The Bungles just signed a quarterback to the 2008 roster. His name? Jordan Palmer, brother of cornhole afficiando Carson Palmer.
So, since the team's current nickname is the Bungles and they now employee two known cornholers, the new official name for the Cincinnati Bengals is: the Bungholes.
Effective immediately.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Super Bowl Preview
Here's my issue with this game. If you look at the match-ups, the Giants actually have a chance. I'll go on record as saying I think the Patriots will win, but I think there isn't much of a chance that they'll cover. The Giants just present too many problems for them.
Look at the teams that gave New England trouble this year (not including the Giants, obviously): Philly, Indy, the hated Ravens, and the Chargers. In all other games, the Patriots either had a very comfortable lead and pulled away, or they had a big lead and blew the other team out. All four teams have something in common: They all can run the ball and they all can pressure the quarterback. Lots of analysts have talked about the fact that the hated Ravens, Eagles, and San Diego all did a great job of mixing up coverages, but the fact is that they fucked with Tom Brady by pressuring him. The Eagles and hated Ravens did it by sending five or six guys several plays in a row, then laying off and rushing two or three guys. The Colts and Chargers did it the old fashioned way, by rushing four. I know, I know, people will say the Chargers blitzed on every play because they have a three man defensive line and they were rushing four guys. But, Shawne Merriman rushes the QB so often, he may as well be a lineman.
The Colts held New England to 24 points (and 10 points through the first three quarters) by pressuring with their front four and playing it safe in the back seven. The Chargers held them to 21 points by playing some zone, some man, and switching it up often enough that Tom Brady actually had to think a little bit when he looked at the field and tried to figure out the coverage scheme. The more he has to think, the longer the front four has to pressure him. The more pressure he sees, the more likely he'll make a mistake. And, really, the G-Men need to hope for another three interception effort.
But, the thing about the Giants secondary is that it really isn't as crappy as I thought and they're significantly helped by the fact that their front four generates a ton of pressure (league-high 53 sacks). Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a smart dude and this is a disciplined bunch of guys. The key is pressuring Brady, mixing up coverages and, above all, tackling people.
The Patriots offense is really, really, really simple. Everyone talks about how brilliant Brady is, but he's really just exceptionally good at working the clutch on the Ferrari that he's driving. He's got the best #1 receiver in the league and the best slot guy in the league. His #2 and #4 guys aren't bad -- the #4 guy was the #2 guy on the Patriots last year, before all the trades -- but they're made better by the fact that no one's paying any attention to them.
If you put everyone in the end zone and try to keep the play in front of you, Brady will throw underneath stuff to Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk, with occasional screens to Donte Stallworth and Randy Moss. When he throws that underneath stuff, the first guy in needs to tackle the receiver. Pure and simple. It's not like there have been a ton of missed tackles in the games I've watched of the Patriots, it's just that everyone on their offense is dangerous with the ball in their hands. So, in order to win, the Giants need to tackle better than anyone, including themselves in Week 17, has tackled thus far this year. As soon as someone on the Patriots catches the ball, they need to go to the turf.
In the previous game between these two teams, the Giants took away the deep ball, so Brady threw a bunch of dinky passes to Welker, Faulk, and Stallworth. Once the Giants secondary started creeping up to stop this, Brady went deep to Moss. And, bottom line, if you don't protect your safeties and make them think too much, the Patriots will downright fucking kill you. We didn't protect Anthony Smith and look what happened. If the safeties are allowed to think for themselves, they're done for. Plain and simple. No mater how much crap Brady completes in front of them, don't move them up. Tell them to stay the fuck back and run in whatever direction Moss is running in. The Giants failed to do this in the first game and Moss was open deep on back-to-back plays. He cashed in the second for a touchdown after dropping the first.
Out of every team that played the Patriots this year, the Chargers did the best job of covering deep, tackling short, and mixing up coverages to make Brady think. And they still lost. While I really think that, if they stick with something similar to what San Diego did, the Giants can have similar success, it still means that Eli Manning and the offense need to score more than 21 points.
And, really, it comes down to whether or not center Shaun O'Hara can block nose tackle Vince Wilfork one-on-one. Wilfork's a huge, athletic, powerful dude. Think of how good Casey Hampton was in 2005, then add a little more speed. That's what we're talking about. Remember how we couldn't run the ball up the middle on the Patriots? That's because Sean Mahan's a hack and would need six dudes and a chainsaw to stop Wilfork. See how much trouble Jacksonville had? Their center, Brad Meester, despite his bad-ass first name, is not much better than Mahan.
Two guys in the NFL can win a one-on-one battle with Wilfork about half the time (which is really all you can hope for): Jeff Saturday of the Colts and... wait for it... Shaun O'Hara of the Giants. If O'Hara can handle Wilfork by himself (if not most of the time, all of the time), the Giants can score more than 21 points. If he can't, they can't.
If he can, that means their guards can bust through the line and go kill senior citizens Junior Seau, Tedy Bruschi, and Rodney Harrison. All three of those guys are great players and they're very smart, but they can only get beat on so long before they start taking chances, taking bad angles, and attempting to "run around" blockers so they don't get hit. They're old, slow, and can only take so much of a pounding. They won't give up, they'll just start being stupid.
That means the running game will be successful for New York. If the running game is successful, that means that Eli can use the playaction passing that he runs so effectively. If the passing game and the running game are both working, then the offense will click. When the Giants offense clicks, they can score lots and lots of points on anyone... just not as many as, say, the Patriots offense when it is clicking, so the defense needs to make sure the Patriots offense isn't clicking.
If O'Hara doesn't stop Wilfork one-on-one, the Aged Three will be able to play their game: shoot the gaps, take the shortest distance to the ballcarrier, make the tackle on the first try and, in Harrison's case, jump onto the pile late with your elbows and cleats flying and not get flagged.
If the Aged Three are able to play their game, this becomes a shoot-out between Brady and Manning and a chess match between Bellichick and Tom Coughlin. In that situation, a 12-point spread starts to look mighty attractive and the smart bet is on the Patriots covering the "over" all by themselves. Eli has come a long way and he's been very efficient in the playoffs, but he hasn't come that far.
I would like to take this opportunity to point out the fact that O'Hara did not play in Week 17 against the Patriots and the Giants still scored 35 points.
Okay. So, say the Giants do the things I mentioned (pressure Brady, mix coverages, O'Hara blocks Wilfork all by himself). Bellichick is going to adjust. He will make the following adjustments:
1. Put 12 tight ends in the game and run three plays - Laurence Maroney left, Laurence Maroney right, and Laurence Maroney middle - for at least a full quarter, or until the Giants flinch.
2. Blitz the shit out of Eli for at least a full quarter, or until Eli is carried off on a stretcher with a dribble cup.
If the Giants can withstand that and win the turnover battle by at least two, they've got a shot. The only issue is they'll still end up facing the fourth quarter with the score close in a playoff game against the Patriots. And, even though they've gotten a little glam-tastic this season, this is still Brady, Bellichick, and all the other big game guys that have won championships for this team for a long time.
Unless the Giants are up by 10 with seven minutes left in the fourth quarter and holding the ball, they shouldn't feel too cocky. New England is too lucky and too clutch in tight situations to leave anything to chance.
Finally, there's a big x-factor in this game: The officials. As much as I hate the pissing and moaning of Seahawks fan, we had a lot of favorable calls in Super Bowl XL (which we won, btw).
The Patriots haven't dominated a good team since they kicked the shit out of us, but they've had more than their fair share of breaks.
1. Trailing against the Giants in Week 17, Tom Brady got sacked on 3rd and 22. Due to an illegal chuck penalty against New York, they got first and 10 and eventually scored a touchdown.
2. Towards the end of the first half of that game, two defenders for the Patriots held Brandon Jacobs down (delay of game on the defense) for eight seconds (which is a big deal, considering there were 38 seconds left in the half when he was tackled), then proceeded to grab him and yell at him when he got up and tried to get lined up for the snap. The officials, standing around and doing nothing, finally reacted... when Eli called a timeout. During the timeout, two separate New England defenders poked Jacobs in the eye and taunted him. End result? A five yard delay of game penalty on the defense and the clock was re-set to 33 seconds. So, instead of two personal foul penalties and a delay of game penalty, the Giants got five yards and lost five seconds. At least they didn't lose their timeout and Brandon Jacobs could still see. Nice of the officials to do that.
