Well, I was completely wrong. The good news on that is that I'd rather be wrong and have the Steelers win than be right and have the Steelers lose. I'm sure you all know by now that the Steelers won today, just like they won Super Bowl XL and Super Bowl XLIII.
Today was the kind of blowout win and type of offense production that I think we were all looking for and probably needed. The Steelers are 3-0, proved me wrong yet again, and I am happy.
Now, three weeks into the season, I have to say that I am satisfied.
The Steelers finally opened up the offense, continued to play suffocating defense, and looked solid on special teams. Remember when Bitch Merger and -- what was that guy's name? Not Bitch Merger -- were averaging 30 yards a punt throughout the 2008 season? That's what the Buccaneers are currently dealing with. On top of the turnovers the Steelers forced, the fact that Mendenhall was running downhill all game, that Batch reclaimed his arm from the Smithsonian, and the Steelers got a couple of lucky bounces, Tampa had to deal with the fact that they lost 100 yards of field position because their punter sucks and Vulva is awesome. The Steelers were able to overcome that in 2008 because they had a great team. Tampa was not able to overcome their punter -- and everything else -- because it's a lot to overcome, they're probably a crappy team, and the 2010 Steelers could be a great team.
They may be able to overcome the fact that they didn't have a quarterback for the first four games of the season and establish themselves as the favorite to win the AFC. They may be able to, but let's not count any chickens when we've only got three games in the basket.
Also, Charlie Batch didn't play badly, but he's not the longterm answer at quarterback. He has probably held Byron Leftwich off for Week 4, but there's no way he's holding Ben Roethlisberger off after the suspension is over. His first touchdown to Mike Wallace was an underthrown ball that Wallace adjusted to and the cornerback did not. The second touchdown to Wallace was a lucky bounce. The third touchdown to Hines Ward was a nice play, but he also had all day to throw. I'm thinking he doesn't get as much time in the pocket next week against the hated Ravens as he did today against the Buccaneers.
His 24 yard "scramble" looked like the last play in The Longest Yard. I kept waiting for one of the guards to come along and clock him. He threw three touchdown passes, yes, but he also threw two interceptions and threw for only 86 yards to guys not named Mike Wallace.
I definitely overestimated Tampa. They may possibly be a gawd-awful team. But, the fact remains that the Steelers went into Tampa and completely destroyed that gawd-awful team, which is what great teams are supposed to do. They're also supposed to beat good teams.
After the other action today, I think you can safely say that Tennessee and Atlanta are good teams. I think you might be able to say that those are both very good or great teams. The Titans are 2-1 and have averaged 34 points a game against teams that aren't the Steelers. The Falcons put up 41 against Steelers West and 27 against the defending champs, winning in overtime today and also moving to 2-1.
That means that the Steelers beat two good teams and one crappy team without a quarterback. That means that they should be even better when they actually have a quarterback.
Does that mean that Mendenhall will be able to average seven yards a carry every week? No. But, it also means that he probably won't have to. It would be nice if he did, but it won't be as critical to the team's success.
The bad news is that they'll probably need Mendenhall to run for 143 yards and a touchdown next week against the hated Ravens. Some dude named Peyton Hillis just did that to the hated Ravens this week, so chances are not good that they will let that happen two weeks in a row.
I can't predict what the season will hold for the Steelers (obviously) but I can say that I'm satisfied now at 3-0. Heading into the season, with the expectations most of us had, 3-0 is definitely cause for some satisfaction.
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Friday, September 24, 2010
Steelers-Bucs Preview
I didn't forget to post a review of the Titans game. I thought about it and realized that, basically, it broke down to this:
Dixon actually wasn't playing that bad. He had completed 68.8 percent of his passes and was averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt. He just didn't lead the offense on any touchdown drives. Neither did Batch, but that's not the point.
The offense is not bad. It's not struggling. It's not trying to find its groove. It's ass-terrible and I'm not convinced that it will be fixed when Ben Roethlisberger comes back. That's a story for another time, though.
I am starting to believe that the defense is back to their 2008 form, but they flashed a lot of 2009 in the fourth quarter against the Titans. If that game went to overtime, the Steelers would have lost.
The important thing to remember is that the game did not go into overtime and the Steelers did not lose. They're 2-0. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-0. That's what matters. Even if they lose their next two games -- which could very well happen -- they're still 2-2 heading into the bye, which is what we all realistically hoped for.
Regarding the game against Tampa this weekend...
I saw that the Steelers were favored by three points this weekend and thought, "Only three? But Tampa really sucks." Then I thought about it from Tampa's perspective. They must be thinking, "We're undefeated and playing at home. Somehow, we're three point underdogs to a team that's starting a 36 year-old third string quarterback that hasn't scored a touchdown in regulation all season."
You could argue that Tampa is only 2-0 because they beat a couple of really crappy teams -- Carolina looks awful and Tampa needed a fourth quarter comeback to beat Cleveland. But the key here is that Tampa doesn't know any better. They're too young and dumb to know that they don't have "quality wins" and should just roll over and get crushed by the Steelers.
They have youth on their side and they have confidence on their side. The issue with young teams is usually that they don't have a broad history of successes to remember when they're struggling. They don't have a mental example of a time when they overcame adversity in a situation, what they learned they learned from that situation, and how they can use that experience and confidence to succeed in the situation they're currently struggling with.
If Ben Roethlisberger finds himself down by three in a Super Bowl with two minutes left in the game facing a long field, he knows that he should be able to drive the team down the field and score because he's done it before. Josh Freeman -- the quarterback for the Buccaneers -- now has his example. He was down by 11 against the Browns in Week 1 and brought his team back to win.
Sure, it's the Browns. Sure, it's only one example. But that's all Freeman knows. All these players know is that they sucked something awful last season, but they started to band together, started to figure some stuff out, and won more than they lost the last six games of the season. This season, they know they're 2-0, they're at home, and they're underdogs to some bunch of old dudes that are waiting for a rapist to come back and lead them.
