Thursday, November 09, 2006

Steelers vs. Saints Preview

First things first: Cowher said he was going to make some "serious changes" this week. And all he did was bench Ike Taylor. I'm thinking that he eventually wants McFadden and Taylor to be his starting corners, Clark and Troy to be his safeties, Okobi to be his center, and Santonio Holmes to figure out how to return punts and be his #2 receiver. He's almost there. All he needs to have happen is for McFadden to do well and Ike to fight his way back into the line-up. When he does, Ike will take Deshea Townshend's place. Problem solved. Then, he needs to put Hartings on IR. Okobi starts the rest of the season by default.

Holmes is already starting to step up in the passing game (which is why Hines and Wilson are doing better as well), he just needs to remember how to return punts. He was really good at it in college... And, seriously, we need to get Willie Reid back. Where the hell is he? He can't be any worse than Holmes. Putting Wilson or Coclough back in there doesn't do anything for this team in the long term, so why do it? The season's shot. The only way someone is going to lose their job is if there's someone younger behind them. Which is why Ryan Clark needs to watch out. It could just be a matter of time before Anthony Smith is back there. Once Cowher forgets that he committed a dumbass penalty in the Broncos game. Oh, wait. Everyone on the team is guilty of those. So, really, that's no big deal.

Speaking of dumbass penalties, I forgot to mention this in the Broncos vs. Steelers Review on Tuesday... In the third quarter of the Denver game, with the Steelers trailing 21-10, Willie Parker caught a screen pass and advanced it to the Denver 32 before he got SMACKED by Al Wilson. Wilson's hit was legal and it was a good one. It was so good, in fact, that he straddled Willie (that sounds dirty) and started walking forward, making it very difficult for Willie to get up (again, dirty). He then proceeded to yell DIRECTLY AT WILLIE PARKER in what I can only assume was a, shall we say, TAUNTING fashion. No flag. No comment from the announcers. ESPN.com actually ran an article the next day that talked about what a bad day the officials had on Sunday, but there was no mention of the non-call on Wilson.

The Sunday before that, the Steelers got flagged not once but TWICE for taunting. Having seen all three plays, and being as unbiased as possible, I don't see how the Porter and Foote could've been flagged against Oakland, but Wilson wasn't flagged on Sunday. That penalty against Denver would've moved the ball up to the Denver 17 and could've changed the game. It's true that Ben threw another pick to Champ Bailey on that drive, but you never know. The real point is that taunting seems to fall under the same, weird, subjective grey area that horse-collar tackles do. If you don't always call it, take it out of the rule book. Troy Brown was flagged for taunting in the Patriots-Colts game for missing the referee and accidentally hitting a Colt when he flipped the referee the ball after a touchdown. It's dumb, it has a profound effect on the outcome of the game, and I want it to stop.

About Them Saints:

The previous two seasons, I'd say we win this game by a lot. The Saints have an explosive offense that's built mostly around speed. They can't play a lick of defense, they turn the ball over too much, and Reggie Bush has more negative plays this year than I can count. Normally, this is a team that we crush by beating them to the perimeter, pressuring their QB into a few costly turnovers, not committing any turnovers ourselves, controlling the clock by running the ball, and waiting for them to self-destruct.

One problem with that strategy this season: Teams are using it on us. And succeeding, apparently, because we're 2-6. I really believe that New Orleans will try this strategy on us. And I really believe that they'll succeed.

Deuce McAllister is rejuvenated this year because New Orleans has three talented wideouts in Colston, Horn, and Henderson. They come out with those three guys, McAllister, and Reggie Bush, and defenses have to keep 7 in the box to avoid getting burned. Plus which, McAllister gets to beat up on a bunch of nickel and dime backs because of the other personnel on the field. The end result is that Deuce, a big, fast man that can wear down a defense, gets a lot of easy carries against a soft defense while they're concentrated on chasing Bush, Colston, Horn, and Henderson.

We can slow them down by keeping Casey Hampton in on first and second down, regardless of what formation they come out in and what personnel group they have on the field. If our line can clog up the middle of the field, they'll have no choice but to start handing the ball to Bush in space and watch him pile up -5 yards on 18 carries. And, I don't care if he hasn't done a whole lot in the Saints offense, we need to put Troy on Reggie Bush and keep him on Reggie Bush. Troy's the only athlete on the defense that can hang with Reggie.

Unless, of course, Cowher demoted Ike so that he could put him on Bush the whole game.

On offense, we just need to hold onto the football. The Saints have a pretty damn good defensive line. I'll give them that. It's also true that they didn't know who two of their three starting linebackers would be when the season started. Two guys eventually "won" jobs and the Saints have been trying to cover it up ever since.

If we get a lead an decide to take the air out of the ball, they'll have no choice but to throw their merry band of underachieving linebackers out there to try and stop us. Since they've got such a high-powered offense, teams tend to gear their offense for a shoot-out. As a result, the Saints have been able to come out in mostly nickel and dime defenses, keeping their sucky-ass linebackers on the sidelines.

If we come out in power formations, we'll force them to either get shredded by having too many small defensive backs out there, or put their worst athletes on the field.

In both situations, we win.

However, in order to win, we need to stop their most explosive playmaker consistently, pressure the quarterback, play half-decent pass defense, and effectively run the ball. We haven't been able to do all those things in one game all season.

Predicition:
Saints 30, Steelers 17

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