3. Mike Vrabel leg-whipped Philip Rivers in the AFC Championship game after Rivers threw the ball on the first series. No flag. Even though Vrabel was lying on his back, Rivers was on his side, then got up limping.
4. New England has not been flagged for offensive holding since Week 16. And that penalty was called on a back-up offensive lineman. While they say that you could realistically call someone for holding on every play, I find it very hard to believe that no referee saw someone on the Patriots that was guilty of holding someone from the other team for three entire games.
5. Rodney Harrison hasn't been called for a personal foul thus far in the playoffs. You could call one on him on any given play -- even when the Pats are on offense -- so it bears watching when the stakes are higher.
In the two playoff games the Patriots have lost in the Bellichick-Brady Era, especially the 2005 Divisional Round game against the Broncos, they were on the losing side of several calls. All their goodwill and karma from that game has been used up at this point. The Giants, meanwhile, have been generally shit upon by fate in the last four games, but they're still 3-1. Just like when the refs made it up to us in the Super Bowl for the flubbed interception by Troy against Indy, it's entirely possible that the favorable calls (and non-calls) New England has been getting all year will come to an end and fall greatly in the Giants favor.
Still, it's Eli Manning against Tom Brady.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Giants 24.
Look at the teams that gave New England trouble this year (not including the Giants, obviously): Philly, Indy, the hated Ravens, and the Chargers. In all other games, the Patriots either had a very comfortable lead and pulled away, or they had a big lead and blew the other team out. All four teams have something in common: They all can run the ball and they all can pressure the quarterback. Lots of analysts have talked about the fact that the hated Ravens, Eagles, and San Diego all did a great job of mixing up coverages, but the fact is that they fucked with Tom Brady by pressuring him. The Eagles and hated Ravens did it by sending five or six guys several plays in a row, then laying off and rushing two or three guys. The Colts and Chargers did it the old fashioned way, by rushing four. I know, I know, people will say the Chargers blitzed on every play because they have a three man defensive line and they were rushing four guys. But, Shawne Merriman rushes the QB so often, he may as well be a lineman.
The Colts held New England to 24 points (and 10 points through the first three quarters) by pressuring with their front four and playing it safe in the back seven. The Chargers held them to 21 points by playing some zone, some man, and switching it up often enough that Tom Brady actually had to think a little bit when he looked at the field and tried to figure out the coverage scheme. The more he has to think, the longer the front four has to pressure him. The more pressure he sees, the more likely he'll make a mistake. And, really, the G-Men need to hope for another three interception effort.
But, the thing about the Giants secondary is that it really isn't as crappy as I thought and they're significantly helped by the fact that their front four generates a ton of pressure (league-high 53 sacks). Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a smart dude and this is a disciplined bunch of guys. The key is pressuring Brady, mixing up coverages and, above all, tackling people.
The Patriots offense is really, really, really simple. Everyone talks about how brilliant Brady is, but he's really just exceptionally good at working the clutch on the Ferrari that he's driving. He's got the best #1 receiver in the league and the best slot guy in the league. His #2 and #4 guys aren't bad -- the #4 guy was the #2 guy on the Patriots last year, before all the trades -- but they're made better by the fact that no one's paying any attention to them.
If you put everyone in the end zone and try to keep the play in front of you, Brady will throw underneath stuff to Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk, with occasional screens to Donte Stallworth and Randy Moss. When he throws that underneath stuff, the first guy in needs to tackle the receiver. Pure and simple. It's not like there have been a ton of missed tackles in the games I've watched of the Patriots, it's just that everyone on their offense is dangerous with the ball in their hands. So, in order to win, the Giants need to tackle better than anyone, including themselves in Week 17, has tackled thus far this year. As soon as someone on the Patriots catches the ball, they need to go to the turf.
In the previous game between these two teams, the Giants took away the deep ball, so Brady threw a bunch of dinky passes to Welker, Faulk, and Stallworth. Once the Giants secondary started creeping up to stop this, Brady went deep to Moss. And, bottom line, if you don't protect your safeties and make them think too much, the Patriots will downright fucking kill you. We didn't protect Anthony Smith and look what happened. If the safeties are allowed to think for themselves, they're done for. Plain and simple. No mater how much crap Brady completes in front of them, don't move them up. Tell them to stay the fuck back and run in whatever direction Moss is running in. The Giants failed to do this in the first game and Moss was open deep on back-to-back plays. He cashed in the second for a touchdown after dropping the first.
Out of every team that played the Patriots this year, the Chargers did the best job of covering deep, tackling short, and mixing up coverages to make Brady think. And they still lost. While I really think that, if they stick with something similar to what San Diego did, the Giants can have similar success, it still means that Eli Manning and the offense need to score more than 21 points.
And, really, it comes down to whether or not center Shaun O'Hara can block nose tackle Vince Wilfork one-on-one. Wilfork's a huge, athletic, powerful dude. Think of how good Casey Hampton was in 2005, then add a little more speed. That's what we're talking about. Remember how we couldn't run the ball up the middle on the Patriots? That's because Sean Mahan's a hack and would need six dudes and a chainsaw to stop Wilfork. See how much trouble Jacksonville had? Their center, Brad Meester, despite his bad-ass first name, is not much better than Mahan.
Two guys in the NFL can win a one-on-one battle with Wilfork about half the time (which is really all you can hope for): Jeff Saturday of the Colts and... wait for it... Shaun O'Hara of the Giants. If O'Hara can handle Wilfork by himself (if not most of the time, all of the time), the Giants can score more than 21 points. If he can't, they can't.
If he can, that means their guards can bust through the line and go kill senior citizens Junior Seau, Tedy Bruschi, and Rodney Harrison. All three of those guys are great players and they're very smart, but they can only get beat on so long before they start taking chances, taking bad angles, and attempting to "run around" blockers so they don't get hit. They're old, slow, and can only take so much of a pounding. They won't give up, they'll just start being stupid.
That means the running game will be successful for New York. If the running game is successful, that means that Eli can use the playaction passing that he runs so effectively. If the passing game and the running game are both working, then the offense will click. When the Giants offense clicks, they can score lots and lots of points on anyone... just not as many as, say, the Patriots offense when it is clicking, so the defense needs to make sure the Patriots offense isn't clicking.
If O'Hara doesn't stop Wilfork one-on-one, the Aged Three will be able to play their game: shoot the gaps, take the shortest distance to the ballcarrier, make the tackle on the first try and, in Harrison's case, jump onto the pile late with your elbows and cleats flying and not get flagged.
If the Aged Three are able to play their game, this becomes a shoot-out between Brady and Manning and a chess match between Bellichick and Tom Coughlin. In that situation, a 12-point spread starts to look mighty attractive and the smart bet is on the Patriots covering the "over" all by themselves. Eli has come a long way and he's been very efficient in the playoffs, but he hasn't come that far.
I would like to take this opportunity to point out the fact that O'Hara did not play in Week 17 against the Patriots and the Giants still scored 35 points.
Okay. So, say the Giants do the things I mentioned (pressure Brady, mix coverages, O'Hara blocks Wilfork all by himself). Bellichick is going to adjust. He will make the following adjustments:
1. Put 12 tight ends in the game and run three plays - Laurence Maroney left, Laurence Maroney right, and Laurence Maroney middle - for at least a full quarter, or until the Giants flinch.
2. Blitz the shit out of Eli for at least a full quarter, or until Eli is carried off on a stretcher with a dribble cup.
If the Giants can withstand that and win the turnover battle by at least two, they've got a shot. The only issue is they'll still end up facing the fourth quarter with the score close in a playoff game against the Patriots. And, even though they've gotten a little glam-tastic this season, this is still Brady, Bellichick, and all the other big game guys that have won championships for this team for a long time.
Unless the Giants are up by 10 with seven minutes left in the fourth quarter and holding the ball, they shouldn't feel too cocky. New England is too lucky and too clutch in tight situations to leave anything to chance.
Finally, there's a big x-factor in this game: The officials. As much as I hate the pissing and moaning of Seahawks fan, we had a lot of favorable calls in Super Bowl XL (which we won, btw).
The Patriots haven't dominated a good team since they kicked the shit out of us, but they've had more than their fair share of breaks.
1. Trailing against the Giants in Week 17, Tom Brady got sacked on 3rd and 22. Due to an illegal chuck penalty against New York, they got first and 10 and eventually scored a touchdown.
