Steelers-Raiders Review

Well, I was towards the end of a post about this game and it all got deleted somehow. I think I selected all text, then somehow hit delete, then it auto-saved before I could hit Undo. I really don't know what happened.

Cliff notes from that post:

1. It felt good to get a blow-out win after getting blown out against New England.
2. It felt good to blow out the Raiders, even though it's not much of a rivalry at this point.
3. The Steelers should keep throwing and keep blitzing, because that's what seems to work for them. They didn't blitz Tom Brady because the first thing they teach you at defensive coordinator school is that Tom Brady will destroy your life essence and steal the souls of your children if you blitz him. Not blitzing him did not work, so maybe they should blitz him a lot if they meet in the playoffs. When the defense has performed well, gotten sacks, and forced turnovers, they've been blitzing. So... keep up with that.
4. They can't withstand any more injuries to the offensive and defensive lines. Injuries in those areas will catch up with them and be their undoing when they play better teams.
5. While I don't think that the Steelers are being targeted by the officials, I think that the officials are definitely calling tighter games on James Harrison. That could kill the team once they play better teams and once the games get closer (i.e. in the post season).
6. I will not complain about the officiating and blame the officials if that happens, because I live in Pittsburgh and root for the Steelers, not in Seattle and root for the Seahawks. (They're still bitter so I can still be bitter about them being bitter.)
7. Next week is not a trap game. The Bills are squirrely and the Steelers know they have to win all the games on their schedule to keep up with the hated Ravens. If Buffalo wins next week, it's not because the Steelers got caught in a trap. It is because the Bills are sneaky and possibly a decent team.

It's going to be an interesting season. I'm not going to get as excited about the rest of the season as I was depressed about the rest of the season after the Patriots game. It's a long season and I think that... well, it's a process. It's a war of attrition. So, I will continue to evaluate the season as it progresses.

Steelers-Raiders Preview

The problem with this game -- and the remainder of the season -- is that it's difficult/going to be difficult to predict with any degree of accuracy what the Steelers are going to do.

I know that the Raiders are doing better thus far this season than they've done in any nine game stretch to open up the year since 2002. I know that Oakland is the only team that Ben Roethlisberger has never beaten. I know that the Raiders are more talented this year than they've been since 2002.

But, they're still not as good as the Steelers, even with the injuries. Some guys are starting to come back and the guys that are subbing in for the guys on injured reserve have had some time to adjust to a starting role. The Steelers aren't as talented a team as they were in 2008, or maybe even 2009, but they're still more talented than Oakland.

Then there's the fact that everyone's talking about New England giving the rest of the league the "blueprint" for how to beat the Steelers. Well, I think I mentioned in the review for the Patriots game that that's been the blueprint since approximately December 2001. Some teams can use that blueprint because they have the right personnel, some teams cannot. And, in general, New England kicked the Steelers butts all over the field and played considerably better on Sunday night. So... if you're going to say they discovered the blueprint, then the blueprint is really that the way to beat the Steelers is to play way better than them on offense and defense. Taking that the rest of the way, really the blueprint for any team to beat any other team is to play better on offense and defense. It's not really a special thing, it's kind of what every team tries to do.

Still, if you're going to say that the way to beat the Steelers is to spread out the offense and pass the ball 75 percent of the time, then the Raiders just don't have the horses. They have Jason Campbell, not Tom Brady. They have Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bay, not Deion Branch and Wes Welker. They have Zach Miller, not Rob Gronkowski. Maybe not that last one, since Miller's actually better than Gronkowski, but you wouldn't be able to tell that on Sunday night.

Most of Oakland's offense revolves around Darren McFadden and their resurgence as a team this season has gone in line with his resurgence as a player. Historically -- and thus far this season -- any team that needs to run the ball for their offense to work hasn't done well against the Steelers. They're really, really tough to run against, so Campbell is going to have to win the game pretty much on his own. That's possible but not likely.