Tampa doesn't have a lot of star power -- or really any star power -- but that doesn't mean they aren't talented. If you're in the NFL, you're talented. There are about six billion people in this world and only about 1,500 of them are on NFL rosters. In order to make that cut, you need to be talented. Some players are more talented than others, sure. Some teams are more talented than others.
The Steelers have more star power and talent than the Bucs, but the Bucs are too young and dumb to be intimidated by that. The Steelers are assuming that they'll win, while the Bucs expect to win and will do whatever it takes to win.
A lot of the fans are just waiting for Roethlisberger to come back. There are probably a number of players on the Steelers that feel as though they just need to get through this first month, though they'd never admit that publicly.
Tampa's together, Tampa's at home, Tampa has their team in place and they're confident in that team and what they're doing. If the Steelers try to turn things around in the fourth quarter and basically say, "We're the grown-ups here, so just listen to us and let us win the game," Tampa won't listen.
I don't quite trust the defense yet -- especially late in the game -- and I definitely and definitively don't trust the offense. I trust that Tampa is starting to build some swagger and everyone in their locker room knows that this could be their "statement game."
Prediction:
Buccaneers 17, Steelers 15
- To say that the offense is terrible right now would be understating the obvious.
- To say that the defense is fantastic right now would be understating the obvious.
- But, the Steelers are 2-0 and that ain't bad.
Dixon actually wasn't playing that bad. He had completed 68.8 percent of his passes and was averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt. He just didn't lead the offense on any touchdown drives. Neither did Batch, but that's not the point.
The offense is not bad. It's not struggling. It's not trying to find its groove. It's ass-terrible and I'm not convinced that it will be fixed when Ben Roethlisberger comes back. That's a story for another time, though.
I am starting to believe that the defense is back to their 2008 form, but they flashed a lot of 2009 in the fourth quarter against the Titans. If that game went to overtime, the Steelers would have lost.
The important thing to remember is that the game did not go into overtime and the Steelers did not lose. They're 2-0. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-0. That's what matters. Even if they lose their next two games -- which could very well happen -- they're still 2-2 heading into the bye, which is what we all realistically hoped for.
Regarding the game against Tampa this weekend...
I saw that the Steelers were favored by three points this weekend and thought, "Only three? But Tampa really sucks." Then I thought about it from Tampa's perspective. They must be thinking, "We're undefeated and playing at home. Somehow, we're three point underdogs to a team that's starting a 36 year-old third string quarterback that hasn't scored a touchdown in regulation all season."
You could argue that Tampa is only 2-0 because they beat a couple of really crappy teams -- Carolina looks awful and Tampa needed a fourth quarter comeback to beat Cleveland. But the key here is that Tampa doesn't know any better. They're too young and dumb to know that they don't have "quality wins" and should just roll over and get crushed by the Steelers.
They have youth on their side and they have confidence on their side. The issue with young teams is usually that they don't have a broad history of successes to remember when they're struggling. They don't have a mental example of a time when they overcame adversity in a situation, what they learned they learned from that situation, and how they can use that experience and confidence to succeed in the situation they're currently struggling with.
If Ben Roethlisberger finds himself down by three in a Super Bowl with two minutes left in the game facing a long field, he knows that he should be able to drive the team down the field and score because he's done it before. Josh Freeman -- the quarterback for the Buccaneers -- now has his example. He was down by 11 against the Browns in Week 1 and brought his team back to win.
Sure, it's the Browns. Sure, it's only one example. But that's all Freeman knows. All these players know is that they sucked something awful last season, but they started to band together, started to figure some stuff out, and won more than they lost the last six games of the season. This season, they know they're 2-0, they're at home, and they're underdogs to some bunch of old dudes that are waiting for a rapist to come back and lead them.
Tampa doesn't have a lot of star power -- or really any star power -- but that doesn't mean they aren't talented. If you're in the NFL, you're talented. There are about six billion people in this world and only about 1,500 of them are on NFL rosters. In order to make that cut, you need to be talented. Some players are more talented than others, sure. Some teams are more talented than others.
The Steelers have more star power and talent than the Bucs, but the Bucs are too young and dumb to be intimidated by that. The Steelers are assuming that they'll win, while the Bucs expect to win and will do whatever it takes to win.
A lot of the fans are just waiting for Roethlisberger to come back. There are probably a number of players on the Steelers that feel as though they just need to get through this first month, though they'd never admit that publicly.
Tampa's together, Tampa's at home, Tampa has their team in place and they're confident in that team and what they're doing. If the Steelers try to turn things around in the fourth quarter and basically say, "We're the grown-ups here, so just listen to us and let us win the game," Tampa won't listen.
I don't quite trust the defense yet -- especially late in the game -- and I definitely and definitively don't trust the offense. I trust that Tampa is starting to build some swagger and everyone in their locker room knows that this could be their "statement game."
Prediction:
Buccaneers 17, Steelers 15
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Steelers-Titans Preview
This is a tough one because I had it penciled in as a loss. The Titans are a superior team when the Steelers don't have Ben Roethlisberger under center and they're at home. I knew that their confidence would be built up from beating up on Oakland the week before.
In the Falcons game, I knew that we were the better team overall, but we were going to be handicapped on offense in Dixon's first start. That meant it would come down to the quarterbacks and Matt Ryan is a better quarterback than Dennis Dixon.
In this game? A lot of things need to go right for the Steelers to win.
The Steelers will win if:
They can run the ball.
I know that sounds obvious, since the best way to win with an inexperienced quarterback is to be able to run the ball and set up the passing game, but it's true. The running game was solidly OK against the Falcons and, if you've been watching the Steelers for the past two seasons, it was solidly good. But, Tennessee has a better front seven than Atlanta and the Steelers are on the road. And Max Starks -- as much as I've ragged on him over the years -- is the best option the Steelers have at left tackle and will be missed in the running game and the passing game.
With any luck, the offensive line will rally around whoever needs to start in place of Starks and have a great game. Running the ball is part talent, part execution, and part desire. If the Steelers get the first two thirds down, the talent part won't matter as much.