2. Towards the end of the first half of that game, two defenders for the Patriots held Brandon Jacobs down (delay of game on the defense) for eight seconds (which is a big deal, considering there were 38 seconds left in the half when he was tackled), then proceeded to grab him and yell at him when he got up and tried to get lined up for the snap. The officials, standing around and doing nothing, finally reacted... when Eli called a timeout. During the timeout, two separate New England defenders poked Jacobs in the eye and taunted him. End result? A five yard delay of game penalty on the defense and the clock was re-set to 33 seconds. So, instead of two personal foul penalties and a delay of game penalty, the Giants got five yards and lost five seconds. At least they didn't lose their timeout and Brandon Jacobs could still see. Nice of the officials to do that.
3. Mike Vrabel leg-whipped Philip Rivers in the AFC Championship game after Rivers threw the ball on the first series. No flag. Even though Vrabel was lying on his back, Rivers was on his side, then got up limping.
4. New England has not been flagged for offensive holding since Week 16. And that penalty was called on a back-up offensive lineman. While they say that you could realistically call someone for holding on every play, I find it very hard to believe that no referee saw someone on the Patriots that was guilty of holding someone from the other team for three entire games.
5. Rodney Harrison hasn't been called for a personal foul thus far in the playoffs. You could call one on him on any given play -- even when the Pats are on offense -- so it bears watching when the stakes are higher.
In the two playoff games the Patriots have lost in the Bellichick-Brady Era, especially the 2005 Divisional Round game against the Broncos, they were on the losing side of several calls. All their goodwill and karma from that game has been used up at this point. The Giants, meanwhile, have been generally shit upon by fate in the last four games, but they're still 3-1. Just like when the refs made it up to us in the Super Bowl for the flubbed interception by Troy against Indy, it's entirely possible that the favorable calls (and non-calls) New England has been getting all year will come to an end and fall greatly in the Giants favor.
Still, it's Eli Manning against Tom Brady.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Giants 24.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Championship Sunday
Okay, I have to admit, those were two dumbass picks. I went 0-2 on Championship Sunday and my Super Bowl pairing ended up crapping the bed. I felt like an idiot, but I have not been in hiding. I'm just really not enticed by this Super Bowl match-up.
Chargers-Packers would've been cool. Favre dodges a bullet by not drawing the undefeated Pats and cruises to an easy victory. Chargers-Giants would've brought us Eli vs. Philip, the two men involved in the 2004 first round trade fighting to become the second quarterback from that draft class to win the Super Bowl. ('Cause, ya know, Ben was the first, seeing as how the Steelers won Super Bowl XL.) And, Pats-Packers would've been the best pairing for Fox, because roughly 908 billion people would tune in to see if the ol' gunslinger could fell the new juggernaut.
Giants-Pats? Eh. I mean, Redskins-Pats would've been the biggest underdog vs. the biggest favorite... but, the line's already 12. Two of the biggest markets, the scrappy Giants vs. the unbeatable Patriots. I dunno. Aside from the fact that these two teams played a hell of a game in New Jersey about a month ago, I'm finding it tough to get into this one. And that was a home game for the Giants. And they were more fired up for it and less terrified.
I'll have a more detailed analysis later this week (I promise), but, as of right now, it seems like this is gonna be a real stinker.
Around the league:
Chargers-Packers would've been cool. Favre dodges a bullet by not drawing the undefeated Pats and cruises to an easy victory. Chargers-Giants would've brought us Eli vs. Philip, the two men involved in the 2004 first round trade fighting to become the second quarterback from that draft class to win the Super Bowl. ('Cause, ya know, Ben was the first, seeing as how the Steelers won Super Bowl XL.) And, Pats-Packers would've been the best pairing for Fox, because roughly 908 billion people would tune in to see if the ol' gunslinger could fell the new juggernaut.
Giants-Pats? Eh. I mean, Redskins-Pats would've been the biggest underdog vs. the biggest favorite... but, the line's already 12. Two of the biggest markets, the scrappy Giants vs. the unbeatable Patriots. I dunno. Aside from the fact that these two teams played a hell of a game in New Jersey about a month ago, I'm finding it tough to get into this one. And that was a home game for the Giants. And they were more fired up for it and less terrified.
I'll have a more detailed analysis later this week (I promise), but, as of right now, it seems like this is gonna be a real stinker.
Around the league:
- Good news! The hated Ravens hired John Harbaugh as their new head coach! You know, John Harbaugh. He's... that guy. That's... Jim Harbaugh's brother. While I understand that owners are starting to hire more and more guys with no previous head coaching experience, going for fresh blood over re-treads in the past few seasons, I really can't riddle my way out of this one. It looks like most of the staff is going to return, but... seriously. John Harbaugh? I don't even know who this guy is! I know more about his brother and his brother's been out of the game for 10 years. I'm fine with it. I'm not complaining. But, what the hell is going on in Baltimore? How did they get to be worse than Cleveland and Cincinnati combined? Just over one year ago today, they were the second seed and picked by many (Weidman included) to go to Super Bowl XLI. The fact that the wheels came off this franchise this quickly -- and this hard -- makes the fact that we lost to them in the finale that much more depressing.
- Miami hired Tony Sparano as their guy. He's Bill Parcells' butt buddy and I had to read his name in print seven times before I realized it wasn't Soprano. And they were 1-15 this year. And they basically pissed away every draft pick the last three years. And they're getting older. Yeah. They're almost as fucked as the 49ers.
- Speaking of the 49ers, they hired Mike Martz as their offensive coordinator. Mike Martz. That's right. The guy that Detroit didn't even want. Consider:
- Frank Gore, a running back, is San Francisco's best player.
- Martz likes to pass a lot and describes his running game as, "a series of short passes" and his short passing game as, "a series of long hand-offs."
- The 49ers offensive line kinda sucks.
- Alex Smith, their quarterback, is injury prone.
- The carnival once came to San Francisco. One of the midgets met Alex Smith there. He shook Smith's hand and said, "Man! You've got some tiny hands, dood!" He fumbles a lot.
- This will be Smith's fourth offensive coordinator in four years.
- And, the Falcons hired Mike Smith. I... guess they get a free pass because Lane Kiffin and Mike McCarthy have done so well. Smith's different than Harbaugh because I had at least heard of Smith before he got hired and he doesn't have a famous brother. If I find out that Ozzie Smith is Mike Smith's half-brother, all bets are off and Atlanta's front office is a bunch of dumbasses.
- Therefore, even though the Stillers got bounced from the playoffs in the first round, we can be thankful that we don't root for any of those teams.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
By the Way
I checked the weather for Foxboro on Sunday. It's supposed to be in the teens and windy. The only thing that seems to stop this Patriots team above all other factors is Mother Nature. When it's windy, they struggle. And, by "struggle," I mean they only score in the 20s.
Championship Game Predictions
I was 3-1 last week and I wasn't alone in picking the Colts. So I don't wanna hear any bitching about how you lost your house because you trusted me. If you're betting your house on something, it might be a good idea to pay a few extra dollars to consult with someone that knows more than I do about handicapping playoff games.
In related news, BET THE FARM ON GREEN BAY!
New York at Green Bay:
Here's my problem with picking the Giants: They've already come so far. They have a lot of the same qualities that the 2005 Steelers had (ya know, the team that won three playoff games on the road, then the Super Bowl); pressure defense, excellent running game with a small, nimble guy that can break a big play and a big, fat guy that can wear down defenses, a good collection of receivers, but no all stars for a defense to focus on, chemisty, a coach that had been under fire and considered a playoff failure, and a quarterback from the 2004 draft.
That's a lot of things to have in common.
The issue is this Championship Game match-up. I was convinced that the Steelers were going to beat the Broncos in the 2005 AFC Championship Game, but it wasn't because they were "on a roll" or "peaking at the right time." It was because they had a fantastic match-up against Denver. The Patriots seriously would've crushed us if they had beaten the Broncos. But, Denver won and we had the right group of players at the right positions to take advantage of the guys they had. That simple.
Green Bay is a terrible match-up for the Giants.
In related news, BET THE FARM ON GREEN BAY!
