Steelers-Titans Preview

This is a tough one because I had it penciled in as a loss. The Titans are a superior team when the Steelers don't have Ben Roethlisberger under center and they're at home. I knew that their confidence would be built up from beating up on Oakland the week before.

In the Falcons game, I knew that we were the better team overall, but we were going to be handicapped on offense in Dixon's first start. That meant it would come down to the quarterbacks and Matt Ryan is a better quarterback than Dennis Dixon.

In this game? A lot of things need to go right for the Steelers to win.

The Steelers will win if:

They can run the ball.

I know that sounds obvious, since the best way to win with an inexperienced quarterback is to be able to run the ball and set up the passing game, but it's true. The running game was solidly OK against the Falcons and, if you've been watching the Steelers for the past two seasons, it was solidly good. But, Tennessee has a better front seven than Atlanta and the Steelers are on the road. And Max Starks -- as much as I've ragged on him over the years -- is the best option the Steelers have at left tackle and will be missed in the running game and the passing game.

With any luck, the offensive line will rally around whoever needs to start in place of Starks and have a great game. Running the ball is part talent, part execution, and part desire. If the Steelers get the first two thirds down, the talent part won't matter as much.

They use Dixon properly.

During the Falcons game, the announcers kept saying that Dennis Dixon can only throw to the middle part of the field. If he tries to throw right or throw left, he's doomed. If he focuses on the middle, he's good to go.

That was a partially accurate statement.

The fact is that Dixon can only read one section of the field on a given play. He can read the left side, the right side, or the middle -- but not all at once. He doesn't have the experience and grasp of the offense to read the entire field.

What teams usually do with a quarterback that runs well, doesn't have a complete grasp of the offense, and can't read the field is fix it so that he only has to read one section of the field. Usually, with fast, right-handed quarterbacks, they roll that quarterback out to the right.

The advantages are that he only needs to read part of the field, he can run if he needs to, and he can throw the ball out of bounds if there is no other option, because he's already outside the tackle box.

Now, the Steelers didn't try this at all in the game against Atlanta, which leads me to three conclusions:

1. They thought they could beat the Falcons without using this strategy.
2. They are dumb and don't know what they're doing.
3. I am dumb and don't know what I'm talking about.

Since we hope that #2 isn't true and know that #3 is not at all possible, I'm hoping that #1 is true and that the Steelers deploy the "roll out" strategy against the Titans.

The defense holds up.

We're all shell-shocked from 2009 and were waiting for the defense to blow it against the Falcons. They didn't. If the Steelers get a lead, they will turtle and try to keep Dixon from giving the game away. That means the defense will need to hold up.

The Titans will win if:

They can run the ball.

If Chris Johnson is unsuccessful -- for him that means about 20 carries for about 70 yards and possibly a touchdown -- then the Steelers have a chance. If he is successful -- which could mean up to 200 yards and multiple touchdowns -- then the Steelers are boned. Johnson is their most powerful and effective weapon on offense. Stop him and you stop the Titans.

But, the defense can't be too concerned with the run.

A deep pass here or there can be sustained. If the defense becomes overly obsessed with stopping the run, then Kenny Britt and Nate Washington become Randy Moss and Jerry Rice.

They get a big play from their defense or special teams.

Any return or turnover that gets the Titans inside the 20 is going to kill the Steelers in terms of momentum and the scoreboard. Tennessee is too good in the red zone to give them extra opportunities. If they get one, they will convert. That would be too much of a swing in points in what should be a low-scoring game.

Odds:

The Titans are at home, they're coming off a blow-out win, and they're playing with confidence. The Steelers are on the road, they have an inexperienced quarterback, and they barely escaped Week 1 with a win.

Prediction:
Titans 17, Steelers 7