They use Dixon properly.
During the Falcons game, the announcers kept saying that Dennis Dixon can only throw to the middle part of the field. If he tries to throw right or throw left, he's doomed. If he focuses on the middle, he's good to go.
That was a partially accurate statement.
The fact is that Dixon can only read one section of the field on a given play. He can read the left side, the right side, or the middle -- but not all at once. He doesn't have the experience and grasp of the offense to read the entire field.
What teams usually do with a quarterback that runs well, doesn't have a complete grasp of the offense, and can't read the field is fix it so that he only has to read one section of the field. Usually, with fast, right-handed quarterbacks, they roll that quarterback out to the right.
The advantages are that he only needs to read part of the field, he can run if he needs to, and he can throw the ball out of bounds if there is no other option, because he's already outside the tackle box.
Now, the Steelers didn't try this at all in the game against Atlanta, which leads me to three conclusions:
The defense holds up.
We're all shell-shocked from 2009 and were waiting for the defense to blow it against the Falcons. They didn't. If the Steelers get a lead, they will turtle and try to keep Dixon from giving the game away. That means the defense will need to hold up.
The Titans will win if:
They can run the ball.
If Chris Johnson is unsuccessful -- for him that means about 20 carries for about 70 yards and possibly a touchdown -- then the Steelers have a chance. If he is successful -- which could mean up to 200 yards and multiple touchdowns -- then the Steelers are boned. Johnson is their most powerful and effective weapon on offense. Stop him and you stop the Titans.
But, the defense can't be too concerned with the run.
A deep pass here or there can be sustained. If the defense becomes overly obsessed with stopping the run, then Kenny Britt and Nate Washington become Randy Moss and Jerry Rice.
They get a big play from their defense or special teams.
Any return or turnover that gets the Titans inside the 20 is going to kill the Steelers in terms of momentum and the scoreboard. Tennessee is too good in the red zone to give them extra opportunities. If they get one, they will convert. That would be too much of a swing in points in what should be a low-scoring game.
Odds:
The Titans are at home, they're coming off a blow-out win, and they're playing with confidence. The Steelers are on the road, they have an inexperienced quarterback, and they barely escaped Week 1 with a win.
Prediction:
Titans 17, Steelers 7
In the Falcons game, I knew that we were the better team overall, but we were going to be handicapped on offense in Dixon's first start. That meant it would come down to the quarterbacks and Matt Ryan is a better quarterback than Dennis Dixon.
In this game? A lot of things need to go right for the Steelers to win.
The Steelers will win if:
They can run the ball.
I know that sounds obvious, since the best way to win with an inexperienced quarterback is to be able to run the ball and set up the passing game, but it's true. The running game was solidly OK against the Falcons and, if you've been watching the Steelers for the past two seasons, it was solidly good. But, Tennessee has a better front seven than Atlanta and the Steelers are on the road. And Max Starks -- as much as I've ragged on him over the years -- is the best option the Steelers have at left tackle and will be missed in the running game and the passing game.
With any luck, the offensive line will rally around whoever needs to start in place of Starks and have a great game. Running the ball is part talent, part execution, and part desire. If the Steelers get the first two thirds down, the talent part won't matter as much.
They use Dixon properly.
During the Falcons game, the announcers kept saying that Dennis Dixon can only throw to the middle part of the field. If he tries to throw right or throw left, he's doomed. If he focuses on the middle, he's good to go.
That was a partially accurate statement.
The fact is that Dixon can only read one section of the field on a given play. He can read the left side, the right side, or the middle -- but not all at once. He doesn't have the experience and grasp of the offense to read the entire field.
What teams usually do with a quarterback that runs well, doesn't have a complete grasp of the offense, and can't read the field is fix it so that he only has to read one section of the field. Usually, with fast, right-handed quarterbacks, they roll that quarterback out to the right.
The advantages are that he only needs to read part of the field, he can run if he needs to, and he can throw the ball out of bounds if there is no other option, because he's already outside the tackle box.
Now, the Steelers didn't try this at all in the game against Atlanta, which leads me to three conclusions:
- They thought they could beat the Falcons without using this strategy.
- They are dumb and don't know what they're doing.
- I am dumb and don't know what I'm talking about.
The defense holds up.
We're all shell-shocked from 2009 and were waiting for the defense to blow it against the Falcons. They didn't. If the Steelers get a lead, they will turtle and try to keep Dixon from giving the game away. That means the defense will need to hold up.
The Titans will win if:
They can run the ball.
If Chris Johnson is unsuccessful -- for him that means about 20 carries for about 70 yards and possibly a touchdown -- then the Steelers have a chance. If he is successful -- which could mean up to 200 yards and multiple touchdowns -- then the Steelers are boned. Johnson is their most powerful and effective weapon on offense. Stop him and you stop the Titans.
But, the defense can't be too concerned with the run.
A deep pass here or there can be sustained. If the defense becomes overly obsessed with stopping the run, then Kenny Britt and Nate Washington become Randy Moss and Jerry Rice.
They get a big play from their defense or special teams.
Any return or turnover that gets the Titans inside the 20 is going to kill the Steelers in terms of momentum and the scoreboard. Tennessee is too good in the red zone to give them extra opportunities. If they get one, they will convert. That would be too much of a swing in points in what should be a low-scoring game.
Odds:
The Titans are at home, they're coming off a blow-out win, and they're playing with confidence. The Steelers are on the road, they have an inexperienced quarterback, and they barely escaped Week 1 with a win.
Prediction:
Titans 17, Steelers 7
Monday, September 13, 2010
Steelers-Falcons Review
I can say this with 100 percent certainty and honesty: A win is a win. That's what matters. The Steelers won, they did not lose, and that is ultimately what we need to cling to at this point in the season.
I think Mike Tomlin said it best when he said, "We got some things to work on, absolutely, like all 31 other teams do. But we get to do it while we’re 1-0."
I was happy that the defense stepped up in the fourth quarter, that Troy made a big play when the defense needed a big play, and the defense stood tall in overtime, getting the ball back right away with a short field.