New York at Green Bay:
Here's my problem with picking the Giants: They've already come so far. They have a lot of the same qualities that the 2005 Steelers had (ya know, the team that won three playoff games on the road, then the Super Bowl); pressure defense, excellent running game with a small, nimble guy that can break a big play and a big, fat guy that can wear down defenses, a good collection of receivers, but no all stars for a defense to focus on, chemisty, a coach that had been under fire and considered a playoff failure, and a quarterback from the 2004 draft.
That's a lot of things to have in common.
The issue is this Championship Game match-up. I was convinced that the Steelers were going to beat the Broncos in the 2005 AFC Championship Game, but it wasn't because they were "on a roll" or "peaking at the right time." It was because they had a fantastic match-up against Denver. The Patriots seriously would've crushed us if they had beaten the Broncos. But, Denver won and we had the right group of players at the right positions to take advantage of the guys they had. That simple.
Green Bay is a terrible match-up for the Giants.
- Green Bay's receivers get most of their yards after the catch. The Giants secondary can't tackle.
- Brett Favre has found his deep ball mojo again and New York has three cornerbacks that were hurt in the game against the Cowboys that will either be out for the Championship or hindered by injury. And, their safeties aren't the greatest -- they'll get burned deep at least once.
- The game's in Lambeau Field. Okay, Mile High is a tough place to play, too, but there's too much history at Lambeau. The Packers fans have been waiting for this for too long. They'll be hammered, full of sausages, and ready to cheer their beloved quarterback to victory. They've watched this team all season. They know how good it is.
- Related Point: Too Many Concern Rays. Google Dave Barry Concern Rays. Too many people want the Packers and Favre to win this game too badly for them to lose.
- Green Bay has a tough, physical secondary that likes to grab, tug, pound on, and beat receivers all game. And they don't get flagged for this. And they're up against Plaxico and Amani Toomer.
- Take how much the Packers fans, the media, Rupert Murdoch, and the football-watching public want Brett Favre to go to the Super Bowl. Then triple it. Then triple it again. That's how much every player for Green Bay wants Favre to not lose this game.
- The Packers run defense is underrated. Especially their front seven and definitely their front four, which gets too much credit for being able to rush the passer and not enough credit for being good run defenders. Plus which, the cornerbacks will play close to the line of scrimmage and support the run, which takes away New York's biggest weapon -- they like to spread the defense out and run big-ass Brandon Jacobs through big holes against smaller defenders and that ain't happening against the Packers.
- Did I mention that this game is at Lambeau? And everyone wants Favre to win? And the history? And the fact that it's Eli Manning on the road in a very hostile environment against a team that likes to pressure the quarterback up the middle? And they're one gam from the Super Bowl? And everyone wants Favre to win?
Too much for the Giants to overcome.
Packers 28, Giants 17
San Diego at New England:
Okay. I'll save you scrolling down and checking the prediction first. I'm picking the Chargers.
The worst part is that the match-ups favor New England. The match-ups always favor New England. I just keep thinking back to the 1994 AFC title game. Remember how bad the Chargers were that year? Remember how good the Steelers were? That '94 team was probably the best team Cowher ever put together. Neil O'Donnell was still young, but he was hitting his stride. The receivers were underrated and very efficient. And you had the two-headed beast of Bam Morris and Barry Foster. And the secondary's worst player was Darren Perry -- before he got slow and forgot how to tackle. That was a great team that was heavily favored and lost at home to the 4th seeded Chargers.
Here's where the similarities get interesting: The Friday before that game, some reporter for the San Diego... uh, we'll call the local paper there the Post-Gazette. Someone for the San Diego Post-Gazette basically wrote an entire article that said, "There's no way the Steelers win by the 12 points they're favored by. This Chargers team is just too lucky."
They beat the Colts, who were finally healthy, on the road after their three best offensive players were either out of the game or playing with an injury that should have kept them out of the game.
Norv Turner is a crappy coach, but he's an excellent offensive coordinator and an even better playcaller. When he was forced to get creative with the back-ups and situational guys he had to work with, he came up with some awesome stuff. Now, he's probably got Tomlinson and Philip Rivers back for this game and he knows what other weapons he has. New England's big weakness is that their defense is a hundred thousand years old and it's slow. The Chargers have too many fast guys and Turner is in too much of a zone.
Bellichick will get creative on defense, but he only has enough talent to focus on stopping Tomlinson and forcing Rivers to beat him. Well, Rivers has proved this post season that that's not a good strategy on defense and Tomlinson's back-ups have proven that they contribute more to the offense than just giving the star a breather.
And this is the biggest game of the season for the Chargers. They hate the Patriots. They're still pissed that New England beat them at home last year and beat the crap out of them in this season's re-match. Tomlinson has a beef with them, Shawne Merriman has a beef with them. Everyone for San Diego has more desire to beat the ever-living-crap out of the Patriots than the other way around. At some point, the pressure of a perfect season has to catch up with these guys. Or, at least, I hope it catches up with them.
But, back to the Chargers being lucky: They forced 48 turnovers this year, best in the league. You don't force that many turnovers without being good on defense, but you especially don't force that many without being really, really lucky. When a ball gets tipped, a Chargers defender always seems to end up with it. The Colts were about to start routing San Diego last week when Marvin Harrison fumbled for no real reason and completely changed momentum. They got their hands on more Peyton Manning passes than all defenses did all season combined. They survived two furious comeback attempts by the second-best offense in the league in the last four minutes.
The Patriots have, to some degree, had luck on their side and they've stayed away from turnovers all season. That could very well change on Sunday. And, if it does, it's bad, bad news for New England.
On defense, their secondary has gotten way better, they did a good job against the Colts, and Ted Cottrell knows enough about the zone blitz to pressure Brady with four guys and keep the zone in tact on the back end. Teams that have pretty much held the Patriots in check -- meaning right around 30 points -- have used deep zones, letting New England run on them and complete short passes, but not burn them deep.
Where teams have recently screwed themselves is by letting the Patriots offense intimidate them. They haven't been patient enough on defense and they have been trying too hard on offense. When you're constantly thinking about not screwing up, you're going to screw up eventually. Teams panic and try to score 14 points per play. It's kinda like what happened to Cleveland in the second game this year. They were pressing because they knew we were better and they were intimidated by us.
The Chargers -- at least this version of the Chargers -- don't panic. Billy Freakin' Volek was in at quarterback and Michael Turner and Darren Sproles were sharing time at tailback for an entire half last game. And San Diego didn't panic. The Colts kept coming at them and scored a few big plays, but the Chargers didn't panic.
There's an edge and a lack of fear in this team. That's what they were missing last season when these Patriots bounced them from the playoffs. They're as talented now as they were than and they're more confident.
I realize this is a dumb pick, but it's not like I bet my house on it. GO PACK GO!
Chargers 28, Patriots 25
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Playoff Predictions
My brother e-mailed me yesterday and said, "What? No playoff predictions?" Well, I was still kinda licking my wounds and I'm starting a new position at work and my vagina's kinda sprained...
So, here they are. Better late than never. In order of appearance:
Seattle at Green Bay:
Shaun Alexander belongs in the Smithsonian with the Fonz's jacket, Tom Tupa's leg, and Brad Johnson's arm. All of him. He's completely finished and anyone that either kept him or drafted him early in Fantasy Football had it coming. At any rate, he's does and Maurice Morris is only marginally better. So, that means that Hasselback has to throw the ball 40 times against one of the best secondaries in the NFL all while being rushed by a damn good front four that's going up against an overrated and over-the-hill offensive line and still trying to deal with Nick Barnett and AJ Hawk.
A lot of people want to talk about playoff experience. Holmgren and the Hawks have it, Favre is about the only person on the Packers that does. But, they're at home, they've got a way better defense, and there's NO WAY that Favre is going to lose what may be his last game under these circumstances: At home, against his former mentor, and with an excellent chance of facing the Cowboys for a trip to the Super Bowl. And, people will say that Holmgren knows Favre real well and that he'll be able to get in Favre's head... How old was Favre when Holmgren left? 26? 27? How many Wrangler jeans commercials had he done? How many touchdowns did he have? Saying the Holmgren has an advantage on Favre because he coached him ten years ago is like saying that Jim Mora would have an advantage on Peyton Manning or Lloyd Carr would have an edge on Tom Brady. It was TEN YEARS AGO. Favre has changed so much since then. I mean, the last time Holmgren coached Favre, Favre's Dad was still alive and so was half his extended family. No gray hairs. No Wrangler commercials. More skill, more cavalier attitude. I guess he's not completely different, but he's very different.
