In related news, BET THE FARM ON GREEN BAY!
New York at Green Bay:
Here's my problem with picking the Giants: They've already come so far. They have a lot of the same qualities that the 2005 Steelers had (ya know, the team that won three playoff games on the road, then the Super Bowl); pressure defense, excellent running game with a small, nimble guy that can break a big play and a big, fat guy that can wear down defenses, a good collection of receivers, but no all stars for a defense to focus on, chemisty, a coach that had been under fire and considered a playoff failure, and a quarterback from the 2004 draft.
That's a lot of things to have in common.
The issue is this Championship Game match-up. I was convinced that the Steelers were going to beat the Broncos in the 2005 AFC Championship Game, but it wasn't because they were "on a roll" or "peaking at the right time." It was because they had a fantastic match-up against Denver. The Patriots seriously would've crushed us if they had beaten the Broncos. But, Denver won and we had the right group of players at the right positions to take advantage of the guys they had. That simple.
Green Bay is a terrible match-up for the Giants.
- Green Bay's receivers get most of their yards after the catch. The Giants secondary can't tackle.
- Brett Favre has found his deep ball mojo again and New York has three cornerbacks that were hurt in the game against the Cowboys that will either be out for the Championship or hindered by injury. And, their safeties aren't the greatest -- they'll get burned deep at least once.
- The game's in Lambeau Field. Okay, Mile High is a tough place to play, too, but there's too much history at Lambeau. The Packers fans have been waiting for this for too long. They'll be hammered, full of sausages, and ready to cheer their beloved quarterback to victory. They've watched this team all season. They know how good it is.
- Related Point: Too Many Concern Rays. Google Dave Barry Concern Rays. Too many people want the Packers and Favre to win this game too badly for them to lose.
- Green Bay has a tough, physical secondary that likes to grab, tug, pound on, and beat receivers all game. And they don't get flagged for this. And they're up against Plaxico and Amani Toomer.
- Take how much the Packers fans, the media, Rupert Murdoch, and the football-watching public want Brett Favre to go to the Super Bowl. Then triple it. Then triple it again. That's how much every player for Green Bay wants Favre to not lose this game.
- The Packers run defense is underrated. Especially their front seven and definitely their front four, which gets too much credit for being able to rush the passer and not enough credit for being good run defenders. Plus which, the cornerbacks will play close to the line of scrimmage and support the run, which takes away New York's biggest weapon -- they like to spread the defense out and run big-ass Brandon Jacobs through big holes against smaller defenders and that ain't happening against the Packers.
- Did I mention that this game is at Lambeau? And everyone wants Favre to win? And the history? And the fact that it's Eli Manning on the road in a very hostile environment against a team that likes to pressure the quarterback up the middle? And they're one gam from the Super Bowl? And everyone wants Favre to win?
Too much for the Giants to overcome.
Packers 28, Giants 17
San Diego at New England:
Okay. I'll save you scrolling down and checking the prediction first. I'm picking the Chargers.
The worst part is that the match-ups favor New England. The match-ups always favor New England. I just keep thinking back to the 1994 AFC title game. Remember how bad the Chargers were that year? Remember how good the Steelers were? That '94 team was probably the best team Cowher ever put together. Neil O'Donnell was still young, but he was hitting his stride. The receivers were underrated and very efficient. And you had the two-headed beast of Bam Morris and Barry Foster. And the secondary's worst player was Darren Perry -- before he got slow and forgot how to tackle. That was a great team that was heavily favored and lost at home to the 4th seeded Chargers.
Here's where the similarities get interesting: The Friday before that game, some reporter for the San Diego... uh, we'll call the local paper there the Post-Gazette. Someone for the San Diego Post-Gazette basically wrote an entire article that said, "There's no way the Steelers win by the 12 points they're favored by. This Chargers team is just too lucky."
They beat the Colts, who were finally healthy, on the road after their three best offensive players were either out of the game or playing with an injury that should have kept them out of the game.
Norv Turner is a crappy coach, but he's an excellent offensive coordinator and an even better playcaller. When he was forced to get creative with the back-ups and situational guys he had to work with, he came up with some awesome stuff. Now, he's probably got Tomlinson and Philip Rivers back for this game and he knows what other weapons he has. New England's big weakness is that their defense is a hundred thousand years old and it's slow. The Chargers have too many fast guys and Turner is in too much of a zone.
Bellichick will get creative on defense, but he only has enough talent to focus on stopping Tomlinson and forcing Rivers to beat him. Well, Rivers has proved this post season that that's not a good strategy on defense and Tomlinson's back-ups have proven that they contribute more to the offense than just giving the star a breather.
And this is the biggest game of the season for the Chargers. They hate the Patriots. They're still pissed that New England beat them at home last year and beat the crap out of them in this season's re-match. Tomlinson has a beef with them, Shawne Merriman has a beef with them. Everyone for San Diego has more desire to beat the ever-living-crap out of the Patriots than the other way around. At some point, the pressure of a perfect season has to catch up with these guys. Or, at least, I hope it catches up with them.
But, back to the Chargers being lucky: They forced 48 turnovers this year, best in the league. You don't force that many turnovers without being good on defense, but you especially don't force that many without being really, really lucky. When a ball gets tipped, a Chargers defender always seems to end up with it. The Colts were about to start routing San Diego last week when Marvin Harrison fumbled for no real reason and completely changed momentum. They got their hands on more Peyton Manning passes than all defenses did all season combined. They survived two furious comeback attempts by the second-best offense in the league in the last four minutes.
The Patriots have, to some degree, had luck on their side and they've stayed away from turnovers all season. That could very well change on Sunday. And, if it does, it's bad, bad news for New England.
On defense, their secondary has gotten way better, they did a good job against the Colts, and Ted Cottrell knows enough about the zone blitz to pressure Brady with four guys and keep the zone in tact on the back end. Teams that have pretty much held the Patriots in check -- meaning right around 30 points -- have used deep zones, letting New England run on them and complete short passes, but not burn them deep.
Where teams have recently screwed themselves is by letting the Patriots offense intimidate them. They haven't been patient enough on defense and they have been trying too hard on offense. When you're constantly thinking about not screwing up, you're going to screw up eventually. Teams panic and try to score 14 points per play. It's kinda like what happened to Cleveland in the second game this year. They were pressing because they knew we were better and they were intimidated by us.
The Chargers -- at least this version of the Chargers -- don't panic. Billy Freakin' Volek was in at quarterback and Michael Turner and Darren Sproles were sharing time at tailback for an entire half last game. And San Diego didn't panic. The Colts kept coming at them and scored a few big plays, but the Chargers didn't panic.
There's an edge and a lack of fear in this team. That's what they were missing last season when these Patriots bounced them from the playoffs. They're as talented now as they were than and they're more confident.
I realize this is a dumb pick, but it's not like I bet my house on it. GO PACK GO!
Chargers 28, Patriots 25
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