Super Bowl Prediction

I haven't posted anything about the Super Bowl in a while and for that I apologize. Some of it is just that I was lazy, some of it is just that I was busy, but for the most part it's that I have no idea how to predict this game.

The line's 7, which seems more than a little fishy to me. The Colts haven't really been blowing people out as of late and this just seems like a weaker team to me. They're a lot like the St. Louis Cardinals this year. If they do manage to win the Super Bowl, everyone will look back on this team and say, "Really? This is the team that won? What about the 2005 squad? They were loaded. They didn't win in 2004? Peyton broke the TD record and they crushed everybody. They won in 2006? You're sure?" They just don't have that unstoppable feel about them. And, seriously, if you're going to lay seven points on someone, it better mean that they're pretty unstoppable.

The other thing is that there's no one to hate in this Super Bowl. There are too many feel-good stories. Last year, there was Bettis and winning in his home town (you knew he was from Detroit and the Super Bowl was played in Detroit and the Steelers won, right? Just wanted to make sure we covered that). Then there was the fact that the Steelers were the 6th seed. Sure, they tried to throw in some stuff about the fact that Matt Hasselbeck is really religious, but it was mostly Steelers storylines and Steelers fluff. In this game, you'd feel really good for either team. I mean, it's like the Colts are somehow a Cinderella story, even though they're favored by a full frickin' touchdown. It's weird.

So, really, the only "X" factor is whether or not the Bears play the "us against the world" card and say that, since some dude in Vegas said they were going to get their asses wiped up and down the field, the entire free world was against them. I don't know that that's gonna happen, but I think it might be their only shot.

The best shot the Bears have at winning is if they come out angry. Look at everyone on Indy's roster. They're a little too pretty, a little too polished, a little too nice to be football players, aren't they? If a team comes out and just beats on them like a rented red-headed step-mule for three hours, you get the feeling like they'd give it up. It's like your first girlfriend in high school. If you keep trying to stick your hand down her pants, she'll eventually stop swatting it away and let you do what you need to do. The Bears need to keep up the intensity, beat the hell out of them, and hopefully get their fingers in some warm apple pie late in the fourth quarter. That's their best chance to win.

And, with these two coaches, they're a little too close. They're a little too familiar with what their teams like to do on offense and defense. Especially defense. And, the whole secret to the Cover 2 that both teams run is the defensive line and their ability to create pressure. Think Dungy doesn't know the strengths and weaknesses of every lineman on Smith's roster? And vice versa? Think these two men haven't been spending extra time with their offensive linemen these past two weeks working on blocking techniques? They know each other's schemes, they know each other's "type" when it comes to personnel, and they know how the other coaches their players. I really think that this will end up being a wash. I don't see a lot of sacks or a lot of pressure on quarterbacks in this game.

And that means that it's up to Rex Grossman and Peyton Manning to make intelligent decisions and make precise, well timed throws. Intelligence. Precision. Timing. Sounds like three big parts of Manning's game, doesn't it? If you're thinking of which of these two quarterbacks is more likely to do something stupid with the football, you've got to bet the mortgage on Rex, right? Even if Manning has Dr. Heimlich on speed dial when it comes to big games, you've got to think that Manning will do more with what the defense gives him than Grossman will.

I think that'll be the difference. That and coaching. I have a great deal of admiration for Lovie Smith and what he's accomplished, but the man called a timeout with 2 seconds left when the other team had the ball in easy Hail Mary range. In a playoff game. After all, I made the mistake of taking Schottenheimer and Rivers over Bellichick and Brady. Coaching and quarterbacks are what's going to make the difference in this game. And while the gap between Manning and Dungy and Grossman and Smith isn't as wide as the gap between Bellichick and Brady and Schottenheimer and Rivers, it's enough.

But it's not worth 7 points. I stand by that. It's going to be a close game.

Unless one thing happens: Indy gets the ball to start the game and scores a quick touchdown. If that happens, I think that Rex, Lovie, and the entire Chicago coaching staff panics. They start calling too many passes too early. They don't let Rex get comfortable. They don't let Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones impose their will on the undersized front seven of the Colts. They decide to get into a shootout with the Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. And that never ends well.

Ask Tom Brady.

Prediction: Colts 27, Bears 24.

Tomlin or Epps?

The last post was kinda heavy, so I thought I'd lighten it up a bit by playing a game that Weidman thought of called "Tomlin or Epps?" He noticed that Tomlin looks almost exactly like actor Omar Epps (who played Willie "Mays" Hayes in Major League 2, subbing in for Wesley Snipes). Check out the pictures below. Can you guess which one is Tomlin and which one is Epps?

A.

B.

C.

D.

E.

F.

G.

H.

Tomlin Era Begins

I was really pulling for Russ Grimm, but I think that, ultimately, I agree with the Steelers on this one. Coaching (and the NFL in general) is a young man's game. Russ Grimm is 46, Tomlin's 34. If both coached as long as Cowher, Tomlin would be 49, Grimm would be 61. Look at Bill Parcells. Look at Marty Schottenheimer. The guys just look used up. It's too busy of a schedule. Too much pressure, too many interviews, too many things to keep track of for an older person.

My Dad's going to be 61 in August. He's already retired and sometimes leaves me a message at work on a Saturday. And there's nothing wrong with that. Well, nothing terribly wrong with that. But, would I want him coaching the Steelers? I think we know the answer to that one.

