Steelers-Patriots Preview

I'm not sure what to make of this game.

On the one hand, the Patriots aren't the same offense since they traded Randy Moss. They're more of a short passing team that doesn't have a deep threat, so the defense isn't afraid to crowd the line of scrimmage. The Steelers have gotten considerably better at crowding the line -- Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden are more comfortable playing tighter on the receiver than they are giving up a cushion and they're more effective that way -- and they haven't had given up tons of yards underneath over the past three seasons. Tom Brady used to shred the Steelers by dinking and dunking his was down the field, but I don't think he can do that Sunday night.

On the other hand, the NFL has been big on fining James Harrison and he's really the enforcer underneath. Receivers know that he will straight up murder them if they get near him. But, with all the fines he's had to pay, he's playing with less intensity. I think that Lawrence Timmons can still get the job of enforcer done, but Harrison's much better at it. In addition, Brady has used the short pass/smart decisions strategy to crush the Steelers defense again and again this season. Teams realize that they can't run against the Steelers, so they just throw it. Brady has no problems keeping at it until the defense flinches and his receivers start getting tons of yards after the catch.

On the one hand, the New England defense kinda sucks. They have smart, savvy players, but they used to have a bunch of smart, savvy players that were actually good. Right now? They're kinda just smart and savvy. So, they'll make a big play when they need to with the game on the line, but they won't be able to out-execute many people play-to-play.

On the other hand, that means that the Steelers actually need to execute, which has been an issue. If they can execute on offense, I think they'll be able to gain yards in chunks, which is how Bruce Arians likes it. But, Bill Belichick's strategy on defense is to take away an offense's two best weapons and make the other guys beat him. That means Mike Wallace and Rashard Mendenhall will be taken out of the game and Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and, Randle-El need to win this game. Can they do it? Sure, anything's possible through Jesus. But... likely? Not as much.

On the one hand, the Patriots got crushed by Cleveland last week. Crushed. By Cleveland. Now, the Browns are starting to look like a better team, but they're still the Browns. Good teams don't get smoked by Cleveland by 20 points.

On the other hand, it didn't work out so well for the Steelers the last time they played someone on a Sunday night that got smoked by Cleveland the previous week. If Bruce Arians and Dick LeBeau try what worked for the Browns last week, New England will have already adjusted and it won't work. The Patriots players are super angry about what happened in Week 9 and they've been working all week to fix it. New England is not the kind of team that loses in back to back weeks.

On the one hand, the Steelers have a pretty big special teams advantage, which is weird to say. Emmanuel Sanders is starting to look like a decent return guy, we have Vulva, and our coverage guys are significantly better than their counterparts on the Patriots.

On the other hand, Jeff Reed has been inconsistent to say the least. This is going to be a tight game and the Steelers are going to need to count on his right leg. Can they? I'm not sure.

On the one hand, the line opened at 5 and is now at 4.5, so not a lot of people are taking the Patriots. Seven of eight of the experts on ESPN.com picked the Steelers over the Pats.

On the other hand, when I was talking to Weidman and Topher about this last night at the bar, we had two predictions for the Steelers and one for the Patriots. With three homers in attendance, there should have been three for the Steelers, but by a low margin of victory. And... I should have been more confident in my pick. That's below, but here's one other thing to consider...

I think this is going to be a tight game, but I think the crowd is going to be the difference. At the Baltimore game, people were crazy ba-nuts insane and that was Week 4. After the Steelers had played three of their first four at home. Tomorrow night? You'll have 65,000 drunk yinzers -- myself and Weidman included -- that will have had all day to pre-game and haven't been able to see a Steelers home game in a month. In an entire month. Plus 65,000 drunk, crazy yinzers. Against the Patriots. Both teams are 6-2 and most Steeler fans hate the Patriots about as much as they hate the hated Ravens. They are going to be fired up. Fired up is probably not an apt description and falls way short, so they are going to be super duper crazy insane ba-nuts fired up on a stick. I think they carry the team to victory.

On the one hand, I'm going to the game and I'm 12-3 over my lifetime.

On the other hand, I'm 2-3 in my last five games, which is not exactly awesome.

On the one hand, I predicted the exact score of the Cleveland game.

On the other hand, my predictions have sucked hard this year. When I've predicted a win, the Steelers have lost. When I've predicted a loss, the Steelers have won.

So, even though I think the crowd will carry the Steelers to victory, I need to do my part.

Prediction:
Patriots 28, Steelers 24