The Raiders are 24th in the league against the run on defense. The Steelers haven't been able to run the ball well since Week 3, but Week 3 was also the last time that everything was clicking on offense. They kind of padded their stats against Cleveland with a late touchdown, but they still scored 28 points and Mendenhall still rushed for 84 yards. They need to run the ball to set up play action and establish balance on offense in order score a sufficient number of points to win. They scored a sufficient number of points on Sunday night, but they still lost badly because they allowed 39 points on defense.

I don't think Oakland has it in them to score 39 points against the Steelers tomorrow. I just don't. Again, not saying it's not possible, just not bloody likely.

All week, the players and Tomlin have been talking about how they don't want to repeat last year's collapse. Sunday is a good chance for them to back that claim up. There are still two games left in the month of November and the next game is against the 1-8 Bills. If they finish November with two more wins, then the season will be less on the brink, they'll be more confident, and maybe they can finish strong. A loss on Sunday would not kill the season, but it would certainly put it on life support.

My big problem, though, is that I know that the Steelers should be able to run the ball, set up the pass, and score points on offense. I know that they should be able to stop McFadden and frustrate Campbell on defense. I know that they should, but I can't seem to completely convince myself that they will. I was supremely confident heading into the home date against the Raiders last season and that didn't work out so well.

Then, I guess, the other problem is that I'm not sure what my lack of confidence means. Does it mean that the Steelers will win because I'm not overconfident and they're focused on avoiding a collapse? Or does it mean that they will lose because my gut's right and the other shoe is going to drop? Do I predict a loss and hope my prediction is wrong being that I've been wrong most of the season? I predicted a loss last week and was right, but I actually thought the Steelers were going to win. Does that mean I should predict a win so that I'm right even though I think they're probably going to lose? Does it really matter what I think and predict?

So many questions.

The thing is that I only know the answer to one of those questions. The answer to that one is: No, it doesn't matter what I think and predict. Therefore...

Prediction:
Steelers 35, Raiders 14

Steelers-Patriots Review

There are two silver linings, as I see it. The first is that, under NFL guidelines, the Steelers will only be charged with one loss for Sunday night's game. Even though they performed worse than bad, they can still only get one loss from that game. They can't get like a loss and a tie or a credit for another loss that strikes a future win off the books or anything. Just one loss, so that's good. They deserve two or three for that performance, but they are only on the books for one.

The other good news is that everyone else in the division lost, so it's not like the Steelers lost any ground in the division. They may have had their confidence shattered and many fans may still be shell-shocked -- I know I was still pretty angry about the game as of last night, but I'm feeling less angry today -- but, as far as the division standings are concerned, basically nothing happened last week.

Other thoughts are not quite so optimistic. The Steelers just played very, very poorly on Sunday night. There weren't serious problems with their scheme, the Patriots did not provide the rest of the league with a "blueprint" to beat the Steelers, it was just a horrid performance on all fronts. The good news there is that, hopefully, the Steelers can just put the game behind them and focus on this week. There aren't wholesale changes that need to be made to the systems on offense and defense. The bad news there is that the, "Hey, guys, do you think you could just play better? Like, a lot better?" strategy doesn't usually work. Either the players play well or they don't. Just saying, "Play better," a lot doesn't make them better. If that worked, then there would be no bad teams in the league.

The Steelers aren't a bad team by any stretch. They're just not executing well of late on offense and defense. They've had a bunch of injuries and the offensive line may not be able to recover. The defensive line misses Aaron Smith and Brett Kiesel in a big way. The offense, in general, is pretty broken and maybe thinking that throwing Ben Roethlisberger back in there would fix everything was like having a child to try to save a bad marriage. Losing Max Starks hurts the team, but at least they're getting healthier at all positions.