So, after much consideration and deliberation, I've decided that it's the best move for the Steelers. For two years from now and twenty years from now (when Tomlin will still only be 54). The weird thing is that I think it's a bad idea for the same reasons I think it's a good idea.

Really, there are three main aspects to the hiring that have Pros and Cons. In my opinion, the Pros outweigh the Cons.

1. He's from outside the organization.
2. All of his defensive experience is in a system that is completely different (both in terms of philosophy and personnel) than the current defense the Steelers run.
3. He's African-American.

1. Pros:

While the Steelers are still in good shape from a talent standpoint and, if no more coaches leave, a continuity standpoint, some tough decisions need to be made in the next three years. Everyone and their hamster is becoming a free agent after next season, Troy's a free agent after 2008, Ben after 2009. Colbert makes a lot of the personnel decisions for the Steelers, but Cowher always had the final say. Do you think Cowher would've cut Joey Porter? Aaron Smith? Cut ties with an underachieving Clark Haggans? Look at how long it took him to drop a Duce. A new guy has no allegiances. He can make sound, logical decisions.

Cons:

We don't have the personnel to change over to the Cover 2 right now. It will probably take several years to go to the Cover 2. If Grimm took over, nothing would change. Arians would run a similar offense to Whisenhunt, LeBeau would run his same defense, and the only thing that would be different would be that Grimm would head it up, not Cowher. Grimm would offer a new perspective on pending free agents, making tweaks to the existing system, and putting his mark on the team, but it will would still be the same team it was under Cowher's watch. And, like him or not, Cowher had tremendous success in Pittsburgh. Keeping up that tradition of winning and that attitude would have made for a smooth transition for Steeler Nation and the players.

2. Pros:

We needed to make a decision (or, really, several tough decisions) on the defense at some point, probably well in advance of the 2007 season. Haggans, Porter, and Smith are all going to be free agents after 2007. That's a big part of our defense, but it's also a bunch of guys that only fit in the 3-4 scheme. Smith's big enough to be a tackle in the Cover 2, and Porter and Haggans are too big, too slow, and too much of a liability in coverage to be linebackers in the Cover 2. Farrior was actually an outside linebacker before he signed with us and Foote... okay, Foote's gotta go, too. He's too slow to play middle linebacker in the Cover 2. But Farrior's good to go! So, instead of signing those guys to big extensions, go out and draft someone or sign someone who fits. If they were going to leave anyway, it's better to have a guy that knows how to coach an alternative defense. Plus which, with a number of teams switching to the 3-4, the Steelers can no longer grab a guy like Porter in the 3rd round or a guy like Smith in the 6th round. Teams are looking for undersized college ends to play outside linebackers in the 3-4 and undersized college tackles to play end in the 3-4. It was getting tougher and tougher to find those bargain picks in the later rounds the last few years. Which is why our linebackers and defensive line lacks depth. We either had to blow it up and find new guys or change the system. Changing the system might actually be easier.

Cons:

Teams are also looking for pass rushing defensive ends. And we need two of those. And explosive defensive tackles. And, we pretty much need two of those, or we need Casey Hampton to lose 40 pounds. That means we need 3 or 4 linemen and at least 2 linebackers. I think Troy and Anthony Smith will be good as safeties in the Cover 2 and Ike Taylor couldn't be any worse in the Cover 2 than he was in LeBeau's defense last year. I also think Bryant McFadden is going to be an excellent Cover 2 cornerback. Really then, all we need is 3 or 4 linemen and at least 2 linebackers. That should be easy, right? Just go to the store and pick them up. Which is why I'm baffled by the decision to keep LeBeau. I understand that Tomlin might need a guy around who's been there, done that, but if they're going to make intelligent decisions about the future of this team and this defense, the sooner they blow it up and take their medicine, the better. Holding off a year only tightens the noose around Tomlin's neck because of #3.

3. Pros:

Historically, minority coaches have outperformed white coaches. In terms of victories, divsion championships, playoff appearances, etc. Everything but the Super Bowl (which will change, one way or the other, in two weeks). Minority coaches seem to command more respect from their players and seem to be more motivated to succeed. Since they're in the minority and are judged on a smaller sample size, they have less room for error. This motivates them to coach well and win games.

Cons:

I don't have the balls to say it point blank, so I'll say it like this: Ben Roethlisberger had 23 interceptions last year in 14 games. Kordell Stewart never threw more than 18 and played all 16 games in that season. Yet, we all made excuses for Big Ben this season and never let Kordell rest. Would someone ever throw a beer at Big Ben? I understand that we won us a Super Bowl and that he had two great years before the disaster that was 2006. But Kordell saved the 2000 season and brought us back to a respectable 9-7 after 1-3 start. Had the defense not imploded against the Eagles that year, we would've been 10-6 and gone to the playoffs. He went 13-3 in 2001, took us to the AFC Championship Game, and was foiled by Bellichick and Brady (not that uncommon as it turns out). He was benched in the 3rd game of the 2002 season and never got his job back, even after he won 2 games in relief of Tommy Maddox. I know it probably also has to do with how much we pay Ben, how little we paid Kordell in comparison, and where the two QBs were drafted, but it really has made me think. Ben's got a better attitude and he's more polished with the media than Kordell ever was, but really, how much slack is he getting cut because he's white and how little to Kordell get because he wasn't?