Too much defense, too much Favre, too much Lambeau, not enough left in Shaun Alexander's tank.
Quick note: The Seahawks should change their motto to, "The NFL's Most Anonymous Good Team." Other than Alexander and Hasselback, how many guys can you name on this team (remember that Mack Strong retired and Curt Warner played 15 years ago, ditto Steve Largent)? They're never on Monday Night Football and no one ever talks about them despite the fact that they've won their division four years in a row. And, they draw the "Bitch Spot" playoff telecast. Seriously. Aside from fans of the respective teams and degenerate gamblers, who watches all of the 4:30 Saturday game? For the most part, I catch the two Sunday games and the Saturday night game, but I'm always too busy getting dinner or going to church, or watching something else when that 4:30 Saturday game is on. I hate Seattle and they're a bunch of whiny bitches, but would it kill the NFL to drop them into at least the 1 p.m. Sunday match-up?
Packers 31, Seahawks 20
Jacksonville at New England:
I've heard a lot of noise abot how the Jags are peaking at the right time, they can run the ball well, they can control the clock, and they could surprise the Patriots. Really. The Patriots. At Foxborough. When Bellichick has two weeks to prepare. And, at least for the moment, everyone on the New England roster can breathe because the pressure of an undefeated regular season is behind them. And, as I mentioned before the Steelers-Jags game, the two weaknesses Jacksonville has are that their secondary isn't great and they aren't built to come from behind.
So... pop quiz: What are the two things this Patriots team does really, really, really, really, exceptionally well? Wait for it... THEY THROW THE BALL AND JUMP ON TEAMS EARLY. The pundits are suggesting that this won't end up as a game where the Pats jump out to a 14-0 first quarter lead and then steamroll the Jags. And, honestly, I don't understand why they feel that way.
Bellichick takes away the running game (Jones-Drew and Taylor actually run the same plays, it's just a matter of recognizing who is running with the ball and stopping that person based on their tendencies; you don't have to adjust to different blocking schemes or gaps, you just have to focus on Taylor's legs and Jones-Drew's feet). Garrard can't carry this game on his own. He's good, but he's not that good. Few are. I'm thinking maybe Brady and Manning are that good. And that's it. The Jags just won't be able to keep pace with the Patriots. They just can't.
For everyone that thinks the Jags defense that can hang with the Pats offense: The Steelers scored 19 points in the fourth quarter in the Wild Card game. Nineteen points in one quarter. The Steelers. What did the Steelers do on offense to accomplish this? Wait for it... they threw the ball.
To me, it seems too simple. Which is why I'm probably wrong.
Patriots 42, Jaguars 22
San Diego at Indianapolis:
Here's another team with a shaky pass defense facing a great quarterback. When Manning threw six picks in Week 10, the Colts had only 17 active players on offense. Seventeen. Eleven of those guys had to be in the game at any given point, so it limited options on offense.
Manning threw six interceptions, Darren Sproles returned two kicks for touchdowns for the Chargers, and the Colts needed to miss a 23-yard field goal at the end of regulation in order for San Diego to win. And now the game is in Indy. And Indy has Tony Dungy and San Diego has Norv Turner.
I can't imagine that the Chargers have any hope of victory. I just can't. Not with Philip Rivers on the road, no receivers for San Diego, a banged up Antonio Gates, and the only thing the Chargers have going on offense being LaDanian Tomlinson. Indy won 13 games with half a team this year because of injuries. They lost 81 games to starters due to injury, which was second in the league. First in the league? The Bills with 87. How was the Bills season? How'd that work out for them? Well, now pretty much everyone is healthy.
They'll have more than 17 players active on offense in this one and that's a bad sign for the Chargers. I see this as another, "Really good home team kicks the shit out of an overmatched road team by jumping to a big early lead and wearing the opposing team down in order to rest up and prepare for the Championship Game" situation. Just like Pats-Jags, this will probably get ugly.
Colts 38, Chargers 17
Giants at Cowboys:
See, I don't trust Eli Manning. I just don't. But, he beat the Bucs last week in Tampa and recent history suggests that there's always at least one upset in the Divisional Round.
Here's the thing: As much as I don't trust Eli, I trust the Cowboys defense even less. They don't get a lot of pressure on the quarterback without mega-blitzing, they don't tackle particularly well, and there are big holes in their secondary.
On offense, they don't run the ball all that well and have been leaning on the passing game with Terrell Owens. Even if Owens plays, he won't be 100%. Terry Glenn's coming back, but he hasn't played all season and only recently started practicing. The Giants generate a lot of pressure just with their front four -- Justin Tuck had 10 sacks this year even though he only played on passing downs -- and they've got big, gap-toothed, pissed off Michael Strahan. Their secondary is suspect, too, but if all Dallas has as a passing threat is Jason Whitten and they can't run the ball, they're in for a long afternoon.
It's true that the Cowboys beat the Giants twice already this year. But, if history is anything to shout about, it's tough to beat the same team three times in one season. These teams don't like each other, teams from the same division always play each other tough in the post season, and, if it comes down to a close game, at least New York can run the ball and Manning has more than one "go to" guy. Romo's had at least one, sometimes three, all season. How does he do when he only has one (or, one-and-a-half, depending on how much credit you give Owens)?
I know they're at home, I know they're the #1 seed, I know they've got a lot of talent and broke all kinds of franchise records this season. But, I also know that they've got Wade Phillips as their coach and a quarterback whose only playoff experience was botching a snap in Seattle last season.
History: The Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since 1996.
History: The 2005 Colts were a team with a juggernaut offense and a shaky defense that lost momentum going into the Divisional Round as the #1 seed. Remember what happend to them? They got beat by a Steeler team that ran the ball well, didn't depend on their inexperienced quarterback too much, and applied a lot of pressure on defense. And they went on to win Super Bowl XL. Might have mentioned that before.
History: One road team always comes up with an upset in the Divisional Round. Steelers over Colts and Panthers over Bears in 2005, Pats over Chargers in 2006. To me, this looks like the most likely upset.
Giants 28, Cowboys 24
So, here they are. Better late than never. In order of appearance:
Seattle at Green Bay:
Shaun Alexander belongs in the Smithsonian with the Fonz's jacket, Tom Tupa's leg, and Brad Johnson's arm. All of him. He's completely finished and anyone that either kept him or drafted him early in Fantasy Football had it coming. At any rate, he's does and Maurice Morris is only marginally better. So, that means that Hasselback has to throw the ball 40 times against one of the best secondaries in the NFL all while being rushed by a damn good front four that's going up against an overrated and over-the-hill offensive line and still trying to deal with Nick Barnett and AJ Hawk.
A lot of people want to talk about playoff experience. Holmgren and the Hawks have it, Favre is about the only person on the Packers that does. But, they're at home, they've got a way better defense, and there's NO WAY that Favre is going to lose what may be his last game under these circumstances: At home, against his former mentor, and with an excellent chance of facing the Cowboys for a trip to the Super Bowl. And, people will say that Holmgren knows Favre real well and that he'll be able to get in Favre's head... How old was Favre when Holmgren left? 26? 27? How many Wrangler jeans commercials had he done? How many touchdowns did he have? Saying the Holmgren has an advantage on Favre because he coached him ten years ago is like saying that Jim Mora would have an advantage on Peyton Manning or Lloyd Carr would have an edge on Tom Brady. It was TEN YEARS AGO. Favre has changed so much since then. I mean, the last time Holmgren coached Favre, Favre's Dad was still alive and so was half his extended family. No gray hairs. No Wrangler commercials. More skill, more cavalier attitude. I guess he's not completely different, but he's very different.
Too much defense, too much Favre, too much Lambeau, not enough left in Shaun Alexander's tank.
Quick note: The Seahawks should change their motto to, "The NFL's Most Anonymous Good Team." Other than Alexander and Hasselback, how many guys can you name on this team (remember that Mack Strong retired and Curt Warner played 15 years ago, ditto Steve Largent)? They're never on Monday Night Football and no one ever talks about them despite the fact that they've won their division four years in a row. And, they draw the "Bitch Spot" playoff telecast. Seriously. Aside from fans of the respective teams and degenerate gamblers, who watches all of the 4:30 Saturday game? For the most part, I catch the two Sunday games and the Saturday night game, but I'm always too busy getting dinner or going to church, or watching something else when that 4:30 Saturday game is on. I hate Seattle and they're a bunch of whiny bitches, but would it kill the NFL to drop them into at least the 1 p.m. Sunday match-up?
