Playoff Predictions

My brother e-mailed me yesterday and said, "What? No playoff predictions?" Well, I was still kinda licking my wounds and I'm starting a new position at work and my vagina's kinda sprained...

So, here they are. Better late than never. In order of appearance:

Seattle at Green Bay:

Shaun Alexander belongs in the Smithsonian with the Fonz's jacket, Tom Tupa's leg, and Brad Johnson's arm. All of him. He's completely finished and anyone that either kept him or drafted him early in Fantasy Football had it coming. At any rate, he's does and Maurice Morris is only marginally better. So, that means that Hasselback has to throw the ball 40 times against one of the best secondaries in the NFL all while being rushed by a damn good front four that's going up against an overrated and over-the-hill offensive line and still trying to deal with Nick Barnett and AJ Hawk.

A lot of people want to talk about playoff experience. Holmgren and the Hawks have it, Favre is about the only person on the Packers that does. But, they're at home, they've got a way better defense, and there's NO WAY that Favre is going to lose what may be his last game under these circumstances: At home, against his former mentor, and with an excellent chance of facing the Cowboys for a trip to the Super Bowl. And, people will say that Holmgren knows Favre real well and that he'll be able to get in Favre's head... How old was Favre when Holmgren left? 26? 27? How many Wrangler jeans commercials had he done? How many touchdowns did he have? Saying the Holmgren has an advantage on Favre because he coached him ten years ago is like saying that Jim Mora would have an advantage on Peyton Manning or Lloyd Carr would have an edge on Tom Brady. It was TEN YEARS AGO. Favre has changed so much since then. I mean, the last time Holmgren coached Favre, Favre's Dad was still alive and so was half his extended family. No gray hairs. No Wrangler commercials. More skill, more cavalier attitude. I guess he's not completely different, but he's very different.

Too much defense, too much Favre, too much Lambeau, not enough left in Shaun Alexander's tank.

Quick note: The Seahawks should change their motto to, "The NFL's Most Anonymous Good Team." Other than Alexander and Hasselback, how many guys can you name on this team (remember that Mack Strong retired and Curt Warner played 15 years ago, ditto Steve Largent)? They're never on Monday Night Football and no one ever talks about them despite the fact that they've won their division four years in a row. And, they draw the "Bitch Spot" playoff telecast. Seriously. Aside from fans of the respective teams and degenerate gamblers, who watches all of the 4:30 Saturday game? For the most part, I catch the two Sunday games and the Saturday night game, but I'm always too busy getting dinner or going to church, or watching something else when that 4:30 Saturday game is on. I hate Seattle and they're a bunch of whiny bitches, but would it kill the NFL to drop them into at least the 1 p.m. Sunday match-up?

Packers 31, Seahawks 20

Jacksonville at New England:

I've heard a lot of noise abot how the Jags are peaking at the right time, they can run the ball well, they can control the clock, and they could surprise the Patriots. Really. The Patriots. At Foxborough. When Bellichick has two weeks to prepare. And, at least for the moment, everyone on the New England roster can breathe because the pressure of an undefeated regular season is behind them. And, as I mentioned before the Steelers-Jags game, the two weaknesses Jacksonville has are that their secondary isn't great and they aren't built to come from behind.

So... pop quiz: What are the two things this Patriots team does really, really, really, really, exceptionally well? Wait for it... THEY THROW THE BALL AND JUMP ON TEAMS EARLY. The pundits are suggesting that this won't end up as a game where the Pats jump out to a 14-0 first quarter lead and then steamroll the Jags. And, honestly, I don't understand why they feel that way.

Bellichick takes away the running game (Jones-Drew and Taylor actually run the same plays, it's just a matter of recognizing who is running with the ball and stopping that person based on their tendencies; you don't have to adjust to different blocking schemes or gaps, you just have to focus on Taylor's legs and Jones-Drew's feet). Garrard can't carry this game on his own. He's good, but he's not that good. Few are. I'm thinking maybe Brady and Manning are that good. And that's it. The Jags just won't be able to keep pace with the Patriots. They just can't.

