Stanley Cup Final Thus Far

I'm sorry. I sincerely meant to give everyone (all three of you, I talked to another regular reader this weekend) a prediction and a breakdown of the Final.

Here are the Cliff Notes from my breakdown:

1. The Red Wings are good.
2. The Pens have more talent.
3. The edge in the Osgood vs. Fleury match-up goes to Osgood.
4. The edge in the Babcock vs. Bylsma match-up goes to Babcock.
5. However, the reason we'd win is because we're a more complete team than last year and Bylsma has us playing aggressive, whereas Therrian had us playing more passive. I thought that, if we took the fight to the Red Wings, we'd force more turnovers, spend more time in their zone, shoot more, and that would translate to more goals.

All of that added up to Pens in six. Still possible, but not bloody likely.

Here's the thing...

I feel much better about these first two games than I did about the first two games last year. Last year, I was just praying that we didn't get swept. This year, I think we can take both games at home.

We already overcame a 0-2 deficit and won a series in these playoffs. I know, it was against a much weaker Capitals team, but there are still plenty of similarities between the two series thus far.

1. We're outshooting and outhustling Detroit. I repeat: We have more shots on goal than the Detroit Red Wings for the first two games of this series. I would also like to add that those two games were played in Joe Louis Arena (where there's something up with the ice -- everyone on the Pens seems to be fighting the puck and it never ends up where they think it will end up). I cannot express how shocked I am that we outshot them in two straight games in their building. That never, ever, ever, ever, ever happens.
2. Then again, in the extended version of the breakdown, I was intending to say that if we somehow manage to outshoot them, we'll win the series. So... so much for that.
3. Their goaltender is red hot. I knew Osgood was a great goalie coming into this series -- we saw firsthand last year and he was tremendous in the Blackhawks series -- but I didn't know he was this good. We eventually broke Varlamov, but I'd also give the edge to Osgood in an Osgood vs. Varlamov match-up. I'll give three keys to us winning this series here in a minute, but it goes without saying (even though I'm saying it) that we need to keep the pressure on Osgood. He's already a little too comfortable with the amount of heat we've put on him already. If that turns down, he'll slide on some comfy slippers and make himself a hot totty. We can't let that happen.
4. We can't catch a freakin' break. All the bounces, all the momentum, all the the little things are going Detroit's way. Now, a lot of that is them making their own luck. I'm not taking anything away from them. But, seriously, two inches one way or another on Sunday and we win 4-3. In the Capitals series, the breaks weren't as one-sided and some of the bounces went our way, which would lead one to believe that it would ultimately swing our way. They're so one-sided in the Final, though, that I'm not sure the tide will turn. Also, Detroit's good enough to beat us without luck, which is not a statement I'd make about the Washington Capitals.
5. Like the Capitals series, I think it could very easily be 1-1 right now instead of 2-0 in favor of Detroit. Really, for the Capitals series, I thought it was pretty plausible that we could be up 2-0 instead of down 2-0, but, ultimately, I think the scores of the two games at JLA were misleading and Sunday's game seriously could've gone either way.

Obviously, we have a lot going against us. We're down 0-2 in a seven game series, we're not catching any breaks, our goaltender may very well have post-traumatic stress disorder, and... oh yeah! The Red Wings are pretty good, too.

In addition to everything we're already doing -- being aggressive, taking the game to them, spending a ridiculous amount of time in their zone, forcing turnovers, not making dumb mistakes in the neutral zone -- we need to do these three things. And we need to do them well.

1. Fleury needs to concentrate like he's never concentrated before. He's lost focus a number of times in these playoffs, but it never really burned us that bad. Well, it has officially burned us bad thus far. He needs to get back in a zone like he was in games three through six last year. And he needs to do it now. Osgood is already in that zone, so it's far too lopsided at this point.
2. We need a little luck. More to the point, we need a shit-ton of luck. We need more luck than the Red Wings have had thus far. And Detroit needs to lose their luck. So, this isn't something we can control, really, but we need it. Badly.
3. We need to realize that the refs are calling a very loose game. I'm not saying the officials screwed us over, I'm not saying we're not getting any calls, and I'm definitely not saying that Clark Haggans was offsides and Ben Roethlisberger never crossed the plane. What I am saying is that the refs are calling the games loose. They're not really using their whistles. They're not calling a bunch of penalties. They're letting the players decide the outcome of the game and that's how it should be. However, no one on the Penguins seems to have realized this yet, whereas everyone on the Red Wings figured it out about halfway through the first period of Game 1. I am not mad at the officials. I am not mad at the Red Wings. I am mad at the Penguins for not realizing this right away -- or, really, at all thus far -- and not taking advantage of it.

Hey, it's a tall order. It's going to be awful-damn difficult, but not impossible. I think we can do it, starting tonight.