The defense didn't fall apart or start sucking overnight, they just didn't play well on Sunday. The idea that the way to beat the Steelers is to abandon the running game and pick them apart in the passing game underneath is not a new idea. Various teams -- especially the Patriots -- have used this strategy very effectively since the turn of the century. Many of the guys the Steelers have on defense have been in the line-up since the turn of the century, so it's unrealistic to think that their odds of actually stopping that strategy would improve with age.

They did a great job of not getting beat deep and punishing receivers underneath in 2008. They did a decent job on that front for most of 2009. The first few games this year, they did an exceptional job. Now, either they're starting to show their age, the injuries are starting to catch up with them, or both.

They're an old team that doesn't have a lot of quality depth. We knew that coming in, but we didn't know if key injuries were going to strike key positions and when those injuries were going to hit. Well, we're only nine games in and there have already been a couple, with the most notable ones to Smith and Starks.

I'm not declaring that the season is over, but I do think that all us Steeler fans now need to adjust our expectations for the season. When they started out hot, the defense looked unstoppable, and we just needed to wait for Ben to come back to have a complete team, a home playoff game and a first round bye looked realistic. They're still well-positioned and they still have three division games left on the schedule to create some separation, but Sunday night really hurt their chances. They also need to recover from the injuries they've suffered thus far and the reserves need to step up now that they're starters. They need to avoid more key injuries, which is pretty much impossible.

All of these things could conceivably happen. This team could have learned a thing or two from their collapse last season. But, they could be waiting for the other shoe to drop. They could have psyched themselves out so bad trying to avoid a collapse that a collapse is now unavoidable.

November is when you either start to pull away and establish yourself or when you collapse. In 2008, the Steelers pulled away and established. In 2009, they collapsed. I'm not sure what 2010 holds in store for the team, but I would put better odds on a collapse (with more injuries) than I would on a pull away/establish.

Regardless of whether or not they make the playoffs, this is not a complete team at this point. They are a damaged, splintered team and the AFC is too stacked on too many fronts for them to get very far in the playoffs, even if they were to make it. That could change if some pieces come together and reserves step up, but I doubt that it will happen. I'm obviously hoping that it will happen, but it's doubtful.

My father in-law thinks that they're done. He sees another late-season collapse and his official prediction is 9-7, with the Steelers missing the playoffs. Now that it's on the Internet, it's written in stone. I intend to hold him to that prediction, regardless of what happens.

I would say that 9-7 or 10-6 is a fair prediction at this point. But, I guess we'll see.

In other news, the Steelers cut Jeff Reed. I know he was having a bad season thus far, he was inconsistent at best, and he was 0 for 4 from 40-49 yards, which is a range where he's usually automatic. But... I keep thinking they cut him because of his mouth and his antics, not his foot. Sure, I guess there's a joke in there about him putting his foot in his mouth, but we're better than that.

I think it's a mistake for the balance of the season, but I also think that it's going to turn out to be a good move in the long term. Even though he was in a funk this year, he was still about as reliable as any other kicker in the league at Heinz Field, if not more accurate. The Steelers are going to be involved in more close games and they play four of their next seven at home (where they're surprisingly 2-2 and 4-1 on the road). They could've used Reed's accuracy and familiarity with Heinz Field for the rest of the year, then cut him loose at the end of the season.

Suisham -- I ended up Googling just his last name because I couldn't remember if his first name was Shawn, Shaun, or Todd -- isn't an improvement over Reed. He doesn't have a reputation as a clutch kicker and he doesn't have as much experience at Heinz Field. I mean, no one has as much experience at Heinz Field as Reed, but Suisham has played most of his career in the NFC, so he has less than a lot of guys that are out there.

He turns 29 in December, so maybe this is a decent long term move if he works out. I just don't think he's going to work out well enough for it to be worth it long term. So, in addtion to questions about the offensive line, whether or not Hines Ward will retire, whether or not half the defense will retire, and the whereabouts of Roethlisberger's penis, the 2011 offseason will involve the added question of who the Steelers will pick up to replace Reed.

