Playoff Preview

I'm going to break down the NFC first, just to get it out of the way. I have a feeling that I have better odds of tag teaming the Jessicas (Simpson, Biel, Alba) than the NFC does of winning the Super Bowl. But, they've got to send someone, right?

Here's how I see it breaking down:

Bears vs. Seahawks: Bears. Plain and simple. Bears beat the Seahawks by at least 115 points earlier in the year. Sure, that was before Rex Grossman started to suck serious donkey balls, but it was also before absolutely everyone in Seattle's secondary went on injured reserve. Seattle needed a miracle to beat Dallas last week and Dallas was running on fumes. The Bears are rested, they're a better team, and the Seahawks were outscored for the season this year. They won 4 games in the last two minutes. If Josh Brown misses half those field goals (and three of them weren't gimmies by any stretch), the Seahawks are sitting at home right now, reading this blog. Hi guys! Still upset about the Super Bowl? Well, you'll have plenty of time to think about it after this weekend.

That's not a revenge pick. I really don't see how it's possible that the Seahawks win.

Saints vs. Eagles: This stat is going to come back to bite me in the ass, but here goes: In the Divisional Round of the playoffs, the home team is 51-13. Pretty good odds the Saints (home team) are going to win, right? I'm taking the Saints because, when it comes to playoff time, it comes down to talent and the quarterback. Drew Brees is the best quarterback in the NFC bracket and the Saints have the most talent on offense.

Plus which, don't you get the feeling that Sean Payton is going to pull a triple-reverse-flea-flicker-statue-of-liberty-throw-back-misdirection-option-pass out of his ass? In two of the bigger games for the Saints this year (Steelers and Cowboys), Payton called some of the craziest plays I've ever seen. He called an onside kick with a lead against Dallas. Sure, they lost to us, but they crushed Dallas. They also beat the Eagles earlier this year and that was back when the Eagles still had McNabb.

I think Garcia's storybook season ends in disppointment on Sunday. Too much homefield advantage for the Saints (who wants to go into New Orleans and give those people something else to be depressed about), too much Brees, too much talent on offense. And, the big weakness the Saints have (shitty linebackers), is the one thing Philly can't take advantage of.

That means that the NFC Championship Game is Saints-Bears. I realize that this is an insane statement, but I gotta go with the Saints. I just have this feeling like Sean Payton has been waiting all his life to call plays in the Super Bowl. Oh, wait. He already did that. As the offensive coordinator of the Giants in Super Bowl XXXV. And that didn't end well.

My point is still that they have the best quarterback and the most talent. If I were a Bears fan, I would not be looking forward to the prospect of Rex Grossman leading my team to the Super Bowl with the game on the line. Now, if Lovie Smith is smart, he'll take the game out of the hands of his QB and just keep handing the ball to Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. But, I don't think Lovie Smith is smart. And I don't trust this defense in a big game. Remember last year when the Bears had only Steve Smith to worry about and he ended up getting 200 yards? Now they need to worry about Brees, both receivers, Reggie Bush, and Deuce McAllister.

And, the defense needs to worry about the fact that Grossman might fumble or throw a pick that's returned for a touchdown, or fumble or throw a pick that gives the Saints a short field, or fumble or throw a pick when he needs to drive the team to victory, or... well, you get the idea.

I also really like Sean Payton. I think he's an excellent coach, a hell of a game manager, a talented play caller, and he's not afraid to take chances. Add all that to the talent the Saints have on offense, the fact that Lovie Smith possesses none of the coaching qualities mentioned above, and the fact that, deep down in their hearts, I think everyone (even players on opposing teams) wants to see the Saints in the Super Bowl, and New Orleans wins.

AFC:

Hated Ravens vs. Colts:

Home teams are 51-13 in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Peyton Manning is 2-7 on the road in the playoffs. The Colts have advanced past the divisional round once in the time Manning's been in the league. The Colts lost to the Steelers (another AFC North team) last year. Manning's the biggest choke artist ever.

Still, I gotta take the Colts in this one. Yes. I'm insane. I know. And I'm not letting the fact that I hate the Ravens cloud my judgement. At least, I don't think so.

The Colts run defense blows. But, they also held Larry Johnson (who's about 643 times better than Jamal Lewis) to 32 yards last week. I had Lewis on one fantasy team this year and Johnson on another. Guess who started every week and guess who sat every week. I even started Edgerrin James over Jamal Lewis and was never disappointed.