For everyone that thinks the Jags defense that can hang with the Pats offense: The Steelers scored 19 points in the fourth quarter in the Wild Card game. Nineteen points in one quarter. The Steelers. What did the Steelers do on offense to accomplish this? Wait for it... they threw the ball.

To me, it seems too simple. Which is why I'm probably wrong.

Patriots 42, Jaguars 22

San Diego at Indianapolis:

Here's another team with a shaky pass defense facing a great quarterback. When Manning threw six picks in Week 10, the Colts had only 17 active players on offense. Seventeen. Eleven of those guys had to be in the game at any given point, so it limited options on offense.

Manning threw six interceptions, Darren Sproles returned two kicks for touchdowns for the Chargers, and the Colts needed to miss a 23-yard field goal at the end of regulation in order for San Diego to win. And now the game is in Indy. And Indy has Tony Dungy and San Diego has Norv Turner.

I can't imagine that the Chargers have any hope of victory. I just can't. Not with Philip Rivers on the road, no receivers for San Diego, a banged up Antonio Gates, and the only thing the Chargers have going on offense being LaDanian Tomlinson. Indy won 13 games with half a team this year because of injuries. They lost 81 games to starters due to injury, which was second in the league. First in the league? The Bills with 87. How was the Bills season? How'd that work out for them? Well, now pretty much everyone is healthy.

They'll have more than 17 players active on offense in this one and that's a bad sign for the Chargers. I see this as another, "Really good home team kicks the shit out of an overmatched road team by jumping to a big early lead and wearing the opposing team down in order to rest up and prepare for the Championship Game" situation. Just like Pats-Jags, this will probably get ugly.

Colts 38, Chargers 17

Giants at Cowboys:

See, I don't trust Eli Manning. I just don't. But, he beat the Bucs last week in Tampa and recent history suggests that there's always at least one upset in the Divisional Round.

Here's the thing: As much as I don't trust Eli, I trust the Cowboys defense even less. They don't get a lot of pressure on the quarterback without mega-blitzing, they don't tackle particularly well, and there are big holes in their secondary.

On offense, they don't run the ball all that well and have been leaning on the passing game with Terrell Owens. Even if Owens plays, he won't be 100%. Terry Glenn's coming back, but he hasn't played all season and only recently started practicing. The Giants generate a lot of pressure just with their front four -- Justin Tuck had 10 sacks this year even though he only played on passing downs -- and they've got big, gap-toothed, pissed off Michael Strahan. Their secondary is suspect, too, but if all Dallas has as a passing threat is Jason Whitten and they can't run the ball, they're in for a long afternoon.

It's true that the Cowboys beat the Giants twice already this year. But, if history is anything to shout about, it's tough to beat the same team three times in one season. These teams don't like each other, teams from the same division always play each other tough in the post season, and, if it comes down to a close game, at least New York can run the ball and Manning has more than one "go to" guy. Romo's had at least one, sometimes three, all season. How does he do when he only has one (or, one-and-a-half, depending on how much credit you give Owens)?

I know they're at home, I know they're the #1 seed, I know they've got a lot of talent and broke all kinds of franchise records this season. But, I also know that they've got Wade Phillips as their coach and a quarterback whose only playoff experience was botching a snap in Seattle last season.

History: The Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since 1996.

History: The 2005 Colts were a team with a juggernaut offense and a shaky defense that lost momentum going into the Divisional Round as the #1 seed. Remember what happend to them? They got beat by a Steeler team that ran the ball well, didn't depend on their inexperienced quarterback too much, and applied a lot of pressure on defense. And they went on to win Super Bowl XL. Might have mentioned that before.

History: One road team always comes up with an upset in the Divisional Round. Steelers over Colts and Panthers over Bears in 2005, Pats over Chargers in 2006. To me, this looks like the most likely upset.

Giants 28, Cowboys 24