Packers 31, Seahawks 20
Jacksonville at New England:
I've heard a lot of noise abot how the Jags are peaking at the right time, they can run the ball well, they can control the clock, and they could surprise the Patriots. Really. The Patriots. At Foxborough. When Bellichick has two weeks to prepare. And, at least for the moment, everyone on the New England roster can breathe because the pressure of an undefeated regular season is behind them. And, as I mentioned before the Steelers-Jags game, the two weaknesses Jacksonville has are that their secondary isn't great and they aren't built to come from behind.
So... pop quiz: What are the two things this Patriots team does really, really, really, really, exceptionally well? Wait for it... THEY THROW THE BALL AND JUMP ON TEAMS EARLY. The pundits are suggesting that this won't end up as a game where the Pats jump out to a 14-0 first quarter lead and then steamroll the Jags. And, honestly, I don't understand why they feel that way.
Bellichick takes away the running game (Jones-Drew and Taylor actually run the same plays, it's just a matter of recognizing who is running with the ball and stopping that person based on their tendencies; you don't have to adjust to different blocking schemes or gaps, you just have to focus on Taylor's legs and Jones-Drew's feet). Garrard can't carry this game on his own. He's good, but he's not that good. Few are. I'm thinking maybe Brady and Manning are that good. And that's it. The Jags just won't be able to keep pace with the Patriots. They just can't.
For everyone that thinks the Jags defense that can hang with the Pats offense: The Steelers scored 19 points in the fourth quarter in the Wild Card game. Nineteen points in one quarter. The Steelers. What did the Steelers do on offense to accomplish this? Wait for it... they threw the ball.
To me, it seems too simple. Which is why I'm probably wrong.
Patriots 42, Jaguars 22
San Diego at Indianapolis:
Here's another team with a shaky pass defense facing a great quarterback. When Manning threw six picks in Week 10, the Colts had only 17 active players on offense. Seventeen. Eleven of those guys had to be in the game at any given point, so it limited options on offense.
Manning threw six interceptions, Darren Sproles returned two kicks for touchdowns for the Chargers, and the Colts needed to miss a 23-yard field goal at the end of regulation in order for San Diego to win. And now the game is in Indy. And Indy has Tony Dungy and San Diego has Norv Turner.
I can't imagine that the Chargers have any hope of victory. I just can't. Not with Philip Rivers on the road, no receivers for San Diego, a banged up Antonio Gates, and the only thing the Chargers have going on offense being LaDanian Tomlinson. Indy won 13 games with half a team this year because of injuries. They lost 81 games to starters due to injury, which was second in the league. First in the league? The Bills with 87. How was the Bills season? How'd that work out for them? Well, now pretty much everyone is healthy.
They'll have more than 17 players active on offense in this one and that's a bad sign for the Chargers. I see this as another, "Really good home team kicks the shit out of an overmatched road team by jumping to a big early lead and wearing the opposing team down in order to rest up and prepare for the Championship Game" situation. Just like Pats-Jags, this will probably get ugly.
Colts 38, Chargers 17
Giants at Cowboys:
See, I don't trust Eli Manning. I just don't. But, he beat the Bucs last week in Tampa and recent history suggests that there's always at least one upset in the Divisional Round.
Here's the thing: As much as I don't trust Eli, I trust the Cowboys defense even less. They don't get a lot of pressure on the quarterback without mega-blitzing, they don't tackle particularly well, and there are big holes in their secondary.
On offense, they don't run the ball all that well and have been leaning on the passing game with Terrell Owens. Even if Owens plays, he won't be 100%. Terry Glenn's coming back, but he hasn't played all season and only recently started practicing. The Giants generate a lot of pressure just with their front four -- Justin Tuck had 10 sacks this year even though he only played on passing downs -- and they've got big, gap-toothed, pissed off Michael Strahan. Their secondary is suspect, too, but if all Dallas has as a passing threat is Jason Whitten and they can't run the ball, they're in for a long afternoon.
It's true that the Cowboys beat the Giants twice already this year. But, if history is anything to shout about, it's tough to beat the same team three times in one season. These teams don't like each other, teams from the same division always play each other tough in the post season, and, if it comes down to a close game, at least New York can run the ball and Manning has more than one "go to" guy. Romo's had at least one, sometimes three, all season. How does he do when he only has one (or, one-and-a-half, depending on how much credit you give Owens)?
I know they're at home, I know they're the #1 seed, I know they've got a lot of talent and broke all kinds of franchise records this season. But, I also know that they've got Wade Phillips as their coach and a quarterback whose only playoff experience was botching a snap in Seattle last season.
History: The Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since 1996.
History: The 2005 Colts were a team with a juggernaut offense and a shaky defense that lost momentum going into the Divisional Round as the #1 seed. Remember what happend to them? They got beat by a Steeler team that ran the ball well, didn't depend on their inexperienced quarterback too much, and applied a lot of pressure on defense. And they went on to win Super Bowl XL. Might have mentioned that before.
History: One road team always comes up with an upset in the Divisional Round. Steelers over Colts and Panthers over Bears in 2005, Pats over Chargers in 2006. To me, this looks like the most likely upset.
Giants 28, Cowboys 24
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Wild Card Review
Okay, I was a little bit busy since the game, but I wasn't that busy. I was a little bit pissed and disappointed, but I wasn't that pissed and disappointed (think about it -- it was a great game -- if the Giants-Bucs game turned out like this one, you would have watched it and thought, "Wow. That was a nice, exciting game.")
I've held off writing about it because as soon as I write about it, the season's over. Sure, we've got some Divisional Round games and possibly one of the greatest Conference Championship Games Ever coming up, but the season's over.
I mean, I saw the outcome coming. The only thing that kept us in the game was that we put it on Ben. Say what you want about his three interceptions: The man delivered and we would've been totally screwed and completely blown out at home had it not been for his efforts in the third and fourth quarters.
Strangely, everyone seems to be pissed at Tomlin (or, at least, they were -- "everyone" has pretty much calmed down and moved on at this point, since it was only the Wild Card and no one really expected much) for the two point conversions. Now, I realize that it was completely idiotic to go for it on what amounted to fourth and goal from the 12 when only down by 5, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Really. Seriously. Sit there and try to believe that the Steelers defense would've stopped Jacksonville with a 31-28 lead. The final would probably have been 35-31. The defense had made their stand to help the offense come back and they were done. When the Sepulverizer booted that shitty punt right down the middle of the field with four minutes left, I pretty much knew it was over. At 4th and 2 I knew it was over. That didn't stop me from screaming at the TV and getting pissed when Garrard gained 30 more yards than he needed to, but really, I knew it was over.
When push comes to shove, this defense gets thrown all over the place. When a team really wants to score, they do. It's that simple. We coasted to the #1 overall defense (in terms of yardage, not points) because we played crappy offenses like San Francisco and Buffalo, the Jets, Miami in a monsoon, Baltimore twice, Cincinnati twice (they had too many injuries on the o-line and were a shadow of their former selves this season), we played the Rams, we played Cleveland once before they found their offensive mojo and, in the second game, gave up 600 yards in returns so the offense didn't need to move the ball to score. In games where it mattered, where the other team really wanted it, we got pushed around.
The offensive line blows. They can't run block, they can't pass block, and, every time they needed to shove the ball down the other team's throat and kill clock (or score from inside the five), they couldn't do it. It's a sad commentary on Steelers football, but this is now a team that needs to throw the ball to score in the red zone. Ben didn't get 32 TD passes by accident, he got them by necessity... and Fast Willie ended up with only two rushing touchdowns for the season, despite the fact that he had roughly 4,315 carries.
And, special teams are freakin' terrible. Lots of return yards given up, bad angles, slow, confused dudes running down the field on kickoffs and puts, and absolutely no one that scares the opposing team to return the ball. Terrible. Just terrible. I wonder what Bobby April's up to? Or Sean Morey. Or Randel-el. Or even Will Blackmon.
So, basically, this is a team with a franchise QB, a great RB, some very talented WRs, some young talent and depth in the secondary, and a lot of warts. Tomlin and his staff realize this. They understand that they took advantage of a soft schedule and some good timing to win the division and go to the playoffs.
Look for them to keep what they have that's working and get rid of what they have that isn't.