I thought Vulva kicked well and often turned the field position battle back on the Falcons. I thought Jeff Reed certainly could've made that game-winning field goal at the end of regulation, but you can't really knock him for barely missing that 55-yarder in the first half. As a matter of fact, I'd be surprised if he missed two kicks total the rest of the season -- he only missed three all of last season -- or, if nothing else, I don't think he'll miss two in a game.
The big story was the coverage units on special teams. Vulva and Reed can kick the ball as hard as they like. If the coverage unit doesn't get down there and make the tackle, it doesn't matter how far they kick it. I don't think we'll have another year like last year where the Steelers gave up 114 kick and punt returns for touchdowns. They look stronger this year, more organized, and they have more quality players covering kicks. I don't think it'll be a huge strength of the team, but it will at least be a strength, which is better than a weakness.
I was actually pretty happy with how the running game performed. I was very excited to see Ike Redman convert three out of four short yardage plays, which was a major weakness for the Steelers the past two seasons. Sure, Rashard Mendenhall only got to 120 yards because 50 of that came on one play, but he only had 22 carries. Take away that 50 yarder and he's still got 70 yards on 21 carries. After watching the Steelers for the past two seasons, I will take that.
Dennis Dixon still has to get more comfortable and the coaching staff needs to put him in a better position to succeed, but the good news is that he didn't play particularly well and the Steelers still won.
I would imagine they can't keep that up over the course of the next three games, but who knows? Even if they don't keep it up over the next three games, they only need to win one of those games to go 2-2 in the first four before Roethlisberger comes back.
I will take a 2-2 start so that we can officially start the season after the bye in Week 5.
I think Mike Tomlin said it best when he said, "We got some things to work on, absolutely, like all 31 other teams do. But we get to do it while we’re 1-0."
I was happy that the defense stepped up in the fourth quarter, that Troy made a big play when the defense needed a big play, and the defense stood tall in overtime, getting the ball back right away with a short field.
I thought Vulva kicked well and often turned the field position battle back on the Falcons. I thought Jeff Reed certainly could've made that game-winning field goal at the end of regulation, but you can't really knock him for barely missing that 55-yarder in the first half. As a matter of fact, I'd be surprised if he missed two kicks total the rest of the season -- he only missed three all of last season -- or, if nothing else, I don't think he'll miss two in a game.
The big story was the coverage units on special teams. Vulva and Reed can kick the ball as hard as they like. If the coverage unit doesn't get down there and make the tackle, it doesn't matter how far they kick it. I don't think we'll have another year like last year where the Steelers gave up 114 kick and punt returns for touchdowns. They look stronger this year, more organized, and they have more quality players covering kicks. I don't think it'll be a huge strength of the team, but it will at least be a strength, which is better than a weakness.
I was actually pretty happy with how the running game performed. I was very excited to see Ike Redman convert three out of four short yardage plays, which was a major weakness for the Steelers the past two seasons. Sure, Rashard Mendenhall only got to 120 yards because 50 of that came on one play, but he only had 22 carries. Take away that 50 yarder and he's still got 70 yards on 21 carries. After watching the Steelers for the past two seasons, I will take that.
Dennis Dixon still has to get more comfortable and the coaching staff needs to put him in a better position to succeed, but the good news is that he didn't play particularly well and the Steelers still won.
I would imagine they can't keep that up over the course of the next three games, but who knows? Even if they don't keep it up over the next three games, they only need to win one of those games to go 2-2 in the first four before Roethlisberger comes back.
I will take a 2-2 start so that we can officially start the season after the bye in Week 5.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Steelers-Falcons Preview
Well, I put this off about as long as I could. One reason is because it was a pretty crazy weekend. The other reason is that it's very difficult to get a feel for teams before the first week of the season. Everything that you're based your predictions/assumptions on is taken from last season and the offseason.
Last season is so one year ago and the offseason -- particularly the preseason -- is not much of an indicator of what's actually going to happen when the season kicks off. So, basically, I got nothin'.
Here is what I think will happen:
Both teams will try to run the ball.
Neither will do so effectively because it's tough to run on the Steelers and the Falcons will put 45 guys in the box and try to make Dixon beat them.
When neither team starts off running the ball well, they'll start to throw. That means the game will come down to the quarterbacks. Matt Ryan is a better quarterback than Dennis Dixon. I know that I've been Dixon's biggest supporter this offseason, but that's because the Steelers don't have Matt Ryan. If they had Ryan, I would've said, "Screw Dixon, let's start Matt Ryan."
Out of the two teams, I think the Steelers have a better chance of running the ball well because I think Atlanta's defense is suspect and the Steelers generally run the ball better at home. If they're able to run the ball, they get the crowd into the game, and the crowd bolsters them, they can win. If either team has early success running the ball, they could blow their opponent out.
Still, I don't the Steelers are going to have success running the ball, I just think their odds are better, like five percent as opposed to two percent for the Falcons.
If the teams start punting the ball back and forth to each other, Atlanta will eventually break the Steelers down. I still don't trust the defense and I won't trust them until they re-gain their 2008 swagger. Since Dixon can't win the game and we won't be able to run the ball, the best case scenario is that we put the game in the defense's hands and they go out and win the game. I don't think that will happen, either, but that's really the best case if things shake out how I think they will shake out.
If this game was being played in Atlanta, I would give the Steelers a three percent chance of victory. Since it's being played in Heinz Field, I give them about a ten percent chance, which is better odds than Vegas is giving them at the moment.
I just see a slow game with both teams trading jabs -- and punts -- for the first three quarters. In the fourth quarter, Ryan will take over unless the defense suddenly comes to life and remembers that the fourth quarter exists. I think Ryan will take over. Then Dixon will start forcing his throws. Then we're probably looking at a defensive touchdown by the Falcons, which will close the game out.
Prediction:
Falcons 23, Steelers 13
Last season is so one year ago and the offseason -- particularly the preseason -- is not much of an indicator of what's actually going to happen when the season kicks off. So, basically, I got nothin'.