The best way to beat the Colts is to do what the Steelers did last year. On offense, work the ball to the tight ends early and take advantage of the soft spot in the heart of the Cover 2. When that tightens up, get the ball out to your receivers on the perimeter for big plays in the deep middle and up the sidelines. Rinse, repeat. The key, though, is that you need to be able to run the ball well between the tackles to take time off the clock and to slow down Indy's line. They're small and fast. The best way to counter that is to beat them into submission, then throw the ball over them. The Ravens can do one of those things: Get the ball to their tight end. I don't see them being successful on offense.

On defense, the best way to get shredded by Peyton Manning is to be overly aggressive, impatient, and blitz too much. The hated Ravens have been successful this year (especially against us - Christ!) by taking advantage of their aggressive playmakers, forcing the issue, and blitzing too much. This tactic works well against young QBs, but not against calm, calculating players like Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning. Even if the Ravens are patient (the Chiefs were patient last week and had three interceptions), they don't have that one guy that can take over a game. Joey Porter did that last year, with some help from Farrior, Haggans, and of course Troy. They can't pressure the QB without blitzing like crazy. Peyton will take what they give him, plod down the field and frustrate the hated Ravens with dump passes to Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai, and the Ravens will lose patience. They'll start to blitz. They'll start to jump routes. They'll get abused by pump fakes and double moves. And Manning will make them pay.

The Ravens will get crushed if they don't change their game plan on defense. They don't have the personnel to do what the Steelers did last year (and what the Patriots have done historically). It comes down to talent and quarterback. Edge goes to Manning and the Colts offense. Watch the other two games these teams have played the last two years. The Ravens can't move the ball and eventually crack on defense. Happens every time.

Chargers vs. Patriots:

Talent and quarterback. I've said that about 3.8 trillion times thus far. So... who do I pick when it comes down to Tom Brady vs. Philip Rivers? Philip Rivers.

I have the utmost respect for Tom Brady. I wish the Steelers had him. I just don't think the Patriots can stop LaDainian Tomlinson and the talent New England has on offense can't hang with the talent the Chargers have on defense.

The Patriots had a pretty soft schedule this year. The only defense they faced that could create any kind of pass rush was the Colts. And they lost to the Colts. The Chargers lead the league in sacks and are getting stronger in the secondary. Their front seven is the best in the league. Maroney and Dillon won't be able to run the ball and Tom Brady will be ravaged by Shawne Merriman and Shaun Philips. The Chargers just have too many horses.

The one thing that makes me very, very, VERY tenative with this pick is that it's Tom Brady, grizzled veteran with an 11-1 playoff record vs. Philip Rivers, basically a rookie with no playoff experience. And, the greatest Big Game coach of all time, Bill Bellichick vs. the WORST Big Game coach of all time, Marty Schottenheimer.

Still, this year's version of the Patriots reminds me of last year's version of the Patriots. Last year's version slaughtered an overmatched opponent at home, then went on the road and lost to a team that matches up very well against them. Same deal this year. Same result. Tentatively.

Super Bowl:

Chargers over Saints. This game is gonna suck, but probably feature a lot of scoring (especially by the Saints when they're down by three scores late in the game). The NFC has been, by far, the inferior conference thus far this century. The one thing they've always been able to do, though, is roll out that one "Power Team" that actually stands a chance against an AFC opponent. Not this year. Too many teams have too many holes. And, the most talented team (Dallas) has already been eliminated. Sure, they had a lot of emotional issues and baggage, but they also had the most talent. One Tony Romo snap later, they're sitting at home, reading this blog. Well, probably not.

Bonus Weidman Prediction!

Weidman believes the NFC has no shot of winning the Super Bowl, and rightfully so. As a result, he didn't analyze the NFC bracket as much as I did. Wish I'd thought of that.

He likes the Eagles. He likes the way they're playing, likes their experience, likes Andy Reid, and thinks the team will rally around Jeff Garcia. I can't argue with that too much, since the Eagles do seem to be getting hot at the right time.

In the AFC, he sees Peyton pulling another choke job (can't really argue with that logic, but I just don't like the match-ups) and the Patriots absolutely smoking the Chargers in San Diego. His feeling is that you can't go against Brady and Bellichick against Rivers and Schottenheimer. Again, can't really argue against (although I have), given previous results.

He then has the Ravens over the Patriots and an All Birdie Super Bowl. Of course, Ravens over Eagles.

It's hard to swallow another Ravens championship, but you gotta love that defense. At least that's what he says.