I mention all of this because the next couple of seasons (and possibly beyond) are going to be rough on defense. Our linebackers are old, our cornerbacks were never all that great, and our Pro Bowl strong safety might leave for greener pastures. While they're tearing down the defense and building it back up, how much slack will Steeler Nation cut a black coach? It's not his fault that everyone's contract is up after next season. He didn't let the linebackers get too old without any depth behind them. Remember what I said about Hoover and Coolidge and Campo and Gailey before? Cowher might have left Tomlin in the same situation. And, while the fans really didn't ever cut Cowher a lot of slack, I think they'll cut Tomlin less because he's not Cowher and he's not white. I'm just throwing it out there.

The good news is that, if history is anything to shout about, the coach of the Steelers and the ownership of the Steelers don't really seem to care what Steeler Nation thinks. And they don't let the fans dictate policy.

I just hope they give Tomlin enough time.

Super Bowl is Set

Man, that was a hell of a game in Indy. If you think about it, it was tied at 21-21 with five minutes left in the third quarter, but ended up being 38-34. That's a lot of action to pack into the last 20 minutes of the game.

I still can't believe that Peyton didn't choke, that Brady was the one with the game ending interception, and that the Colts finally friggin' beat the Patriots.

All that I care is that the Patriots aren't going to the Super Bowl and I was really, really, really dreading a Pats-Bears match-up. Once again, look at the ugly game they played on Sunday night earlier this season. I didn't want to see another one of those.

And, this is going to make me sound like a racist or an asshole, but I'm a little upset that an African-American coach is going to win the Super Bowl by default. It's big news that one finally made it (after Denny Green did his best Cowher impression for the Vikings all those years), but I wish that Lovie Smith was able to outduel Bill Bellichick to win the honor. Or, the other way around with Dungy and Payton.

Don't get me wrong, I'm excited about it. I think it's monumental. I hope Mike Tomlin becomes the second African-American coach to win the Super Bowl. I just wish the first time was a victory that had to be fought for, not something that was inevitable.

Then again, minority coaches have been fighting for a long time. I'll shut up.

And, to prepare you for the Super Bowl, here are the storylines that will be beaten to death in the next two weeks:

1. The Bears have a great defense. The Colts have a great offense. Discuss. Until your ears bleed. And your brain numbs. And you no longer want to think about the Cover 2. Or the Tampa 2. Or the fact that, when you were a child, you did a number 2 in your pants.
2. Did you know that Lovie Smith and Tony Dungy are close friends? Really. Smith was on Dungy's staff in Tampa. And they coached together. And they're still close. Lovie was at the KC-Indy game. Seriously, he was! I know they didn't cut away to him at all when there was a break in the action, but he was there. And they're both great people. And they were coaches together. And they still talk. And they get along. And Lovie was at the KC-Indy game. And Jerome Bettis is from Detroit.
3. Lovie is his real name. He's named after his Aunt (or maybe his grandmother). His Mom decided, before she knew he was going to be a boy, that she would name her first child Lovie. And she stuck to her guns. At least she didn't name him Sue.
4. Both teams are happy to be at the Super Bowl. It's a dream come true. May the best team win. They're going to go out, practice, work on the game plan, and give it their all on the field. They might even give 111%. We don't know. The one thing that we do know is that each team's players know that they're playing a great team with a great record and a lot of talent.
5. One thing that makes the NFL happy, but is going to make the press miserable, is that I don't think there's a guy on either team that's going to start mouthing off, say that someone on the other team molests goats, and then gets arrested. I don't think there will be a lot of trash talk and I don't think there will be any arrests. Which is a bummer.
6. Can Peyton win the big one? Is it enough that he just made it to the Super Bowl? Do you trust Rex Grossman? How many stories can we do about the quarterbacks? I put the over/under at 315. And I'm taking the over.

Championship Game Picks

Saints-Bears:

I still like the Saints. I just have this feeling about Sean Payton. I know, I know, it's stupid to pick against the Bears, at home, with that defense, and with the Saints being pretty shitty on defense.

I keep thinking about all the weapons New Orleans has an offense. I keep thinking about the fact that Sean Payton knows how to properly use those weapons. And, I keep thinking about the fact that Mike Holmgren should blame himself, not the officials (he hasn't blamed them yet, right? He will.) for the loss in the Divisional Round. The Bears did everything they could to lose that game and Holmgren did absolutely nothing to try to win it. He neglected to use the one weapon that he had at his disposal that the Bears could not stop: Shaun Alexander.

Payton won't make that mistake. Aside from calling a flip play with three minutes left in the Philly game (which wouldn't have been a bad call if Reggie Bush hadn't fumbled it), I haven't seen the guy make a mistake all year. If there is an opportunity to exploit this defense, Payton will find it.

And, Chicago just doesn't seem ready. Maybe Grossman needs another year. Maybe Lovie Smith needs a brain transplant. Maybe everyone on defense needs another year. I'm just not sure. The only thing I know is that I don't trust this Bears team in a big game at home with everything on the line and all the pressure on them.

Plus which, if the ever-popular Concern Rays have anything to say about it, the Saints win easily. C'mon. Everyone that isn't a Bears fan is rooting for the Saints right now. Admit it. It's a great story and they're a fun team to watch. Even the officials gave them the benefit of the doubt in the Philly game.