I'm thinking it's a Vulva situation and they draft some dude in the fourth or fifth round. That's a good long term solution if that guy works out and it's a pretty crappy next few years -- Kris Brown, I'm looking at you -- if the guy doesn't.

I guess we will see.

Steelers-Patriots Preview

I'm not sure what to make of this game.

On the one hand, the Patriots aren't the same offense since they traded Randy Moss. They're more of a short passing team that doesn't have a deep threat, so the defense isn't afraid to crowd the line of scrimmage. The Steelers have gotten considerably better at crowding the line -- Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden are more comfortable playing tighter on the receiver than they are giving up a cushion and they're more effective that way -- and they haven't had given up tons of yards underneath over the past three seasons. Tom Brady used to shred the Steelers by dinking and dunking his was down the field, but I don't think he can do that Sunday night.

On the other hand, the NFL has been big on fining James Harrison and he's really the enforcer underneath. Receivers know that he will straight up murder them if they get near him. But, with all the fines he's had to pay, he's playing with less intensity. I think that Lawrence Timmons can still get the job of enforcer done, but Harrison's much better at it. In addition, Brady has used the short pass/smart decisions strategy to crush the Steelers defense again and again this season. Teams realize that they can't run against the Steelers, so they just throw it. Brady has no problems keeping at it until the defense flinches and his receivers start getting tons of yards after the catch.

On the one hand, the New England defense kinda sucks. They have smart, savvy players, but they used to have a bunch of smart, savvy players that were actually good. Right now? They're kinda just smart and savvy. So, they'll make a big play when they need to with the game on the line, but they won't be able to out-execute many people play-to-play.

On the other hand, that means that the Steelers actually need to execute, which has been an issue. If they can execute on offense, I think they'll be able to gain yards in chunks, which is how Bruce Arians likes it. But, Bill Belichick's strategy on defense is to take away an offense's two best weapons and make the other guys beat him. That means Mike Wallace and Rashard Mendenhall will be taken out of the game and Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and, Randle-El need to win this game. Can they do it? Sure, anything's possible through Jesus. But... likely? Not as much.

On the one hand, the Patriots got crushed by Cleveland last week. Crushed. By Cleveland. Now, the Browns are starting to look like a better team, but they're still the Browns. Good teams don't get smoked by Cleveland by 20 points.

On the other hand, it didn't work out so well for the Steelers the last time they played someone on a Sunday night that got smoked by Cleveland the previous week. If Bruce Arians and Dick LeBeau try what worked for the Browns last week, New England will have already adjusted and it won't work. The Patriots players are super angry about what happened in Week 9 and they've been working all week to fix it. New England is not the kind of team that loses in back to back weeks.

On the one hand, the Steelers have a pretty big special teams advantage, which is weird to say. Emmanuel Sanders is starting to look like a decent return guy, we have Vulva, and our coverage guys are significantly better than their counterparts on the Patriots.

On the other hand, Jeff Reed has been inconsistent to say the least. This is going to be a tight game and the Steelers are going to need to count on his right leg. Can they? I'm not sure.

On the one hand, the line opened at 5 and is now at 4.5, so not a lot of people are taking the Patriots. Seven of eight of the experts on ESPN.com picked the Steelers over the Pats.

On the other hand, when I was talking to Weidman and Topher about this last night at the bar, we had two predictions for the Steelers and one for the Patriots. With three homers in attendance, there should have been three for the Steelers, but by a low margin of victory. And... I should have been more confident in my pick. That's below, but here's one other thing to consider...

