The problem with this game -- and the remainder of the season -- is that it's difficult/going to be difficult to predict with any degree of accuracy what the Steelers are going to do.
I know that the Raiders are doing better thus far this season than they've done in any nine game stretch to open up the year since 2002. I know that Oakland is the only team that Ben Roethlisberger has never beaten. I know that the Raiders are more talented this year than they've been since 2002.
But, they're still not as good as the Steelers, even with the injuries. Some guys are starting to come back and the guys that are subbing in for the guys on injured reserve have had some time to adjust to a starting role. The Steelers aren't as talented a team as they were in 2008, or maybe even 2009, but they're still more talented than Oakland.
Then there's the fact that everyone's talking about New England giving the rest of the league the "blueprint" for how to beat the Steelers. Well, I think I mentioned in the review for the Patriots game that that's been the blueprint since approximately December 2001. Some teams can use that blueprint because they have the right personnel, some teams cannot. And, in general, New England kicked the Steelers butts all over the field and played considerably better on Sunday night. So... if you're going to say they discovered the blueprint, then the blueprint is really that the way to beat the Steelers is to play way better than them on offense and defense. Taking that the rest of the way, really the blueprint for any team to beat any other team is to play better on offense and defense. It's not really a special thing, it's kind of what every team tries to do.
Still, if you're going to say that the way to beat the Steelers is to spread out the offense and pass the ball 75 percent of the time, then the Raiders just don't have the horses. They have Jason Campbell, not Tom Brady. They have Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bay, not Deion Branch and Wes Welker. They have Zach Miller, not Rob Gronkowski. Maybe not that last one, since Miller's actually better than Gronkowski, but you wouldn't be able to tell that on Sunday night.
Most of Oakland's offense revolves around Darren McFadden and their resurgence as a team this season has gone in line with his resurgence as a player. Historically -- and thus far this season -- any team that needs to run the ball for their offense to work hasn't done well against the Steelers. They're really, really tough to run against, so Campbell is going to have to win the game pretty much on his own. That's possible but not likely.
The Raiders are 24th in the league against the run on defense. The Steelers haven't been able to run the ball well since Week 3, but Week 3 was also the last time that everything was clicking on offense. They kind of padded their stats against Cleveland with a late touchdown, but they still scored 28 points and Mendenhall still rushed for 84 yards. They need to run the ball to set up play action and establish balance on offense in order score a sufficient number of points to win. They scored a sufficient number of points on Sunday night, but they still lost badly because they allowed 39 points on defense.
I don't think Oakland has it in them to score 39 points against the Steelers tomorrow. I just don't. Again, not saying it's not possible, just not bloody likely.
All week, the players and Tomlin have been talking about how they don't want to repeat last year's collapse. Sunday is a good chance for them to back that claim up. There are still two games left in the month of November and the next game is against the 1-8 Bills. If they finish November with two more wins, then the season will be less on the brink, they'll be more confident, and maybe they can finish strong. A loss on Sunday would not kill the season, but it would certainly put it on life support.
My big problem, though, is that I know that the Steelers should be able to run the ball, set up the pass, and score points on offense. I know that they should be able to stop McFadden and frustrate Campbell on defense. I know that they should, but I can't seem to completely convince myself that they will. I was supremely confident heading into the home date against the Raiders last season and that didn't work out so well.
Then, I guess, the other problem is that I'm not sure what my lack of confidence means. Does it mean that the Steelers will win because I'm not overconfident and they're focused on avoiding a collapse? Or does it mean that they will lose because my gut's right and the other shoe is going to drop? Do I predict a loss and hope my prediction is wrong being that I've been wrong most of the season? I predicted a loss last week and was right, but I actually thought the Steelers were going to win. Does that mean I should predict a win so that I'm right even though I think they're probably going to lose? Does it really matter what I think and predict?
So many questions.
The thing is that I only know the answer to one of those questions. The answer to that one is: No, it doesn't matter what I think and predict. Therefore...
Prediction:
Steelers 35, Raiders 14
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