Colts-Patriots:

All of LaDainian Tomlinson's whining aside, there was something downright fishy about New England's celebration in San Diego. I just keep wondering... didn't these guys win three Super Bowls in this decade? Haven't they won games that were bigger than this and closer than this? Why was this win worthy of such a huge celebration? It's not as though these are the same 2001 Patriots. It's not as though no one gave them a chance. Most of the sports world wasn't surprised at all when the Patriots won. So... why did they seem surprised?

You could say that they were celebrating because they knew that they faced Indy and Peyton Manning in the AFC Championship Game. So, basically, it was like they knew they were going to the Super Bowl. But... still... I don't remember them celebrating like that when they beat Indy to advance after the 2003 season. Or, ya know, both times they beat us to go to the Super Bowl. Let's just not talk about that.

It just looks to me like the Patriots are the team that's "just happy to be there" and the Colts are the grizzled veterans who are looking to take care of business. I'm not saying that it makes any difference, or that the Patriots will lose because it, it's just... weird. Really, really weird.

As a result, I have to take New England in this one. Which means they'll win the Super Bowl. Again. And, really, we'll have to call them the greatest dynasty of the Super Bowl era. It pains me to say it, but it's true. With free agency, roster turnover, coaching losses, everyone gunning for them, playing in the superior conference, they've managed to be as dominant as the NFL will allow nowadays. Much more dominant than they're supposed to be, in fact.

The Steelers had the greatest dynasty in the era of dynasties. The Patriots have one of the greatest dynasties of all time in an era specifically structured to prevent dynasties. They say you can't compare teams across eras, but that's my argument.

And, the Patriots Won

I was 3-0 going into the Patriots-Chargers game and really thought I'd make it 4-0 when Marlon McCree had that late interception. Of course, he fumbled, the Patriots recovered, and that was pretty much that. It was a crappy game to watch, because neither team looked like they wanted to win the game. Finally, the Patriots just said, "Hey, ya know, if it's not too much trouble, I guess we were thinking of picking up this victory. Is that okay? You're sure? Because we can... oh, okay. You want us to win. Okay."

Random Thoughts From the Weekend:

1. Sean Payton is awesome. He's the best offensive playcaller out there. With all the weapons the Saints have and the zone he's been in all season, I would not want to play the Saints if I were the Bears. And, with how badly the Bears played yesterday, I would not want to be them anyway. So... I guess that prediction is still valid.
2. The CBS executives have to absolutely be cumming in their slacks at the prospect of a Colts-Saints Super Bowl. Colts-Saints = 41-38 shootout. 41-38 shootout = great ratings. Great ratings = good times for the CBS executives. And, out of all the match-ups available, that's the one I'd most like to see. I don't think that's the one we will see, but that's the one I'd most like to see.
3. The Colts have won both of their playoff games in spite of Peyton Manning, not because of him. I can't tell if that's a good thing or a bad thing heading into the AFC Championship Game. I mean, Brady didn't play real well in the San Diego game, but he did just enough to win. As per usual. Man, that guy's great. I really wish we had plucked him out of Michigan instead of the Patriots. Ah, well.
4. If Sean Payton was coaching the Steelers this year, we would've won 12 games. And, now that I think about it, maybe Whisenhunt's the next Payton. I could see the Cardinals winning 12 games next year in a diluted NFC if he is.
5. The Saints are going to maul the Bears on Sunday. Seriously. I think they jump out to an early lead, Grossman starts throwing picks like crazy, Griese comes in, and the Saints go to Miami.
6. Maybe I just said that because there's no way in hell I want to see a Bears-Patriots Super Bowl. Did you catch their game in the regular season? That made the Chargers-Patriots game this weekend look like Kate Beckinsale. Just an ugly, ugly game.
7. I just don't see a possible way that the Colts beat the Patriots on Sunday. I mean, I'm totally going to watch every snap, but I just don't think Peyton has it in him. The Colts have been able to win in spite of Manning because they've played teams that have shitty offenses that are focused on running the ball. The Patriots have a good offense that is focused on throwing the ball. They'll come out running, just to fuck with the Colts, have success, then throw all over the place. And Tony Dungy will Cowher his way through the game, running his standard game plan, treating it like it's just another game, and the Patriots will be all over them on defense. Seriously. This could get ugly.
8. Now that Whisenhunt is out of the picture and I don't need to worry about him anymore, the Steelers really need to hire a coach. I don't care who it is at this point, just hire someone. I mean, when the Arizona Cardinals beat you to the punch on something, there's a serious issue. Maybe the Rooneys forgot how to hire a coach after all these years?

Ah, Crap

I still can't believe the Steelers are interviewing Chan Gailey. Can't believe it. Why? How? I've had 16 hours to process it (granted, I was asleep for 8 of that and, trust me, I didn't dream about Chan Gailey - something about not having enough money to fix the plumbing). I still can't get over it.

Why? He left the Steelers (something I still don't forgive him for, even though he was well within his rights to do so and if it happened today, I wouldn't have a problem with it, I just didn't understand how the NFL works in 1997), then laid an egg with the Cowboys, then ran and hid, now he coaches Georgia Tech.

First of all, there are those that will argue that he didn't lay an egg at Dallas. After all, he made the playoffs both years. But, he didn't do what he should've done, what Barry Switzer didn't do, and what, oddly enough, only Dave Campo had the stones to do. He didn't start filtering in young players as the Big Three (Aikman, Irvin, Smith) started to decline. Now, Barry Switzer is an idiot. And I still can't believe he beat Cowher to win a Super Bowl. But Chan Gailey should've known better.

