Leftwich is in there, they'll give the ball to Moore... um, more... and there will be more checkdowns to the running backs and tight ends. We've become too obsessed as an offense about getting the ball deep. We need to take a step back from that as well and re-evaluate.
- Joseph Addai's hamstring is still bothering him and Dominic Rhodes was never as great as his stats made him out to be. And his stats were never all that great. I don't see either of them putting up big numbers against our defense. If Clinton Portis and Brandon Jacobs didn't shred the defense -- and neither did Brian Westbrook -- then Addai, Rhodes, and the NFL's 32nd-ranked rush offense ain't gonna, either.
- James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley/Lawrence Timmons match up very well against the Colts tackles, Tony Ugoh and Ryan Diem. Diem and Ugoh can slow them down, though, and really make them work, which would give Manning enough time to get the ball to his receivers.
- But, he's not on the same page as his receivers, so we might force a couple of turnovers just based off of that. I'm thinking that, since they're not going to be able to run the ball, they're just not going try. That means a lot of passes. That means a lot of chances to pick the ball off and sack Manning. But, it also means a lot of opportunities for the flip to switch for Manning where he suddenly says, "Holy shit! I remember how to kick ass! Let me go do that." I think it could literally happen at any time, so the fewer chances we give him, the better.
- The Colts pass defense is very, very good. And, it's weird that it's as good as it is, because they've had a ton of injuries and they're playing with dudes that grabbed off the streets. And, they're not rushing the passer, since Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis aren't really Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis anymore and they don't blitz, so they only have ten sacks. Ten. Sacks. Then again, the Jets only had nine sacks coming into the the 11th game of the year against us last year and ended up sacking Ben six or eight times. At any rate, no Heath, the back-up quarterback in the game, and a passing attack that isn't anywhere near where it was last season, it all adds up to us not having a very good game throwing the ball. And, since the ceiling is pretty low for Moore as far as potential yards and touchdowns (should be about average), that means it's going to be a low scoring game.
- The only way we blow them out is if we come out of the gate throwing the ball to Spaeth and Ward on the inside (over the linebackers and in front of the safeties, the soft spot in the Cover 2) or to Nate Washington and Santonio Holmes on the perimeter (15 yard out, the other soft spot). Moore needs to break a pretty big run early. We need our guys to get yards after the catch. I don't think that's going to happen, so it's going to be close.
- The only way they blow us out is if they line up in the shotgun with three wide receivers and Dallas Clark. Spread us out, run the ball out of that spread formation, and get Casey Hampton off the field. They don't have anyone that can handle him on the inside, so the only way they can run between the tackles is to get him off the field. And, maybe Manning puts it all together, starts flinging the ball all over the field, and parties like it's 1999. Or, ya know, 2004. Don't think it's gonna happen, so it's going to be a close game.
Fear not, I am going to the game. I am undefeated. We will TRIUMPH.
Prediction:
Steelers 21, Colts 17
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