Super Bowl Preview

Here's my issue with this game. If you look at the match-ups, the Giants actually have a chance. I'll go on record as saying I think the Patriots will win, but I think there isn't much of a chance that they'll cover. The Giants just present too many problems for them.

Look at the teams that gave New England trouble this year (not including the Giants, obviously): Philly, Indy, the hated Ravens, and the Chargers. In all other games, the Patriots either had a very comfortable lead and pulled away, or they had a big lead and blew the other team out. All four teams have something in common: They all can run the ball and they all can pressure the quarterback. Lots of analysts have talked about the fact that the hated Ravens, Eagles, and San Diego all did a great job of mixing up coverages, but the fact is that they fucked with Tom Brady by pressuring him. The Eagles and hated Ravens did it by sending five or six guys several plays in a row, then laying off and rushing two or three guys. The Colts and Chargers did it the old fashioned way, by rushing four. I know, I know, people will say the Chargers blitzed on every play because they have a three man defensive line and they were rushing four guys. But, Shawne Merriman rushes the QB so often, he may as well be a lineman.

The Colts held New England to 24 points (and 10 points through the first three quarters) by pressuring with their front four and playing it safe in the back seven. The Chargers held them to 21 points by playing some zone, some man, and switching it up often enough that Tom Brady actually had to think a little bit when he looked at the field and tried to figure out the coverage scheme. The more he has to think, the longer the front four has to pressure him. The more pressure he sees, the more likely he'll make a mistake. And, really, the G-Men need to hope for another three interception effort.

But, the thing about the Giants secondary is that it really isn't as crappy as I thought and they're significantly helped by the fact that their front four generates a ton of pressure (league-high 53 sacks). Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a smart dude and this is a disciplined bunch of guys. The key is pressuring Brady, mixing up coverages and, above all, tackling people.

The Patriots offense is really, really, really simple. Everyone talks about how brilliant Brady is, but he's really just exceptionally good at working the clutch on the Ferrari that he's driving. He's got the best #1 receiver in the league and the best slot guy in the league. His #2 and #4 guys aren't bad -- the #4 guy was the #2 guy on the Patriots last year, before all the trades -- but they're made better by the fact that no one's paying any attention to them.

If you put everyone in the end zone and try to keep the play in front of you, Brady will throw underneath stuff to Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk, with occasional screens to Donte Stallworth and Randy Moss. When he throws that underneath stuff, the first guy in needs to tackle the receiver. Pure and simple. It's not like there have been a ton of missed tackles in the games I've watched of the Patriots, it's just that everyone on their offense is dangerous with the ball in their hands. So, in order to win, the Giants need to tackle better than anyone, including themselves in Week 17, has tackled thus far this year. As soon as someone on the Patriots catches the ball, they need to go to the turf.

In the previous game between these two teams, the Giants took away the deep ball, so Brady threw a bunch of dinky passes to Welker, Faulk, and Stallworth. Once the Giants secondary started creeping up to stop this, Brady went deep to Moss. And, bottom line, if you don't protect your safeties and make them think too much, the Patriots will downright fucking kill you. We didn't protect Anthony Smith and look what happened. If the safeties are allowed to think for themselves, they're done for. Plain and simple. No mater how much crap Brady completes in front of them, don't move them up. Tell them to stay the fuck back and run in whatever direction Moss is running in. The Giants failed to do this in the first game and Moss was open deep on back-to-back plays. He cashed in the second for a touchdown after dropping the first.

Out of every team that played the Patriots this year, the Chargers did the best job of covering deep, tackling short, and mixing up coverages to make Brady think. And they still lost. While I really think that, if they stick with something similar to what San Diego did, the Giants can have similar success, it still means that Eli Manning and the offense need to score more than 21 points.

And, really, it comes down to whether or not center Shaun O'Hara can block nose tackle Vince Wilfork one-on-one. Wilfork's a huge, athletic, powerful dude. Think of how good Casey Hampton was in 2005, then add a little more speed. That's what we're talking about. Remember how we couldn't run the ball up the middle on the Patriots? That's because Sean Mahan's a hack and would need six dudes and a chainsaw to stop Wilfork. See how much trouble Jacksonville had? Their center, Brad Meester, despite his bad-ass first name, is not much better than Mahan.

Two guys in the NFL can win a one-on-one battle with Wilfork about half the time (which is really all you can hope for): Jeff Saturday of the Colts and... wait for it... Shaun O'Hara of the Giants. If O'Hara can handle Wilfork by himself (if not most of the time, all of the time), the Giants can score more than 21 points. If he can't, they can't.