Herbert Hoover is usually blamed for the Great Depression, but it really happened as a result of changes in fiscal policy made by Calvin Coolidge. Gailey's Coolidge, Campo's Hoover. Everyone looks and says, "Hey, Gailey made it to the playoffs two years in a row, but Campo took the same team and went 15-33." Well, no. Gailey got the last two good years out of the Big Three, then dropped the mess in Campo's lap after ignoring the problem for two years.

I bring this up because we have a lot of older players that will soon be passing their primes. Gailey will keep them in if they keep winning and not give a young player a chance. Sorta like Cowher, but more severe. I seriously believe that he set the franchise back four years.

Don't want that to happen here. I'd prefer Whisenhunt over Bailey.

But, I'd also like to announce that I fully endorse Russ Grimm as the next coach of your Pittsburgh Steelers. It looks like they're leaning towards the two current assistants, I'm not really excited about either of the outside guys (Rivera and Tomlin, and you know my feelings on Gailey), and I really, really don't want Whisenhunt.

For a few reasons:

1. If Whisenhunt gets hired, I have a feeling that we'll party like it's 2003. Too much passing, too much like Zeroue and Tommy Gun. Too many turnovers (yes, more than last year), and too much loss of identity.
2. If anyone thinks that the coddling of Big Ben is bad now, just wait and see what happens if Whisenhunt takes over. It will be brought to a whole new level. And, after this season (and kinda 2005), I think the kid needs a swift kick in the ass. Grimm will give that to him, Whisenhunt will hold his hand and stroke his hair and tell him that everything's OK. We don't need that.
3. He turned down the Oakland job. Okay, you could say that he had a feeling that Cowher would retire and that he'd be first (or at least second) in line for the job. You could say that Oakland was a bad situation and he would have been a fool to coach there. You could say that, since Art Shell already got fired, that Whis dodged a bullet. And, you'd probably be right. However, I can't get past the fact that there are only 32 jobs like this on the entire planet and Whis turned it down. That's like turning down the opportunity to be the CEO of Hewlett-Packard just because they had a few down quarters. I understand that the Raiders are bad, but a lot of their failure this year can be chalked up to Art Shell. With a better offensive scheme and better coaches (Whis would've hired a better staff, as it would've been impossible to hire a worse staff), the Raider's might have won 6 games this year, maybe more with that defense. Still, there are only 32 of these jobs on the entire planet. If you are offered one, you take it. If you do not take it, you're either dumber than Art Shell, or you have no confidence in your abilities. I'm all for loyalty, but not so much for stupidity and lack of confidence in a head coach.

Okay, I'll have to be honest. I hadn't thought the Rivera/Tomlin thing through very well. That's why I endorsed either of them as being better than the two current assistants.

That was dumb. Very, very dumb. While I've given up on Mike Singletary (still who I'd hire if I were in charge, but thank the Sweet Baby Jesus I'm not), just blindly backing someone because they're a fresh face is a dumb idea.

And, endorsing, in any capacity, two guys that are from the Dungy tree is very, very, very, even collosally, dumb. Nothing against Tony Dungy. If he wanted to coach the team, I would actually be okay with that. But, everyone from the Dungy tree runs the Cover 2 (or, sometimes call the "Tampa 2"). We don't have the personnel for that. We'd actually need to completely overhaul the defense. Completely. None of our linebackers fit it. None of our safeties (not even the reserve guys). Maybe Ike Taylor, possibly Bryant McFadden, but no other cornerback. And certainly, definitely, most assuredly, NONE of our defensive linemen. So... McFadden and Taylor will be about 35 when we have the right personnel to run the Tampa 2. Right around the time either Tomlin or Rivera will have coached the Steelers for about as long as Cowher.

The solution, then, is to say that the new guy needs to keep Dick LeBeau and LeBeau's defense. So... why hire a defensive guy, then? And, if you're keeping everyone around, why not hire a current assistant? If you're looking to change only the head coach and none of the assistants, why not promote one of the assistants?

And, before we get too far ahead of ourselves, I'm not trying to say that Russ Grimm wins this job by default. I think he's an excellent teacher, an exceptional motivator, and he commands the respect of his players. I doubt he'll be as fiery as Cowher, but that's probably not what we need at this point anyway. I think we need a steady hand to right the ship, make sure no one slacks off, and we need to keep playing Steelers football.

Grimm understands what that means. And Grimm will make sure that the proud tradition of the Steelers continues. He went to Pitt. He grew up in Western Pennsylvania. He gets it. And, I would have to assume that he will do anything in his power to not be known as the guy that crippled the franchise.

And, it has been said by me and others, that the Steelers don't tend to promote from within. The last time they did, the coach only lasted a year. That was two guys before Noll. Which was 1965. Which was 41 years ago. Which was 12 years before I was born.

I think it's time.

Playoff Preview

I'm going to break down the NFC first, just to get it out of the way. I have a feeling that I have better odds of tag teaming the Jessicas (Simpson, Biel, Alba) than the NFC does of winning the Super Bowl. But, they've got to send someone, right?

