Steelers-Falcons Preview

Well, I put this off about as long as I could. One reason is because it was a pretty crazy weekend. The other reason is that it's very difficult to get a feel for teams before the first week of the season. Everything that you're based your predictions/assumptions on is taken from last season and the offseason.

Last season is so one year ago and the offseason -- particularly the preseason -- is not much of an indicator of what's actually going to happen when the season kicks off. So, basically, I got nothin'.

Here is what I think will happen:

Both teams will try to run the ball.

Neither will do so effectively because it's tough to run on the Steelers and the Falcons will put 45 guys in the box and try to make Dixon beat them.

When neither team starts off running the ball well, they'll start to throw. That means the game will come down to the quarterbacks. Matt Ryan is a better quarterback than Dennis Dixon. I know that I've been Dixon's biggest supporter this offseason, but that's because the Steelers don't have Matt Ryan. If they had Ryan, I would've said, "Screw Dixon, let's start Matt Ryan."

Out of the two teams, I think the Steelers have a better chance of running the ball well because I think Atlanta's defense is suspect and the Steelers generally run the ball better at home. If they're able to run the ball, they get the crowd into the game, and the crowd bolsters them, they can win. If either team has early success running the ball, they could blow their opponent out.

Still, I don't the Steelers are going to have success running the ball, I just think their odds are better, like five percent as opposed to two percent for the Falcons.

If the teams start punting the ball back and forth to each other, Atlanta will eventually break the Steelers down. I still don't trust the defense and I won't trust them until they re-gain their 2008 swagger. Since Dixon can't win the game and we won't be able to run the ball, the best case scenario is that we put the game in the defense's hands and they go out and win the game. I don't think that will happen, either, but that's really the best case if things shake out how I think they will shake out.

If this game was being played in Atlanta, I would give the Steelers a three percent chance of victory. Since it's being played in Heinz Field, I give them about a ten percent chance, which is better odds than Vegas is giving them at the moment.

I just see a slow game with both teams trading jabs -- and punts -- for the first three quarters. In the fourth quarter, Ryan will take over unless the defense suddenly comes to life and remembers that the fourth quarter exists. I think Ryan will take over. Then Dixon will start forcing his throws. Then we're probably looking at a defensive touchdown by the Falcons, which will close the game out.

Prediction:

Falcons 23, Steelers 13