Here is what I think will happen:
Both teams will try to run the ball.
Neither will do so effectively because it's tough to run on the Steelers and the Falcons will put 45 guys in the box and try to make Dixon beat them.
When neither team starts off running the ball well, they'll start to throw. That means the game will come down to the quarterbacks. Matt Ryan is a better quarterback than Dennis Dixon. I know that I've been Dixon's biggest supporter this offseason, but that's because the Steelers don't have Matt Ryan. If they had Ryan, I would've said, "Screw Dixon, let's start Matt Ryan."
Out of the two teams, I think the Steelers have a better chance of running the ball well because I think Atlanta's defense is suspect and the Steelers generally run the ball better at home. If they're able to run the ball, they get the crowd into the game, and the crowd bolsters them, they can win. If either team has early success running the ball, they could blow their opponent out.
Still, I don't the Steelers are going to have success running the ball, I just think their odds are better, like five percent as opposed to two percent for the Falcons.
If the teams start punting the ball back and forth to each other, Atlanta will eventually break the Steelers down. I still don't trust the defense and I won't trust them until they re-gain their 2008 swagger. Since Dixon can't win the game and we won't be able to run the ball, the best case scenario is that we put the game in the defense's hands and they go out and win the game. I don't think that will happen, either, but that's really the best case if things shake out how I think they will shake out.
If this game was being played in Atlanta, I would give the Steelers a three percent chance of victory. Since it's being played in Heinz Field, I give them about a ten percent chance, which is better odds than Vegas is giving them at the moment.
I just see a slow game with both teams trading jabs -- and punts -- for the first three quarters. In the fourth quarter, Ryan will take over unless the defense suddenly comes to life and remembers that the fourth quarter exists. I think Ryan will take over. Then Dixon will start forcing his throws. Then we're probably looking at a defensive touchdown by the Falcons, which will close the game out.
Prediction:
Falcons 23, Steelers 13
Friday, September 03, 2010
Dixon is a Win-Win-Win
I've already deconstructed Charlie Batch today, which is basically the same thing as arguing for Dixon, but I thought that Dixon needed his own vote of confidence from me. Because I know he totally reads this blog and loves it.
The Deconstructing Batch post (you should read it and forward it to your friends) is about how Dixon is a more logical and better choice than Batch. I left something out of that post -- partly because it made more sense as a separate post and partly because the post would've been like 8,000 words if I hadn't -- which is that there's no way the Steelers can lose if they go with Dixon over Batch.
There are three possible scenarios for the Steelers during the four games that Ben Roethlisberger will be out:
So, how is Scenario #1 a win?
If Batch starts those games and doesn't get hurt -- which is a long shot, but let's play along -- then Ben comes back after the bye and the team most likely rallies around him and hopefully finishes the season strong. Not that I want to sweep the rape allegations under the rug -- I still think his behavior was deplorable even in the "best case scenario" and would refer him not to be on the team, but I don't own the Steelers -- but Scenario #1 would help the fans, the city, and the team embrace Roethlisberger again and, if they start winning and turn things around, people will start to forget about what may or may not have happened in that bathroom.
That's a win regardless of whether Batch or Dixon starts those four games. But, it's a bigger win if Dixon starts. I've heard an opinion that says Dixon's confidence will be shaken if he doesn't do well and the fans turn on him. I know Kordell was fragile and he wore the same number as Dixon, but Dennis Dixon is not a six year-old that maybe doesn't know all the steps for the dance recital. Dennis Dixon is a professional football player and he is very familiar with what's involved with playing the quarterback position.
With those four games, Dixon will be able to learn from his failures, which is almost as important as being able to enjoy his successes. He'll grow as a player and a person and, as a restricted free agent next season, he'll be a valuable asset as a back-up since Leftwich will probably move on and Batch has to retire eventually.
What will hurt his confidence is if Batch is named starter, then gets hurt, then Dixon has to jump in. Dixon will know that he is only being given the opportunity to succeed or fail because absolutely every other option is either hurt or suspended. Dixon's never been put in a position to succeed. He's never been put in a position to fail. If, as was outlined in the Deconstructing Batch post, it doesn't really matter who the quarterback is, then I would rather the Steelers go 1-3 or 0-4 with Dennis Dixon. They'll get more out of it.
I don't want the Steelers to do that, but I'm also realistic. There's a reason that "You can't win them all" is a cliche. They've done very well the last 20 years or so. Maybe they need to not do as well. If they're going to not do as well, they may as well get as much out of that experience as possible.
In Scenario #2, that's basically what everyone thinks will happen anyway. So, you go back to everything Dixon has over Batch in Scenario #1 and add a win. I guess that's where I got win-win. Hey-o!
The odds do not favor a 3-1 or 4-0 start, but that would obviously be the best thing that could happen. Even if Dixon goes 4-0 and looks great, he still knows that he's just keeping the job warm for Roethlisberger (which sounds kinda skeevy in context), so he'll step aside. Batch is the same way.
If Dixon goes 3-1 or 4-0, then the Steelers either keep him as a restricted free agent and use him as a back-up next season or put a big qualifying offer on him and try to trade him to a team that needs a young quarterback with a bright future that's 3-2 or 4-1 as a starter. A lot of teams need that.
Again, I'm not saying that Dennis Dixon is the second-coming of Jesus. I just think that he's a better option than Charlie Batch, both now and for the future.
The Deconstructing Batch post (you should read it and forward it to your friends) is about how Dixon is a more logical and better choice than Batch. I left something out of that post -- partly because it made more sense as a separate post and partly because the post would've been like 8,000 words if I hadn't -- which is that there's no way the Steelers can lose if they go with Dixon over Batch.
There are three possible scenarios for the Steelers during the four games that Ben Roethlisberger will be out:
- They go 1-3 or 0-4.
- They go 2-2.
- They go 3-1 or 4-0.
So, how is Scenario #1 a win?