Here's how I see it breaking down:

Bears vs. Seahawks: Bears. Plain and simple. Bears beat the Seahawks by at least 115 points earlier in the year. Sure, that was before Rex Grossman started to suck serious donkey balls, but it was also before absolutely everyone in Seattle's secondary went on injured reserve. Seattle needed a miracle to beat Dallas last week and Dallas was running on fumes. The Bears are rested, they're a better team, and the Seahawks were outscored for the season this year. They won 4 games in the last two minutes. If Josh Brown misses half those field goals (and three of them weren't gimmies by any stretch), the Seahawks are sitting at home right now, reading this blog. Hi guys! Still upset about the Super Bowl? Well, you'll have plenty of time to think about it after this weekend.

That's not a revenge pick. I really don't see how it's possible that the Seahawks win.

Saints vs. Eagles: This stat is going to come back to bite me in the ass, but here goes: In the Divisional Round of the playoffs, the home team is 51-13. Pretty good odds the Saints (home team) are going to win, right? I'm taking the Saints because, when it comes to playoff time, it comes down to talent and the quarterback. Drew Brees is the best quarterback in the NFC bracket and the Saints have the most talent on offense.

Plus which, don't you get the feeling that Sean Payton is going to pull a triple-reverse-flea-flicker-statue-of-liberty-throw-back-misdirection-option-pass out of his ass? In two of the bigger games for the Saints this year (Steelers and Cowboys), Payton called some of the craziest plays I've ever seen. He called an onside kick with a lead against Dallas. Sure, they lost to us, but they crushed Dallas. They also beat the Eagles earlier this year and that was back when the Eagles still had McNabb.

I think Garcia's storybook season ends in disppointment on Sunday. Too much homefield advantage for the Saints (who wants to go into New Orleans and give those people something else to be depressed about), too much Brees, too much talent on offense. And, the big weakness the Saints have (shitty linebackers), is the one thing Philly can't take advantage of.

That means that the NFC Championship Game is Saints-Bears. I realize that this is an insane statement, but I gotta go with the Saints. I just have this feeling like Sean Payton has been waiting all his life to call plays in the Super Bowl. Oh, wait. He already did that. As the offensive coordinator of the Giants in Super Bowl XXXV. And that didn't end well.

My point is still that they have the best quarterback and the most talent. If I were a Bears fan, I would not be looking forward to the prospect of Rex Grossman leading my team to the Super Bowl with the game on the line. Now, if Lovie Smith is smart, he'll take the game out of the hands of his QB and just keep handing the ball to Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. But, I don't think Lovie Smith is smart. And I don't trust this defense in a big game. Remember last year when the Bears had only Steve Smith to worry about and he ended up getting 200 yards? Now they need to worry about Brees, both receivers, Reggie Bush, and Deuce McAllister.

And, the defense needs to worry about the fact that Grossman might fumble or throw a pick that's returned for a touchdown, or fumble or throw a pick that gives the Saints a short field, or fumble or throw a pick when he needs to drive the team to victory, or... well, you get the idea.

I also really like Sean Payton. I think he's an excellent coach, a hell of a game manager, a talented play caller, and he's not afraid to take chances. Add all that to the talent the Saints have on offense, the fact that Lovie Smith possesses none of the coaching qualities mentioned above, and the fact that, deep down in their hearts, I think everyone (even players on opposing teams) wants to see the Saints in the Super Bowl, and New Orleans wins.

AFC:

Hated Ravens vs. Colts:

Home teams are 51-13 in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Peyton Manning is 2-7 on the road in the playoffs. The Colts have advanced past the divisional round once in the time Manning's been in the league. The Colts lost to the Steelers (another AFC North team) last year. Manning's the biggest choke artist ever.

Still, I gotta take the Colts in this one. Yes. I'm insane. I know. And I'm not letting the fact that I hate the Ravens cloud my judgement. At least, I don't think so.

The Colts run defense blows. But, they also held Larry Johnson (who's about 643 times better than Jamal Lewis) to 32 yards last week. I had Lewis on one fantasy team this year and Johnson on another. Guess who started every week and guess who sat every week. I even started Edgerrin James over Jamal Lewis and was never disappointed.

The best way to beat the Colts is to do what the Steelers did last year. On offense, work the ball to the tight ends early and take advantage of the soft spot in the heart of the Cover 2. When that tightens up, get the ball out to your receivers on the perimeter for big plays in the deep middle and up the sidelines. Rinse, repeat. The key, though, is that you need to be able to run the ball well between the tackles to take time off the clock and to slow down Indy's line. They're small and fast. The best way to counter that is to beat them into submission, then throw the ball over them. The Ravens can do one of those things: Get the ball to their tight end. I don't see them being successful on offense.

On defense, the best way to get shredded by Peyton Manning is to be overly aggressive, impatient, and blitz too much. The hated Ravens have been successful this year (especially against us - Christ!) by taking advantage of their aggressive playmakers, forcing the issue, and blitzing too much. This tactic works well against young QBs, but not against calm, calculating players like Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning. Even if the Ravens are patient (the Chiefs were patient last week and had three interceptions), they don't have that one guy that can take over a game. Joey Porter did that last year, with some help from Farrior, Haggans, and of course Troy. They can't pressure the QB without blitzing like crazy. Peyton will take what they give him, plod down the field and frustrate the hated Ravens with dump passes to Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai, and the Ravens will lose patience. They'll start to blitz. They'll start to jump routes. They'll get abused by pump fakes and double moves. And Manning will make them pay.

The Ravens will get crushed if they don't change their game plan on defense. They don't have the personnel to do what the Steelers did last year (and what the Patriots have done historically). It comes down to talent and quarterback. Edge goes to Manning and the Colts offense. Watch the other two games these teams have played the last two years. The Ravens can't move the ball and eventually crack on defense. Happens every time.

