A Few Thoughts

First and foremost, I'd be scared shitless right about now if I were a Colts fan. Have you read interviews with Dungy recently? He's been using that tired, old, "The past 3-4 years, I've been taking it one year at a time," speech. He even mentioned in one press conference that he's looking forward to next season and even asked reporters if they thought he looked "tired" or "burned out." I seriously had to read the quote again and confirm that the quote was attributed to Dungy the day after this year's Super Bowl and not Cowher after last year's Super Bowl.

So, if I were a Colts fan I'd be scared shitless for two reasons: One, Dungy's retiring after this season. Two, at the end end of the season, Colts fans will be bitching about the fact that Dungy retired in March of 2007 and forgot to tell anyone. Just a heads-up.

Then again, I was completely mistaken about the Cowher-to-Dallas thing.

If I had to bet right now, here's how I'd lay the odds (and it isn't pretty):

Cleveland: 3-2
San Diego: 4-1
Baltimore: 10-1
Jacksonville: 15-1
New York Giants: 30-1
Dallas: 100-1

Notice how Dallas is still on that list. Jerry Jones talked to Cowher. They had a meeting. But, I'm convinced that Cowher wasn't going to coach this year for all the money in the world. Now, if Jones offers him all the money in the world next year, I think he'll take it.

And that depends on how well Wade Phillips does as head coach. And, my prediction is that Wade Phillips will not do well at all. He'll do better than Norv Turner would've done, but he will not do well at all.

Turner and Phillips have the same problem: They're great coordinators, but they're not great head coaches. It's not their fault. They're just better at Xs and Os than they are with people.

And, it seems to me that being a head coach is like being a CEO. You run the day-to-day operations, you make sure everyone is doing what they're supposed to be doing, and you motivate people to do everything to the best of their ability. On game day, you're pretty much done. If you can do all that, you're a great coach. Schottenheimer's a good example. Scott Leinhan, Jim Mora.

But, the other side of what separates a great coach from an exceptional coach (and this is where Bellichick and Payton have everyone else beat, and Cowher was just starting to find his groove) is game decisions, in-game motivation (where Cowher has everyone else beat), and in-game adjustments. When to go for it on fourth down. When to chew a guy out. When to help him up and slap him on the butt and tell him they'll do better next time. When to change your strategy.

Phillips and Turner are organized. They're smart guys. They're good at running meetings. Turner knows his offense. Phillips knows his defense.

However, Phillips is about as motivational (and I consider Bellichick to be one of the best motivators in the game - i.e. you don't need to spit a lot to motivate people) as a streetlight. Turner doesn't seem to care enough about motivating his players to do it. Neither of them has control of their locker room. Especially not Turner. I was thinking there were going to be some COLLOSAL issues if Turner was hired. Seriously. If Parcells got burned out and overpowered by the personalities on the Cowboys, think of what a pushover like Turner (who got completely abused and let his players run the team and talk shit about him in Oakland) would be.

Maybe Phillips is just keeping the seat warm for Cowher. Or possibly Jason Garrett. I mean, I fail to see how Troy Aikman's back-up would be a good coach, but it's not my call.

Enough about the Cowboys.

One more thing about coaches retiring right after they win the Super Bowl:

I'm glad we hired Tomlin, not Grimm. He's young, he's hungry. He's got a great team (face it, we just threw last season away). Most of the skill position guys on offense are young. The secondary, DeShea Townshend aside, is young. The d-line's getting younger. The 0-line's getting younger. Hines Ward is the only thing keeping the receiving corps from being completely ovarian.

Point is, if he wins a championship young, he'll stick around and win more. Like Bellichick. Holmgren's been hanging around for years trying to win another one. Like Noll. Look at Gruden. He's still too young to quit. Shannahan can't hang around forever.

If we hired Grimm and he won a Super Bowl in his 3rd or 4th year, he'd probably retire. He's got 5 rings at that point (three with the Redskins, two with the Steelers), what more does he have to prove?

Dungy and Schottenheimer are gone after next year. They're too old and they have no other mountains left to climb. They waited too long to win a Super Bowl (Schottenheimer's still waiting) and it took too much out of them. Same with Cowher. I mean, he'll be back for money, but he's accomplished what he set out to accomplish. What's left?

One last thing, then I'll shut up:

This has to be the most excited I've been heading into an offseason ever. New coach, some new assistants, questions about how we'll bounce back from a disappointing season, everyone on the roster set to be a free agent after the 2007 season. New coach.

And, I'm actually interested in who we'll be drafting. I mean, really, we need draft about 4 linebackers and three or four offensive linemen, but I wonder who we'll grab in the first round.

Obviously, I'll obsess about this until the draft in April, so this isn't the last post until August.

And, speaking of August, I'm actually looking forward to the pre-season. And that's a bold statement.

This pre-season, there will be expectations, questions, unfamiliarity, uneasiness. Guys fighting for their jobs. Tomlin will look to impress everyone and it will actually matter to him whether we win or lose. He needs to see what kind of talent he has on the roster. We'll see the starters play more than a series or two. And the playbook won't be completely vanilla.

For the most part, Steeler Nation fears change. The Rooneys fear change. Players are creatures of habit and routine and fear change. But, I think this series of changes will do us good.

And, if not, I say we hire Norv Tuner.