I haven't posted anything about the Super Bowl in a while and for that I apologize. Some of it is just that I was lazy, some of it is just that I was busy, but for the most part it's that I have no idea how to predict this game.
The line's 7, which seems more than a little fishy to me. The Colts haven't really been blowing people out as of late and this just seems like a weaker team to me. They're a lot like the St. Louis Cardinals this year. If they do manage to win the Super Bowl, everyone will look back on this team and say, "Really? This is the team that won? What about the 2005 squad? They were loaded. They didn't win in 2004? Peyton broke the TD record and they crushed everybody. They won in 2006? You're sure?" They just don't have that unstoppable feel about them. And, seriously, if you're going to lay seven points on someone, it better mean that they're pretty unstoppable.
The other thing is that there's no one to hate in this Super Bowl. There are too many feel-good stories. Last year, there was Bettis and winning in his home town (you knew he was from Detroit and the Super Bowl was played in Detroit and the Steelers won, right? Just wanted to make sure we covered that). Then there was the fact that the Steelers were the 6th seed. Sure, they tried to throw in some stuff about the fact that Matt Hasselbeck is really religious, but it was mostly Steelers storylines and Steelers fluff. In this game, you'd feel really good for either team. I mean, it's like the Colts are somehow a Cinderella story, even though they're favored by a full frickin' touchdown. It's weird.
So, really, the only "X" factor is whether or not the Bears play the "us against the world" card and say that, since some dude in Vegas said they were going to get their asses wiped up and down the field, the entire free world was against them. I don't know that that's gonna happen, but I think it might be their only shot.
The best shot the Bears have at winning is if they come out angry. Look at everyone on Indy's roster. They're a little too pretty, a little too polished, a little too nice to be football players, aren't they? If a team comes out and just beats on them like a rented red-headed step-mule for three hours, you get the feeling like they'd give it up. It's like your first girlfriend in high school. If you keep trying to stick your hand down her pants, she'll eventually stop swatting it away and let you do what you need to do. The Bears need to keep up the intensity, beat the hell out of them, and hopefully get their fingers in some warm apple pie late in the fourth quarter. That's their best chance to win.
And, with these two coaches, they're a little too close. They're a little too familiar with what their teams like to do on offense and defense. Especially defense. And, the whole secret to the Cover 2 that both teams run is the defensive line and their ability to create pressure. Think Dungy doesn't know the strengths and weaknesses of every lineman on Smith's roster? And vice versa? Think these two men haven't been spending extra time with their offensive linemen these past two weeks working on blocking techniques? They know each other's schemes, they know each other's "type" when it comes to personnel, and they know how the other coaches their players. I really think that this will end up being a wash. I don't see a lot of sacks or a lot of pressure on quarterbacks in this game.
And that means that it's up to Rex Grossman and Peyton Manning to make intelligent decisions and make precise, well timed throws. Intelligence. Precision. Timing. Sounds like three big parts of Manning's game, doesn't it? If you're thinking of which of these two quarterbacks is more likely to do something stupid with the football, you've got to bet the mortgage on Rex, right? Even if Manning has Dr. Heimlich on speed dial when it comes to big games, you've got to think that Manning will do more with what the defense gives him than Grossman will.
I think that'll be the difference. That and coaching. I have a great deal of admiration for Lovie Smith and what he's accomplished, but the man called a timeout with 2 seconds left when the other team had the ball in easy Hail Mary range. In a playoff game. After all, I made the mistake of taking Schottenheimer and Rivers over Bellichick and Brady. Coaching and quarterbacks are what's going to make the difference in this game. And while the gap between Manning and Dungy and Grossman and Smith isn't as wide as the gap between Bellichick and Brady and Schottenheimer and Rivers, it's enough.
But it's not worth 7 points. I stand by that. It's going to be a close game.
Unless one thing happens: Indy gets the ball to start the game and scores a quick touchdown. If that happens, I think that Rex, Lovie, and the entire Chicago coaching staff panics. They start calling too many passes too early. They don't let Rex get comfortable. They don't let Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones impose their will on the undersized front seven of the Colts. They decide to get into a shootout with the Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. And that never ends well.
Ask Tom Brady.
Prediction: Colts 27, Bears 24.
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