Chargers vs. Patriots:

Talent and quarterback. I've said that about 3.8 trillion times thus far. So... who do I pick when it comes down to Tom Brady vs. Philip Rivers? Philip Rivers.

I have the utmost respect for Tom Brady. I wish the Steelers had him. I just don't think the Patriots can stop LaDainian Tomlinson and the talent New England has on offense can't hang with the talent the Chargers have on defense.

The Patriots had a pretty soft schedule this year. The only defense they faced that could create any kind of pass rush was the Colts. And they lost to the Colts. The Chargers lead the league in sacks and are getting stronger in the secondary. Their front seven is the best in the league. Maroney and Dillon won't be able to run the ball and Tom Brady will be ravaged by Shawne Merriman and Shaun Philips. The Chargers just have too many horses.

The one thing that makes me very, very, VERY tenative with this pick is that it's Tom Brady, grizzled veteran with an 11-1 playoff record vs. Philip Rivers, basically a rookie with no playoff experience. And, the greatest Big Game coach of all time, Bill Bellichick vs. the WORST Big Game coach of all time, Marty Schottenheimer.

Still, this year's version of the Patriots reminds me of last year's version of the Patriots. Last year's version slaughtered an overmatched opponent at home, then went on the road and lost to a team that matches up very well against them. Same deal this year. Same result. Tentatively.

Super Bowl:

Chargers over Saints. This game is gonna suck, but probably feature a lot of scoring (especially by the Saints when they're down by three scores late in the game). The NFC has been, by far, the inferior conference thus far this century. The one thing they've always been able to do, though, is roll out that one "Power Team" that actually stands a chance against an AFC opponent. Not this year. Too many teams have too many holes. And, the most talented team (Dallas) has already been eliminated. Sure, they had a lot of emotional issues and baggage, but they also had the most talent. One Tony Romo snap later, they're sitting at home, reading this blog. Well, probably not.

Bonus Weidman Prediction!

Weidman believes the NFC has no shot of winning the Super Bowl, and rightfully so. As a result, he didn't analyze the NFC bracket as much as I did. Wish I'd thought of that.

He likes the Eagles. He likes the way they're playing, likes their experience, likes Andy Reid, and thinks the team will rally around Jeff Garcia. I can't argue with that too much, since the Eagles do seem to be getting hot at the right time.

In the AFC, he sees Peyton pulling another choke job (can't really argue with that logic, but I just don't like the match-ups) and the Patriots absolutely smoking the Chargers in San Diego. His feeling is that you can't go against Brady and Bellichick against Rivers and Schottenheimer. Again, can't really argue against (although I have), given previous results.

He then has the Ravens over the Patriots and an All Birdie Super Bowl. Of course, Ravens over Eagles.

It's hard to swallow another Ravens championship, but you gotta love that defense. At least that's what he says.

End of an Era

So, I started thinking that Cowher was going to leave around Tuesday or Wednesday, but I didn't post anything because I wanted to keep the post where I was in denial up as long as possible. To show the world that I'm an idiot. And, in my defense, I did say that I was probably the only idiot that believed he was saying. So there.

Since I had built myself up for it, it wasn't a collosal disappointment. Kinda like the fact that I stopped holding out hope for the Steelers making the playoffs when they started out 2-6.

However, it still sucks. But it's more weird than anything. I watched the Indy-KC game last night and thought, "Wow. We're not in the playoffs this year. That's weird." And then I thought, "Wow. Cowher's not going to be coaching the Steelers next year. That's weirder."

Us not making the playoffs is a seasonal thing. Cowher leaving is a permanent thing.

Whatever his reasons, I understand. If he wanted to spend more time with his family, I understand. If he wanted a bigger contract, I understand. Maybe he just wanted to take a year of paid vacation, watch some women's basketball (item #31,564,089 of "Things that I'd do if I had a year off," but I digress), and come back strong with a different team. Maybe he was just tired of coaching the Steelers. There was such a look of relief and accomplishment on his face when he was finally able to hand Dan Rooney that Lombardi Trophy. Maybe he felt he had accomplished all he had left to accomplish with this franchise.

I just wish he had let us know that in March of last year. I wish he had retired then and we could start re-building then. Fewer expectations going into the season, a coach that actually cared about the outcome of the game, etc. Wouldn't have stopped the turnovers necessarily (which is what really killed the team), but it would've made the season easier to swallow.

To replace Cowher, they're going to interview Russ Grimm, Ken Whisenhunt, Ron Rivera (defensive coordinator of the Chicago Bears), and Cam Cameron (offensive coordinator of the San Diego Chargers). If they're looking to hire an offensive coordinator, I hope they go with Cameron. Whisenhunt had a nice run towards the end of the 2005 season. He helped us win a Super Bowl. But, he's not ready to be a coach yet. Besides which, he'll probably get an offer from someone else.

I would prefer us to hire a defensive guy, but not if that means that LeBeau has to step down as defensive coordinator. And, I'd really like for us to hire Mike Singletary. He's smart, he's focused, and for being a great player, he's a hell of a teacher. Usually, people who were great players (Singletary is in the Hall of Fame) can't teach anything to current players, because everything they did just came naturally to them. Not so with Singletary. Watch the footage from last year's Senior Bowl and you'll see what I mean. Go to YouTube and search for Mike Singletary. Check out the first clip that shows up. Look at his eyes. Raise your hand if you want to see those eyes and that intensity on the Steelers sideline next year.