If he can, that means their guards can bust through the line and go kill senior citizens Junior Seau, Tedy Bruschi, and Rodney Harrison. All three of those guys are great players and they're very smart, but they can only get beat on so long before they start taking chances, taking bad angles, and attempting to "run around" blockers so they don't get hit. They're old, slow, and can only take so much of a pounding. They won't give up, they'll just start being stupid.

That means the running game will be successful for New York. If the running game is successful, that means that Eli can use the playaction passing that he runs so effectively. If the passing game and the running game are both working, then the offense will click. When the Giants offense clicks, they can score lots and lots of points on anyone... just not as many as, say, the Patriots offense when it is clicking, so the defense needs to make sure the Patriots offense isn't clicking.

If O'Hara doesn't stop Wilfork one-on-one, the Aged Three will be able to play their game: shoot the gaps, take the shortest distance to the ballcarrier, make the tackle on the first try and, in Harrison's case, jump onto the pile late with your elbows and cleats flying and not get flagged.

If the Aged Three are able to play their game, this becomes a shoot-out between Brady and Manning and a chess match between Bellichick and Tom Coughlin. In that situation, a 12-point spread starts to look mighty attractive and the smart bet is on the Patriots covering the "over" all by themselves. Eli has come a long way and he's been very efficient in the playoffs, but he hasn't come that far.

I would like to take this opportunity to point out the fact that O'Hara did not play in Week 17 against the Patriots and the Giants still scored 35 points.

Okay. So, say the Giants do the things I mentioned (pressure Brady, mix coverages, O'Hara blocks Wilfork all by himself). Bellichick is going to adjust. He will make the following adjustments:

1. Put 12 tight ends in the game and run three plays - Laurence Maroney left, Laurence Maroney right, and Laurence Maroney middle - for at least a full quarter, or until the Giants flinch.
2. Blitz the shit out of Eli for at least a full quarter, or until Eli is carried off on a stretcher with a dribble cup.

If the Giants can withstand that and win the turnover battle by at least two, they've got a shot. The only issue is they'll still end up facing the fourth quarter with the score close in a playoff game against the Patriots. And, even though they've gotten a little glam-tastic this season, this is still Brady, Bellichick, and all the other big game guys that have won championships for this team for a long time.

Unless the Giants are up by 10 with seven minutes left in the fourth quarter and holding the ball, they shouldn't feel too cocky. New England is too lucky and too clutch in tight situations to leave anything to chance.

Finally, there's a big x-factor in this game: The officials. As much as I hate the pissing and moaning of Seahawks fan, we had a lot of favorable calls in Super Bowl XL (which we won, btw).
The Patriots haven't dominated a good team since they kicked the shit out of us, but they've had more than their fair share of breaks.

1. Trailing against the Giants in Week 17, Tom Brady got sacked on 3rd and 22. Due to an illegal chuck penalty against New York, they got first and 10 and eventually scored a touchdown.
2. Towards the end of the first half of that game, two defenders for the Patriots held Brandon Jacobs down (delay of game on the defense) for eight seconds (which is a big deal, considering there were 38 seconds left in the half when he was tackled), then proceeded to grab him and yell at him when he got up and tried to get lined up for the snap. The officials, standing around and doing nothing, finally reacted... when Eli called a timeout. During the timeout, two separate New England defenders poked Jacobs in the eye and taunted him. End result? A five yard delay of game penalty on the defense and the clock was re-set to 33 seconds. So, instead of two personal foul penalties and a delay of game penalty, the Giants got five yards and lost five seconds. At least they didn't lose their timeout and Brandon Jacobs could still see. Nice of the officials to do that.
3. Mike Vrabel leg-whipped Philip Rivers in the AFC Championship game after Rivers threw the ball on the first series. No flag. Even though Vrabel was lying on his back, Rivers was on his side, then got up limping.
4. New England has not been flagged for offensive holding since Week 16. And that penalty was called on a back-up offensive lineman. While they say that you could realistically call someone for holding on every play, I find it very hard to believe that no referee saw someone on the Patriots that was guilty of holding someone from the other team for three entire games.
5. Rodney Harrison hasn't been called for a personal foul thus far in the playoffs. You could call one on him on any given play -- even when the Pats are on offense -- so it bears watching when the stakes are higher.

In the two playoff games the Patriots have lost in the Bellichick-Brady Era, especially the 2005 Divisional Round game against the Broncos, they were on the losing side of several calls. All their goodwill and karma from that game has been used up at this point. The Giants, meanwhile, have been generally shit upon by fate in the last four games, but they're still 3-1. Just like when the refs made it up to us in the Super Bowl for the flubbed interception by Troy against Indy, it's entirely possible that the favorable calls (and non-calls) New England has been getting all year will come to an end and fall greatly in the Giants favor.

Still, it's Eli Manning against Tom Brady.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Giants 24.