Look for this to be the off-season of change that we were expecting when Cowher retired and Tomlin was named head coach.
Look for the Steelers to not retain Clark Haggans or Aaron Smith. Look for them to seek out defensive tackles and defensive ends that fit the 4-3 defense that Tomlin likes to run. Look for Dick LeBeau to retire and hand the keys over to Tomlin... there are a bunch of good defensive coordinators out there. Dom Capers comes to mind...
Look for them to trade Casey Hampton. Look for them to start making the transition to the 4-3 hard and fast. Faneca will obviously not be retained. Most likely, they'll be able to pick up Max Starks on the cheap after he shops his injured body around the free agent market and finds there aren't greener pastures.
Lawrence Timmons and Lamar Woodley will emerge. Foote and Farrior will fade away. We'll become an offensive team that uses a lot of exotic formations, a lot of tight ends, and runs the ball to "mix it up" after we've set up the run with the pass... kinda like we've done all year.
The team is going to go through a major overhaul and, we'll probably see a losing record next season in what will truly be the "re-building" year for this franchise. But, ya know what? I'm not really upset about it. The dominant teams in the league right now (and probably for the next 8-10 years) are offensive teams that play just enough defense to win.
And, really, I'm fine with the defense having the mentality of, "As long as we hold the other team to 20 points, we're gonna win." I'm totally cool with that. One of the reasons that the Patriots, Colts, and Cowboys rank so well in overall defense (points allowed, not yardage) is because the opposing team immediately feels the need to score as many points as possible. They press, they rush, they go no huddle, they go for it on fourth down, they try to do as many different risk-heavy things as possible to keep the ball or score points. They ultimately end up taking too many risks and shoot themselves in the foot. We need to start putting that kind of pressure on opposing teams. And, we'll be able to do that if we can somehow fix the offensive line or at least make it serviceable enough so that Ben isn't a complete sitting duck.
Now, I'm gonna be back with Playoff Predictions, more than enough draft stuff, and plenty of other things in the off-season. I just wanted to prepare everyone. It's going to be a bumpy ride.
I've held off writing about it because as soon as I write about it, the season's over. Sure, we've got some Divisional Round games and possibly one of the greatest Conference Championship Games Ever coming up, but the season's over.
I mean, I saw the outcome coming. The only thing that kept us in the game was that we put it on Ben. Say what you want about his three interceptions: The man delivered and we would've been totally screwed and completely blown out at home had it not been for his efforts in the third and fourth quarters.
Strangely, everyone seems to be pissed at Tomlin (or, at least, they were -- "everyone" has pretty much calmed down and moved on at this point, since it was only the Wild Card and no one really expected much) for the two point conversions. Now, I realize that it was completely idiotic to go for it on what amounted to fourth and goal from the 12 when only down by 5, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Really. Seriously. Sit there and try to believe that the Steelers defense would've stopped Jacksonville with a 31-28 lead. The final would probably have been 35-31. The defense had made their stand to help the offense come back and they were done. When the Sepulverizer booted that shitty punt right down the middle of the field with four minutes left, I pretty much knew it was over. At 4th and 2 I knew it was over. That didn't stop me from screaming at the TV and getting pissed when Garrard gained 30 more yards than he needed to, but really, I knew it was over.
When push comes to shove, this defense gets thrown all over the place. When a team really wants to score, they do. It's that simple. We coasted to the #1 overall defense (in terms of yardage, not points) because we played crappy offenses like San Francisco and Buffalo, the Jets, Miami in a monsoon, Baltimore twice, Cincinnati twice (they had too many injuries on the o-line and were a shadow of their former selves this season), we played the Rams, we played Cleveland once before they found their offensive mojo and, in the second game, gave up 600 yards in returns so the offense didn't need to move the ball to score. In games where it mattered, where the other team really wanted it, we got pushed around.
The offensive line blows. They can't run block, they can't pass block, and, every time they needed to shove the ball down the other team's throat and kill clock (or score from inside the five), they couldn't do it. It's a sad commentary on Steelers football, but this is now a team that needs to throw the ball to score in the red zone. Ben didn't get 32 TD passes by accident, he got them by necessity... and Fast Willie ended up with only two rushing touchdowns for the season, despite the fact that he had roughly 4,315 carries.
And, special teams are freakin' terrible. Lots of return yards given up, bad angles, slow, confused dudes running down the field on kickoffs and puts, and absolutely no one that scares the opposing team to return the ball. Terrible. Just terrible. I wonder what Bobby April's up to? Or Sean Morey. Or Randel-el. Or even Will Blackmon.
So, basically, this is a team with a franchise QB, a great RB, some very talented WRs, some young talent and depth in the secondary, and a lot of warts. Tomlin and his staff realize this. They understand that they took advantage of a soft schedule and some good timing to win the division and go to the playoffs.
Look for them to keep what they have that's working and get rid of what they have that isn't.
Look for this to be the off-season of change that we were expecting when Cowher retired and Tomlin was named head coach.
Look for the Steelers to not retain Clark Haggans or Aaron Smith. Look for them to seek out defensive tackles and defensive ends that fit the 4-3 defense that Tomlin likes to run. Look for Dick LeBeau to retire and hand the keys over to Tomlin... there are a bunch of good defensive coordinators out there. Dom Capers comes to mind...
Look for them to trade Casey Hampton. Look for them to start making the transition to the 4-3 hard and fast. Faneca will obviously not be retained. Most likely, they'll be able to pick up Max Starks on the cheap after he shops his injured body around the free agent market and finds there aren't greener pastures.
Lawrence Timmons and Lamar Woodley will emerge. Foote and Farrior will fade away. We'll become an offensive team that uses a lot of exotic formations, a lot of tight ends, and runs the ball to "mix it up" after we've set up the run with the pass... kinda like we've done all year.
The team is going to go through a major overhaul and, we'll probably see a losing record next season in what will truly be the "re-building" year for this franchise. But, ya know what? I'm not really upset about it. The dominant teams in the league right now (and probably for the next 8-10 years) are offensive teams that play just enough defense to win.
And, really, I'm fine with the defense having the mentality of, "As long as we hold the other team to 20 points, we're gonna win." I'm totally cool with that. One of the reasons that the Patriots, Colts, and Cowboys rank so well in overall defense (points allowed, not yardage) is because the opposing team immediately feels the need to score as many points as possible. They press, they rush, they go no huddle, they go for it on fourth down, they try to do as many different risk-heavy things as possible to keep the ball or score points. They ultimately end up taking too many risks and shoot themselves in the foot. We need to start putting that kind of pressure on opposing teams. And, we'll be able to do that if we can somehow fix the offensive line or at least make it serviceable enough so that Ben isn't a complete sitting duck.
Now, I'm gonna be back with Playoff Predictions, more than enough draft stuff, and plenty of other things in the off-season. I just wanted to prepare everyone. It's going to be a bumpy ride.
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
Wild Card Preview
Well, so, basically, we're screwed. The defense is falling apart, the offense lost their workhorse running back, 38 guys went on IR since the game against the hated Ravens, Trai Essex is going to be starting at left tackle (if Alan Faneca doesn't), and the Jaguars are pretty damn good.
They already beat us -- and worse than the 29-22 score would indicate -- they can run the ball and stop the run, they've got a pretty good pass defense and a pass offene that's improving. And, even though they're the 5th seed and we're the 4th seed, they're on the road and we're at home, they're a warm weather team and we're a cold weather team... Vegas has them as two point favorites.
So, basically, we're screwed. Totally, completely screwed. These guys are tough, they're confident, they have a ton of talent, finally some stability at quarterback and consistency at wide receiver, and their pass defense (the Achilles heel of this defense during the Jack Del Rio Era) is considerably improved. We're catching them at the wrong time and they're catching us at the right time. They've won six of their last eight. We've lost three of our last four. And we lost to the Jets. And the Broncos. And Steelers West.
I just don't think the Steelers are very good. I don't think it's their year. The 2005 season was magical and special and completely awesome and we won the Super Bowl (as I may or may not have mentioned -- for the record, we did). Seems like a long time ago, doesn't it? But, as I've said repeatedly, a division title, a 10-6 record, and a playoff appearance is damn good for what I assumed would be a re-building season after Cowher officially announced he was retiring (even though he unofficially retired in March of 2006 and forgot to tell everyone).