My hand is raised. But I need it to type.

While this may seem like the end of the world, keep in mind that the Rooneys have an exceptional track record for hiring the right guy. Given the stability of the organization and the talent we have in place, we've got the most attractive job in the NFL. Not just open jobs, any jobs. We'll get the guy that we want.

I just hope it's Singletary.

Cowher

I'm probably the only idiot that thinks this (well, my buddy Laszlo happens to agree with me), but I really think that Cowher's going to stick around.

I keep thinking back to Sunday's game and I keep thinking of Willie Parker's fumble and Willie Colon's personal foul. Those, in my opinion, are the two reasons that Cowher is going to sign an extension and coach another 4 or 5 seasons.

Let's start with Willie Parker's fumble. At that point, it was either early in the 4th quarter or almost at the end of the third. It was 7-3. If Parker scores there, we go up 14-3, Cowher puts in Davenport for the rest of the game, Ben attempts only two more passes, we continue to frustrate Carson Palmer (which we only seem to be able to do in Cincinnati), and we come out with a 14-10 or a 14-6 victory. Very dry, very boring, but still the same end result: 8-8.

The season ends on a very ho-hum, average kind of note.

Instead, Parker fumbles, the Bungles score a quick touchdown, and the game becomes exciting again. Cowher puts Parker right back in the game and gives him the first carry of the next drive. He trusted his player and his player delivered a touchdown when it mattered.

Even though he didn't show it much this season, Cowher's an emotional guy. He's an optimistic guy. He can talk all he wants to about getting away from the emotion of the season and settling down and looking at things objectively, but when he does look back at this season, he's going to remember what it felt like on that sideline, watching Santonio Holmes streaking past him for the touchdown.

Look at his face right after the game. Not the press conferences that happened 30 minutes later, not the interviews that happened hours later, or even the interviews from the following day. He did not look like a man that was ready to stop coaching football when Holmes was going in for that touchdown.

And he didn't look like someone that was done coaching football when he chewed out Willie Colon.

He gave Willie "The Finger," the "Come here so that I can yell at you for two solid minutes, then slap you on the ass," Finger. Colon committed a personal foul, it was a dumb penalty, he's a rookie, and Cowher went, well... Cowher on him. He came out on the field, shouted Colon's first name several times, then proceeded to yell at Colon for two minutes, slap him on the ass, and send him out.

It looked like the Cowher from 1998 that almost tackled someone on Jacksonville's special teams. It looked like Cowher of 2005, before Ben rushed for that last first down we needed and Cowher was able to relax.

And Cowher relaxed in the off-season. He watched his girls play basketball. He watched, relaxed, as the Steelers went through a crazy set of mini-camps, their first round draft choice was arrested twice, and Big Ben almost died twice.

He watched, relaxed, as we went 0-4 in the pre-season. 2-6 to start the regular season. He watched the turnovers, the dumb penalties, the lack of discipline, the poor tackling, the lack of intensity. And he was fine with it.

But, yesterday, in the heat of the moment, he was definitely not relaxed. He was able to calm down by the time he met with the press, but what matters to me is what he showed on that sideline in the second half.

And, I don't know if it's possible, but the Rooneys need to put certain clauses in the contract that Cowher signs with them (assuming he's not just holding out for $8 million a year, which is also possible). The contract Cowher signs with them needs to stipulate the following:

1. If the NFL Films camera crew does not capture him saying, "Let's Go!" at least 35 times during the course of a game, the contract is voided.
2. He needs to wear a mask that has a saliva catching device in it. If it does not contain at least one ounce of saliva at the end of the game, the contract voids.
3. He needs to butt heads with at least one player that is wearing a helmet each game, or the contract voids.

If Cowher isn't going to be Cowher, I don't want him back. Seriously.

And, if he's just been posturing for more money this whole time, I definitely don't want him back.

One other thing: How quickly do you think the Browns would fire Romeo Crennel and hire Cowher once he became available? I say the over/under on that one is 38 minutes. And I'm taking the under.

Steelers vs. Bengals Review

I like the way this game turned out. It wasn't as close as the score would indicate, we tried desperately to lose the game at all costs, and ended up somehow winning.

What I liked about it was that it was the type of game we would've won in 2004 and 2005, but the type of game we've lost in 2006. Yet, we found some way to win.

And, I really think that it bodes well for 2007, whoever the coach may be.

I like Willie Colon, I think we'll be okay without Hartings, Ben's a good QB as long as the line gives him time. Santonio Holmes looks like he might not be half bad and is more explosive than I thought he was. He's not on Randle-El's level, but he's pretty damn close. After all, would any other receiver on the roster have been able to make that catch and run? Maybe Hines? Maybe?

And, going into next season, we still have Fast Willie and three good-to-great receivers. Even if we cut Cedrick Wilson (fingers crossed), we still have Washington, Holmes, and Hines. Add in Willie Reid and Sean Morrey and that's not too bad.

The defensive line, linebackers, and secondary will all be back. Provided that Joey Porter doesn't get cut or make too much noise about his contract.

The keys, as always, will be pressuring the QB with the linebackers on defense and the offensive line's ability to block in the running and passing games on offense.

I really don't think next season hinges on whether or not Cowher comes back. It might actually help if he doesn't.