If Batch starts those games and doesn't get hurt -- which is a long shot, but let's play along -- then Ben comes back after the bye and the team most likely rallies around him and hopefully finishes the season strong. Not that I want to sweep the rape allegations under the rug -- I still think his behavior was deplorable even in the "best case scenario" and would refer him not to be on the team, but I don't own the Steelers -- but Scenario #1 would help the fans, the city, and the team embrace Roethlisberger again and, if they start winning and turn things around, people will start to forget about what may or may not have happened in that bathroom.
That's a win regardless of whether Batch or Dixon starts those four games. But, it's a bigger win if Dixon starts. I've heard an opinion that says Dixon's confidence will be shaken if he doesn't do well and the fans turn on him. I know Kordell was fragile and he wore the same number as Dixon, but Dennis Dixon is not a six year-old that maybe doesn't know all the steps for the dance recital. Dennis Dixon is a professional football player and he is very familiar with what's involved with playing the quarterback position.
With those four games, Dixon will be able to learn from his failures, which is almost as important as being able to enjoy his successes. He'll grow as a player and a person and, as a restricted free agent next season, he'll be a valuable asset as a back-up since Leftwich will probably move on and Batch has to retire eventually.
What will hurt his confidence is if Batch is named starter, then gets hurt, then Dixon has to jump in. Dixon will know that he is only being given the opportunity to succeed or fail because absolutely every other option is either hurt or suspended. Dixon's never been put in a position to succeed. He's never been put in a position to fail. If, as was outlined in the Deconstructing Batch post, it doesn't really matter who the quarterback is, then I would rather the Steelers go 1-3 or 0-4 with Dennis Dixon. They'll get more out of it.
I don't want the Steelers to do that, but I'm also realistic. There's a reason that "You can't win them all" is a cliche. They've done very well the last 20 years or so. Maybe they need to not do as well. If they're going to not do as well, they may as well get as much out of that experience as possible.
In Scenario #2, that's basically what everyone thinks will happen anyway. So, you go back to everything Dixon has over Batch in Scenario #1 and add a win. I guess that's where I got win-win. Hey-o!
The odds do not favor a 3-1 or 4-0 start, but that would obviously be the best thing that could happen. Even if Dixon goes 4-0 and looks great, he still knows that he's just keeping the job warm for Roethlisberger (which sounds kinda skeevy in context), so he'll step aside. Batch is the same way.
If Dixon goes 3-1 or 4-0, then the Steelers either keep him as a restricted free agent and use him as a back-up next season or put a big qualifying offer on him and try to trade him to a team that needs a young quarterback with a bright future that's 3-2 or 4-1 as a starter. A lot of teams need that.
Again, I'm not saying that Dennis Dixon is the second-coming of Jesus. I just think that he's a better option than Charlie Batch, both now and for the future.
Deconstructing Batch
Now that Byron Leftwich hurt his knee -- he needs an MRI, but it looked pretty bad and he hasn't exactly been able to bounce back from injuries in previous seasons -- the Steelers have a decision to make at quarterback.
From what I heard, it's the most obvious thing in the world that Charlie Batch should start while Roethlisberger is serving his suspension. I know I've been a huge Dennis Dixon advocate for some time now, but I really don't think he's the second best quarterback on the roster right now. I think he's the best option and that has more to do with the fact that I think Batch is bad option than the fact that I think Dixon is the greatest thing since sliced beer.
By all accounts, Dixon had a craptastic game in Week 3 of the preseason and made many people inside and outside the organization question how much he has developed since the Steelers drafted him. But, Batch barely played this preseason and there was a possibility that he would have been released had Leftwich not gotten hurt.
So, the best course of action for the Steelers would be to start a guy that they were thinking about cutting?
There are some basic arguments for starting Batch that all the pundits keep beating into the ground. All of these arguments are old and tired and are either on based old information or information that isn't relevant to the discussion.
1. Batch is an experienced veteran.
Experienced veteran is a popular euphemism for "old dude that used to be good." Batch has started 50 games throughout the course of his NFL career, but 46 of those starts came with Detroit. He's actually been with Pittsburgh for six years (seven seasons) and has appeared in 24 games (mostly at the end of a blowout) with four starts.
In those 24 appearances, he attempted 135 passes and completed 75 of them (56.1 percent). That's 5.7 attempts per appearance. He's not Bob Freakin' Griese, he's going to need to throw the ball to win games. Even if you only count games that he started, that's 33.7 attempts per start, which is what Roethlisberger averaged per start last season. But, when you really look at it, he hasn't been a passing machine throughout the course of his Steelers career.
Plus which, when you look at experience, Batch has attempted two passes the past two seasons and his last start was in 2007. He lost that start to... the hated Ravens, completing only 51.6 percent of his passes with two touchdowns, two interceptions, and finishing with a quarterback rating of 69.0. Dixon has more recent experience, also against the hated Ravens. He lost that game, completed 46.2 percent of his passes with one touchdown, one interception, and a quarterback rating of 60.6.
2. Batch knows the offense.
The idea is that, since Batch is more experience and has been with the team longer, he knows the offense better than Dixon. Well, that's probably true. From a fundamental standpoint, he has a broader base of knowledge regarding the Steelers offense than Dennis Dixon does. But, Batch has barely been practicing and hasn't had any reps with the first team. Dixon has had more practice time in training camp, during the preseason, and he's actually had in-game experience with the first team. I know he didn't perform well when he got that shot, but I'll get to that in a minute.
It's great to have a deep base of knowledge about something, but that knowledge doesn't do you much good if you haven't practiced it. I had a pretty extensive base of knowledge of differential equations before I started my Econ class last semester. When it actually came time to do the math and work out the equations, it took me a while to figure it out and get comfortable with it. Now, football is a young man's game. I'm betting that I could do a differential equation faster than my Dad because I've had recent experience with them and I'm younger, even though he took several levels of Engineering Calculus.
Also, the implication is that Dennis Dixon doesn't know the offense. Really? He hasn't learned anything the past two and a half years? You're sure?
