Steelers-Bengals Preview

This game scares the hell out of me.

Sure, the Bengals are only 2-5 against (basically) common opponents, but they beat the hated Ravens and they're sixth in the league in passing. The Steelers are 25th at defending the pass.

It's true that Cincinnati has gained a lot of those yards in garbage time, but they still gained them. They have two really great receivers in the venerable duo of Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. Ike Taylor usually owns Ochocinco, regardless of what his last name is, and the Steelers have been fairly able to stop Owens in the past.

If they put Troy on Owens and he has the same kind of game he had when the two faced each other in the Eagles game in 2004, then that means that the Steelers have a good shot of stopping the Bengals passing game and they have a good chance of winning.

The Cincinnati defense has been pretty craptastic thus far this year, so that should help the Steelers offense. Their cornerbacks have been banged up and their front seven hasn't been as impressive this season as it was the past two seasons. If the Steelers can run the ball and Roethlisberger has enough time to throw, then maybe they can score enough points to pull one out.

This is not a game where they can score 10, 15, 14, or 19 points and still win, so they need to do a better job in the red zone and near the goal line. If they get touchdowns instead of field goals when they get close, they'll be able to score enough points to win.

The problem there is that the Bengals are going to be more fired up and determined than the Saints were last week... and they have another edge.

The big things that scare the hell out of me...

1. This is the third road game in a row for the Steelers. With all the rhetoric about how it's just another game and players don't care where they play, they'd rather have had a home game in there somewhere. Having home games, aside from being able to play in front of fans that support you, also allows you to stay in your routine. Routine is very important to these guys. All this flying around from place to place and practicing in strange places has to be wearing on them at this point. This is the factor that scares me the least, but I think it's definitely a factor.

2. This is a trap game. Last week, the Steelers played the defending champs. Next week, they play New England in another prime time game. This rivalry is way more important to the Bengals than it is to the Steelers. The Bengals don't get a lot of opportunities to play on Monday night and they'll want to make a big splash. They're at home. They are going to be super fired up.

The Steelers have faced a super fired up Bengals team in the past and dispatched them, but they went 0-2 against the super fired up Bengals last season. Recent history says that they'll be too much for the Steelers.

On top of that, the Bengals are a much better second half team than they are a first half team. If they come out fired up and can sustain that, then the Steelers will have their hands full, which will probably translate into a loss.

3. The Bengals were built and designed to beat the Steelers and the hated Ravens. At some point, Marvin Lewis said to himself, "Pittsburgh and Baltimore are pretty good teams. If we can beat them twice a year each, then pencil in two wins over Cleveland, we only need to win three or four other games a year to make the playoffs." That's a made up thought, but it has been documented that the Bengals built their team and their scheme around beating the Steelers and the hated Ravens.

It's tough enough to win a game on Monday night on the road against a hungry division opponent, but it's even tougher when they're specifically designed to beat you.

That factor, plus everything else in play, makes me think the Steelers won't pull this one out.

I've said before that September is where you set yourself up, October is where you start to define your identity, and November is where the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders. Thus far this season, the Steelers have looked pretty damn good. Almost halfway through, they look like one of the better teams in the NFL. Right now, they look like a contender.

With Monday night's game and a big game against the Patriots next week, they can position themselves well with two wins. After that, they have a suddenly feisty Raiders team, then Buffalo. An undefeated November would establish them as a legitimate contender and position them to rain Hell in December.

The Saints game was a letdown, but the Steelers have another shot to prove that they're for real.

Unfortunately, I don't think they're going to take that shot.

Prediction:

Bengals 28, Steelers 24