All that having been said... I said during the 2005 run (and still stand by this) that the playoffs are like a reality show. The Steelers just happen to be the girl that got drunk the first night and threw up in the Bachelor's shoes while he was speed dating in the veranda. They're in. They're one of 12 teams left. So, the Patriots are a beautiful blonde with big tits and an ass that tastes like French vanilla ice cream. So Indianapolis is a stunning red head with a carpet that matches the drapes and nipples you could hand a coat on. They're still all in the same field of 12 at this point. It doesn't matter how anyone got here, it doesn't matter what I think or what anyone else thinks, they're still in the running to... accept the final rose, or whatever happens on that show. I myself prefer Flavor of Love and Rock of Love with Bret Michaels. The point is that, if they win out, no one can take that away from them. Everyone can talk about how they weren't the best team or they got lucky, or whatever. But no one can take it away from them. Anytime someone starts taking smack on Casey Hampton (something I would not recommend because he'll eat you), he can say, "Shut up, bitch! You see this ring?" All the players left standing understand this fact and if you think they're going down without a fight, you're mistaken.
And, everyone in the post-season has an x-factor.
The Titans have Vince Young. You're telling me that, after you watched him emasculate Pete Carroll and everyone on Southern Cal's squad in the Rose Bowl, you can't see him ripping off 4 great games that have the opposing team's defensive coordinator looking at sublets on Craig's List at halftime? Did you see what he did to the Trojans? You know how they cut down the nets after the Final Four? That's what Vince Young did. But to testicles. You're telling me you want to face him with the season on the line? I sure don't.
The Redskins have Joe Gibbs. Say what you want about him losing a step and that the game has passed him by. It's been too long since Gibbs was this close to a Super Bowl. With everything this team has gone through already, you're telling me he hasn't been pulling some serious shit in the background and that he can't inspire those guys to win three games against a dilluted NFC? C'mon.
The Giants have Michael Strahan. He's a big, gap-toothed, scary looking motherfucker that knows this is his last shot at a championship. Soup commercials aside... you really want to get in his way?
All those teams can make it and they have that x-factor. And so do the Steelers.
Ben Roethlisberger has no fear. He has a huge arm. He can bust out of a perfectly executed defense and nail you for 40 yards. Sure, he's unpredictable and he turns the ball over too much, but the Steelers threw up in some dude's shoes. They need to go for broke on this one. They've got nothing to lose, they're two point underdogs at home and their franchise tailback is going to watch the game on crutches.
They need to throw the ball. A lot. And then they need to throw it some more. When they're done throwing it, they need to think about running it, toy with the idea while the defense is on the field, and throw it some more.
As I've mentioned, Jacksonville is a great team. But, their weaknesses are that their secondary, while improving, isn't that great, and that they're not built to come from behind. They just aren't. If we jump out to a two touchdown lead on these guys, they're done. The home crowd will be fired up, they'll be looking for blood, and the Jaguars are simply not explosive enough to overcome more than a 10 point deficit. In spite of the fact that we don't have the muscle to put a game away, our best shot is to get up on these guys early and keep our foot on the gas. If we demoralize them in the first half, they'll try to come back in the second half, but they just don't have the firepower.
We need to come out like we're already down 14 points. Arians needs to call every freakin' pass in his playbook, then draw some shit up in the dirt between possessions. LeBeau actually doesn't need to get that creative. That'll come at Indianapolis, then at New England (or the other way around, if we get that far). But, Arians needs to come out swinging. Hard.
The best player still standing and the best player on the field Saturday night is Ben Roethlisberger. Jacksonville is going to stack the line of scrimmage and dare Ben to beat them. And that's precisely what he needs to do.
They already beat us -- and worse than the 29-22 score would indicate -- they can run the ball and stop the run, they've got a pretty good pass defense and a pass offene that's improving. And, even though they're the 5th seed and we're the 4th seed, they're on the road and we're at home, they're a warm weather team and we're a cold weather team... Vegas has them as two point favorites.
So, basically, we're screwed. Totally, completely screwed. These guys are tough, they're confident, they have a ton of talent, finally some stability at quarterback and consistency at wide receiver, and their pass defense (the Achilles heel of this defense during the Jack Del Rio Era) is considerably improved. We're catching them at the wrong time and they're catching us at the right time. They've won six of their last eight. We've lost three of our last four. And we lost to the Jets. And the Broncos. And Steelers West.
I just don't think the Steelers are very good. I don't think it's their year. The 2005 season was magical and special and completely awesome and we won the Super Bowl (as I may or may not have mentioned -- for the record, we did). Seems like a long time ago, doesn't it? But, as I've said repeatedly, a division title, a 10-6 record, and a playoff appearance is damn good for what I assumed would be a re-building season after Cowher officially announced he was retiring (even though he unofficially retired in March of 2006 and forgot to tell everyone).
All that having been said... I said during the 2005 run (and still stand by this) that the playoffs are like a reality show. The Steelers just happen to be the girl that got drunk the first night and threw up in the Bachelor's shoes while he was speed dating in the veranda. They're in. They're one of 12 teams left. So, the Patriots are a beautiful blonde with big tits and an ass that tastes like French vanilla ice cream. So Indianapolis is a stunning red head with a carpet that matches the drapes and nipples you could hand a coat on. They're still all in the same field of 12 at this point. It doesn't matter how anyone got here, it doesn't matter what I think or what anyone else thinks, they're still in the running to... accept the final rose, or whatever happens on that show. I myself prefer Flavor of Love and Rock of Love with Bret Michaels. The point is that, if they win out, no one can take that away from them. Everyone can talk about how they weren't the best team or they got lucky, or whatever. But no one can take it away from them. Anytime someone starts taking smack on Casey Hampton (something I would not recommend because he'll eat you), he can say, "Shut up, bitch! You see this ring?" All the players left standing understand this fact and if you think they're going down without a fight, you're mistaken.
And, everyone in the post-season has an x-factor.
The Titans have Vince Young. You're telling me that, after you watched him emasculate Pete Carroll and everyone on Southern Cal's squad in the Rose Bowl, you can't see him ripping off 4 great games that have the opposing team's defensive coordinator looking at sublets on Craig's List at halftime? Did you see what he did to the Trojans? You know how they cut down the nets after the Final Four? That's what Vince Young did. But to testicles. You're telling me you want to face him with the season on the line? I sure don't.
The Redskins have Joe Gibbs. Say what you want about him losing a step and that the game has passed him by. It's been too long since Gibbs was this close to a Super Bowl. With everything this team has gone through already, you're telling me he hasn't been pulling some serious shit in the background and that he can't inspire those guys to win three games against a dilluted NFC? C'mon.
The Giants have Michael Strahan. He's a big, gap-toothed, scary looking motherfucker that knows this is his last shot at a championship. Soup commercials aside... you really want to get in his way?
All those teams can make it and they have that x-factor. And so do the Steelers.
Ben Roethlisberger has no fear. He has a huge arm. He can bust out of a perfectly executed defense and nail you for 40 yards. Sure, he's unpredictable and he turns the ball over too much, but the Steelers threw up in some dude's shoes. They need to go for broke on this one. They've got nothing to lose, they're two point underdogs at home and their franchise tailback is going to watch the game on crutches.
They need to throw the ball. A lot. And then they need to throw it some more. When they're done throwing it, they need to think about running it, toy with the idea while the defense is on the field, and throw it some more.
As I've mentioned, Jacksonville is a great team. But, their weaknesses are that their secondary, while improving, isn't that great, and that they're not built to come from behind. They just aren't. If we jump out to a two touchdown lead on these guys, they're done. The home crowd will be fired up, they'll be looking for blood, and the Jaguars are simply not explosive enough to overcome more than a 10 point deficit. In spite of the fact that we don't have the muscle to put a game away, our best shot is to get up on these guys early and keep our foot on the gas. If we demoralize them in the first half, they'll try to come back in the second half, but they just don't have the firepower.
We need to come out like we're already down 14 points. Arians needs to call every freakin' pass in his playbook, then draw some shit up in the dirt between possessions. LeBeau actually doesn't need to get that creative. That'll come at Indianapolis, then at New England (or the other way around, if we get that far). But, Arians needs to come out swinging. Hard.
The best player still standing and the best player on the field Saturday night is Ben Roethlisberger. Jacksonville is going to stack the line of scrimmage and dare Ben to beat them. And that's precisely what he needs to do.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)