OK, well, Dixon probably doesn't know everything about the offense and there are more than likely facets of the offense that Batch knows that Dixon doesn't. That means the Steelers will need to "dumb down" or "strip down" the offense so that Dixon can run it.
The other side of that is that they'd run the full offense with Batch under center, which is a piece of utter fiction created by a "stripped down" brain. That argument asserts that the Steelers are going to take a guy who has only attempted two passes in almost three years, hasn't practiced or played with the first team this offseason, and has started only four games since the George W. Bush's first term, and give him the keys to the entire offense? The one that it took Ben Roethlisberger the better part of his career to master? Really?
OK, so that means that whoever is under center for those first four-to-six games is going to be working with a stripped down offense. If that factor is constant, then why not put a guy behind center that's younger, faster, and can make more of the throws?
3. Duh. Because Charlie Batch is better at protecting the ball.
I will concede the fact that, as a Steeler, Batch has a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But, it's a very small sample size at eight touchdowns and four picks. Also, if you look at the numbers since 2007, he's got two touchdowns and three picks. If you take out 2006 -- in particular the game where he came in against Atlanta and threw for a bajillion yards and touchdowns against a horrible defense -- where he had five touchdowns and zero interceptions, he has three touchdowns and four picks. Dixon has one touchdown and one interception.
For his career, he has 57 touchdown passes to 44 interceptions. That's an important stat and goes to show that he's not a turnover machine. But, it also doesn't show that he's particularly adept at protecting the ball.
If you have two guys and you need to strip down the playbook for them and all they need to do is protect the ball and not lose the game... why not go with the guy with more upside that gives a defense more to deal with?
4. Because Charlie Batch is a winner.
I get it. He's 3-1 as a Steelers starting quarterback. I know.
But, he lost his last start. Here's a reminder that that start occurred a full year before we had a black president. For his career, he's 22-28. The last time he started more than two games in a row -- when he started ten games for the Lions in 2001 -- he was 0-9.
I know that the Lions really, really, really suck and that you can't hang those losses on Batch. But, then, you can't give him credit for going 2-0 in 2005 for the eventual Super Bowl XL Champion Pittsburgh Steelers. The fact that he went 0-1 on a 2007 squad that won the division and had the number one defense then becomes fairly damning.
Then there's the elephant in the room. If you're stripping down the offense, hoping that he just protects the ball, and only task him to "not lose" the game instead of winning it... what, exactly, makes having a guy that's "a winner" important?
Don't get me wrong...
I like Batch. I do. I think he's a great story and he seems like a terrific person. I have never liked Byron Leftwich. I don't think he's a spectacular player, but at least he does have a history of protecting the ball, he can make all the throws, and he actually has a recent track record of success with the Steelers. He has also had extensive practice time with the first team offense.
I had eventually talked myself into Leftwich being the best choice. Unfortunately, I think it was Wednesday when that happened and he blew out his knee the following day.
But, if Batch is so awesome, why couldn't he beat out Leftwich -- who joined the team late and wasn't with the Steelers last year -- for the top back-up job? Why did the Steelers sign Leftwich if they knew they had a winner like Batch waiting in the wings? If Batch is so great, why didn't the Lions keep him as a veteran starter with a decent TD-Int ratio who, at that point, was only 27? Why didn't Cowher pull Tommy Maddox and put the younger Batch in when the Steelers were downright terrible in 2003? Batch was hurt in 2004 when Maddox went down and the Ben Roethlisberger Era started... but why did the Steelers keep Maddox in 2005? Why didn't Batch start against the Jaguars in 2005? Why did it take an epic meltdown by Maddox for Batch to go in?
I know that Dixon lost a lot of his credibility with Steelers fans after that cover-your-eyes-awful performance in Week 3. But, it's the preseason. Really, the preseason is a good way to judge rookies, gauge how good the back-ups are, and try some stuff out on offense and defense.
Dixon choked away his chance when he played with the first team, but most of those guys were trying not to get hurt instead of actively competing. It's really difficult to project how far along someone is or how well they'll do in game situations by looking at them in the preseason.
The Carolina Panthers didn't score a touchdown in the preseason. Does that mean they won't score one all through the regular season? No. The Colts went 0-4. Does that mean they'll suck this year? No. The Steelers went 3-1. Are they for sures going to the Super Bowl? No.
With nine days to practice with the first team, a full week of practice, and a supporting cast that will be giving their all and not worrying about getting hurt, things will probably be different for Dixon against the Falcons in the first regular season game.
No one knows for sure. But, given the other options, isn't it time we found out?
From what I heard, it's the most obvious thing in the world that Charlie Batch should start while Roethlisberger is serving his suspension. I know I've been a huge Dennis Dixon advocate for some time now, but I really don't think he's the second best quarterback on the roster right now. I think he's the best option and that has more to do with the fact that I think Batch is bad option than the fact that I think Dixon is the greatest thing since sliced beer.
By all accounts, Dixon had a craptastic game in Week 3 of the preseason and made many people inside and outside the organization question how much he has developed since the Steelers drafted him. But, Batch barely played this preseason and there was a possibility that he would have been released had Leftwich not gotten hurt.
So, the best course of action for the Steelers would be to start a guy that they were thinking about cutting?
There are some basic arguments for starting Batch that all the pundits keep beating into the ground. All of these arguments are old and tired and are either on based old information or information that isn't relevant to the discussion.
1. Batch is an experienced veteran.
Experienced veteran is a popular euphemism for "old dude that used to be good." Batch has started 50 games throughout the course of his NFL career, but 46 of those starts came with Detroit. He's actually been with Pittsburgh for six years (seven seasons) and has appeared in 24 games (mostly at the end of a blowout) with four starts.
In those 24 appearances, he attempted 135 passes and completed 75 of them (56.1 percent). That's 5.7 attempts per appearance. He's not Bob Freakin' Griese, he's going to need to throw the ball to win games. Even if you only count games that he started, that's 33.7 attempts per start, which is what Roethlisberger averaged per start last season. But, when you really look at it, he hasn't been a passing machine throughout the course of his Steelers career.