I think this is going to be a tight game, but I think the crowd is going to be the difference. At the Baltimore game, people were crazy ba-nuts insane and that was Week 4. After the Steelers had played three of their first four at home. Tomorrow night? You'll have 65,000 drunk yinzers -- myself and Weidman included -- that will have had all day to pre-game and haven't been able to see a Steelers home game in a month. In an entire month. Plus 65,000 drunk, crazy yinzers. Against the Patriots. Both teams are 6-2 and most Steeler fans hate the Patriots about as much as they hate the hated Ravens. They are going to be fired up. Fired up is probably not an apt description and falls way short, so they are going to be super duper crazy insane ba-nuts fired up on a stick. I think they carry the team to victory.

On the one hand, I'm going to the game and I'm 12-3 over my lifetime.

On the other hand, I'm 2-3 in my last five games, which is not exactly awesome.

On the one hand, I predicted the exact score of the Cleveland game.

On the other hand, my predictions have sucked hard this year. When I've predicted a win, the Steelers have lost. When I've predicted a loss, the Steelers have won.

So, even though I think the crowd will carry the Steelers to victory, I need to do my part.

Prediction:
Patriots 28, Steelers 24

Steelers-Bengals Preview

This game scares the hell out of me.

Sure, the Bengals are only 2-5 against (basically) common opponents, but they beat the hated Ravens and they're sixth in the league in passing. The Steelers are 25th at defending the pass.

It's true that Cincinnati has gained a lot of those yards in garbage time, but they still gained them. They have two really great receivers in the venerable duo of Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. Ike Taylor usually owns Ochocinco, regardless of what his last name is, and the Steelers have been fairly able to stop Owens in the past.

If they put Troy on Owens and he has the same kind of game he had when the two faced each other in the Eagles game in 2004, then that means that the Steelers have a good shot of stopping the Bengals passing game and they have a good chance of winning.

The Cincinnati defense has been pretty craptastic thus far this year, so that should help the Steelers offense. Their cornerbacks have been banged up and their front seven hasn't been as impressive this season as it was the past two seasons. If the Steelers can run the ball and Roethlisberger has enough time to throw, then maybe they can score enough points to pull one out.

This is not a game where they can score 10, 15, 14, or 19 points and still win, so they need to do a better job in the red zone and near the goal line. If they get touchdowns instead of field goals when they get close, they'll be able to score enough points to win.

The problem there is that the Bengals are going to be more fired up and determined than the Saints were last week... and they have another edge.

The big things that scare the hell out of me...

1. This is the third road game in a row for the Steelers. With all the rhetoric about how it's just another game and players don't care where they play, they'd rather have had a home game in there somewhere. Having home games, aside from being able to play in front of fans that support you, also allows you to stay in your routine. Routine is very important to these guys. All this flying around from place to place and practicing in strange places has to be wearing on them at this point. This is the factor that scares me the least, but I think it's definitely a factor.

2. This is a trap game. Last week, the Steelers played the defending champs. Next week, they play New England in another prime time game. This rivalry is way more important to the Bengals than it is to the Steelers. The Bengals don't get a lot of opportunities to play on Monday night and they'll want to make a big splash. They're at home. They are going to be super fired up.

The Steelers have faced a super fired up Bengals team in the past and dispatched them, but they went 0-2 against the super fired up Bengals last season. Recent history says that they'll be too much for the Steelers.

On top of that, the Bengals are a much better second half team than they are a first half team. If they come out fired up and can sustain that, then the Steelers will have their hands full, which will probably translate into a loss.

3. The Bengals were built and designed to beat the Steelers and the hated Ravens. At some point, Marvin Lewis said to himself, "Pittsburgh and Baltimore are pretty good teams. If we can beat them twice a year each, then pencil in two wins over Cleveland, we only need to win three or four other games a year to make the playoffs." That's a made up thought, but it has been documented that the Bengals built their team and their scheme around beating the Steelers and the hated Ravens.

It's tough enough to win a game on Monday night on the road against a hungry division opponent, but it's even tougher when they're specifically designed to beat you.

That factor, plus everything else in play, makes me think the Steelers won't pull this one out.