Plus which, when you look at experience, Batch has attempted two passes the past two seasons and his last start was in 2007. He lost that start to... the hated Ravens, completing only 51.6 percent of his passes with two touchdowns, two interceptions, and finishing with a quarterback rating of 69.0. Dixon has more recent experience, also against the hated Ravens. He lost that game, completed 46.2 percent of his passes with one touchdown, one interception, and a quarterback rating of 60.6.
2. Batch knows the offense.
The idea is that, since Batch is more experience and has been with the team longer, he knows the offense better than Dixon. Well, that's probably true. From a fundamental standpoint, he has a broader base of knowledge regarding the Steelers offense than Dennis Dixon does. But, Batch has barely been practicing and hasn't had any reps with the first team. Dixon has had more practice time in training camp, during the preseason, and he's actually had in-game experience with the first team. I know he didn't perform well when he got that shot, but I'll get to that in a minute.
It's great to have a deep base of knowledge about something, but that knowledge doesn't do you much good if you haven't practiced it. I had a pretty extensive base of knowledge of differential equations before I started my Econ class last semester. When it actually came time to do the math and work out the equations, it took me a while to figure it out and get comfortable with it. Now, football is a young man's game. I'm betting that I could do a differential equation faster than my Dad because I've had recent experience with them and I'm younger, even though he took several levels of Engineering Calculus.
Also, the implication is that Dennis Dixon doesn't know the offense. Really? He hasn't learned anything the past two and a half years? You're sure?
OK, well, Dixon probably doesn't know everything about the offense and there are more than likely facets of the offense that Batch knows that Dixon doesn't. That means the Steelers will need to "dumb down" or "strip down" the offense so that Dixon can run it.
The other side of that is that they'd run the full offense with Batch under center, which is a piece of utter fiction created by a "stripped down" brain. That argument asserts that the Steelers are going to take a guy who has only attempted two passes in almost three years, hasn't practiced or played with the first team this offseason, and has started only four games since the George W. Bush's first term, and give him the keys to the entire offense? The one that it took Ben Roethlisberger the better part of his career to master? Really?
OK, so that means that whoever is under center for those first four-to-six games is going to be working with a stripped down offense. If that factor is constant, then why not put a guy behind center that's younger, faster, and can make more of the throws?
3. Duh. Because Charlie Batch is better at protecting the ball.
I will concede the fact that, as a Steeler, Batch has a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But, it's a very small sample size at eight touchdowns and four picks. Also, if you look at the numbers since 2007, he's got two touchdowns and three picks. If you take out 2006 -- in particular the game where he came in against Atlanta and threw for a bajillion yards and touchdowns against a horrible defense -- where he had five touchdowns and zero interceptions, he has three touchdowns and four picks. Dixon has one touchdown and one interception.
For his career, he has 57 touchdown passes to 44 interceptions. That's an important stat and goes to show that he's not a turnover machine. But, it also doesn't show that he's particularly adept at protecting the ball.
If you have two guys and you need to strip down the playbook for them and all they need to do is protect the ball and not lose the game... why not go with the guy with more upside that gives a defense more to deal with?
4. Because Charlie Batch is a winner.
I get it. He's 3-1 as a Steelers starting quarterback. I know.
But, he lost his last start. Here's a reminder that that start occurred a full year before we had a black president. For his career, he's 22-28. The last time he started more than two games in a row -- when he started ten games for the Lions in 2001 -- he was 0-9.
I know that the Lions really, really, really suck and that you can't hang those losses on Batch. But, then, you can't give him credit for going 2-0 in 2005 for the eventual Super Bowl XL Champion Pittsburgh Steelers. The fact that he went 0-1 on a 2007 squad that won the division and had the number one defense then becomes fairly damning.
Then there's the elephant in the room. If you're stripping down the offense, hoping that he just protects the ball, and only task him to "not lose" the game instead of winning it... what, exactly, makes having a guy that's "a winner" important?
Don't get me wrong...
I like Batch. I do. I think he's a great story and he seems like a terrific person. I have never liked Byron Leftwich. I don't think he's a spectacular player, but at least he does have a history of protecting the ball, he can make all the throws, and he actually has a recent track record of success with the Steelers. He has also had extensive practice time with the first team offense.
I had eventually talked myself into Leftwich being the best choice. Unfortunately, I think it was Wednesday when that happened and he blew out his knee the following day.
But, if Batch is so awesome, why couldn't he beat out Leftwich -- who joined the team late and wasn't with the Steelers last year -- for the top back-up job? Why did the Steelers sign Leftwich if they knew they had a winner like Batch waiting in the wings? If Batch is so great, why didn't the Lions keep him as a veteran starter with a decent TD-Int ratio who, at that point, was only 27? Why didn't Cowher pull Tommy Maddox and put the younger Batch in when the Steelers were downright terrible in 2003? Batch was hurt in 2004 when Maddox went down and the Ben Roethlisberger Era started... but why did the Steelers keep Maddox in 2005? Why didn't Batch start against the Jaguars in 2005? Why did it take an epic meltdown by Maddox for Batch to go in?
I know that Dixon lost a lot of his credibility with Steelers fans after that cover-your-eyes-awful performance in Week 3. But, it's the preseason. Really, the preseason is a good way to judge rookies, gauge how good the back-ups are, and try some stuff out on offense and defense.
Dixon choked away his chance when he played with the first team, but most of those guys were trying not to get hurt instead of actively competing. It's really difficult to project how far along someone is or how well they'll do in game situations by looking at them in the preseason.
The Carolina Panthers didn't score a touchdown in the preseason. Does that mean they won't score one all through the regular season? No. The Colts went 0-4. Does that mean they'll suck this year? No. The Steelers went 3-1. Are they for sures going to the Super Bowl? No.
With nine days to practice with the first team, a full week of practice, and a supporting cast that will be giving their all and not worrying about getting hurt, things will probably be different for Dixon against the Falcons in the first regular season game.
No one knows for sure. But, given the other options, isn't it time we found out?
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