I've said before that September is where you set yourself up, October is where you start to define your identity, and November is where the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders. Thus far this season, the Steelers have looked pretty damn good. Almost halfway through, they look like one of the better teams in the NFL. Right now, they look like a contender.

With Monday night's game and a big game against the Patriots next week, they can position themselves well with two wins. After that, they have a suddenly feisty Raiders team, then Buffalo. An undefeated November would establish them as a legitimate contender and position them to rain Hell in December.

The Saints game was a letdown, but the Steelers have another shot to prove that they're for real.

Unfortunately, I don't think they're going to take that shot.

Prediction:

Bengals 28, Steelers 24

Steelers-Saints Review

A loss always sucks. The silver lining is that it's a non-conference loss, so it doesn't count as much. The hated Ravens sit atop the AFC North, but that's only based on a head-to-head win. They still have more conference losses.

You can't pin this loss on Heath Miller. The man has gained countless yards the past few years fighting for that extra inch. I don't want him giving up those inches because he thinks he might fumble. Having said that, he still needs to wrap up the ball in the closing minutes.

You can't pin it on the defense. They held the New Orleans Saints -- there was a graphic during the telecast that said that the Saints have averaged 26.7 points per game since 2006 -- to 20 points, which is below their average. You could argue that they could have stepped up after the Miller fumble and held the Saints to a field goal, but New Orleans would still have won 16-10.

I think that you can pin this on the offense. You can't score ten points and think that you're going to beat the Saints. You might be able to get away with that kind of output against Tampa or Cleveland, but New Orleans is going to score, so you need to keep pace.

I said in the Preview that the Saints were going to blitz and that Ben Roethlisberger was going to make more big plays than dumb mistakes. The issue was that the Steelers weren't prepared for the blitz.

Now, I'm just some idiot with a blog that has six loyal readers and gets 300 click-throughs a month from drunk yinzers that are looking for "porn n at". If I know that the blitz is coming -- and the Saints blitzed seven or eight guys on a few occasions and brought six guys numerous times -- then the Steelers coaches should have been prepared. I understand that Roethlisberger is comfortable with the offense, but, if you're Bruce Arians, you may want to have a review session with your quarterback and receivers regarding hot reads before the game. As far as I could tell, no such review session was conducted.

So, we basically, as Steeler fans, need to come to grips with the fact that either Arians or Tomlin is bad at making in-game adjustments. I may have said this before, but that explains why the offense gets a sudden "spark" when Roethlisberger goes into the two-minute, no huddle offense. He's calling plays at the line of scrimmage, adjusting to what he sees from the defense on the fly. The defense, having game planned to stop a certain scheme with certain tendencies, has no way to react. Thus, Roethlisberger, making in-game adjustments, is successful.

This great scheme, poor in-game factor would help to explain why the Steelers can't score from six inches out with three downs to play. It would help to explain why the Steelers didn't call a draw play on third and 20 in long field goal range in the first half. My buddy Joel and I discussed this -- the draw play in that situation is so predictable that I said, "Draw play," before the ball was snapped and was surprised that I was wrong -- but the draw play is the most logical call in that situation. You know that you're going to get something, even if it's only two or three yards, but you move yourself closer and you put your kicker in a better position. Instead, Arians called a standard play in an attempt to gain the full 20 yards and failed. The kick was no good, which cannot be pinned on Jeff Reed.

This would help explain why the Steelers didn't go play action after they were stuffed on their first attempt to punch it in from six inches out. It would also explain why Roethlisberger -- in a league that is hyper-sensitive about helmet-to-helmet fines and always looks to protect their quarterbacks -- didn't just try to sneak it across the line.

Arians has created an excellent system based on the talent at hand. Ben Roethlisberger is better at running that system than Dennis Dixon, Charlie Batch, or Byron Leftwich. He will keep running that system even if it doesn't work. As Steeler fans, that is the contract that we entered into.

Hopefully the system works better against the Bengals next week.